EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[jimmys]

For last 7 years many reports have come and gone yet eb2i is still where it was 7 years.


These reports are like mirage in a desert. There is no water in desert.

Tomorrow there will be a Visa bulletin with 2 days movement.

Dont hold your breath.

Only EB2-I was stuck in the same month/year. But, EB3-India leaped a lot.

[EB32010]

Feb bulletin out:

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...uary-2020.html

EB1 - No movement
EB2 - 1 day
EB3 - 7 days

And this snippet: Since October there has been a consistently high level of Employment-based demand, primarily for adjustment of status cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. This trend is particularly apparent in the Employment Third and Third preference Other Worker categories. Unless there is a sudden and dramatic decrease in the level of such demand, it will be necessary to implement a “Rest of World” final action date for the month of March.

Is EB3 screwed this year also?

[swordfish380]

All the hype : eb2 india moves by 1 day.
May 19, 2009.

Its getting darker every month

[EB32010]

All the hype : eb2 india moves by 1 day.
May 19, 2009.

Its getting darker every month

At least EB2 ROW is not retrogessing. EB3 ROW sure is. Maybe EB2 will get some spillover if lucky.

[swordfish380]

swordfish380 said:
Today 03:43 PM
I see an email from where is my GC in my inbox
"
Dear User,

We will update the forecast sometime before middle of next week. Stay tuned.

Thanks & Regards,
"

I wonder what they are going to forecast.

" A 10 day movement for for eb2i in next 6 months? ".


This is my free prediction .

[lville]

I had said this before last month .

In Oct bulletin they had said there will be movement of 1 week for EB2-I and it moved by 1 day, 3 days and 3 days in subsequent bulletins. They said the same thing Jan Bulletin. So i'm hoping it will move by 3 days in March and April Bulletin. I believe when they project movement in Bulletin they forecast it for the quarter.

[idliman]

For last 7 years many reports have come and gone yet eb2i is still where it was 7 years.
These reports are like mirage in a desert. There is no water in desert.
Tomorrow there will be a Visa bulletin with 2 days movement.
Dont hold your breath.

We should let you predict and bless us before all bulletins. Spot on. Makes me think why are we even talking about VB movement? The following are the number of days of movement Since Feb2019.
FEB2020 Bulletin 19MAY09 1 day, 3 days, 2 days, 1 day, 4 days, 6 days, 8 days, 5 days, 3 days, 4 days, 3 days, 3 days, FEB2009 Bulletin -- 06APR09 5 days.

[jimmys]

Why didn't they release the FY'19 annual visa statistics yet? And, it's unbelievable to see the EB3 ROW demand. I get it, for the first two months in the FY, there's a pent up demand from previous year since EB3 WW had a PD in July or so. And, it's still peaking? Something is amiss. It would be interesting to see how visas were allocated last FY.

EB2 I movement is baffling. Just one day? How many applicants are going to be there in one day. Silverline for EB2 I is, EB2 ROW is not in danger of getting a PD.

[swordfish380]

We should let you predict and bless us before all bulletins. Spot on. Makes me think why are we even talking about VB movement? The following are the number of days of movement Since Feb2019.
FEB2020 Bulletin 19MAY09 1 day, 3 days, 2 days, 1 day, 4 days, 6 days, 8 days, 5 days, 3 days, 4 days, 3 days, 3 days, FEB2009 Bulletin -- 06APR09 5 days.

Anyone who is predicting PD movement with or without using published reports is no better than parrot astrologer in India.

when there is no hope people go to prediction agencies (baba's or nowadays websites). PK movie is a perfect example,

[qesehmk]

Anyone who is predicting PD movement with or without using published reports is no better than parrot astrologer in India.

when there is no hope people go to prediction agencies (baba's or nowadays websites). PK movie is a perfect example,

This is a bit over the top statement. Anybody who really believes that data and calculations based predictions are same as tarrot readers then please stop using this site or any other site you have on your mind.

This very thread is "Predictions (Rather Calculations)".

Before I first created such a thread on IV in 2007 (!) people literally hoped for a movement. Nobody knew what to expect when.
With this thread, using calculations and data we showed how EB-India is becoming a grave problem and how EB3-I has no hope. So people started moving to EB2 and then we predicted they will achieve parity and that's exactly what happened. Then we predicted reverse porting from EB2-3 ... it already has happened in case of china ... not so much for India. Then we saw all extra visas disappear from EB4 and EB1 ....

None of this would have been possible without data based approach.

The irrational movement today is not problem of data or lack thereof - it is driven by policy. How else you explain consistent elimination of backlogs in every other area except EB-IC? How else do you explain waste of visas in EB category or allocating more than 7% EB visas to other countries under the pretext that they are underutilizing their visas in FB .... but then the same DOS also says 7% is not really quota. Really? Hmm .... so if this is not policy driven then what is.

That is the real limitation of any prediction ... even more so than non-availability of data.

[swordfish380]

This is a bit over the top statement. Anybody who really believes that data and calculations based predictions are same as tarrot readers then please stop using this site or any other site you have on your mind.

This very thread is "Predictions (Rather Calculations)".

Before I first created such a thread on IV in 2007 (!) people literally hoped for a movement. Nobody knew what to expect when.
With this thread, using calculations and data we showed how EB-India is becoming a grave problem and how EB3-I has no hope. So people started moving to EB2 and then we predicted they will achieve parity and that's exactly what happened. Then we predicted reverse porting from EB2-3 ... it already has happened in case of china ... not so much for India. Then we saw all extra visas disappear from EB4 and EB1 ....

None of this would have been possible without data based approach.

The irrational movement today is not problem of data or lack thereof - it is driven by policy. How else you explain consistent elimination of backlogs in every other area except EB-IC? How else do you explain waste of visas in EB category or allocating more than 7% EB visas to other countries under the pretext that they are underutilizing their visas in FB .... but then the same DOS also says 7% is not really quota. Really? Hmm .... so if this is not policy driven then what is.

That is the real limitation of any prediction ... even more so than non-availability of data.

Hello Q,

With all do respect to the great work q, you and others have done in coming up with a great system to calculate the movement, my comments are just rants and no way i am demeaning anyone's work.

I also attribute the sluggish movement to lack of transparency and policy.

Years back Matt and you guys were spot on because we had access to more data and policy was different.

now with one or two reports which are available to predict with some complex calculations you can still predict but the reality is current administration hates immigration ,(Similar to CAA in India) you will only see a day or two movement in future.

[idliman]

The irrational movement today is not problem of data or lack thereof - it is driven by policy. How else you explain consistent elimination of backlogs in every other area except EB-IC? How else do you explain waste of visas in EB category or allocating more than 7% EB visas to other countries under the pretext that they are underutilizing their visas in FB .... but then the same DOS also says 7% is not really quota. Really? Hmm .... so if this is not policy driven then what is.

That is the real limitation of any prediction ... even more so than non-availability of data.

Most users in your forum/blog are well informed and smarter than regular crowd. However, it is frustrating for any to keep facing stagnating PDs for the last 4 years. None of the prediction math has worked reasonably in the last few years. I thought even conservatively we will see end of 2009 in so many years, 3 years back. It is normal to show some anger / mistrust in prediction data. I am sure that's what Canada and swordfish showed in their posts. A person who thinks he/ she is closer to finish line has much more to lose and get disappointed. We should respect all views. As you had put down in words, what's happening now maybe beyond prediction territory.

[Blue_fairy]

Assuming there is no intentional throttling and weird interpretation of the policy, what in your opinion, could explain the slow movement for EB2 I. Is it still porting?

We can't calculate the date movement due to lack of data, but can we hypothesize what might be behind such slow movement?

[qesehmk]

Most users in your forum/blog are well informed and smarter than regular crowd. However, it is frustrating for any to keep facing stagnating PDs for the last 4 years. None of the prediction math has worked reasonably in the last few years. I thought even conservatively we will see end of 2009 in so many years, 3 years back. It is normal to show some anger / mistrust in prediction data. I am sure that's what Canada and swordfish showed in their posts. A person who thinks he/ she is closer to finish line has much more to lose and get disappointed. We should respect all views. As you had put down in words, what's happening now maybe beyond prediction territory.

Even if true, data and predictions is still the least imperfect way to make decisions. If you say I would rather hope and pray, still fine with me.

[qesehmk]

Assuming there is no intentional throttling and weird interpretation of the policy, what in your opinion, could explain the slow movement for EB2 I. Is it still porting?

We can't calculate the date movement due to lack of data, but can we hypothesize what might be behind such slow movement?

I have done this in the past .... but I will try to summarize.

USCIS/DOS have consistently reduced backlogs in ALL other areas except EB-IC. That's not a hypothesis ... this is a fact.

First there used to be huge labor backlog ... they eliminated that in order to generate ROW demand
Then they eliminated 140 backlog in similar fashion to generate ROW demand.
Then they eliminated 485 EB2/EB3 ROW backlog .... including phillipines nurses backlog which was huge.
While doing all of this they started applying 7% limit across EB and FB to starve EB-IC at the expense of ROW demand in FB (e.g. S korea)
And on top of all of this if you look at last few years they have wasted EB visas as well. The consumption is less than allocation.

As of now we don't how they are able to hold dates off ... we will know in a year or two.

Now - how do I guess all of this? The answer is data and calculations!!

[Blue_fairy]

Thank you sir. That seems some pretty serious and intentional screw up. What did we Indians do to deserve it?

I have done this in the past .... but I will try to summarize.

USCIS/DOS have consistently reduced backlogs in ALL other areas except EB-IC. That's not a hypothesis ... this is a fact.

First there used to be huge labor backlog ... they eliminated that in order to generate ROW demand
Then they eliminated 140 backlog in similar fashion to generate ROW demand.
Then they eliminated 485 EB2/EB3 ROW backlog .... including phillipines nurses backlog which was huge.
While doing all of this they started applying 7% limit across EB and FB to starve EB-IC at the expense of ROW demand in FB (e.g. S korea)
And on top of all of this if you look at last few years they have wasted EB visas as well. The consumption is less than allocation.

As of now we don't how they are able to hold dates off ... we will know in a year or two.

Now - how do I guess all of this? The answer is data and calculations!!

[qesehmk]

Thank you sir. That seems some pretty serious and intentional screw up. What did we Indians do to deserve it?

Please call me Q.
Good question. We all can guess but who knows for sure. Lets see what people think.

[jimmys]

Please call me Q.
Good question. We all can guess but who knows for sure. Lets see what people think.

You call it coincidence. But, after DoS/USCIS were sued by Indian nationals for 2015 VB fiasco, they completely stopped doing any favors to EB India category, particularly for EB2 India. They just let ourselves mend within the annual quota.

[amarrecherla]

I have done this in the past .... but I will try to summarize.

USCIS/DOS have consistently reduced backlogs in ALL other areas except EB-IC. That's not a hypothesis ... this is a fact.

First there used to be huge labor backlog ... they eliminated that in order to generate ROW demand
Then they eliminated 140 backlog in similar fashion to generate ROW demand.
Then they eliminated 485 EB2/EB3 ROW backlog .... including phillipines nurses backlog which was huge.
While doing all of this they started applying 7% limit across EB and FB to starve EB-IC at the expense of ROW demand in FB (e.g. S korea)
And on top of all of this if you look at last few years they have wasted EB visas as well. The consumption is less than allocation.

As of now we don't how they are able to hold dates off ... we will know in a year or two.

Now - how do I guess all of this? The answer is data and calculations!!

Q, what is the basis for applying 7% limit across EB and FB? what is the best way for USCIS/DOS to answer this? I guess this is is costing 5000 visa numbers to India.

Should we file a case on this or seek clarification from agencies?

[jimmys]

Q, what is the basis for applying 7% limit across EB and FB? what is the best way for USCIS/DOS to answer this? I guess this is is costing 5000 visa numbers to India.

Should we file a case on this or seek clarification from agencies?

Looks like the law. From the visa bulletin:

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...uary-2020.html

2. Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620. The dependent area limit is set at 2%, or 7,320.

[monsieur]

even with 7% limit, EB2-I should be getting 2800 atleast; isn't that not the case?

[jimmys]

even with 7% limit, EB2-I should be getting 2800 atleast; isn't that not the case?

Yes. This year it's about 3100 including FB spillover from last year.

[qesehmk]

Q, what is the basis for applying 7% limit across EB and FB? what is the best way for USCIS/DOS to answer this? I guess this is is costing 5000 visa numbers to India.

Should we file a case on this or seek clarification from agencies?

They site INA. But I think their interpretation is flawed. I think it is worthwhile pursuing a clarification or some sort of action.

Looks like the law. From the visa bulletin:

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...uary-2020.html

2. Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620. The dependent area limit is set at 2%, or 7,320.

That is a new and flawed interpretation. If EB explicitly has a lower limit (note lower!!) of 140K visas then granting any EB visas to FB itself is violation of INA.

[texas_]

Thanks Q

There may be corrupt lobbyist and govt officers don't want EB India Priority Dates progression

[amarrecherla]

Thanks Q for answering this.
This link (https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?...edition=prelim) has information on numerical limitations.
Below is the text:
the total number of immigrant visas made available to natives of any single foreign state or dependent area under subsections (a) and (b) of section 1153 of this title in any fiscal year may not exceed 7 percent (in the case of a single foreign state) or 2 percent (in the case of a dependent area) of the total number of such visas made available under such subsections in that fiscal year.

It clearly says 7 percent of subsection unless I am understanding it wrong.