EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[suninphx]

Guys,
Longtime reader of this blog. Just wanted to share that we received card production email this morning. Thanks to everyone here. This blog has helped me over the years. All the best everyone.

Congratulations everyone!! Feels so good to see long timers getting their freedom.

[rabp77]

Guys,
Longtime reader of this blog. Just wanted to share that we received card production email this morning. Thanks to everyone here. This blog has helped me over the years. All the best everyone.

Congratulations Tendlya. Great to hear this.

[newsletter1978]

Hello gurus, my eb2 priority is oct 29, 2009. do you think this date can be reached by fiscal end?

[rpgarimidi]

Hello Friends, My Priority date is Jun 8th 09 which is current in this months' bulletin. My medicals are 4 years old and no changes in case's status. May I know how long I can wait to get RFA for medicals? what to do in case no change to my case's status? I am planning to contact local house representative office to activate my case? Please help me on next steps.

[tendlya]

Thanks suninphx and rabp77!

[Blue_fairy]

Hello gurus, my eb2 priority is oct 29, 2009. do you think this date can be reached by fiscal end?

Heavily depends on USCIS securing a $1.2B funding from Congress. Absent that, USCIS will furlough employees starting 7/1 impacting GC and VISA processing alike.

If things stay normal (what is that these days?), my biased, and unsupported by data, view is that end of October 2009 is possible by March 2021. If it happens earlier, we both will get to party sooner; as my PD is 7th October 2009.

[imdeng]

That's wonderful news tendlya. Congratulations! It is great to see long timers getting through.

Guys,
Longtime reader of this blog. Just wanted to share that we received card production email this morning. Thanks to everyone here. This blog has helped me over the years. All the best everyone.

[idliman]

Heavily depends on USCIS securing a $1.2B funding from Congress. Absent that, USCIS will furlough employees starting 7/1 impacting GC and VISA processing alike.

If things stay normal (what is that these days?), my biased, and unsupported by data, view is that end of October 2009 is possible by March 2021. If it happens earlier, we both will get to party sooner; as my PD is 7th October 2009.

I would think that there is a good chance for both of you and entire 2009 to clear before the end of 2020. I personally hope so. A lot of things are happening such as Reduced demand from CP stoppage, FB stoppage (spillover after October), etc., that are in favor of backlogged folks. With DACA ruling in the air (God forbid another 1 million kids with their DACA EADs expiring), congress will definitely provide some funds to USCIS. What is $1.2B in the midst of trillions ($2T was spent on CARES act). DACA is going to be a big issue once the Supreme court publishes its decision. By end of this month, USCIS will let go about 1000 contracted workforce (from PAE agency) in NBC Kansas City area. NBC will have only about 180 people working mostly on family-based immigration which had a major reduction because of EO. I think USCIS had a hiring freeze and trying to re-organize staff to save cash. So, they will keep running at a reduced capacity.
Let’s be positive and optimistic.

[Blue_fairy]

I would think that there is a good chance for both of you and entire 2009 to clear before the end of 2020. I personally hope so. A lot of things are happening such as Reduced demand from CP stoppage, FB stoppage (spillover after October), etc., that are in favor of backlogged folks. With DACA ruling in the air (God forbid another 1 million kids with their DACA EADs expiring), congress will definitely provide some funds to USCIS. What is $1.2B in the midst of trillions ($2T was spent on CARES act). DACA is going to be a big issue once the Supreme court publishes its decision. By end of this month, USCIS will let go about 1000 contracted workforce (from PAE agency) in NBC Kansas City area. NBC will have only about 180 people working mostly on family-based immigration which had a major reduction because of EO. I think USCIS had a hiring freeze and trying to re-organize staff to save cash. So, they will keep running at a reduced capacity.
Let’s be positive and optimistic.

Wouldn't mind that at all!! Tired of holding the EAD since 2012.

[jimmys]

I would think that there is a good chance for both of you and entire 2009 to clear before the end of 2020. I personally hope so. A lot of things are happening such as Reduced demand from CP stoppage, FB stoppage (spillover after October), etc., that are in favor of backlogged folks. With DACA ruling in the air (God forbid another 1 million kids with their DACA EADs expiring), congress will definitely provide some funds to USCIS. What is $1.2B in the midst of trillions ($2T was spent on CARES act). DACA is going to be a big issue once the Supreme court publishes its decision. By end of this month, USCIS will let go about 1000 contracted workforce (from PAE agency) in NBC Kansas City area. NBC will have only about 180 people working mostly on family-based immigration which had a major reduction because of EO. I think USCIS had a hiring freeze and trying to re-organize staff to save cash. So, they will keep running at a reduced capacity.
Let’s be positive and optimistic.

You're extremely optimistic. Hope this happens.

[newsletter1978]

I would think that there is a good chance for both of you and entire 2009 to clear before the end of 2020. I personally hope so. A lot of things are happening such as Reduced demand from CP stoppage, FB stoppage (spillover after October), etc., that are in favor of backlogged folks. With DACA ruling in the air (God forbid another 1 million kids with their DACA EADs expiring), congress will definitely provide some funds to USCIS. What is $1.2B in the midst of trillions ($2T was spent on CARES act). DACA is going to be a big issue once the Supreme court publishes its decision. By end of this month, USCIS will let go about 1000 contracted workforce (from PAE agency) in NBC Kansas City area. NBC will have only about 180 people working mostly on family-based immigration which had a major reduction because of EO. I think USCIS had a hiring freeze and trying to re-organize staff to save cash. So, they will keep running at a reduced capacity.
Let’s be positive and optimistic.

when you say before end of 2020, are you referring to fiscal or calendar 2020.

[idliman]

when you say before end of 2020, are you referring to fiscal or calendar 2020.

Unlike the experts here who crunch numbers and provide info, my optimism is based on back of napkin calculations only. There are a lot of uncertainties still in play. Will Trump's EO (CP) be extended? Will USCIS get a bailout and operate at normal capacity? Will the FB to EB spillover happen on Oct 2020? How low is ROW's demand before, during and after Covid? How much will be the spillover from EB2-ROW to India? Will EB-I get a higher spillover now that CP is stopped and while considering combined EB+CP against country limit, EB will get more from quota. If some of these line up, it is a no brainier for EB2I PDs crossing 2009. That was the basis of my optimism.
One thing that normal people tracking PDs will know is that the moment CP resumes and EO expires, EB3I dates will retrogress to compensate for all the CP cases. That definitely needs to be watched.

[jimmys]

Unlike the experts here who crunch numbers and provide info, my optimism is based on back of napkin calculations only. There are a lot of uncertainties still in play. Will Trump's EO (CP) be extended? Will USCIS get a bailout and operate at normal capacity? Will the FB to EB spillover happen on Oct 2020? How low is ROW's demand before, during and after Covid? How much will be the spillover from EB2-ROW to India? Will EB-I get a higher spillover now that CP is stopped and while considering combined EB+CP against country limit, EB will get more from quota. If some of these line up, it is a no brainier for EB2I PDs crossing 2009. That was the basis of my optimism.
One thing that normal people tracking PDs will know is that the moment CP resumes and EO expires, EB3I dates will retrogress to compensate for all the CP cases. That definitely needs to be watched.

In normal circumstances EB3I may stall or retrogress should the consulates reopen. But, we don't know the extent of demand and supply for EB3I. Since dates were at July 1,2009 last year itself, many may have approved already at consulates. Last two years EB3I received 2K+ more visas than allocated in spite of EB3-ROW retrogressing towards the end of the FY.

If EB3I is getting more visas like last year along with some FB spillover from last FY, EB3I most likely will advance a few more months in this FY. Then also, CP closures may yield some numbers from ROW/Philippines. I am not sure if all candidates are waived off interviews for EB ROW and other categories. EB2 to EB3 downporting will ease as EB2-I progresses. July 1,2009 for EB-3 India is not out of reach.

I agree that at the end of the FY, EB2 may finish ahead of EB3 but it won't last long.

Next bulletin will set the tone for both EB-2 and EB-3 for this FY.

[need4speed]

If there is such movement, before next bulletin, we should see some medical RFEs at least.

[horizon1012]

Hi Folks,

Looking at all the SO and the spillover news from FB to EB, can someone kindly predict when will be the dates current for 12/2010 EB2-I. My son will be 21 soon and need to plan for his F1 conversion.

Thanks

[imdeng]

I don't think anybody can say anything with any amount of certainty right now. Even if I say that 12/2010 will happen by end of Oct 2022 - will that change anything for you? If I were in your shoes, I will plan for the near worst case scenario - that 12/2010 will not be reached for 5-8 years or so even with recession/CP closure etc.

Hi Folks,

Looking at all the SO and the spillover news from FB to EB, can someone kindly predict when will be the dates current for 12/2010 EB2-I. My son will be 21 soon and need to plan for his F1 conversion.

Thanks

[tendlya]

That's wonderful news tendlya. Congratulations! It is great to see long timers getting through.

Thanks imdeng. Hopefully there is a rapid date movement this year.

[GC-Immigrant]

If CP closure continues until September, your date will be current for October 2020 bulletin.

[AceMan]

Hi Folks,

Looking at all the SO and the spillover news from FB to EB, can someone kindly predict when will be the dates current for 12/2010 EB2-I. My son will be 21 soon and need to plan for his F1 conversion.

Thanks

2 years would be the best case scenario for you.

[NJMavarick]

2 years would be the best case scenario for you.

Its been a while AceMan! How much of a spill over are you expecting?

[EB22010Dec]

Its been a while AceMan! How much of a spill over are you expecting?

I love this forum.
Gustimate for Eb2 2010 ( my pd) is any where between 5 months to 8 years
Paid Q's Prediction engine was wrong by -72% last year ( https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ecast-Accuracy)

Real answer - No one knows, there are too many variables.
Do your best and stay positive.

[AceMan]

Its been a while AceMan! How much of a spill over are you expecting?

I would expect everything to spilled over .

Jokes apart, the rapid advance movement of EB3-ROW for June aroused the interest after a very long time.

6-9 months movement for EB3 I is what the optimist in me is looking for.

[idliman]

I would expect everything to spilled over .

Jokes apart, the rapid advance movement of EB3-ROW for June aroused the interest after a very long time.

6-9 months movement for EB3 I is what the optimist in me is looking for.

AceMan glad to see you. It would be glad to hear from number gurus once in a while to keep up our spirits. I sense that the 50K+ unused CPs in 2020, brought you back. The conditions have been the most favorable this year.

[excalibur123]

I would expect everything to spilled over .

Jokes apart, the rapid advance movement of EB3-ROW for June aroused the interest after a very long time.

6-9 months movement for EB3 I is what the optimist in me is looking for.

As if the clocks have been turned back! I remember similar prediction of eb3 reaching mid-2010 from you back in early 2019, when we both were discussing here. And nothing of that sort happened.

CO is determined to keep eb3 behind eb2 to avoid downportings. So expect eb2 to reach July mid to end this year and eb3 to June. As for next year’s spillover, there are too many variables against it so no one should count it.

[jimmys]

As if the clocks have been turned back! I remember similar prediction of eb3 reaching mid-2010 from you back in early 2019, when we both were discussing here. And nothing of that sort happened.

CO is determined to keep eb3 behind eb2 to avoid downportings. So expect eb2 to reach July mid to end this year and eb3 to June. As for next year’s spillover, there are too many variables against it so no one should count it.

I'm not sure CO is trying to stop the downporting. EB-3 filing dates reached Apr 1,2010 in FY 19 and CO still kept the filing dates Feb,2010 in FY20. The filing dates movement pushed a lot of people to downport than FADs, IMO.