Hello Gurus, anyone has insight to why the EB3I dates wouldn't move. There was very minimal inventory in the last published i485 inventory for EB3. I would have expected Eb3I dates to move a little bit.
Hello Gurus, anyone has insight to why the EB3I dates wouldn't move. There was very minimal inventory in the last published i485 inventory for EB3. I would have expected Eb3I dates to move a little bit.
Thanks for the detailed explanation, Spec.Originally Posted by Spectator
Most available EB3 Visas were consumed by CP, all the Expats (so to say) are returning to US with GCs. You won't see significant movement this FY or in near future.
The last inventory was released before the EB3I dates started moving. The general consensus is that this inventory does not have EB3I cases when the dates started moving forward. Also note that more than half of EB3I demand is coming from CP cases which will not show up in 485. Unless there is some good data, there is no point trying to predict movement. Based on the last check-in with CO, there is much more demand in EB3 from other countries. I am not smart enough to tell where this demand is coming from. I only hope that the demand drops down after a while and EB3 dates move forward.
Iatiam
CP is not as much of a threat to EB3 India. It's the lack of horizontal spillovers from EB ROW. If EB3 ROW demand reduces in the coming months (And, Philippines staying close to the current or current. Yes, this will save us from Philippines getting allocated to 7% of the country quota across categories) there will be a significant movement in EB3 India with or without CP consuming visas. The EB ROW demand always ebbs and flows. So, there's a possibility in the next 6-9 months for EB3 India to move significantly i.e. 6 months and beyond.
I certainly hope it moves along. But why do you say CP is not an issue? Based on Spec's numbers this is about 1,500 which is not insignificant. It's more than half of yearly quota. I am also preplexed why there is CP demand at all? Does anyone in India work for the same company in the same position for a decade? I don't know but it seems unreal
Iatiam
"In the December Bulletin, the State Department notes that employment-based adjustment of status filings have steadily increased in recent weeks, warning that if this demand continues, Final Action Dates may be established as early as January 2020 for EB-2 and EB-3 categories that were previously current."
According to this statement from Fragomen, are we to deduce that only EB2 and EB3 that are current (ROW) will retrogress and IT WILL NOT AFFECT EB2-I ?
I meant to say if we had 6K horizontal spillover to EB3, the consular processing numbers are only about 25% even at 1500+. If we only get annual quota, the CP numbers are about 55% or so. I just said in comparison.
May or may not affect EB2-I. We don't know yet. It all depends on how the ROW demand materializes for the rest of the FY.
I just remembered that in October Bulletin it was mentioned that dates for EB2-I may advance upto 1 week. SO far in last 2 bulletins it has moved 4 days. So Hoping that it will at-least move another 3 days to make up that 7 day movement prediction in October bulletin.
Do you guys think EB2-I will run into this same issue in future where number CP cases will increase significantly and hence reduce the date movement for EB2-I?
Does anyone think the extra demand for ROW is probably because of HR1044/S386. There was a lot of talk about the bill getting passed which may have prompted ROW folks to get in the waiting queue at the first chance they got before the bill got approved. Maybe I am reading too much into it.
I don't think there was a spike in the EB-2 India numbers in CP.
See Specs post in a different thread dedicated to CP numbers
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...-Onwards/page3
For quick reference (Courtesy Spec) :
Employment Based Year End FY2019
Country --------- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 --- Total
India ----------- 150 ----- 52 -- 1,681 ---- 119 ---- 502 --- 2,504
I believe EB2 CP numbers will go up but, may not be as steep as EB3 (744 in 2018 against 1681 in 2019).
Spec can shed some light on this.
The only observation I would make is that the EB3-I Cut Off Date first surpassed July 2007 in April 2018.
I don't believe it is coincidence that CP cases for EB3-I have risen steeply since that time.
In FY2018, the number of CP cases per month tripled in the period March 2018 to August 2018 (September 2018 was retrogressed to Jan 2003) compared to the period October 2017 to February 2018 (when the COD was in late 2006).
Here's the number of EB3-I CP approvals for the last several years.
EB3- India Consular Processing figures
FY2019 - 1,681 (10 months with PD beyond July 2007)
FY2018 --- 747 (5 months with PD beyond July 2007)
FY2017 --- 208
FY2016 --- 158
FY2015 --- 155
FY2014 --- 236
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
So we are in fiscal year 2020. Is 1681 number based on calendar year or fiscal year. If that is fiscal year, the assumption is CP has spiked for 2020 as well and that has contributed to EB3I's stalemate. Am i right here?
Thanks Spec. This explains why we had spike EB3-I CP cases. Since EB2-I dates are moving at snail pace, I doubt there would be any spike in EB2-I CP cases.
If you have been wondering if the delays in USCIS processing is real look at this
"Historical National Average Processing Time for All USCIS Offices"
https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/historic-pt
For most of the petitions processing times have doubled since 2015 and in some tripled.
This is ridiculous. Is there some way to make them accountable for this delay.
Iatiam
Today got a shocker. I have been tracking the progress for dates daily and have that written out .
Estimated time range-------------------Form type---------------------------------------------Receipt date for a case inquiry
4 Months to 6 Months----------------Permanent resident applying for a re-entry permit----------------------June 08, 2019
5.5 Months to 7.5 Months----------- All other applicants for advance parole -----------------------------April 25, 2019
Yesterday , the date for "All other applicants for advance parole" was May 9 , 2019. How did that retrogress? There is no accountability at USCIS what so ever .
I applied for my AP (I have my I-485 pending via EB2-I )renewal on June 15th. I hope I come under "Permanent resident applying for a re-entry permit" else I have to wait for 2 more months to get the AP and my current AP just expired.
I also noticed that today, not sure how it can retrogress. My AP expired August 30th.
"Reentry Permit for Permanent Residents" only applies in case you have the green card, and are leaving the US for an extended period of time. I believe everything else will fall in the other category. Sometimes these dates are not that accurate, as i have friends who applied in mid july and have got it around a week ago.
They also increased the processing time from 5-7 months to 5.5 to 7.5 months .
If we have to travel to India for an emergency I guess we have to go to a USCIS center and request one ?
@rabp77
Which Center did he apply and how long did he get the AP for (was it just AP or combo card )? Can you please find out . Mine is NSC (Nebraska)
this was applied at the Texas service center. Looks like this is a month ahead of Nebraska.
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