Okay, I get it now. Totally forgot about the CP cases. Thanks for the clarification.Originally Posted by Spectator
Okay, I get it now. Totally forgot about the CP cases. Thanks for the clarification.
Spec,
a) Even though the number 24k looks lower but if I see it as % of total EB2 it is 53% and last year it was only 43%. Also, considering the processing delays and other factors I am predicting that USCIS/DOS will not be able to allocate the visas beyond 54% of total EB2 visas to EB2-no-IC. They have to allocate remaining 46% to the EB2-IC before the midnight of Sep30th, 2015 to avoid the wastage of visas.
b) It will be the case of over allocation and the extra visas will be getting from EB4 as spillover to EB5.
I don't think upcoming inventory report will have any useful info. In fact we have predictions for EB2I inventory data here :Hey Spec,
It would be nice to have the inventory report, wouldnt it?
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...3828#post53828
I'm not predicting the PD movements, I'm only predicting what will be the total visas allocated to EB2-I this year. if you see my earlier posts I was also predicting that EB2-I inventory levels will drop to 9k by Sep30th and I'm still confident that it will reduce to that level, may be you can arrive the PD movement from this number.
YT,
Thanks for the reply.
For point (a), I understand how you arrived at the number, but a % of a changing total number where the target is more static may not be relevant. Over the last 5 years (the period you are using), the average use by EB2-nonIC is 30k/year. Total numbers of visas available for EB2 has varied between 49k and 67k in an individual year over the same period.
Extra visas available to EB2 in any year are going to be used by India (predominantly). EB2-nonIC won't use more because extra visas are available. EB2-noniC use is affected more by changes in PERM and USCIS processing times.
If you strip away the differences due to varying Fall Down from EB1 and extra visas from FB (ranging from 0 to 18.5k), the average use by EB2-nonIC against the base allocation for EB2 of 40,040 becomes:
FY2010 - 27,406 - 68.4%
FY2011 - 34,550 -- 86.3%
FY2012 - 25,009 -- 62.5%
FY2013 - 42,641 - 106.5%
FY2014 - 21,983 -- 54.9%
Average - 30,318 - 75.7%
I hope you get my point, however badly explained.
For point (b), neither EB4 or EB5 can receive spillover from another Category. They can both only Spill Up spare numbers to EB1.
Note there is no language for EB4 and EB5 allowing them to use unused numbers from any other Category and EB1 says that they get unused visas from EB4 and EB5.INA: ACT 203 - ALLOCATION OF IMMIGRANT VISAS
(1) Priority workers. -
Visas shall first be made available in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for the classes specified in paragraphs (4) and (5), to qualified immigrants who are aliens described in any of the following subparagraphs (A) through (C):
(4) Certain special immigrants. -
Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 7.1 percent of such worldwide level, to qualified special immigrants described in section 101(a)(27) (other than those described in subparagraph (A) or (B) thereof), of which not more than 5,000 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants described in subclause (II) or (III) of section 101(a)(27)(C)(ii) , and not more than 100 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants, excluding spouses and children, who are described in section 101(a)(27)(M) .
(5) Employment creation. -
(A) In general. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 7.1 percent of such worldwide level, to qualified immigrants seeking to enter the United States for the purpose of engaging in a new commercial enterprise (including a limited partnership)--
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,
Thanks for the info.
For point (b) I was not aware of this law. It is good to know that EB4 & EB5 can’t exceed beyond their quota and EB5 can’t get any spillover from EB4. I’ve corrected my estimation figures accordingly:
FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_Version2
For point (a) I got your point but still I believe EB2-I will get 16k+ visas this year as I strongly relying on processing delays in spite of huge PERM demand.
Also, I’m quite confident that the EB1 numbers will not go beyond 39k (again I’m relying on processing delays here too)
Hello Gurus,
As of June 2015 VB my PD will be current. My PD July,14 2008. I-485, I-131 and I-765 were filed on July 30, 2014. I did my medical on 06/06/2014. Do you guys think i will get GC before my 1 year medical is expired? Will there an an RFE because of my medical?
YT,
Thanks for your reply.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
For a layman, how far can the dates go this year with this many number of visas?
If the Spillover is around 16,000 then it should easily cross April, 2010
Hi Spec,asankaran,
I can't resist, I have to ask.
Could you explain how you came to that conclusion?
The Jan Inventory showed around 20k needed to reach April 1, 2010. At least 1k approvals had been made by that time and the Inventory figure won't include most porting cases.
PS It isn't 16k SO, it is 16k total EB2-I approvals (16,750 according to YT's breakdown).
First I thought as you mentioned, SO is going to 16k. Second even if inventory shows 20,000 what I have noticed is they don't process everything to get it to zero. So if they move dates little bit more (3 months) to use available visas then there will not be any wastage of visas. Otherwise if they plan exactly for 16k they may have only 13-14k visas eligible for green card.
Thanks.
YT,
I have to say that the estimate you provided back in Dec 2014 will not be close to reality in this FY. I feel the EB2 non-IC number is too low in your projections. The lower numbers for that category in previous year was because of lower PERM approvals and slow I-485 processing. In fact those PERM application in the pipeline will come back with vengeance in this FY and hit us big time.
You have predicted total EB2India visas of 16k and that relies heavily on the EB2 non-IC consumption.
YT,
30K seems to more of a realistic estimate for EB2 Non IC due to pent up demand from last year. What is your opinion on that?
We could be left with 6 - 8 K for Eb 2 India in that case.
See the last 5 year numbers for EB2-I:
MIN: 17193, MAX: 23997 & AVG: 20881
Statistically speaking this year number should be around the average or at the least at the minimum level unless we see any significant change in the system which is different from last 5 years. I don't see any such changes here and hence I do believe the numbers will be around 16k for EB2-I. If at all any system wide change that will spoil this number, it will be the newly introduced expiry dates for medicals.
YT,
There are factors for FY2015 that are significantly different from the last 5 years.
a) There are no longer any spare visas from EB5.
b) FY2011 was an aberration for EB1 because of Kazarian and has never been repeated.
c) The 5 year period contains wildly different numbers of extra FB visa that average about double the number available for FY2015.
Corrected for those factors and with the number of extra FB visas for FY2015, the 5 year average drops to half the headline figure of 21k.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Any thoughts on YT's EB3I prediction? Anyone?
Spec,
I know where you are coming from. It’s true that we have a reason for every year why EB2-I got so many visas for the last 5 years. I'm hoping that we will figure it out a reason for EB2-I getting 16k visas in FY15 when we discuss this topic in Dec'15. As of now I don't know what is that single big reason which will cause this, I'm thinking it is the processing delays or the efficiency of the USCIS to convert the demand into visas in time. One more factor I want to add here is (which is positive for EB2-I): PERM ratio of INDIA:ROW, in FY08 it was 34:60 and it gradually reversed and in FY15: it is 60:32 (based on FY15Q2 PERM stats). IMO, we all are worrying of this 32% being converted into GC Visas and consume all supply leaving no spillover to EB2-I. On the flip side consider the other 68% will go till I-140 ONLY but at the same time they will clog the system and block the approvals of remaining 32%, creating the processing delays.
I did consider the above factors you mentioned before arriving at the figure 16k and hence I made it to 4k lesser from past average(21k) and 7k lesser from previous year value(23.5k). I don't believe these factors/changes in the system will make EB2-I to get ONLY 10k or lesser in FY15. If it happens it will be a history and we were discussing this will happen for the last 2 years and we haven't seen it happening and my belief is that it will not happen in near future. Also, if we see the past 2 years pattern: FY13:EB2-I:17k, FY14:EB2-I:24k, anybody could predict the pattern for next 2 years based on PERM demand as follows: FY15:EB2-I:10k , FY16:EB2-I:24k But I was predicting something different here: FY15:EB2-I:16k , FY16:EB2-I:18k (stabilizing the fluctuations due to underlying processing characteristics)
This discussion has warranted me to provide a pessimistic view on these predictions and here is another chart I projected with pessimistic view and still I came up with at least 14k visas:
FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_PESSIMISTIC_VIEW
I see your point on EB2-Row numbers (your approach is ideal one) but somehow I'm so reluctant to guess any lesser number for EB2-I. Let’s wait and see how it goes.
WhereismyGC forecast updated. For details view ..
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5787#post55787
This post is not legal advice nor is a sale of any product or service. Speak with your lawyer for legal advice.
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Still looks like 6k FA to EB3I. So the EB3I dates may move into Oct2004 by Sept2015.
Has happened in the past. Please refer the 2009 annual report statistics. EB2I got 10,106 visas in FY2009.
The following is from Ron Gotcher
http://www.immigration-information.c....18086/page-55
AILA just posted the notes of their monthly meeting with Charlie Oppenheim last Thursday. Highlights include:
Worldwide EB-2. The demand in this category has exploded, far exceeding the historical pattern of the previous five months. There was an 80% increase in demand from February to March, and demand increased more than 100% in April as compared to February. The Visa Office had no advance notice that this demand would materialize, or whether it will be sustained. Despite this unanticipated surge in worldwide EB-2 demand, it is expected that this category will remain current.
While the increase in demand will not impact worldwide EB-2 applications, it will negatively impact EB-2 India in that fewer unused worldwide numbers are likely to be available for EB-2 India. Earlier in the year, Charlie expected that he would be able to advance EB-2 India to July or August 2009 by the end of the fiscal year. That may not be possible now, given the uptick in worldwide usage.
and
Number use during the first six months of the last fiscal year suggested that a significant number of "otherwise" unused EB-1 and EB-2 numbers would be provided to EB-2 India. Therefore, best and worst case scenarios were provided to USCIS regarding the cut-off which might be achieved for FY2014, and USCIS used that information in deciding whether to issue RFEs. The EB-2 India cut-off date advanced very rapidly from July through September, reaching May 1, 2009. Although the worst case scenario cut-off date was surpassed, subsequent increases in EB-1 and EB-2 number use during the summer months did not allow the best case scenario to be achieved. Much of that increase was the result of EB-3 India cases being upgraded to EB-2. The Visa Office has no information regarding the demand that may result from such upgrades until that change is actually reported by USCIS.
The May 1, 2009 cut-off date was held for October, the first month of the new fiscal year, in an attempt to allow final action to occur on cases which had become eligible for processing during the summer months. It was then necessary to retrogress the cut-off date for November in order to limit number use under the FY2015 limits. After discussing the issue with USCIS, the Visa Office decided to begin advancing the cut-off date for EB-2 India much earlier in the fiscal year than in previous years. The hope was that this would provide sufficient time for I-485s that were filed last year to be processed to conclusion prior to the expiration of the medical exams, and provide additional time for those who would be filing this year.
One by-product of the earlier rapid movement of EB-2 India was that the surge in EB-3 to EB-2 upgrades began much earlier than in years past. The Visa Office could not predict volume of demand for upgrades, or the rate at which the increase in demand would be realized. The amount of demand, combined with a staggering increase in overall EB-2 number use during the past two months, will likely slow the advancement of EB-2 India through the rest of the fiscal year. If the March/April demand turns out to be a temporary aberration and demand returns to that which we experienced from October to February, movement of the EB-2 India cut-off date could be more favorable.
YT,
Thanks for the reply. I appreciate it.
I think we can both agree it is damn difficult to forecast with so many unknown variables.
I hope your figure is correct and as we have said several times, something has always happened to rescue EB2-I. I just fear it isn't there this year.
In general I am in quite close agreement to your forecast. The only area we differ in is the number use for EB2-WW.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
It has been a while since I posted in this forum. I did find the recent discussion about EB2-IC vs E2-NonIC interesting.
To remind:
-PERM processing times in Oct2012 were about 60 days. That has grown to about 8 months
-I-485 processing times in Oct2012 were about 4 months. That has grown to about 8-12 months (based on Trackitt which is way more reliable than the USCIS website)
I think the combination of these two factors has lead to a steady backlog of NonIC cases that are ready to be approved. The visa office has already suggested there was a spike in approvals from USCIS in March and April.
Objectively speaking, I expect NonIC to consume at least 90% of the visas available this year (Around 30-32K). EB2-I/C will get "spillover" in the form of EB-1 and unused FB-cases from FY2014.
It's only 6K total projected allocation, not 6K FA. That will take the EB3I COD only up to April or May 2004, if at all. CO's reticence on EB3I movement is very disconcerting.
I had an opportunity to talk to CO couple of years back regarding under allocation of EB3 visas to India. At that time I felt he had a bias towards ROW. He seemed to be more concerned about EB3-ROW than decade old backlogs in EB3-India.
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