Do you think F2A will continue to be current for the next 6 - 12 months? If it was a fluke, then those who filed next month will be left hanging again if the dates retrogress next month or next few months. Again, aggressively moving the dates just for Aug and Sept won't do anything to consume current FY numbers right? CP takes at least 6 months of processing before the applicants get their GC.Originally Posted by Spectator
CO has already indicated that F2A is unlikely to remain Current for very long.
Family-Based Preference Categories
Similar to last month, the August F-2A Final Action Date will remain current across categories, and the Dates for Filing for F-2A applications has been advanced. Charlie expects that, absent an unanticipated surge in demand, the F-2A Final Action Date will continue to remain current across categories through September 2019. Nonetheless, one should not expect this category to remain current for long. When the expected surge in demand materializes, it will prompt the imposition of a Final Action Date. This date will likely be sometime in 2017 or 2018.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thank you Q, now I am clear. Appreciate your time.
I am just analyzing to see, any movement in EB3-I , as EB3-P backlog is cleared, there can be additional applications in USCIS queue, but as they did it current in July, hope fully it will be current from Oct.
may get some additional visas next year.
My PD is 06/25/2010 (EB2), it has been many years, after we saw 2012 advance, every year, it is frustratingly slowing down, trying to find any hope next year, later to file at least I-485.
As EB1-I taking almost all spill over in EB1, there is no hope for EB2 spill over, even horizontal spill over is not happening, only hope is EB3 with any surprise with EB3-P/RoW spill over.
That's Spec. Not me!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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Thanks for the correction Q, I meant to Spec.
DOS have released the latest CP figures for June 2019.
Cumulatively, here is the situation for Oct-June (9 months of FY2019).
Country --------- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 --- Total
China ----------- 494 ---- 138 ---- 172 ------ 7 -- 3,041 --- 3,852
India ----------- 143 ----- 44 -- 1,520 ----- 97 ---- 389 --- 2,193
Mexico ----------- 18 ----- 26 ---- 496 ----- 44 ----- 49 ----- 633
Philippines ------- 1 ---- 162 -- 3,432 ----- 55 ----- 11 --- 3,661
ROW ----------- 1,156 -- 2,496 -- 5,651 -- 1,394 -- 2,522 -- 13,219
Grand Total --- 1,812 -- 2,866 - 11,271 -- 1,597 -- 6,012 -- 23,558
Oct-Jun FY2018 was 23,023.
Full FY2018 was 27,345.
Country --------- FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 --- Total
China ----------- 319 -- 2,225 ---- 593 -- 1,215 -- 4,117 --- 8,469
India ----------- 164 ---- 685 ----- 73 -- 3,029 -- 5,517 --- 9,468
Mexico ---------- 958 - 12,423 ---- 563 ---- 823 -- 2,050 -- 16,817
Philippines --- 1,206 -- 2,660 -- 3,485 ---- 890 -- 2,042 -- 10,283
ROW ---------- 13,469 - 32,160 - 10,028 - 11,536 - 25,822 -- 93,015
Grand Total -- 16,116 - 50,153 - 14,742 - 17,493 - 39,548 - 138,052
Oct-Jun FY2018 was 160,029
Full FY2018 was 211,641.
I know people are interested as to whether there might be spillover of FB visas to Employment Based in FY2020.
Currently, FY2019 has 21,977 less CP approvals for FB than there were in FY2018 at the same point in time.
If the average use continues for the rest of FY2019, then SO would be in the region of 27.5k.
If the average use continues at the high end of use in FY2018 (c. 19k/month), then SO would be in the region of 16.5k.
Both cases assume that AOS approvals for FB are the same in FY2018 and FY2019.
The most plausible scenario is a figure between the two cases.
CO has advanced Cut Off Dates for FB, so we might expect some increase in approvals for the remainder of the FY.
On the other hand, recent months have only seen <15K FB approvals per month, so a huge increase in the remaining time might be quite difficult to achieve.
Although I have explained the rationale for the above figures, the above is very speculative, so treat it as such. Normally, I would not speculate. I give the figures only because I realize it is of great interest to everyone.
Personally, I think some SO is now inevitable, but the amount will only become clear as DOS releases the remaining 3 months data.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks Spec. Assuming that any spillover is evenly spread across each category and each country in the same ratio as normal quota.Which means it will get distributed to each category (eb1 - eb5) in the same ratio as the yearly quota. Within each category it will be distributed again in same ratio (I, C, M, P, ROW). If we consider the worse case scenario of 16.5k, how much movement can we expect for eb2I?
Per Specs post #5199:: For a spillover of 10,000 EB1I, EB2I and EB3I each will get 200 numbers. For 16.5K, they will get 1.65*200 = 330 numbers. A week?
I think not much — maybe, mid-May 2009 or even less. Based on last PI report, there were 1429 cases for May2009 for EB2-I. I think that is does not have CP cases. So, add that. The overall SO of 16.5k, with regular distribution among all categories will mean only ~330 additional visas for B2-I. See Spec’s post a couple of pages back for calculating this.
At some point, if the SO is so high that it satisfies all EB2-ROW or EB4, 5 demand and the SO just flows through them over to EB2-I, it will result in more movement but I do not know what that tipping point is for each of those categories. Spec or other gurus might do.
As others have already said, 16.5k only translates to an extra 330 visas for the FY for each of EB1-I - EB3-I. That in itself is not going to have much effect.
The more important effect may be that it slows down when EB1-EB3-ROW become retrogressed, or allows them to stay Current for the whole FY. This is a prerequisite for lateral SO within the categories.
Taking EB2-ROW as an example, they retrogressed a month early in FY2018 and 2 months early in FY2019.
Simplistically, this means that available visas are used up in 11 months. At 30k use in 11 months, it means around 2.7k demand falling into the next FY in the first year. After 2 years, 5.4k demand falls into the next FY etc.
16.5k would give an extra 3.4k to ROW in each of EB1-EB3. How it works out in each Category may be different. For instance, I haven't the faintest clue what the demand for EB3-ROW is at present.
Vertical SO is virtually impossible at this time. China will use any spare visas in EB5. Central American countries will use any spare visas in EB4. EB1-ROW needs to become Current, then China and India will then use any spare visas in EB1.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Does that mean 30k use in 11 months and 2.7K demand falling and carrying over to next FY meaning any good for EB2 and EB3 community in a couple of years from now?
I know my posts can paint a rather grim picture.
Something I meant to post in an earlier post is a bit brighter.
We've discussed the fact that the 7% limit is assessed over the sum of EB and FB allocations and is generally around 25,620.
We've also discussed how this helps both Philippines and South Korea.
If India's FB totals are lower in FY2019, then it might allow / has allowed CO to give more approvals to India EB categories, while still staying within the overall 7% limit.
I've had a look at comparing India FB approvals from FY2018 against those for FY2019 (for the period Oct-Jun).
Indeed India does have lower FB CP approvals this year, particularly in the FB4 category.
--------- FB1 ---- FB2A ---- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 - Grand Total
India --- (62) --- (799) ---- (71) - 1,034 - (3,266) ----- (3,164)
Might be good news, might not.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks Spec as always !!
I am trying to interpret your FB counts thus far for FY 19 equating to 3164. Assume we get 3164 extra visas from FB --> EB that would apply early next FY.
I believe it will be evenly divided by 5 EB categories so 3164 /5 ~ 633 visa each EB category would end up receiving
633 numbers might fluctuate but this is a good starting to next FY I believe
CO would have to use them this FY, since it relates to the 7% limit, rather than unused visas.
To put it in context, 7% of the 226,000 FB allocation is 15,820.
In Oct-June of FY2019, India's total FB use is 9,468 and there are 3 months to go.
However, we have no idea whether CO has already taken this into account when setting the EB Cut Off Dates for India. Since he is now starting to retrogress dates or make them Unavailable, it doesn't seem that likely that there will be further movement this FY.
I know it gets horrendously complicated - sorry.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I understood TODAY that Pending inventory does not include CP
This is way complicated to understand, predict without all the information
I really wish they give us the latest pending inventory numbers
Thanks Spectator
Q/Spec, how will the EB5 higher payments rule impact EB2/3 dates [Assuming there is a reduction in the rate of EB5 applications next year] ?
This rule will become effective starting Nov 2019.
I think it's likely to be some time before any effect is seen.
Existing I-526 applications will likely continue under the existing rules and there are a lot of them to be processed.
On November 2018, NVC held 39,001 EB5 applications awaiting a visa (including dependents).
At the end of Q2 FY2019, USCIS had a backlog of 13,105 I-526. With the current approval rate of 84.53% and a dependent ratio of 2.81, this equates to a possible 31,129 EB5 visas.
Altogether, that's a potential 70,130 EB5 visas, which at 9,940 / year equates to around 7 years to clear the EB5 backlog.
It may be shorter than that, but any EB5 change, such as that proposed, is not going to have any immediate effect on the number of EB5 approvals.
After that, it's possible the numbers will be lower, but I wouldn't underestimate the number of Chinese who could still comfortably afford $900k instead of $500K.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I don't see much impact on China. The Indian and other numbers will certainly reduce. How much? Its anybody's guess!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Can anyone clarify this question?
After several years of being backlogged, EB3 -most of the candidates might have ported to EB2 and EB3 must be way ahead than still lingering in and around 2009, what could be the reason? I understand that EB2 is clogged because there are no spillovers from EB1 but lot of porters from EB3.
Thanks
there is no Eb2/3 line of india. its two long lines where everyone steps to the fastest line and than if the next one gets faster they step to that one. so all lines become slower cause everyone is in every line. its like the matrix neo is everywhere
A couple of explanations:
1. There are folks with both EB3 and EB2 I-140's in the months of April, May and June 2009. It is possible they are getting GCs in the EB3 category and not EB2. Also the reason EB2 is trudging along 3 days a month.
2. Not every EB3 applicant ported to EB2. There are a few people who have not and they probably have spouse+children also filing in EB3.
What's astounding is that, us desis found a way to file for GC in the peak of great recession
2010 was the recovery period. 2007/8/9 was peak recession. i dont think dates will move out of 2009 for another 10 years
I would say the worst case is 3-4 years. Not 10 years.
I don't think we need to be that pessimistic. The remaining inventory of approx 9000 EB2I till end of 2009 should clear in a maximum of 3 years (assuming no spillover). However, EB3I will probably have 3000 people (guess; 6months x 500 numbers) who have not filed their AOS till end of 2009. The downward porting from EB2I to EB3I should make EB2I move faster. I wish, CO would move EB3I dates aggressively and then retrogress. This will allow people to file for EAD+AP and start their 180 day AC21 clock. However, he seems to be extremely cautious and does not want retrogression.
I am hoping that by end of 2020 (Say DEC2020), EB3I will reach end of 01JAN2010 (subject to retrogression).
I agree if the Pending Inventory of July 2018 has correct figures. 2023 is when 2009 clears
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