EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Moveon]

this was applied at the Texas service center. Looks like this is a month ahead of Nebraska.

Thanks rabp77 . Texas is ahead by 2 months as NSC has retrogressed by a month yesterday . Also how long did he/she get it for and was it a combo card or just AP. Mine is just AP as my AP was given for a year and EAD for 2 .

[excalibur123]

Thanks Spec. This explains why we had spike EB3-I CP cases. Since EB2-I dates are moving at snail pace, I doubt there would be any spike in EB2-I CP cases.

Thanks Spec for providing the context for CP cases. Some of my calcs for EB3 CPs -
Factors
1. Number of EB3 applications filed per month (Aug 2007-Dec2008)
2. Of those how many went back home
3. Of those how many have managed to revive the application
4. Of those how many dependents they have.

Some guesstimates -
1. Best - 250 per month, Worst - 550 (based on old PIs)
2. Best - 30%, Worst - 70%
3. Best - 30%, Worst - 70%
4. Best - 1.25, Worst - 3

I averaged these factors individually and the total for 17 months is - 5312

As per Spec, 2400 of these are already given in last 2 years, so about 2900 more to go. Therefore I believe we should not expect EB3 to move much this year.

[canada]

No matter how much we analyze, the reality is the dates won’t move by leaps and bounds. That’s the truth. It moves by 1-7 days a month. No point in stressing anymore. Just spend an hour on 18th of each month, if your PD is in 2009 in EB2.

[Moveon]

No matter how much we analyze, the reality is the dates won’t move by leaps and bounds. That’s the truth. It moves by 1-7 days a month. No point in stressing anymore. Just spend an hour on 18th of each month, if your PD is in 2009 in EB2.

There was a mention of a spillover of 16K GCs last week . Will that be reflected for this fiscal? If so will EB2-I get any benefit and any Idea on what that number will be ?
Without large spillovers , EB2/EB3-I is doomed.

[Suva2001]

There was a mention of a spillover of 16K GCs last week . Will that be reflected for this fiscal? If so will EB2-I get any benefit and any Idea on what that number will be ?
Without large spillovers , EB2/EB3-I is doomed.

As far as I remember that 16K is coming from family category to EB. In that case EB/EB3 each would receive 4500 for current financial year. That means normal upper limit - 40K would be increased to 44500. So India would get 3100 which would be 300 more than the normal allocation for a year.

Thanks

[iatiam]

As far as I remember that 16K is coming from family category to EB. In that case EB/EB3 each would receive 4500 for current financial year. That means normal upper limit - 40K would be increased to 44500. So India would get 3100 which would be 300 more than the normal allocation for a year.

Thanks

And it also increases EB2ROW SO chances which is more important that the per country allocation. I don't know how the ROW demand will change this FY, but if it remains the same, it would SO to EB2I. CO has been claiming that EB3ROW demand has been increasing so perhaps the chances of EB3 SO are much less.

Iatiam

[idliman]

And it also increases EB2ROW SO chances which is more important that the per country allocation. I don't know how the ROW demand will change this FY, but if it remains the same, it would SO to EB2I. CO has been claiming that EB3ROW demand has been increasing so perhaps the chances of EB3 SO are much less.
Iatiam

I also want to bring to the attention of elimination of I485 concurrent processing by USCIS which is scheduled for APR2020. Hopefully this will have short term positive effects in 2020/2021. RIN 1615-AC22 We are gasping for last bit of air here.

[Moveon]

And it also increases EB2ROW SO chances which is more important that the per country allocation. I don't know how the ROW demand will change this FY, but if it remains the same, it would SO to EB2I. CO has been claiming that EB3ROW demand has been increasing so perhaps the chances of EB3 SO are much less.

Iatiam

Just for my understanding. So if there is a SO of 4500 to EB2 would India only get 7% of it if there is greater ROW demand. But if there is no ROW demand , will India get all the extra numbers after China gets 7% was our priority dates are way behind China.

I originally thought that the entire SO goes to the country that is backlogged the most ,

[iatiam]

Just for my understanding. So if there is a SO of 4500 to EB2 would India only get 7% of it if there is greater ROW demand. But if there is no ROW demand , will India get all the extra numbers after China gets 7% was our priority dates are way behind China.

I originally thought that the entire SO goes to the country that is backlogged the most ,

I honestly don't know how it works perhaps someone who knows how SO works can explain it assuming a part of the 4500 numbers SOing. Also it seems the impact won't be that dramatic. Very, very optimistically the dates can breach October 2009 assuming all the visas go to India which isn't going to happen.

Iatiam

[Suva2001]

I honestly don't know how it works perhaps someone who knows how SO works can explain it assuming a part of the 4500 numbers SOing. Also it seems the impact won't be that dramatic. Very, very optimistically the dates can breach October 2009 assuming all the visas go to India which isn't going to happen.

Iatiam

Spillover from family doesn't work exactly same way like spillover from EB category. As example 4500 would be added to EB2 as a whole. That means it would increase total EB2 to 44500 instead of 40,000 for all countries. Each country would receive 3100 for that year. India would only get more than 3100 if there is excess visas from EB2-ROW for that year.

Thanks

[Moveon]

I honestly don't know how it works perhaps someone who knows how SO works can explain it assuming a part of the 4500 numbers SOing. Also it seems the impact won't be that dramatic. Very, very optimistically the dates can breach October 2009 assuming all the visas go to India which isn't going to happen.

Iatiam

Thanks Iatiam. Hopefully someone with knowledge of SO can respond. Yes, even with ~4000 extra green cards we will probably move by a max of 2 months .

[iatiam]

Spillover from family doesn't work exactly same way like spillover from EB category. As example 4500 would be added to EB2 as a whole. That means it would increase total EB2 to 44500 instead of 40,000 for all countries. Each country would receive 3100 for that year. India would only get more than 3100 if there is excess visas from EB2-ROW for that year.

Thanks

I get that part, but then what happens. How is the 4500 split between India and China?

Iatiam

[Moveon]

Spillover from family doesn't work exactly same way like spillover from EB category. As example 4500 would be added to EB2 as a whole. That means it would increase total EB2 to 44500 instead of 40,000 for all countries. Each country would receive 3100 for that year. India would only get more than 3100 if there is excess visas from EB2-ROW for that year.

Thanks

Thanks Suva2001. So for India to get any major benefit ROW must have very low demand this year. Most unlikely

[iatiam]

I also want to bring to the attention of elimination of I485 concurrent processing by USCIS which is scheduled for APR2020. Hopefully this will have short term positive effects in 2020/2021. RIN 1615-AC22 We are gasping for last bit of air here.

Why do you think this would help?

Iatiam

[iatiam]

Thanks Suva2001. So for India to get any major benefit ROW must have very low demand this year. Most unlikely

I don't think it is unlikely. So far ROW demand has been within quota. In the last VB, CO has made a comment about having cut off dates for ROW. Does it mean that it will be sustained throughout the FY, I don't know. As good as economy is doing, it's not doing that well to warrant a huge spike in demand for ROW. Also Spec had pointed out that CO can only allocate visas on a quarterly basis. If the demand stays as-is, we will see some SO.

Iatiam

[Suva2001]

I get that part, but then what happens. How is the 4500 split between India and China?

Iatiam

Are you not reading my whole post? I explained everything.

Thanks

[iatiam]

So where did you explain how the 4,500 is split up and I am assuming that you know how SO works, which is a huge assumption by itself.

[Suva2001]

So where did you explain how the 4,500 is split up and I am assuming that you know how SO works, which is a huge assumption by itself.

Read my original posts. Again sharing my original posts below.

---------------------
1st post -

As far as I remember that 16K is coming from family category to EB. In that case EB/EB3 each would receive 4500 for current financial year. That means normal upper limit - 40K would be increased to 44500. So India would get 3100 which would be 300 more than the normal allocation for a year.

2nd post -

Spillover from family doesn't work exactly same way like spillover from EB category. As example 4500 would be added to EB2 as a whole. That means it would increase total EB2 to 44500 instead of 40,000 for all countries. Each country would receive 3100 for that year. India would only get more than 3100 if there is excess visas from EB2-ROW for that year.
---------------

Did I not mention that 4500 would be added to 40,000 and total would be 44,500 for EB2? 7% of this would be 3100. This would be per country allowed visa for EB2-India. EB2-India would only get extra visas if EB2 has any excess visa. Don't mix up EB2-ROW spillover with family visa spillover. You don't have to believe me as you seem not aware how spillover works. Google and find out.

Thanks

[iatiam]

Read my original posts. Again sharing my original posts below.

---------------------
1st post -

As far as I remember that 16K is coming from family category to EB. In that case EB/EB3 each would receive 4500 for current financial year. That means normal upper limit - 40K would be increased to 44500. So India would get 3100 which would be 300 more than the normal allocation for a year.

2nd post -

Spillover from family doesn't work exactly same way like spillover from EB category. As example 4500 would be added to EB2 as a whole. That means it would increase total EB2 to 44500 instead of 40,000 for all countries. Each country would receive 3100 for that year. India would only get more than 3100 if there is excess visas from EB2-ROW for that year.
---------------

Did I not mention that 4500 would be added to 40,000 and total would be 44,500 for EB2? 7% of this would be 3100. This would be per country allowed visa for EB2-India. EB2-India would only get extra visas if EB2-ROW gives any spill over. Don't mix up EB2-ROW spillover with family visa spillover. You don't have to believe me as you seem not aware how spillover works. Google and find out.

Thanks

Spec has shown in detail how the country cap works on the FB SO. He has a very nice table which illustrates this. You are regurgitating this point.

Specific to my question, if ROW does not consume any of the 4500 visas, how will the 4500 visas be split between the two retrogressed countries - India and China. Will the most retrogressed one get more visas and if so what is the split up. Again, I am looking for someone like Spec to answer this question.

Iatiam

[Spectator]

Spec has shown in detail how the country cap works on the FB SO. He has a very nice table which illustrates this. You are regurgitating this point.

Specific to my question, if ROW does not consume any of the 4500 visas, how will the 4500 visas be split between the two retrogressed countries - India and China. Will the most retrogressed one get more visas and if so what is the split up. Again, I am looking for someone like Spec to answer this question.

Iatiam

Let's try to clear this up.

Suva's explanation is correct as to how the spare FB visas from FY2019 are applied in FY2020.

It's incorrect (and confusing) to call it SO. The unused FB visas from FY2019 form part of the calculation for the FY2020 EB allocation.

7% is then applied to the revised allocation figures for FB & EB.

So, as the Annual Numerical Limits FY-2020 document shows:

The EB allocation for FY2020 (provisionally) is 156,500.

EB1, 2 & 3 each get an allocation of 44,759.

Prorated, the 7% limit in EB1, 2 & 3 would be 3,133 (compared to 2,803) (but remember that's not how the 7% limit is calculated - it's (226,000 + 156,500) *7% = 26,775).

If China, India, Mexico and Philippines each used their full 3,133, then ROW would have 44,759 - (3,133*4) = 32,227 visas (compared to 28,828).
In reality, ROW might have slightly more in EB2 since Mexico and Philippines have not used all available visas historically.
It might be around 3,000 higher based on FY2018 figures (say 35.5k in round figures).

A back of the envelope simplistic calculation says monthly ROW demand would need to be below about 2.4k per month (35.5k / 14 (2 months carried forward from FY2019)) for spare visas to be available within EB2 for retrogressed Countries.
That's somewhat lower than EB2-ROW adjusted average over FY2016 to FY2018 ~2.7k/month.

If any spare visas are available within EB2, all visas first go to the most retrogressed Country (India in this case) until they match the next most retrogressed Country.

CO mentions:

Final Action Dates may be established for one or more categories as early as January 2020 due to unusually heavy demand totaling over 11,000 EB-2 applicants and over 13,000 EB-3 applicants. Charlie noted that if instead the level of demand shows signs that it is subsiding, such that these high numbers merely represent pent up demand from the recent summer retrogressions, these categories could remain current.

in this document. It's difficult to parse this as normal demand on the same basis is not mentioned.

[Suva2001]

Thanks Spec for explaining in detail. As usual you are awesome.

[jimmys]

Let's try to clear this up.

Suva's explanation is correct as to how the spare FB visas from FY2019 are applied in FY2020.

It's incorrect (and confusing) to call it SO. The unused FB visas from FY2019 form part of the calculation for the FY2020 EB allocation.

7% is then applied to the revised allocation figures for FB & EB.

So, as the Annual Numerical Limits FY-2020 document shows:

The EB allocation for FY2020 (provisionally) is 156,500.

EB1, 2 & 3 each get an allocation of 44,759.

Prorated, the 7% limit in EB1, 2 & 3 would be 3,133 (compared to 2,803) (but remember that's not how the 7% limit is calculated - it's (226,000 + 156,500) *7% = 26,775).

If China, India, Mexico and Philippines each used their full 3,133, then ROW would have 44,759 - (3,133*4) = 32,227 visas (compared to 28,828).
In reality, ROW might have slightly more in EB2 since Mexico and Philippines have not used all available visas historically.
It might be around 3,000 higher based on FY2018 figures (say 35.5k in round figures).

A back of the envelope simplistic calculation says monthly ROW demand would need to be below about 2.4k per month (35.5k / 14 (2 months carried forward from FY2019)) for spare visas to be available within EB2 for retrogressed Countries.
That's somewhat lower than EB2-ROW adjusted average over FY2016 to FY2018 ~2.7k/month.

If any spare visas are available within EB2, all visas first go to the most retrogressed Country (India in this case) until they match the next most retrogressed Country.

CO mentions:



in this document. It's difficult to parse this as normal demand on the same basis is not mentioned.

As things stand now, it looks very bleak for EB-3 India. If EB-2 ROW demand subsides, EB-2 will benefit this year.

[excalibur123]

As things stand now, it looks very bleak for EB-3 India. If EB-2 ROW demand subsides, EB-2 will benefit this year.

With EB2s now holding EB3 I-140s too, and the perennial EB3->EB2 porters hanging about (those who cannot use EB3 I-140), EB2 and EB3 are effectively a joint line.

Once EB3 escapes clutches of 2007-08 Consular Processing, the two dates would be much closer, with no category letting the other one get ahead too far.

[Moveon]

Thanks Spec for explaining in detail. As usual you are awesome.

I agree . Explained in such simple words and with examples .
Thanks Spec. You really Rock !

[iatiam]

Let's try to clear this up.

Suva's explanation is correct as to how the spare FB visas from FY2019 are applied in FY2020.

It's incorrect (and confusing) to call it SO. The unused FB visas from FY2019 form part of the calculation for the FY2020 EB allocation.

7% is then applied to the revised allocation figures for FB & EB.

So, as the Annual Numerical Limits FY-2020 document shows:

The EB allocation for FY2020 (provisionally) is 156,500.

EB1, 2 & 3 each get an allocation of 44,759.

Prorated, the 7% limit in EB1, 2 & 3 would be 3,133 (compared to 2,803) (but remember that's not how the 7% limit is calculated - it's (226,000 + 156,500) *7% = 26,775).

If China, India, Mexico and Philippines each used their full 3,133, then ROW would have 44,759 - (3,133*4) = 32,227 visas (compared to 28,828).
In reality, ROW might have slightly more in EB2 since Mexico and Philippines have not used all available visas historically.
It might be around 3,000 higher based on FY2018 figures (say 35.5k in round figures).

A back of the envelope simplistic calculation says monthly ROW demand would need to be below about 2.4k per month (35.5k / 14 (2 months carried forward from FY2019)) for spare visas to be available within EB2 for retrogressed Countries.
That's somewhat lower than EB2-ROW adjusted average over FY2016 to FY2018 ~2.7k/month.

If any spare visas are available within EB2, all visas first go to the most retrogressed Country (India in this case) until they match the next most retrogressed Country.

CO mentions:



in this document. It's difficult to parse this as normal demand on the same basis is not mentioned.

Thanks Spec, much appreciated