EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[gcconnect]

I don't think that most of them who upgraded to EB2 (with PD in 2009) have EADs and now they can file I-485 using EB3 I-140. Is this scenario under estimated ?

I am also thinking 70% of the EB3I to EB2I Porters , who does not have EAD will try to go back and file AOS in EB3, because EB2 takes time . This group in 2009 , 2010...will cover all the Quota for couple of years. Where is the chance for movement for EB3I? Did i miss anything because all Gurus expectation is EB3I will move fast because that is empty Queue.

[Nov2010]

I work for a fortune50 company, and the law firm(one of the big ones in the country) agreed to file downgrades.
Atleast there are 5-6 people in my company that I know of(there may be more) are getting ready to file or initiate the process. Most of them have PDs between Aug-2009 and April-2010. All these folks originally filed in EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
They would be filing 140 and 485 in parallel.
Also I heard the attorney was flexible and mentioned that either EB2 or EB3 application can be used down the road for the getting the actual GC ie;for FAD, not sure how that works. What I heard is EB2 job description can always be used to file in EB3, and not the other way round. So no additional PERM filing is required.

[smuggymba]

A few employers will be ready to reduce your GC time line from Years to Months by allowing downgrades.
Otherwise it will be a future threat to their business as you will have your own priorities/plans after getting the GC.
Unless you show a threat right now by moving to your old employer who will be ready to file I485 with old I140 (if you have one).
That's about Employer's community behavior.

For Big Lawyers it will be a onetime business to file downgrades but they loose regular future income as these guys gets greened hence they can say every reason to block it.
For small Lawyers they have a huge learning curve in downgrades and fear of RFEs due to current environment.
All in all this downgrades will not happen and hence the percentage factor I fixed is 25% (1 in 4).

It will take at least 2020 to get this settled by that time EB3I dates can swing to 2013 or even further into future.
I still emphasis that the EB3-I queue is a sparsely filled (almost empty) queue for my calculations.

This wait game has become a billion dollar industry now. Every one will resist for downgrades.
Imagine that these EB2India applicants alone can fund the border wall if there is a onetime fee asked for the faster GC.

Statistically, this can't be compared to China downgrades as their applicants size is just 10% of Indian applicants size.

very well put together. Lawyers are buying vacation homes in Bahamas since you're backlogged. Same with big company. I worked for Deloitte/Fragomen (which I'm guessing the previous poster was referring to) - if you're stuck, it helps them. If you're free. it helps you.

Do what you can to move ahead. I'm March EB2 2010 and I don't have any option to downgrade..so I'll just be waiting.

[bikenlalan]

There will be a small subset of people who missed the boat of filing and do not have EAD. They would be jumping on the first opportunity to file in EB-3. As the gap widens between EB2/3, more and more people will start jumping the bandwagon of downgrading. For the next few months people will play the waiting game to see what is happening, as we start hearing some success stories of downgrade, people who are tired of waiting in EB-2 will begin taking action. This FY, looks like dates should move steadily but should eventually stall in late 2010 to early 2011.
Now EB-2/3 should be looked as a single queue and hope that all the horizontal spillovers are applied to India and not moved to EB-1.

[dev2010]

Hi,
My PD is Oct-2010 EB2 from previous employer. Currently my existing employer has started perm and it's in initial stages (PWD). The perm job desc qualifies for EB2. I am hoping that by the time my perm gets approved (hopefully not audited), I will have a clear idea of EB3 movement beyond May-2010. In that case I can make a decision to file my I-140 in EB3.

Does anyone think there can be a pushback from attorneys in this case for filing I-140 in EB3 although perm being EB2? This is not the downgrade as they don't have to amend I-140 or start a new perm.

Appreciate any feedback.
Thanks,
Dev

[sanjeevtrivedi]

One estimate CO gave last month was it will take 5 years to clear all the cases in EB-2 I until Dec 2010. What would have been his assumptions. As we know there are approx 15K application (until Apr 10). And most likely there would be around 2000 cases per month from May- Dec 2010, which takes overall pending application 15K+16K= 31K application in EB2 I until Dec 2010.

31k without considering dependents in 5 years = 6000 application per year ( with dependents 12000)

What is his Rationale, is he considering that people from EB2 to EB3 will will downgrade. When we try to compare his statement with different data points, it does not make sense

Any one has a better perspective to share?

[NJMavarick]

A few employers will be ready to reduce your GC time line from Years to Months by allowing downgrades.
Otherwise it will be a future threat to their business as you will have your own priorities/plans after getting the GC.
Unless you show a threat right now by moving to your old employer who will be ready to file I485 with old I140 (if you have one).
That's about Employer's community behavior.

For Big Lawyers it will be a onetime business to file downgrades but they loose regular future income as these guys gets greened hence they can say every reason to block it.
For small Lawyers they have a huge learning curve in downgrades and fear of RFEs due to current environment.
All in all this downgrades will not happen and hence the percentage factor I fixed is 25% (1 in 4).

It will take at least 2020 to get this settled by that time EB3I dates can swing to 2013 or even further into future.
I still emphasis that the EB3-I queue is a sparsely filled (almost empty) queue for my calculations.

This wait game has become a billion dollar industry now. Every one will resist for downgrades.
Imagine that these EB2India applicants alone can fund the border wall if there is a onetime fee asked for the faster GC.

Statistically, this can't be compared to China downgrades as their applicants size is just 10% of Indian applicants size.

I am inclined to agree with YTEleven here. I think that there are not many EB2 folks whose PD is before May 2010 and who do not have an EAD. That is the reason we see the Filing Dates as April 2010 and will have the FAD move 3 months in the next few bulletins.

I think we all agree that in this FY, the FAD for EB3 will cross May 2010. Lets assume it does then how soon will people be able to downgrade? I am hearing mixed responses from people who I have spoken to. Some companies have outright refused to downgrade while some companies have agreed to. In that scenario 25% number put by YTEleven makes sense.

We also need to keep in mind that it will take at least 7-8 months for the I-140s to get approved. Do you think CO will be waiting for the approvals or will advance the dates further down? I am betting on EB3 FAD dates to move to 2011. If anyone thinks differently, please do lay it out here.

[swaugh]

I think we all agree that in this FY, the FAD for EB3 will cross May 2010.

I am betting on EB3 FAD dates to move to 2011. If anyone thinks differently, please do lay it out here.

2011 - I disagree, there is no basis to come to this conclusion.
CO says 'Up to 3 months" till May. It is not guaranteed to be 3 months every bulletin.

[NJMavarick]

2011 - I disagree, there is no basis to come to this conclusion.
CO says 'Up to 3 months" till May. It is not guaranteed to be 3 months every bulletin.

The reason I mentioned 2011 is because the approvals from downgrades will take some time to come in. Would you agree? In that case, lets take for hypothetical reason the dates are Jan 2010 in the May or June bulletin. Where do you think will the FAD dates be in the next 4 bulletins keeping in mind that demand has to be generated and what about spill overs? Downgrades will kick in only if its crosses May 2010 and will take 7-8 months to approve.

[vsivarama]

One estimate CO gave last month was it will take 5 years to clear all the cases in EB-2 I until Dec 2010. What would have been his assumptions. As we know there are approx 15K application (until Apr 10). And most likely there would be around 2000 cases per month from May- Dec 2010, which takes overall pending application 15K+16K= 31K application in EB2 I until Dec 2010.

31k without considering dependents in 5 years = 6000 application per year ( with dependents 12000)

What is his Rationale, is he considering that people from EB2 to EB3 will will downgrade. When we try to compare his statement with different data points, it does not make sense

Any one has a better perspective to share?

Sanjeev,

Here are a few mistakes made in the assumptions made above
i) The 15K till May 2010 already include the dependents. So no more additions to the numbers here.
ii) It's the july PI data (15k) and the predictions made by CO were a month or two old. So he probably has more accurate picture of the numbers left compared to everyone in this group.
iii) Going forward the average estimate (on the higher end) could be 1500 applicants per month (including dependents). I believe this because the country was still turning back from a recession and hence believe the number of applicants really ramped up from 2012 and onwards.
iv) I believe he was also factoring in some horizontal SO in his calculations as per the trend he expects to see plus ZERO upgades to EB2. I am not sure he was factoring in the downgrades to EB3.
v) There could be also be some redundancy where (estimating 30%) both the spouses have approved 1-140 (E.g. Myself and my wife)/ multiple applications or maybe some people have moved back to India or migrated to other countries like Canada.

Just my 2 cents to make sense of CO's prediction.

Siva

[AceMan]

One estimate CO gave last month was it will take 5 years to clear all the cases in EB-2 I until Dec 2010. What would have been his assumptions. As we know there are approx 15K application (until Apr 10). And most likely there would be around 2000 cases per month from May- Dec 2010, which takes overall pending application 15K+16K= 31K application in EB2 I until Dec 2010.

31k without considering dependents in 5 years = 6000 application per year ( with dependents 12000)

What is his Rationale, is he considering that people from EB2 to EB3 will will downgrade. When we try to compare his statement with different data points, it does not make sense

Any one has a better perspective to share?

2000 cases per month from May - Dec 2010 is a very high number considering the total perms for 2010 was around 22 K. Just not possible. Also note the fact it was a recession year.

His rationale is simple arithmetic. EB2 I has about 14,000 people waiting for GC till 2010. EB2 I gets 2804 visas a year. 14000/2804 will be 5 years.

[gcvijay]

2000 cases per month from May - Dec 2010 is a very high number considering the total perms for 2010 was around 22 K. Just not possible. Also note the fact it was a recession year.

His rationale is simple arithmetic. EB2 I has about 14,000 people waiting for GC till 2010. EB2 I gets 2804 visas a year. 14000/2804 will be 5 years.

Do you know why USCIS is not accepting the Filing date nor saying follow FAD's for employment based GC's?

[gcconnect]

If it takes 5 years to clear EB2I up to 2010, people go to any extent for downgrade . if it started from PERM also with ported date, it takes less time. so EB3 may move faster for some time but with high volume of EB2I to EB3I porting, possibility of dates may go back.

[AceMan]

Do you know why USCIS is not accepting the Filing date nor saying follow FAD's for employment based GC's?

Both CO and USCIS notified that they may not be respecting the filing date from Feb bulletin. It appears they have enough data to play with for this FY already.

[delguy]

I work for a fortune50 company, and the law firm(one of the big ones in the country) agreed to file downgrades.
Atleast there are 5-6 people in my company that I know of(there may be more) are getting ready to file or initiate the process. Most of them have PDs between Aug-2009 and April-2010. All these folks originally filed in EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
They would be filing 140 and 485 in parallel.
Also I heard the attorney was flexible and mentioned that either EB2 or EB3 application can be used down the road for the getting the actual GC ie;for FAD, not sure how that works. What I heard is EB2 job description can always be used to file in EB3, and not the other way round. So no additional PERM filing is required.

Sounds like the reply I got from my law firm that starts with F....

[gcvijay]

Both CO and USCIS notified that they may not be respecting the filing date from Feb bulletin. It appears they have enough data to play with for this FY already.

In that case what is delaying USCIS to say we are not respecting FD follow FAD's?

[bikenlalan]

In that case what is delaying USCIS to say we are not respecting FD follow FAD's?

I do not think there is a delay. As per USCIS, "We anticipate designating one of the two charts each month and linking to the relevant chart below within one week of DOS’ publication of the Visa Bulletin."

[gcvijay]

Ok. I guess they will be updating by end of Tomorrow as one week from Visa bulletin is tomorrow?

[bikenlalan]

Ok. I guess they will be updating by end of Tomorrow as one week from Visa bulletin is tomorrow?

By EOB Friday you should know. VB was released on 1/11.

[iatiam]

I am inclined to agree with YTEleven here. I think that there are not many EB2 folks whose PD is before May 2010 and who do not have an EAD. That is the reason we see the Filing Dates as April 2010 and will have the FAD move 3 months in the next few bulletins.

I think we all agree that in this FY, the FAD for EB3 will cross May 2010. Lets assume it does then how soon will people be able to downgrade? I am hearing mixed responses from people who I have spoken to. Some companies have outright refused to downgrade while some companies have agreed to. In that scenario 25% number put by YTEleven makes sense.

We also need to keep in mind that it will take at least 7-8 months for the I-140s to get approved. Do you think CO will be waiting for the approvals or will advance the dates further down? I am betting on EB3 FAD dates to move to 2011. If anyone thinks differently, please do lay it out here.

OR

1. The FAD for EB3 has never been ahead of EB2 until the next month's bulletin
2. It takes time to get I-140 approved

[iatiam]

I am also thinking 70% of the EB3I to EB2I Porters , who does not have EAD will try to go back and file AOS in EB3, because EB2 takes time . This group in 2009 , 2010...will cover all the Quota for couple of years. Where is the chance for movement for EB3I? Did i miss anything because all Gurus expectation is EB3I will move fast because that is empty Queue.

This has been my case as well and I shared my experience. I don't know what people in the forum do for a living, but I work in a non-IT field where attorneys have generally been good. The exceptions can be attributed to incompetency than evil. I think the narrative that employers and attorneys are pure evil is propagated by the organization that shall not be named and people somehow believe it

[excalibur123]

Any way to know how many EB3I folks waiting with PD APR 2009 - DEC 2009?
When the latest pending inventory was published, folks with PD APR 2009 - DEC 2009 in EB3I were not able to submit I-485.
Why do most of the gurus/experts think there are not many people with EB3I Priority Date in 2009?

I did back of the envelope calculations a while back and found there would be about 5K original EB3Is for this period (including dependents).

But how many of those ported or not, and how many could downport after porting, is not clear.

[swaugh]

Excalibur123 - thanks for your response.

Just curious how you got these numbers as EB3I folks in this period could not have filed for I-485 until recently.

[texas_]

I did back of the envelope calculations a while back and found there would be about 5K original EB3Is for this period (including dependents).

But how many of those ported or not, and how many could downport after porting, is not clear.

With FAD hit 2009 multiple times in the past for EB2I till July 2009 I guess. There would be very few cases if any didn't make it to 485 stage. not sure how many are waiting to file 485 between August 2009 and 30 April 2010 for EB2/3 I however.
I am sure with some forward movement in coming months for both EB2/3 CIS is still in gathering demand like 700 to 800 Visas per quarter. CIS would move FAD/FD both for a couple of months starting July or August 2019 Bulletins and stalled there for Sept 2019

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Do you know why USCIS is not accepting the Filing date nor saying follow FAD's for employment based GC's?

They usually take a honey moon period after VB is released and only then update. It should be coming any time now.