EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[idliman]

Man I love the optimistic and positive outlook here.
I gave up long time as I feel even if there is a chance for CO to move dates for EB2I with so many pre adjudicated cases they hardly moved the dates. When every common person is expecting there may be around 40K visas available for use because of consular offices closure, I feel there is no intent to clear or use the numbers or visas available. And when there is no intent no matter what we try to calculate or predict, there will always be an outliner to support what CO wants to do.

I did not want to say anything when the DF for EB2I is 15AUG09. It kind of indirectly says that we expect the FA to be that day at the end of 2021. I would love to hear from folks that still claim that DOS and USCIS are fair and doing it per book. It looks like some people in this forum still believe in that. If someone still thinks that they can calculate the EB2I movements, kindly spill your wisdom. I strongly believe that the system is rigged against EB2I for whatever reason. Unfortunately EB2I had manged to cultivate enemies (in DOS or USCIS or admin) that hate us with a passion.

I don't think Stephen Miller visits this blog. If he has got the spare time, then more power to him.

I have been trying to not get into politically charged discussions, especially when I don't have the right to vote. However, I sincerely wish that the Citizens vote for a change on 03NOV2020. Without that, I don't think EB2I in 2009 / 2010 has any hope of forward movement. Peace.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

My 2c on this is that, there is no grand scheme to block Indians from getting GCs. I seriously doubt Miller as any time to personally interject into USCIS/DoS to skew visa allocations. What is happening is pure incompetence based on literally not having any clue as to how to process the thousands of application with many competing issues - political, covid, random bans and rescinding of bans - muslim ban, now probably china ban, consulates closing and opening, financial issues, confusing bureaucracy/inconsistency of adjudication process etc.

I mean think about it, we are probably all majority engineers in this forum. How long will it take to get a good list of anyone who has ever applied in EB and is pending and rank them by order of priority date, country of birth, filing status (EB2/3, or both) using basi charts/pivot tables? I mean some of us probably deal with datasets that are 10x or 20x that size in our daily jobs and are able to use Excel, SQL, Oracle or any number of tools that are widely available. And they still can't provide us with a pending inventory of I-485s.

So that's where we are now. The greatest country in the world can't do this basic thing with all it's technological prowess - can't provide guaranteed income to it's citizens in the middle of a massive pandemic, can't provide guaranteed healthcare to its citizens, can't formulate a unified and coherent response against the health emergency to guide it's people and thinks it's ok to adopt gestapo style tactics to beat up it's own citizens.

This too shall pass.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

https://www.appropriations.senate.go...nned-furloughs

Hopefully the pressure builds up on USCIS to do it's damn job.

[eb2visa]

One mystery I don't understand is how the China dated moved when India eb2 didn't moved a single day? Is it means they are using any small spill over to China???

[longwaitgigu]

I am new to all this calculation and predictions.
My spouse is very optimistic we will be currnet- oct 2010 in eb3 atleast for DOF in 3 or 4 months.
Which I dont believe after looking at bulletin and predictions. I hope I am wrong.
Its mystery - if uscis is saying there are processing delays and not enough staff.
Why eb1 india dates r moved almost 8 months and eb2, eb3 China r moved too.
R they really trying to screw eb2 and eb3 india( by manipulating eb2 to downgrade)
Why r we not getting exact information or numbers ( if they manipulate wouldn't CO have to answer in court if sued). It is federal immigration crime to severely punish one country when the law is to give SO to the most backlogged country.
I am 100% at this, if dates for eb2 and eb3 ( DOF) atleast dont touch 2010 end, there is conspiracy behind this which can only be proven if sued.

[EB2IndSep09]

One mystery I don't understand is how the China dated moved when India eb2 didn't moved a single day? Is it means they are using any small spill over to China???

It is simple demand and supply rule. There is heavy demand in EB2I (At least a fake one created due to the incompetence of the firms or the unknown grey area due to the porting of EB3 to EB2).
This has been well utilized to s***w EB2I. I was hoping to file AOS at least this year. Seems the odds are against my PD.

[smuggymba]

My 2c on this is that, there is no grand scheme to block Indians from getting GCs.

There's no grand scheme; it's a well established and well oiled ongoing process.

[qesehmk]

There's no grand scheme; it's a well established and well oiled ongoing process.

Precisely. And that is why it is called "Systemic Bias". It means there is no one single person orchestrating this bias. Rather multiple actors at multiple levels who execute such bias and/or vested in such bias.

[redtogreen]

My 2c on this is that, there is no grand scheme to block Indians from getting GCs. I seriously doubt Miller as any time to personally interject into USCIS/DoS to skew visa allocations. What is happening is pure incompetence based on literally not having any clue as to how to process the thousands of application with many competing issues - political, covid, random bans and rescinding of bans - muslim ban, now probably china ban, consulates closing and opening, financial issues, confusing bureaucracy/inconsistency of adjudication process etc.

I mean think about it, we are probably all majority engineers in this forum. How long will it take to get a good list of anyone who has ever applied in EB and is pending and rank them by order of priority date, country of birth, filing status (EB2/3, or both) using basi charts/pivot tables? I mean some of us probably deal with datasets that are 10x or 20x that size in our daily jobs and are able to use Excel, SQL, Oracle or any number of tools that are widely available. And they still can't provide us with a pending inventory of I-485s.

So that's where we are now. The greatest country in the world can't do this basic thing with all it's technological prowess - can't provide guaranteed income to it's citizens in the middle of a massive pandemic, can't provide guaranteed healthcare to its citizens, can't formulate a unified and coherent response against the health emergency to guide it's people and thinks it's ok to adopt gestapo style tactics to beat up it's own citizens.

This too shall pass.

True that! There may not be a full blown conspiracy against EB2I but there definitely is a stepmotherly treatment. CO does not have good news for EB2I in any of his check-in calls, ppl who are current are facing the slowest processing times, the expected SO FY20 did not happen. Something is systematically wrong somewhere. Yes, we can also attribute it to fallacies like furloughs etc., and other in-built issues like porting,eb1c. However it looks like we are stuck in a forever limbo.

[Immigo]

True that! There may not be a full blown conspiracy against EB2I but there definitely is a stepmotherly treatment. CO does not have good news for EB2I in any of his check-in calls, ppl who are current are facing the slowest processing times, the expected SO FY20 did not happen. Something is systematically wrong somewhere. Yes, we can also attribute it to fallacies like furloughs etc., and other in-built issues like porting,eb1c. However it looks like we are stuck in a forever limbo.

Is it possible to sue DOS for discrimination against EB2-I, given they did not move dates even though 25k visas will be wasted ? Same reason was used to make dates current in 2007.

[rabp77]

Is it possible to sue DOS for discrimination against EB2-I, given they did not move dates even though 25k visas will be wasted ? Same reason was used to make dates current in 2007.

I personally don't think that helps. Better option may be to write to your state senator and house rep informing them about this wastage at a time the are asking for money and people have followed all rules and laws and are still stuck in decade long back logs.

[rabp77]

If there is no RFE so far and your date is going to be current next month, then I would think your case ready to grant a visa (i.e. GC). Good luck!

Thank you Q. You are a wealth of information.

[jimmys]

https://www.appropriations.senate.go...nned-furloughs

Hopefully the pressure builds up on USCIS to do it's damn job.

This is definitely a welcome news for me since I'm current in Aug.

[rabp77]

This is definitely a welcome news for me since I'm current in Aug.

Congratulations Jimmys. great to hear that. Its good news not just for you, but for everyone.

[gcpursuit]

I have been current in July (EB2I) and didnt receive any RFE so far ( TSC) - my medicals are not valid anymore. I filed 485J in early April and it is still pending. Should I just wait till 485J gets approved?

My lawyer says we can't do anything like creating a SR. Should I reach out to Senator or Congressman to get some traction or just wait. If I have to wait, how long should I wait before involving the congressman/senator? Any thoughts? Appreciate it.

[Crypto]

Don't stress out. It's around the corner. Don't open a case if they say so. Just contact your senator or congressman.

I guess this explain the reason why not many people who became current in last couple of bulletin may have not heard any thing regarding there card process:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...dc8_story.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/22/polit...ion/index.html

[longwaitgigu]

https://www.forbes.com/v/s/www.forbe...KAGwASDYAQE%3D

[longwaitgigu]

This is wrong link

[alpha0]

If i recall, AC21 was passed in 2000 (last year of Clinton) alongwith h1b increase from 65k to 195k for some time.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

If i recall, AC21 was passed in 2000 (last year of Clinton) alongwith h1b increase from 65k to 195k for some time.

Yes, you are right on! AC21 was passed in 2000, apologies for the oversight.

[idliman]

Changing up the topic from doom & gloom; There are some bright spots.

1. Many of the corporate offices have closed and become fully remote. In that setting how can one post "Notice of Filing" for PERM? As it is a legal requirement, It may not be possible to do PERM till the offices are opened. The Covid situation should bring down the ROW demand and some positive impact might be seen in 2021 itself. Are your companies doing PERM now or has it completely stopped?
   
2. If the second stimulus has house wording (Re. Meng) on carrying over spillover, then we may still have 25K additional visa's next year.
   
3. Expectation is that Trump's new EO will throw EB-I some breadcrumbs.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Changing up the topic from doom & gloom; There are some bright spots.

1. Many of the corporate offices have closed and become fully remote. In that setting how can one post "Notice of Filing" for PERM? As it is a legal requirement, It may not be possible to do PERM till the offices are opened. The Covid situation should bring down the ROW demand and some positive impact might be seen in 2021 itself. Are your companies doing PERM now or has it completely stopped?
   
2. If the second stimulus has house wording (Re. Meng) on carrying over spillover, then we may still have 25K additional visa's next year.
   
3. Expectation is that Trump's new EO will throw EB-I some breadcrumbs.

Siskind had just posted regarding this: Brandt Carter Atlanta DOL - Posting notice for PERM - If a business is all remote because of COVID, it's okay to post notice on exterior door.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I am also interested in understanding the effect of the worsening US-China relations on EB5. They have traditionally been the largest consumers and are coming under increasing scrutiny.

Here is one article: https://www.bloombergquint.com/polit...-5-green-cards

[longwaitgigu]

Wouldn't the demand of eb2 and eb3 china CP go down for next year?

[srimurthy]

Siskind had just posted regarding this: Brandt Carter Atlanta DOL - Posting notice for PERM - If a business is all remote because of COVID, it's okay to post notice on exterior door.

Even for H1 we were requested by the employer to post the LCA on the exterior door for 10days in May itself. So it may just be a continuation.