EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Spectator]

I think it's fair to say that CO is not getting any more information out of USCIS than we are - and is equally frustrated.

His only advantage is that he does know how many visas have been used to date, but he only knows that as they are approved by USCIS and doesn't have any insight into future demand or any USCIS processing priorities.

For EB, that's a big problem, since USCIS process 90% of cases. I'm not surprised the message is rather confusing.

EB1 seems to be the most clear, to the point where Worldwide applicants have started to downgrade to EB2, which is still current.

FB is interesting. CO has good visibility of the numbers in the queue and all categories have been retrogressed to date. It seems applicants there are reevaluating whether they want to emigrate to the USA at all, possibly based on the negative atmosphere towards FB immigrants at the moment.

Because most FB categories are highly retrogressed and are consular processed, CO does have the ability to move both the FD and FAD forward by large amounts to generate demand and process them in time. Having said that, some under-utilization in FB is starting to look possible, which would help EB in FY2020.

[bikenlalan]

CO mentions this, "if demand in EB-2 China remains steady, it may be possible to shift some of those numbers to EB-3 China."
As per my understanding, the numbers from EB-2 if available, go to the heavily retrogressed country in that category. So it should go to EB2-I? How can he say that numbers can be made available to EB3-C?

Please correct my understanding.

[iatiam]

I think it's fair to say that CO is not getting any more information out of USCIS than we are - and is equally frustrated.

His only advantage is that he does know how many visas have been used to date, but he only knows that as they are approved by USCIS and doesn't have any insight into future demand or any USCIS processing priorities.

For EB, that's a big problem, since USCIS process 90% of cases. I'm not surprised the message is rather confusing.

EB1 seems to be the most clear, to the point where Worldwide applicants have started to downgrade to EB2, which is still current.

FB is interesting. CO has good visibility of the numbers in the queue and all categories have been retrogressed to date. It seems applicants there are reevaluating whether they want to emigrate to the USA at all, possibly based on the negative atmosphere towards FB immigrants at the moment.

Because most FB categories are highly retrogressed and are consular processed, CO does have the ability to move both the FD and FAD forward by large amounts to generate demand and process them in time. Having said that, some under-utilization in FB is starting to look possible, which would help EB in FY2020.

Spec, thanks. Just so I am clear, do you expect this underutilization to happen this FY and so the numbers will be available next FY (say Q1 FY2020). My understanding is that these have to be used next FY

Iatiam

[LASHAB]

"EB-2 India will continue to advance very slowly, in daily movements, or up to one week at the most. Charlie noted that there are 14,000 Indians with pending adjustment of status applications filed in 2012 in the queue for numbers in this category. Lower Worldwide EB-2 demand may allow for the advancement of this date during the summer. This situation is being closely monitored."
Does this mean that there will be some advancement in EB2I the last qtr of FY 19? If it happens it will also reduce the volume of downgrade of people with PD in 09.

[gs1968]

I think it's fair to say that CO is not getting any more information out of USCIS than we are - and is equally frustrated.

His only advantage is that he does know how many visas have been used to date, but he only knows that as they are approved by USCIS and doesn't have any insight into future demand or any USCIS processing priorities.

For EB, that's a big problem, since USCIS process 90% of cases. I'm not surprised the message is rather confusing.

EB1 seems to be the most clear, to the point where Worldwide applicants have started to downgrade to EB2, which is still current.

FB is interesting. CO has good visibility of the numbers in the queue and all categories have been retrogressed to date. It seems applicants there are reevaluating whether they want to emigrate to the USA at all, possibly based on the negative atmosphere towards FB immigrants at the moment.

Because most FB categories are highly retrogressed and are consular processed, CO does have the ability to move both the FD and FAD forward by large amounts to generate demand and process them in time. Having said that, some under-utilization in FB is starting to look possible, which would help EB in FY2020.

I read a tweet from Cyrus Mehta that starting with the next bulletin the F2 category will be current across the board to increase utilization of available visas

[iatiam]

I read a tweet from Cyrus Mehta that starting with the next bulletin the F2 category will be current across the board to increase utilization of available visas

Interesting.

How long does it take to schedule and attend an interview for FB cases? Is three months enough time?

Iatiam

[gs1968]

I think that would depend on the consulates involved and I assume that it might be easier in some of the smaller countries. My personal experience for my mother last year when I applied through the NVC they arranged the appointment themselves at Mumbai and was about 6 weeks from approval. However as she was still staying with us here she could not attend the appointment in Mumbai and the rescheduling was a pain. The system was not user friendly online.

[saagar_is_cool]

My PD is Apr 17 2009 and we are current as of June 1, but I don’t see any updates like some members have reported. I know it is too much to expect too soon but my question is, what can I do from my side to get through the finish line. Any and all ideas are appreciated.

[march1612]

I am little confused with 14k count. Total movement in 2012 was around 2.5 years (2008,2009 and Jan-May 2010).

Is CO saying he has 14K applications from Jan 2009 to May 2010? If this is true, then with recent EB2-I movement (until April 2009) the count should have been reduced from 14k to somewhere around 10K?

[vyruss]

I am little confused with 14k count. Total movement in 2012 was around 2.5 years (2008,2009 and Jan-May 2010).

Is CO saying he has 14K applications from Jan 2009 to May 2010? If this is true, then with recent EB2-I movement (until April 2009) the count should have been reduced from 14k to somewhere around 10K?

Here is the monthly pending inventory from April 2009 to May 2010 (this is straight from the July 2018 pending inventory). It adds up to 14000.

Apr-09 649
May-09 1429
Jun-09 1411
Jul-09 968
Aug-09 801
Sep-09 1006
Oct-09 1127
Nov-09 1000
Dec-09 1148
Jan-10 1086
Feb-10 1074
Mar-10 1273
Apr-10 1244
Total 14216

[vyruss]

"My PD is Apr 17 2009 and we are current as of June 1, but I don’t see any updates like some members have reported. I know it is too much to expect too soon but my question is, what can I do from my side to get through the finish line. Any and all ideas are appreciated.'




If your Supplement J and I-693 are good, not much you can do the first week you are current. Sit tight. Pray and wait for updates. Maybe in a few weeks, you can raise SR if you don't see any action.

[vyruss]

EB1 seems to be the most clear, to the point where Worldwide applicants have started to downgrade to EB2, which is still current.

.

Spec, downgrade from Eb1 to Eb2 would require PERM and everything that goes with EB2 application. Not sure what percentage, if any, would take that route.

[karukon]

"My PD is Apr 17 2009 and we are current as of June 1, but I don’t see any updates like some members have reported. I know it is too much to expect too soon but my question is, what can I do from my side to get through the finish line. Any and all ideas are appreciated.'




If your Supplement J and I-693 are good, not much you can do the first week you are current. Sit tight. Pray and wait for updates. Maybe in a few weeks, you can raise SR if you don't see any action.

For Supp- J & I-693 had he received RFE yet ?

[Spectator]

Spec, downgrade from Eb1 to Eb2 would require PERM and everything that goes with EB2 application. Not sure what percentage, if any, would take that route.

EB2-NIW does not need a PERM and would be a viable route for many in both EB1A and EB1B. EB1A/B have been about 40%-50% of total EB1 historically. Whether that is different for ROW is impossible to say.

Although there is no PP for NIW, it's still potentially a far more attractive alternative to waiting, what is now, an indeterminate time in EB1.

That's where I would expect the downgrades to come from, rather than EB1C downgrading to EB2.

For ROW applicants, who might have previously pursued the EB1A/B route, it's practically a no-brainer to apply under EB2/EB2-NIW at this time. The time for a PERM (if required) is not significantly longer than the time required to pull all the information together and craft a good EB1A/B petition. Under EB2, they're practically guaranteed to be able to file an I-485 at the earliest opportunity, something that can no longer be said of EB1.

[jimmys]

CO mentions this, "if demand in EB-2 China remains steady, it may be possible to shift some of those numbers to EB-3 China."
As per my understanding, the numbers from EB-2 if available, go to the heavily retrogressed country in that category. So it should go to EB2-I? How can he say that numbers can be made available to EB3-C?

Please correct my understanding.

I think China is eligible get 2803 visas each in EB1, EB2, and EB3 category. If you add all those numbers, 2803 * 3 = 8409.

For example, If EB1-C uses 2803 and EB2-C uses only 2000 numbers, they can give, 8409 - (2803+2000) = 3606, visas to EB3-C.

[saagar_is_cool]

"My PD is Apr 17 2009 and we are current as of June 1, but I don’t see any updates like some members have reported. I know it is too much to expect too soon but my question is, what can I do from my side to get through the finish line. Any and all ideas are appreciated.'

If your Supplement J and I-693 are good, not much you can do the first week you are current. Sit tight. Pray and wait for updates. Maybe in a few weeks, you can raise SR if you don't see any action.

Yes, RFE for these was received last year around June 2018 and response was filed and shows received. When you say few weeks, is it two weeks or more ?

[bluelabel]

I think China is eligible get 2803 visas each in EB1, EB2, and EB3 category. If you add all those numbers, 2803 * 3 = 8409.

For example, If EB1-C uses 2803 and EB2-C uses only 2000 numbers, they can give, 8409 - (2803+2000) = 3606, visas to EB3-C.

China is eligible to receive 7% of total visas in Employment and Family based together. It's heavily retrogressed in all family categories so there is no under utilization here.

In employment based categories, EB1 and EB2 are retrogressed heavily so there's no under utilization here as well, how come EB3 china receives more than 2803 visas?

[vyruss]

EB2-NIW does not need a PERM and would be a viable route for many in both EB1A and EB1B. EB1A/B have been about 40%-50% of total EB1 historically. Whether that is different for ROW is impossible to say.

Although there is no PP for NIW, it's still potentially a far more attractive alternative to waiting, what is now, an indeterminate time in EB1.

That's where I would expect the downgrades to come from, rather than EB1C downgrading to EB2.

For ROW applicants, who might have previously pursued the EB1A/B route, it's practically a no-brainer to apply under EB2/EB2-NIW at this time. The time for a PERM (if required) is not significantly longer than the time required to pull all the information together and craft a good EB1A/B petition. Under EB2, they're practically guaranteed to be able to file an I-485 at the earliest opportunity, something that can no longer be said of EB1.

Thanks for the clarity. (as always)

[jimmys]

China is eligible to receive 7% of total visas in Employment and Family based together. It's heavily retrogressed in all family categories so there is no under utilization here.

In employment based categories, EB1 and EB2 are retrogressed heavily so there's no under utilization here as well, how come EB3 china receives more than 2803 visas?

Good question. I don't know that exact number of Chinese visas issued in each category. That's why I used the word "if" in my post.

[swordfish380]

Hello Spec

As per this law firm there was no check in this month with Charles

http://swlgpc.com/eng/may-2019-visa-bulletin/

SW Law Group, PC › eng › may-2019-v...
The Department of State Issues May 2019 Visa Bulletin - SW Law Group, PC
May 24, 2019 · There is no May 2019 analysis or predictions from Charlie Oppenheim, Chief of Visa Control and Reporting Division for the U.S. Department of ..

[swordfish380]

As per this law firm last check in was in April not in May?
https://www.sivisalaw.com/immigratio...lie-oppenheim/


Check-in with DOS's Charlie Oppenheim
June 4th, 2019

Posted By
Heather Sivaraman
Share
Check-in with DOS's Charl…
AILA's Department of State (DOS) Liaison Committee checks in each month with Charlie Oppenheim, the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at DOS for updates about Visa Bulletin progress. Oppenheim also provides analysis of current trends and predicts future visa availability. His predictions of Final Action Date movement are based on his analysis of movement in each category over recent months and cases that are currently pending at the USCIS National Benefits Center. AILA posted about the most recent check in on April 18, 2019. First, he answered some member questions. Then, he discussed his predictions for movement in family-based and employment-based preference categories.

Family-Based Preference Categories
Due to low demand over the past few months in family-based preference categories, Final Action Dates have generally advanced rapidly. If demand were to increase, however, it would lead to a lack of movement or potentially retrogression. In contrast with this steady forward movement in most categories, FB Mexico categories have not moved much due to high demand. Oppenheim does not expect movement for the rest of FY2019, and forsees some retrogression in some FB Mexico categories.

USCIS will provide more detailed projections for family-based preference categories in a few weeks.

Employment-Based Preference Categories
Because of a shift in policy that required EB adjustment of status (AOS) applicants to interview at USCIS District Field Offices which led to fears of longer processing times, there has been a significant increase in consular processing. Oppenheim predicts, however, that consular processing will decline soon as applicants become more comfortable with the new AOS interview process. As a result of these lower rates of USCIS office use for filing AOS applications, Oppenheim was concerned that the annual limit would not be reached. However, this was not the case.

Demand for EB-1 Worldwide remains consistent, and it is unlikely that it will return to 'current' for the remainder of FY2019. Oppenheim also predicts that EB-1 India will not advance and that the Final Action Date will return to February 22, 2017 at the start of FY2020. He expects EB-1 China to advance to May 8, 2017 in next month's visa bulletin.

Oppenheim predicts that EB-2 will remain current through the rest of the fiscal year. EB-2 China will advance to November 1, 2016 in the July visa bulletin, but Oppenheim warns that if demand increases, advancements in this category will slow down or stop. EB-2 India will likely advance slowly; demand is currently very high. There are 14,000 Indians with pending AOS applications filed in 2012. It is possible that lower EB-2 Worldwide demand will help this category advance this summer, but Oppenheim is unsure. USCIS assures AILA members that this situation is being closely monitored.

EB-3 Philippines will become current and EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Worldwide will remain current in July 2019 according to Oppenheim. He expects EB-3 China to advance to January 1, 2016 in July and notes that demand for this category is increasing. The Final Action Date for EB-3 India will not move forward next month, and Oppenheim is unsure when it be able to advance.

Final Action Dates for EB-4 will remain current for most countries except El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Mexico. Oppenheim predicts that Final Action Date for these countries will remain at July 1, 2016 for the rest of FY2019.

The Final Action Date for EB-5 China is likely to remain for the rest of the fiscal year. EB-5 Vietnam and EB-5 India will reach their per country limits next month.

For More Information:
Read the June 2019 Visa Bulletin here and our blog post about it here.

This blog post does not serve as legal advice and does not establish any client-attorney privilege. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact our legal team directly.

Find us on LinkedIn.

This information comes from a news release from the American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA Doc. No. 14071401).

Categories: Employment-Based AOS, Visa Bulletin
Tags: AOS, charlie oppenheim, eb-1, eb-2, eb-3, eb-4, eb-5, Oppenheim, uscis

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[Desi Dude]

Can anyone answer this question -

Husband primary on EB2 (PD 2010), wife dependent. Wife got EB3 and then EB2 approved. Wife interfile request approved. Should the new PD be EB3 (PD 2009) or remain as husband's PD?

[lville]

Really hope they at-least accept EAD dates this time. I moved from EB3-I to EB2-I (PD May 22,2009). Moved cross country, changed my job cuz my new employer promised to switch my petition from EB3 to EB2. This sux

[anfu02]

Really hope they at-least accept EAD dates this time. I moved from EB3-I to EB2-I (PD May 22,2009). Moved cross country, changed my job cuz my new employer promised to switch my petition from EB3 to EB2. This sux

So many poignant stories, nothing to show for in terms of GC. I have been in this country since fall of 2001, at first law firm didn't file on time, then I delayed it. Here I am after so many years still waiting for my GC. Hang in there!!

[Maxray]

July bulletin is out. No movement for Eb3, 5 days movement for EB2.

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...july-2019.html