EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[iatiam]

This is a strange comment, Desis wait for over a decade to get their green cards, they are not taking any route. All they want is to get it and move on with their lives. After being here for more than 17 years and still not greened, I can certainly empathize will all those folks before me and after me in the long and never ending line. Good luck to everyone.

Why do you say it is a strange comment? I just stated a fact. Country cap is a reality. Whether you wait two decades or use a EB1C route to make it quicker is a choice. I have personally seen a lot of people moving to Canada for an year and coming back to file in EB1C which is a misuse in my opinion. More people agree with me than disagree

[EB32010]

I said the downgrades are not going to impact Eb3 movement for FY19. Only when Eb3 dates move past May2010, we can see real impact downgrading.
Earliest that can happen would be Jan 2020 bulletin.

Why do you think it will be Jan 2020 (earliest you said) before it can hit May 2010? My expectation is it will reach March/April 2010 by Sept 2019.

[EB32010]

It is not as simple as that, let me put it this way; this is just a theory. Some people will be willing to take the risk. The percentage of people of doing this is debatable. If you suggesting this value will be close to 0, I am just disagreeing with that arbitrary number.

Ok let me put it this way. As you see from my username my PD is 2010 and I have many many friends who have EAD and still waiting for GC. They just laugh at the notion of downgrading. They will happily renew EAD for FREE and wait for GC to come in mail even if they have to wait for 2-3 years.

[EB22010Dec]

Ok let me put it this way. As you see from my username my PD is 2010 and I have many many friends who have EAD and still waiting for GC. They just laugh at the notion of downgrading. They will happily renew EAD for FREE and wait for GC to come in mail even if they have to wait for 2-3 years.

100% agree with by 'brother' EB32010. Same reaction from my friends as well.

[EB32010]

@Spec, first of all I appreciate everything you do for this forum. Your insights and data collection are invaluable for all of us.

I was looking at the PERM data you have posted. Especially for May, June and July of 2010. The PERM numbers for May, June and July are 1503, 1867 and 1598 respectively. So total number of PERM for these months are 4968. I understand that there might be duplicates on this and at the same time this doesn't include dependents.

So my question is, is it safe to assume that there are around 5000 people waiting for AOS for these three months? Or am I way off? I know you can't say for sure but can you predict at least ballpark number?

Appreciate everything you do for the forum.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Gurus

Need your opinions.

1. My current employer initially applied in EB3 with April 2010 PD.
2. I did my Masters and was promoted.
3. Upgraded to EB2.

Please provide me your inputs

Immediately use your EB3 PERM(I am assuming you have 2 PERMs) to apply for AOS the next time you are current.

[AceMan]

Why do you think it will be Jan 2020 (earliest you said) before it can hit May 2010? My expectation is it will reach March/April 2010 by Sept 2019.

If you want to look optimistically July 2019 bulletin might have dates beyond May 2010 PD. Once the dates go past May 2010, the true EB2 filers without EAD (the risk takers) and the dates current in EB3, will start downgrading and it takes about 6 months, or by January 2020, these downgrades will start impacting the Eb3 forward movement.


If March/April 2010 PD's happens on September 19 as per your expectation, the above scenario of downgrade impact will start to happen in March/April 2020

[srimurthy]

Cannot blame Desis or anyone. Chinese did it when they had that option. I think it is basic human behavior. You always try to find the shortest and easiest path.

With the economy and the administration, the risk are high to show continuity in employment till you get GC hence I feel everyone looks for stability and seek the opportunities or options that provide the best path.

[gcvijay]

If you want to look optimistically July 2019 bulletin might have dates beyond May 2010 PD. Once the dates go past May 2010, the true EB2 filers without EAD (the risk takers) and the dates current in EB3, will start downgrading and it takes about 6 months, or by January 2020, these downgrades will start impacting the Eb3 forward movement.


If March/April 2010 PD's happens on September 19 as per your expectation, the above scenario of downgrade impact will start to happen in March/April 2020

Are you saying that EB3 INDIA FAD dates will hold till April 2010 for this entire FY and at least for three months after this FY? Its going to be tough at what point do you think CO will realize there is a surge of downgrades and its time to retrogress EB3 and what date at that point will he retrogress EB3 INDIA to?

[AceMan]

Are you saying that EB3 INDIA FAD dates will hold till April 2010 for this entire FY and at least for three months after this FY? Its going to be tough at what point do you think CO will realize there is a surge of downgrades and its time to retrogress EB3 and what date at that point will he retrogress EB3 INDIA to?

CO said that USCIS have enough demand for this FY and the Filing dates are not accepted from Feb 19. There will be no surge in downgrades for FY 19.

[dev2010]

Hi,
My PD is Oct-2010 EB2 from previous employer. Currently my existing employer has started perm and it's in initial stages (PWD). The perm job desc qualifies for EB2. I am hoping that by the time my perm gets approved (hopefully not audited), I will have a clear idea of EB3 movement beyond May-2010. In that case I can make a decision to file my I-140 in EB3.

Does anyone think there can be a pushback from attorneys in this case for filing I-140 in EB3 although perm being EB2? This is not the downgrade as they don't have to amend I-140 or start a new perm.

Appreciate any feedback.
Thanks,
Dev

[excalibur123]

Are you saying that EB3 INDIA FAD dates will hold till April 2010 for this entire FY and at least for three months after this FY? Its going to be tough at what point do you think CO will realize there is a surge of downgrades and its time to retrogress EB3 and what date at that point will he retrogress EB3 INDIA to?

He doesnt like retrogression generally, so expect a slower and cautious movement in EB3 when he sees downgrades coming. So he has demand till Apr 2010 - but due to downgrades it will end up at somewhere 3-4 months earlier at the end of FY. Different story if there are EB2 spillovers which may discourage surge of downgrades.

[gcvijay]

He doesnt like retrogression generally, so expect a slower and cautious movement in EB3 when he sees downgrades coming. So he has demand till Apr 2010 - but due to downgrades it will end up at somewhere 3-4 months earlier at the end of FY. Different story if there are EB2 spillovers which may discourage surge of downgrades.

The next inventory numbers that they may or may not publish will define how Eb3 will move going forward. That will have monthly breakdown of how many ppl downgraded.

[AceMan]

The next inventory numbers that they may or may not publish will define how Eb3 will move going forward. That will have monthly breakdown of how many ppl downgraded.

Inventory numbers without field office information is basically useless for every category except EB2. Even for EB2 we can just subtract the standard 2804 from the July inventory till July bulletin. If Eb2 is getting any SO, the dates will move forward then.

[EB32010]

@Spec, first of all I appreciate everything you do for this forum. Your insights and data collection are invaluable for all of us.

I was looking at the PERM data you have posted. Especially for May, June and July of 2010. The PERM numbers for May, June and July are 1503, 1867 and 1598 respectively. So total number of PERM for these months are 4968. I understand that there might be duplicates on this and at the same time this doesn't include dependents.

So my question is, is it safe to assume that there are around 5000 people waiting for AOS for these three months? Or am I way off? I know you can't say for sure but can you predict at least ballpark number?

Appreciate everything you do for the forum.

Anyone else have any insights to this? Aceman/YT?

[AceMan]

Anyone else have any insights to this? Aceman/YT?

Dates are far out to make any thing useful out of this 9 year old data. Many from that list would have abandoned it as well.

[EB22010Dec]

Dates are far out to make any thing useful out of this 9 year old data. Many from that list would have abandoned it as well.

I think this is a very aggressive assumption.

I don't know ONE person that has abandoned their GC.

I think the 10-year wait is a norm now and every one is prepared for it, buying houses and moving on with life and filing an app every 3 years.

[excalibur123]

I think this is a very aggressive assumption.

I don't know ONE person that has abandoned their GC.

I think the 10-year wait is a norm now and every one is prepared for it, buying houses and moving on with life and filing an app every 3 years.

In fact it is other way round, more applications would have to be added. The PI for EB2 2009-10 was known from 2012 - I can imagine a number of unmarried applicants (esp US degree holders) who began process in 2009-10 and got current in 2012. So they would have dependent spouses to add now which is not reflected in PI.

The known PI for EB2 can easily be increased to additional 500 from just that.

[AceMan]

I think this is a very aggressive assumption.

I don't know ONE person that has abandoned their GC.

I think the 10-year wait is a norm now and every one is prepared for it, buying houses and moving on with life and filing an app every 3 years.

Last year USCIS gave us a list till April 2018 showing approved 140 primaries from India. We had about 216 K EB2's and 54 K Eb3's.
We can get how many approved perms - India from 2008 through to December 2017 is around 415K from Specs data.

What this points is on an average about 65-70 % of approved labor is successfully converted to 140.
And it is from that list of approved 140's, people abandon the petition, join a new company, spouse files separately, utilize an earlier petition scenarios will apply.

[2011Feb]

Here is the number of perm approved by year from 2009 to 2016 per OFLC (~270K). I'm not including 2017 because their 140 may not be approved by April 2018 considering 1 year perm approval and normal 140 processing.

2009 11387
2010 28930
2011 31273
2012 30278
2013 20930
2014 35092
2015 45776
2016 65095

This count is approximately matching the USCIS approved 140 primaries (~270K).
Is that fair assumption these many people are waiting in GC?
I know it's only primaries (with out dependents) also it may have duplicates too. Assuming duplicates amount is equal to dependents count.

Again, I'm not good at calculating GC backlog. Experts can correct me if I'm wrong

[2011Feb]

Here is the number of perm approved by year from 2009 to 2016 per OFLC (~270K). I'm not including 2017 because their 140 may not be approved by April 2018 considering 1 year perm approval and normal 140 processing.

2009 11387
2010 28930
2011 31273
2012 30278
2013 20930
2014 35092
2015 45776
2016 65095

This count is approximately matching the USCIS approved 140 primaries (~270K).
Is that fair assumption these many people are waiting in GC?
I know it's only primaries (with out dependents) also it may have duplicates too. Assuming duplicates amount is equal to dependents count.

Again, I'm not good at calculating GC backlog. Experts can correct me if I'm wrong

[alyoshv]

Hi AceMan,

You have the most accurate prediction till date. If you can please tell this

My PD is EB3 2010 October when do you think dates become current that I can apply for EAD not for GC just to get EAD alone ?

really helpful with your response.

Thank you

[toadie]

Last year USCIS gave us a list till April 2018 showing approved 140 primaries from India. We had about 216 K EB2's and 54 K Eb3's.
We can get how many approved perms - India from 2008 through to December 2017 is around 415K from Specs data.

What this points is on an average about 65-70 % of approved labor is successfully converted to 140.
And it is from that list of approved 140's, people abandon the petition, join a new company, spouse files separately, utilize an earlier petition scenarios will apply.

Also, lot of people seemed to have moved to Canada and to Australia. I am not sure they are coming back or their employer still would honor their role.

[tatikonda]

Hi All,

Nothing new here but looks like delays from USCIS is getting noticed by everyone one and being covered in news more than ever.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/imm...acklog-n968301

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuarta.../#4666f8782254

Thanks

[drop2ocean]

My company lawyer says I-140 amendment (EB3 downgrade) is not eligible for PP. I heard few stories of successful acceptance of PP with the receipt. Can anyone point me to any text/links/document that says I-140 PP is allowed with the receipt please ?