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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #5976
    He is backing off; no new GC will be issued but guest worker visa will not be touched

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/u...#link-57117970

    folks who are current, wait continues.

    folks on h1 - renewal / new business as usual

  2. #5977
    Quote Originally Posted by monsieur View Post
    He is backing off; no new GC will be issued but guest worker visa will not be touched

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/u...#link-57117970

    folks who are current, wait continues.

    folks on h1 - renewal / new business as usual
    For now at least... https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...al/ar-BB1305Pc

  3. #5978
    If no new GCs till September let's say then I wonder if the GCs roll over to next year and get applied to the most retrogressed country (ie India)?

    Seems kind of stupid to allow H1s but GCs when the latter require you to go through a more difficult PERM process!

  4. #5979
    Quote Originally Posted by abcx13 View Post
    If no new GCs till September let's say then I wonder if the GCs roll over to next year and get applied to the most retrogressed country (ie India)?

    Seems kind of stupid to allow H1s but GCs when the latter require you to go through a more difficult PERM process!
    As Q said it here - https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post63952

  5. #5980
    At times like these, you have to think like Stephen Miller would do. He will basically say freeze any more visa issuance processes until at least end of FY2020 and start afresh for FY2021, no rollover nothing. He has a singular goal of reducing immigration and nothing else. He used to work for Jeff Sessions after all. You just have to see some of Sessions' statements on twitter in the past week or so.

  6. #5981
    WSJ article says won’t impact EB immigration.

  7. #5982
    Guys, my biggest worry is not the delay in GC , but with the policy change will it impact EAD renewal ?

  8. #5983
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    Quote Originally Posted by abcx13 View Post
    WSJ article says won’t impact EB immigration.
    yes..i believe you are referring to this one: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj...ng-11587504410

    WSJ is probably the most reputed source you can get. But i guess we just need to wait a bit to find out...

  9. #5984
    Quote Originally Posted by rabp77 View Post
    yes..i believe you are referring to this one: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj...ng-11587504410

    WSJ is probably the most reputed source you can get. But i guess we just need to wait a bit to find out...
    https://twitter.com/cyrusmehta/statu...359535623?s=20
    Cyrus Mehta tweeted that INA 212(f) doesnt give him power to prevent filing for extension and AOS.

  10. #5985

    Smile

    Quote Originally Posted by LASHAB View Post
    https://twitter.com/cyrusmehta/statu...359535623?s=20
    Cyrus Mehta tweeted that INA 212(f) doesnt give him power to prevent filing for extension and AOS.
    This helps in reducing some anxiety.....hope is the best strategy in the current scenario

  11. #5986
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    He is going to stop GCs, halt immigration. By the time courts decide, he will likely have his 60 days. The move is motivated by politics and not based on any desire to be correct in the court of law.

  12. #5987
    Quote Originally Posted by Blue_fairy View Post
    He is going to stop GCs, halt immigration. By the time courts decide, he will likely have his 60 days. The move is motivated by politics and not based on any desire to be correct in the court of law.
    It's more politics since he wants to rile up his base with the upcoming election. Immigration reduction is what his base loves. His move most likely will be blocked in courts.

    I just filed for EAD renewal and if someone tells me my EAD can't be renewed, I'm hiring a lawyer right away.

  13. #5988

    Green Card Pause

    The Fox News article claims 'This includes people awarded permanent residence under the diversity lottery, work green cards and chain migration. People who are seeking Green Cards under US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) are already in the country, so they are not subject to the pause.'

    I hope AoS is allowed to procced.


    Quote Originally Posted by smuggymba View Post
    It's more politics since he wants to rile up his base with the upcoming election. Immigration reduction is what his base loves. His move most likely will be blocked in courts.

    I just filed for EAD renewal and if someone tells me my EAD can't be renewed, I'm hiring a lawyer right away.
    EB-2 I Priority Date - 06/19/2009 I-485 Filed - 10/2015

  14. #5989

  15. #5990
    TSC | PD: 12/21/2009 | RD: 02/14/12| ND: 02/16/12 | FP ND: 03/05/12 | FP: 03/26/12 | EAD/AP: ? | GC: ?

  16. #5991
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    EO

    Quote Originally Posted by Umesh1209 View Post
    This will actually greatly benefit AOS folks here in US in my opinion. Let’s wait for visa bulletin.

  17. #5992
    Cautious optimism. Q said it well. Visa numbers will be there, will authorities allocate n move the dates is the big question.

  18. #5993
    Sec. 2. Scope of Suspension and Limitation on Entry. (a) The suspension and limitation on entry pursuant to section 1 of this proclamation shall apply only to aliens who:

    (i) are outside the United States on the effective date of this proclamation;

    (ii) do not have an immigrant visa that is valid on the effective date of this proclamation; and

    (iii) do not have an official travel document other than a visa (such as a transportation letter, an appropriate boarding foil, or an advance parole document) that is valid on the effective date of this proclamation or issued on any date thereafter that permits him or her to travel to the United States and seek entry or admission.

  19. #5994
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    Will there be a VB, as CP is halted? may be VB in some special format.

  20. #5995
    So my impression is this EO only helps on the margin to the extent that EB2/3-I benefit from horizontal spillover (from ROW) and vertical spillover (from EB1) from lack of CP visas? And that's assuming that when the EO ends and consulates reopen, they don't proccess faster to clear the backlog of CP cases that is building up right now.

    I was thinking that unused FB spillover next year might be the bigger help, but that seems to be allocated to all EB categories and countries proportionately, instead of to the most retrogressed countries, so EB-I will only benefit to the extent that ROW doesn't consume the extra visas.

    And this line from the EO suggests that we shouldn't be suprised if they somehow try to change the PERM rules: "While some employment-based visas contain a labor certification requirement, because visa issuance happens substantially after the certification is completed, the labor certification process cannot adequately capture the status of the labor market today."

  21. #5996
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    And notice this too

    Sec. 6. Additional Measures. Within 30 days of the effective date of this proclamation, the Secretary of Labor and the Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with the Secretary of State, shall review nonimmigrant programs and shall recommend to me other measures appropriate to stimulate the United States economy and ensure the prioritization, hiring, and employment of United States workers.

  22. #5997
    Pandit
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    FB CP visa usage so far is about 80K. Another 2 months closure of CP, would it be too much to expect ~50K visas to EB category next year? EB1 stands to benefit a lot in FY 21. To some extent, EB2 and EB3 as well.

  23. #5998
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmys View Post
    FB CP visa usage so far is about 80K. Another 2 months closure of CP, would it be too much to expect ~50K visas to EB category next year? EB1 stands to benefit a lot in FY 21. To some extent, EB2 and EB3 as well.
    I thought FB spillovers are allocated to all EB categories equally. May I know why EB1 will alone benefit?

  24. #5999
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    Quote Originally Posted by Umesh1209 View Post
    I thought FB spillovers are allocated to all EB categories equally. May I know why EB1 will alone benefit?
    yes...thats is correct. Spec has mentioned before that the family spill over adds to entire EB quota, and full number after the spill over gets distributed to each EB category...and the 7 % country quota is applied. So this should benefit all countries & EB categories equally in terms of available numbers. That reduces the direct benefit to india. But with increased spillover from family, the horizontal spill over to india category is also likely to increase (that will probably happen near the end of 2021 aug, sept or October for the family spill over in 2020).

    I think the increased horizontal spill over that will happen in end of 2020 and 2021 will likely benefit india more. Thats the reason why EB1 and EB2 are likely to benefit more, because the FAD for ROW is nearly current for these categories, so the horizontal spillover is likely to be larger for EB1 and EB2. EB3 has a FAD date for ROW that was 01JAN17 recently. So its likely there is sufficient applications in EB3 ROW to prevent a large horizontal spillover to india (at least for 2020).

    They can easily publish the inventory data to give some clarity on this. But they dont, and make it sound like its a very complicated and difficult problem to make such predictions (which it should not be for anyone with this data, and basic knowledge of spreadsheets, and sql querying)

  25. #6000
    One interesting thing is the country caps are applied across both EB and FB together. This has been used in the past to justify giving more visas to countries like S.Korea in EB and reducing the number for EBI. With this EO, since FB is effectively stopped, will it increase the numbers for EBI?

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