I think if the FAD moves beyond May 2010 for EB3 then would it be safe to assume that the FD for EB3 will be somewhere in 2011? Further, if USCIS decides not to consider the FD then how does it help 2011 EB3 folks? Would the dates not stall in 2010 because of downward porting?Originally Posted by AceMan
What am I missing? FYI, my priority date is mid-2011 and so trying to assess when will I be "current".
I don't think FD would be moving at all this quarter based on the noises we hear from USCIS and DOS. We are expecting the FAD to be around April 2010 in June bulletin and if there is not enough demand hoping them to push the dates out by a year similar to the movement we saw in April 2018. The stalling will come into the picture only after that in FY 20.
Given the conservative approach by CO, what makes you think that they will push the FAD date by a year into 2011? He might just push it by 6 months or less which can lead to downward porting and stalling of the dates. I am just trying to ascertain possibilities though I would be more than happy if he pushes it by a year into 2011.
Furthermore, when is the visa number considered allotted or used from the overall quota? Only when I-485 is approved or when the I-40 is filed when the priority date is current? The reason I ask is because I am thinking this would have an impact on the moving of the dates especially when porting kicks in.
thanks for your reply.
Guru's - Can you clarify whether interfiling (without switching from EB2-I to EB3-I) will be a feasible option for us to explore, so that we can file 1-485 when EB3-I FD becomes current for PD holders in 2010 and 2011.
It happened once in 2017 July, where the dates moved by 9 months, and in 2018 April where dates moved by 13 months. If the 3 months projected movement till May is materialized and even then there is not enough demand, I anticipate another 1 year movement for last quarter.
Visa number is considered allotted only after the approval.
I hope, whatever you saying turns out to be true but it can go either way! I am fairly confident that there would not be much demand until the May bulletin as dates would not have surpassed May 2010.
If Visa number is considered allotted only after approval and no premium processing is allowed for porting then would it not take in excess of 6 months for the porters to be even considered for EB3 and use the EB3 visa number? In that case, CO would definitely want to move the dates further down. If he does not do that then there is a high possibility of visa wastage in the last 2 quarters. Would you agree?
Are you implying that there aren't very many applications from July thru Sep 2009 (EB2I) as compared to May and June?
Based on July 2018 inventory these are the numbers for 2009,
April: 649
May: 1,429
June: 1,411
July: 968
August: 801
September: 1,006
As you can see there is a spike in numbers for May and June and then numbers come down dramatically. July and August we were deep in recession and this makes sense
Much downgrade demand till May 2010. Also 2009/10 were recession years, so general demand also expected to be low.
Yes, and that is why I am saying down porters are not going to be a factor for FY 19. Once the dates move past May 2010, we are in an un-chartered territory. Visa wastage, I don't think it will happen this FY.
I am one of those who believes that recession did not make an inch difference in no: of applications filed but that's not the topic I want to discuss. Thanks for the numbers. Can we assume that those numbers came down even further as of today?
we can take off 3k (1k last FY quota, 1k SO, this FY beginning quoata) numbers from the inventory.
These are old numbers. I would wait for the latest 485 inventory numbers to make more accurate predictions. It's interesting that they haven't released the inventory since last July. Pathetic to say the least!
This is exactly what i have been saying. I am expecting some EB3 SO to be stolen by EB2 folks this year also, like it has been happening the past few years.
Stolen.. ha ha.. u seem to be really pissed off at your wait time to get GC. Take it easy. You are not alone.
If you go read your statement again.. u will realize the absurdity of ur choice if words. no applicant has any say in Visa usage.. let alone steal anything.
Moreover most of the guys waiting in EB2 line are porters from EB3. If it is any consolation.. think of this as those guys getting their GCs for their original EB3 line (if they have not ported).
Everyone is trying to get out if this shithole wait. Some are doing EB1C..some are doing porting etc. 99% of people will take any oppurtunity to get their GC faster. Ultimately its DOS / USCIS / Laws of the. country that govern GC allocation. No body else has an iota of control.
So chill brother...
I am not EB3 porter.. but I have sympathized and supported their porting, even though it delays my EB2 DEC 2010 PD. I have looked at EB2 and EB3 as a single group for several years now.... therefore porting / incorrect GC allocation in these 2 categories does not bother me.
I have always felt that diverting some EB3 visas to EB2 is CO's way to balance the things. ( Whether it's right thing to do or not - answer would depend upon every one's personal situation/opinion).
I was looking at the PI at a high level and comparing the last two released inventory. The EB-2I inventory jumped for the months of May and June 2009, even though the USCIS was only accepting FAD for the bulletins released then. These PI numbers already seems fudged, do any of you think that USCIS botched up these numbers further to kinda slow down EB2 movement to trigger downgrades to EB3? They would have clearly known internally that EB3 has depleted inventory and dates would be moving ahead of EB2I.
You have to look at Jan 17, August 17 and July 2018 in that order for the PI to make sense.
April 17, Oct 17, Jan 18, April 18 released PI is inaccurate for EB2 India.
I would'nt trust the PI for anything. You may have noticed that there are less than 500 EB3I numbers upto 2009 April, which is the current PD. Unless there is a deluge of filings after the release of PI or they fudge the numbers, EB3I looks all set to be unable to utilize the SO fully even in this FY like in past few years.
I don't think its because of recession.
That's because of the EB2I people who missed the in boat in 2012 and have PD earlier than July 1st, 2009 has got couple of chance to file AOS, when the FD was first introduced back in 2015 and also in 2016. I think, the surge is just because the people after the July 1st 2009, did not yet get the 2nd chance to file AOS.
So there would be another 500 per month after July 1st, 2009 EB2I applicants waiting to file AOS. I think most of these people could be EB3 to EB2 porters and some of these would have filed AOS using their original EB3 I-140 this year (I personally know few of them who did this) .
Hi Aceman! I am with you. My PD is 10 Feb 2011. Until date i haven't looked into when the PD would become current. But currently, situational reasons while exploring options to get GC or move to Canada, i found from a colleague that EB3 has some hopes. Will I be able to file AOS if date of filing advances to first quarter and beyond of 2011? Or should i just move to Canada and pursue other opportunities ?
Is there some hope for the end of this year ? I refused to port to EB2 when i had the opportunity because i i knew everyone wanted to merge with the trend. I just kept it going...
The way I see it is that everyone who is stuck in the backlog is going to be an opportunist. If I had a chance to get my GC sooner using EB1, EB2, EB3 OR EBx..I would have done it. The long wait is indeed very frustrating!
OK! It seems, in the next 4 months we will see the FAD for EB3 reach APRIL 2010 or beyond. The optimist in me tells me that there will be a big jump of around 1 year which will make the FAD move to 2011. Now, this is when the x factor of downgrades will kick in.
However, thinking rationally it will take at least a month (minimum) for the both the companies (if they agree) and the porters to file their downgrade application. Add to that the burden of regular processing (6 months) for 90% of the porters (10% EB2 could already have a prior approved eb3 and might be with the same company). I am expecting some minor processing delays as well. It will take approx 7-8 months before any approvals come in.
In that case, would CO not advance the dates further? What will be the filing date if the FAD moves to 2011?
The original Eb2 filers in 2009 would have mostly done their AOS in 2012 except for a few unlucky people. The total PERMS for 2009 (both EB2 & 3) from Spec's list
(http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ina-amp-India) is 16672. Many from this list could have had a prior date as well and already dropped off.
The inventory for early 2009 reduced by close to 4000 in 2014 when the dates reached May 2009.
I really don't think the number of people waiting to do AOS in both EB2 and 3 is high. I am also considering the fact that EB3 FAD is projected to advance by 3 months till May.
I have a PD June 20-2010 [EB2] and still working for the same employer for the past 12 yrs. I contacted my attorney to prepare for Eb3 downgrade. She was telling me that I need to do PERM and then I-140 again. Is this true? After downgrade, will it be possible to go back to EB2 if needed?
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