EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Auser123]

If CO doesn’t think the EB limits will be reached, is he preparing to waste the visas? That would be atrocious given the huge pending preadjudicated cases for EBI. If processing is taking time, why not move the dates ahead for EBI?

This way they can request/assign the numbers from this fiscal years quota for the applications and still continue to process those applications into next fiscal year.

Also, Given the slow processing, it would be better to move the dates In the next bulletin. This will give 3 months processing time for those applications. If the numbers get used up earlier, they can always make it unavailable. The other way around will only waste visas.

Quiet obvious, he is going to waste the numbers(as usual)

[rocketfast]

IMO, CO's forecast about wasting numbers, I feel it is a translation error (from Chinese to English) or transcribing error. Everything till that point, he was basically saying USCIS is on track to use up all the numbers.

USCIS has not waster EB numbers for a really long time. We can argue that he has been unfair to EB3-I a couple of times where EB3-C benefited instead. He also seemed unfair with EB2-I last year where EB2-C got 600 GCs more than EB2-I. But then again, he gave EB1-I more than its share.

Since EB2-I and EB3-I are stuck for such a long time, we feel that he needs to sympathize with us a little - which he does not seem to.

[NJMaverick]

I think we what he means is there will no longer be any horizontal numbers available for EB2I. I still do expect a few months movement on EB2I as he knows the demand. There could be visa wastage..but he still can move dates in the last 2 bulletins... its not over till its over..

[jimmys]

Since EB2-I and EB3-I are stuck for such a long time, we feel that he needs to sympathize with us a little - which he does not seem to.

We all knew EB2-I doesn't deserve any sympathy as they sued USCIS/DoS back in 2015. Why they are not moving EB3-I is the real question here. Is EB3-I being punished for EB2-I's actions?

[mahendra]

Translated by Google from a Chinese site http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Immi.../34048933.html

Is it genuine article from mitbbs.com?

Recent AILA posting: https://www.aila.org/recent-postings
It hasn't posted CO's check-in on 5/29

[imdeng]

I think we what he means is there will no longer be any horizontal numbers available for EB2I... ...

This seems the most likely explanation given the wording.

[jimmys]

Is it genuine article from mitbbs.com?

Recent AILA posting: https://www.aila.org/recent-postings
It hasn't posted CO's check-in on 5/29

I don't think check in with CO is available for general public on AILA.org.

[Zenzone]

This seems the most likely explanation given the wording.

When did he say this?? It looks like a random article.

[idliman]

Is it genuine article from mitbbs.com?

Recent AILA posting: https://www.aila.org/recent-postings
It hasn't posted CO's check-in on 5/29

AILA website shows the following article viewable only to their members.
Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim
5/29/2020
The AILA DOS Liaison Committee provides monthly “check-ins” with Charlie Oppenheim, designed to keep members informed of Visa Bulletin progress and to obtain his analysis of current trends and future projections, beyond the basic visa availability updates provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin.
AILA Doc. No. 14071401
Note: The above number is different; The earlier article number points to the rejection of I-485 from lockbox due to expired forms (incorrectly). If the above is a true copy, in a day or two some law firms will be publishing this in their website.

[imdeng]

When did he say this?? It looks like a random article.

mitbbs has typically been a reliable source of information - there are of course issues in translation but that is to be expected.

[Zenzone]

mitbbs has typically been a reliable source of information - there are of course issues in translation but that is to be expected.

I would be very suspicious unless I hear CO directly quoted on wasting visas for EB. I choose not to freak out until then

[NJMavarick]

I would be very suspicious unless I hear CO directly quoted on wasting visas for EB. I choose not to freak out until then

The check-in with Charlie information provided is accurate! I have now got it from a different source as well:
--
EB1-3 in July: In July, Final Action Dates would advance
EB-5 India would be current in August 2020 - If this happens, then expect a decent spillover to EB1 India next year (provided FB spillover is applied).
EB-2 Worldwide: No longer the imposition of a final action date this summer.
--

Just to add what I think means that is the supply of EB visas is more than demand and what I interpret is perhaps that he is not able to gauge the horizontal spill over that is going to be available. I still see this as good news.

[140_EAD]

The check-in with Charlie information provided is accurate! I have now got it from a different source as well:
--
EB1-3 in July: In July, Final Action Dates would advance
EB-5 India would be current in August 2020 - If this happens, then expect a decent spillover to EB1 India next year (provided FB spillover is applied).
EB-2 Worldwide: No longer the imposition of a final action date this summer.
--

Just to add what I think means that is the supply of EB visas is more than demand and what I interpret is perhaps that he is not able to gauge the horizontal spill over that is going to be available. I still see this as good news.

So, is there any update on EB2-I?

[Zenzone]

The check-in with Charlie information provided is accurate! I have now got it from a different source as well:
--
EB1-3 in July: In July, Final Action Dates would advance
EB-5 India would be current in August 2020 - If this happens, then expect a decent spillover to EB1 India next year (provided FB spillover is applied).
EB-2 Worldwide: No longer the imposition of a final action date this summer.
--

Just to add what I think means that is the supply of EB visas is more than demand and what I interpret is perhaps that he is not able to gauge the horizontal spill over that is going to be available. I still see this as good news.

Thanks! So the point about visa wastage is probably a translation error indeed.

[redsox2009]

If EB1 India dates move in July then expect a big jump for EB2 and EB3 Indians. If EB3 ROW moves ahead in July or it becomes current that is any date after Jan 2020, then the India EB3 dates touching Feb 2010 is very likely.

[NJMavarick]

If EB1 India dates move in July then expect a big jump for EB2 and EB3 Indians. If EB3 ROW moves ahead in July or it becomes current that is any date after Jan 2020, then the India EB3 dates touching Feb 2010 is very likely.

EB-3 has the best chance of reaching their annual limits by September 30 - As per CO.

There will be movement for EB3 but not as drastic as I would I have hoped.

[smuggymba]

If EB1 India dates move in July then expect a big jump for EB2 and EB3 Indians. If EB3 ROW moves ahead in July or it becomes current that is any date after Jan 2020, then the India EB3 dates touching Feb 2010 is very likely.

What about EB2?

[bodhi2000]

What about EB2?

My guess, EB2-I will clear Sep-09 by end of this fiscal year.

[jimmys]

EB-3 has the best chance of reaching their annual limits by September 30 - As per CO.

There will be movement for EB3 but not as drastic as I would I have hoped.

You meant to say EB3 in total to reach its limit by September 30?

[NJMavarick]

You meant to say EB3 in total to reach its limit by September 30?

Yes. You are right

[jackus]

Yes. You are right

I understand that CO will process that EB3 quota will be used until September 30, which mean that limit may be reached. And the next Fiscal year Oct 2020 will be current again?

[mar2010er]

Please could you throw some wide ballpark estimates, just your opinion..

[jackus]

Mean that after reach and will be current in next fiscal year? CO want EB3 must be reached at the end sept 2020?

[rabp77]

Yes. You are right

NJMavarick , if you mean, EB3 without spill over to EB3-I is likely to reach its annual limit by Sept 30, that likely means its bad news for EB3-I. That would mean no horizontal spillover for EB3-I. Am i interpreting your comment correctly ?

[NJMavarick]

NJMavarick , if you mean, EB3 without spill over to EB3-I is likely to reach its annual limit by Sept 30, that likely means its bad news for EB3-I. That would mean no horizontal spillover for EB3-I. Am i interpreting your comment correctly ?

Yes. There seems to be enough demand in EB3 category so there will be no horizontal spillover. That is the reason this category is not current. There will still be movement just not as drastic as we would have hoped for.