EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[excalibur123]

In that case they are processing April and not June (Nebraska). This means that you cannot travel outside the country for 7 out of 12 months in a year. I had travelled to India for 2 weeks in 2017 when AP was in process and they rejected it due to travel while in progress and I reapplied . So I got AP for only one year and looks like AP renewals are for only one year and not two when you apply for a combo card.

Anyone else who filed for AP at Nebraska Mid of this year ?

How does one know what center to file the AP application at for renewal? My AOS had gone to NBC but I presume that’s just for initial application.

[Moveon]

How does one know what center to file the AP application at for renewal? My AOS had gone to NBC but I presume that’s just for initial application.

I believe you will file for the EAD/AP at the same center where your AOS petition was filed

[paramjit74]

How does one know what center to file the AP application at for renewal? My AOS had gone to NBC but I presume that’s just for initial application.

The instructions here are very clear -

https://www.uscis.gov/i-131-addresses

[jimmys]

The instructions here are very clear -

https://www.uscis.gov/i-131-addresses

Right, these instructions are applicable if you file I-131 alone.

If you file for a combo card, you have to send your form I-131 to where you're sending your form I-765. Depending on your domicile, it's going to be either Phoenix or Dallas lockbox(For most employment I-485 cases. There may be exceptions,though).

[paramjit74]

Right, these instructions are applicable if you file I-131 alone.

If you file for a combo card, you have to send your form I-131 to where you're sending your form I-765. Depending on your domicile, it's going to be either Phoenix or Dallas lockbox(For most employment I-485 cases. There may be exceptions,though).

Sorry but its the other way around. If filing together you have to send I-765 to where you send your I-131.

https://www.uscis.gov/i-765-addresses

"If you are filing Form I-765 with another form, file both forms at the location specified by the other form. For example, if you are filing Form I-765 with a Form I-539, file both forms according to the Form I-539 Instructions. Use addresses below only when you are NOT submitting Form I-765 with another form."

[jimmys]

Sorry but its the other way around. If filing together you have to send I-765 to where you send your I-131.

https://www.uscis.gov/i-765-addresses

"If you are filing Form I-765 with another form, file both forms at the location specified by the other form. For example, if you are filing Form I-765 with a Form I-539, file both forms according to the Form I-539 Instructions. Use addresses below only when you are NOT submitting Form I-765 with another form."

Nope.

https://www.uscis.gov/forms/filing-d...cation-pending

From above link

If Form I-485 has already been filed and Forms I-765 and I-131 are being filed together, use Form I-765 filing location instructions.

What you're saying is applicable for may be H-4 EAD I-765 forms which need to be sent along H-1/H-4 package.

[excalibur123]

Nope.

https://www.uscis.gov/forms/filing-d...cation-pending

From above link

If Form I-485 has already been filed and Forms I-765 and I-131 are being filed together, use Form I-765 filing location instructions.

What you're saying is applicable for may be H-4 EAD I-765 forms which need to be sent along H-1/H-4 package.

So to compile for everyone's use, for renewals -
Filing I131 alone - Use I131 Addresses
Filing I765 or I765+I131 - Use I765 Addresses

[rabp77]

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...-%20FY2020.pdf

Not sure what this means, but would like to know the comments of experts in this thread

[Spectator]

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...-%20FY2020.pdf

Not sure what this means, but would like to know the comments of experts in this thread

This is CO's first estimate of what the annual allocations for EB and FB in FY2020 will be.

The bottom line figure for EB is 156,500.

That's saying that EB will have 16,500 more visas available than the minimum 140,000 allocation.

We already know that in FY2019, FB used 21k less visas than in FY2018. Since only 16.5k seem to be available, it suggests FB AOS approvals in FY2019 were higher than in FY2018.

Put another way, 16.5k extra EB visas suggests FB used 226k - 16.5k = 209.5k in FY2019.

We know that Consular approvals for FB accounted for 190.6k of that total, so FB AOS approvals would have been about 209.5k - 190.6k = 18.9k.

Numbers are approximate.

[iatiam]

This is CO's first estimate of what the annual allocations for EB and FB in FY2020 will be.

The bottom line figure for EB is 156,500.

That's saying that EB will have 16,500 more visas available than the minimum 140,000 allocation.

We already know that in FY2019, FB used 21k less visas than in FY2018. Since only 16.5k seem to be available, it suggests FB AOS approvals in FY2019 were higher than in FY2018.

Put another way, 16.5k extra EB visas suggests FB used 226k - 16.5k = 209.5k in FY2019.

We know that Consular approvals for FB accounted for 190.6k of that total, so FB AOS approvals would have been about 209.5k - 190.6k = 18.9k.

Numbers are approximate.

Spec any idea when these numbers will be applied.

Iatiam

[Priraj]

Also, my own case confirms this hypothesis. I have a priority date in April 2013 and my PERM case starts with A-13XXXX. However, my case didn't show up in DOL reports for FY2013 and FY2014. It's in FY2015 report as a decision was taken in Oct 2014 after an audit.

Thanks for the clarification. Now I get it.. Didn't realize that subtlety

[iatiam]

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...mber-2019.html

Some concerning language at the end

"In recent weeks there has been a steadily increasing level of Employment-based demand for adjustment of status cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. Continuation of the current demand pattern would require the establishment of final action dates in the Employment Second, Third, and Third Other Worker preference categories as early as January. Such action would be required in an effort to hold number use within those FY 2020 annual limits."

Iatiam

[IamGSN]

It isn't very clear what's early January mean?

[Spectator]

It isn't very clear what's early January mean?

It's not "early January", it's "as early as January" (as in the January 2020 VB).

My interpretation is that CO is saying that current demand he's seeing from USCIS (i.e. AOS approvals) for EB2 and EB3 as a whole is outstripping the quarterly numbers he has available to allocate to those categories.

If it doesn't slow down, he'll have to impose a cut off date on ROW in the categories mentioned. If there's more demand from 7% limited Countries than can be allowed, they might be retrogressed further as well.

He might have to do that as early as the January 2020 visa bulletin.

He mentions "within those FY 2020 annual limits", but I think that's a bit of a misnomer at this stage, since CO is bound by quarterly and monthly limits for the first 3 quarters of the FY.

[idliman]

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...mber-2019.html

Some concerning language at the end

"In recent weeks there has been a steadily increasing level of Employment-based demand for adjustment of status cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. Continuation of the current demand pattern would require the establishment of final action dates in the Employment Second, Third, and Third Other Worker preference categories as early as January. Such action would be required in an effort to hold number use within those FY 2020 annual limits."

Iatiam

EB1 INDIA FA -- 01JAN15 (No Change)
EB2 INDIA FA -- 15MAY09 (+2 Days) Yay!
EB3 INDIA FA -- 01JAN09 (No Change)

No change in DF dates for EB1/EB2/EB3 India.

EB1 ROW moved by 1.5 months to 15JUL18. EB2/EB3 ROW are current.

[iatiam]

It's not "early January", it's "as early as January" (as in the January 2020 VB).

My interpretation is that CO is saying that current demand he's seeing from USCIS (i.e. AOS approvals) for EB2 and EB3 as a whole is outstripping the quarterly numbers he has available to allocate to those categories.

If it doesn't slow down, he'll have to impose a cut off date on ROW in the categories mentioned. If there's more demand from 7% limited Countries than can be allowed, they might be retrogressed further as well.

He might have to do that as early as the January 2020 visa bulletin.

He mentions "within those FY 2020 annual limits", but I think that's a bit of a misnomer at this stage, since CO is bound by quarterly and monthly limits for the first 3 quarters of the FY.

I guess that gives a sliver of hope there. If the demand reduces over the next few months, is it safe to say that the dates will made current again. I am thinking of the impact the FB SO will have on CO's calculation

[anfu02]

Dear Moveon:
Would you mind responding to the group when your AP gets approved? What's your receipt date?

thanks.

About a year and a half ago I got my EAD for 2 years and AP for a year as I travelled to India while my AP was being processed. Anyway I applied for my AP renewal Mid June this year (5 months before expiry) and my application still shows "in-progress" .

I checked the Web site and it says

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimated time range | Form type | Receipt date for a case inquiry
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Months to 6 Months | Permanent resident applying for a re-entry permit | May 29, 2019
5 Months to 7 Months | All other applicants for advance parole | April 29, 2019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Which Category do I fall into as my application is "AOS(I-485) EB2-I" . My AP expires this week and I will not be able to travel outside the country in case of any emergency.

Any help in determining which category I fall into will help me estimate how long it will take me as Its moving at the rate of one day per day for the last month

[newsletter1978]

Why wouldn't the EB3I dates move. There was very minimal inventory in the last published i485 inventory for EB3. I would have expected Eb3I dates to move a little bit.

[Moveon]

Dear Moveon:
Would you mind responding to the group when your AP gets approved? What's your receipt date?

thanks.

Sure. My Receipt date is June 15th . I find it hard to believe that Refugee and Asylees are ahead of legal immigrants. I hope the date for legal immigrants (Via i-485) applying for AP is June 5th and not May 06 .

Today's status :
Estimated time range---------------Form type---------------------------------------------------------Receipt date for a case inquiry
4 Months to 6 Months---------------Refugee or asylee applying for a refugee travel document--------------June 05, 2019
4 Months to 6 Months--------------- Permanent resident applying for a re-entry permit -------------- June 05, 2019
5 Months to 7 Months--------------- All other applicants for advance parole --------------------------------- May 06, 2019

[iatiam]

It's not "early January", it's "as early as January" (as in the January 2020 VB).

My interpretation is that CO is saying that current demand he's seeing from USCIS (i.e. AOS approvals) for EB2 and EB3 as a whole is outstripping the quarterly numbers he has available to allocate to those categories.

If it doesn't slow down, he'll have to impose a cut off date on ROW in the categories mentioned. If there's more demand from 7% limited Countries than can be allowed, they might be retrogressed further as well.

He might have to do that as early as the January 2020 visa bulletin.

He mentions "within those FY 2020 annual limits", but I think that's a bit of a misnomer at this stage, since CO is bound by quarterly and monthly limits for the first 3 quarters of the FY.

Spec,

Any idea why there is a sudden spike in demand for ROW? Can it be construed as a cyclic demand given ROW was retrogressed in September and became current again in October? Or is this some systemic, sustained demand. I am looking at the PERM approvals and it hasn't spiked at all.

Iatiam

[jimmys]

It's not "early January", it's "as early as January" (as in the January 2020 VB).

My interpretation is that CO is saying that current demand he's seeing from USCIS (i.e. AOS approvals) for EB2 and EB3 as a whole is outstripping the quarterly numbers he has available to allocate to those categories.

If it doesn't slow down, he'll have to impose a cut off date on ROW in the categories mentioned. If there's more demand from 7% limited Countries than can be allowed, they might be retrogressed further as well.

He might have to do that as early as the January 2020 visa bulletin.

He mentions "within those FY 2020 annual limits", but I think that's a bit of a misnomer at this stage, since CO is bound by quarterly and monthly limits for the first 3 quarters of the FY.

The December 2019 bulletin still says employment based immigrants are at least 140,000 for the year. Does it mean the DoS didn't account for the 16K+ numbers it received from FB?

[rabp77]

This is CO's first estimate of what the annual allocations for EB and FB in FY2020 will be.

The bottom line figure for EB is 156,500.

That's saying that EB will have 16,500 more visas available than the minimum 140,000 allocation.

We already know that in FY2019, FB used 21k less visas than in FY2018. Since only 16.5k seem to be available, it suggests FB AOS approvals in FY2019 were higher than in FY2018.

Put another way, 16.5k extra EB visas suggests FB used 226k - 16.5k = 209.5k in FY2019.

We know that Consular approvals for FB accounted for 190.6k of that total, so FB AOS approvals would have been about 209.5k - 190.6k = 18.9k.

Numbers are approximate.

Thank you Spec, Very insightful as always.

[Spectator]

The December 2019 bulletin still says employment based immigrants are at least 140,000 for the year. Does it mean the DoS didn't account for the 16K+ numbers it received from FB?

It always says that in the VB until USCIS release to DOS some information needed to make the higher allocation official.

USCIS are so slow, that this usually happens around July and is shown in the September VB.

If you look in the August 2019 VB, it still has the 140,000 language.

In the September 2019 VB, the official number of 141,918 is mentioned and Section F says:

F. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the USCIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On July 17th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2019 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2019 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 141,918

Under INA Section 202(a), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2019 the per-country limit is 25,754. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,358.

Despite the above, CO uses a best estimate (particularly after the DOS Immigration Statistics are published) since the number of aliens paroled (this affects the EB calculation) is quite small and the immediate relatives figure only affects the FB allocation (the number is so large that 226,000 is guaranteed under the formula).

For instance, the FY2018 DOS Visa Statistics suggested 1,910 extra visas might be available in FY2019. The actual number was 1,918.
The FY2017 DOS Visa Statistics suggested 218 extra visas might be available in FY2018. The actual number was 292.
The FY2016 DOS Visa Statistics suggested 0 extra visas might be available in FY2017. The actual number was 0.
The FY2015 DOS Visa Statistics suggested 329 extra visas might be available in FY2016. The actual number was 338.
The FY2014 DOS Visa Statistics suggested 4,807 extra visas might be available in FY2015. The actual number was 4,796.

[lville]

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...mber-2019.html

Some concerning language at the end

"In recent weeks there has been a steadily increasing level of Employment-based demand for adjustment of status cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. Continuation of the current demand pattern would require the establishment of final action dates in the Employment Second, Third, and Third Other Worker preference categories as early as January. Such action would be required in an effort to hold number use within those FY 2020 annual limits."

Iatiam

How does this affect EB2I ? Will EB2I keep advancing or stall ? Or do you thinks it’s talking about ROW

[harapatta]

Another disappointing month ...

Month EB2 : FA Movement(Days) EB2 : DF Movement(Days)
September 5/8/2009 6/1/2009
October 5/12/2009 4 7/1/2009 30
November 5/13/2009 1 7/1/2009 0
December 5/15/2009 2 7/1/2009 0