EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[GCkaLADDU]

Well said. With due respect to YT, he is totally not understanding the level to which people would go to get a green card. We have used and abused the system like anything. Pre-adjucated 485s, fake resumes, fake MNC managers and fake organization charts. Do you think we would hesitate to down port.

Reality is that EB3 has not been consistently ahead of EB2 and it takes time to do all the paperwork. When the time comes, people would down port. There will be a weird situation with EB2 and EB3 swinging back and forth in one year's time.

Iatiam

I think YT's apprehension about down porting might be right. Thought I don't wish it on anyone, these are different times than when Chinese were doing it back in 2013-2014. The fear of H1B/I-140/etc rejections was not that widespread and it was pretty much a given thing that your petition would most likely get approved.

However, these are different times and all it would take is a few rejections associated with down porting to curb the enthusiasm of individuals/companies.

My two cents.

[excalibur123]

So, are you saying EB3I folks who become current in May VB will get their GC's in this FY? I know from last year a few friends who filed in May, got their Cards only AFTER October. Also remember, USCIS has been known to only honor the Filing Date erratically. The filing date has become nothing more than a placeholder.

You are right, the time from becoming current to getting GC is long enough that it spills over into next FY. But this is a relatively new issue due to interviews and greater scrutiny. So CO is building the demand early enough this year - people who file EB3 AOS from Oct - Feb based on filing dates would have initiated their processing and likely get their GC within the FY, as their FADs catch up with the filing dates.

USCIS honoring the filing dates is not erratic as of now because EB3 demand was not known. Once CO has enough numbers to make good decisions for rest of the year, he would stop advancing filing dates. He is well aware of likely spillover counts and expected downporting.

[EB32010]

You are right, the time from becoming current to getting GC is long enough that it spills over into next FY. But this is a relatively new issue due to interviews and greater scrutiny. So CO is building the demand early enough this year - people who file EB3 AOS from Oct - Feb based on filing dates would have initiated their processing and likely get their GC within the FY, as their FADs catch up with the filing dates.

USCIS honoring the filing dates is not erratic as of now because EB3 demand was not known. Once CO has enough numbers to make good decisions for rest of the year, he would stop advancing filing dates. He is well aware of likely spillover counts and expected downporting.

CO is worried not just for this year. He is worried about next year as well. In order for him to start allocating GC for FY20, he have to move DF dates starting April or May of this year.

[gcwait]

So, are you saying EB3I folks who become current in May VB will get their GC's in this FY? I know from last year a few friends who filed in May, got their Cards only AFTER October. Also remember, USCIS has been known to only honor the Filing Date erratically. The filing date has become nothing more than a placeholder.

I am not sure why you are comparing with last year. Last year people filed in May and hence they couldn't get the approval by year end. I am talking about the people who have filed in the First quarter of this FY. They will get remaining three quarters in the FY for the processing. Not all people will get the approval this FY, but a good percentage should get it. If you are following filing dates closely this year, you will see there is much a better coordination between DOS and USCIS now. In last check-in CO had mentioned that USCIS may not use FD starting next month and then USCIS posted the exact same update on their website.

[drop2ocean]

I’m awaiting Application filing date movement for i485 filing with a pd June 2010 EB2-I. The company was recently acquired another and went through name change. They are filing an amendment, my question is can I file amendment along with EB3 downgrade and concurrent 485 at the same time?

Yes, i am in the same boat. Attorney said they will be able to file the downgrade with the amendment

[sanjeevtrivedi]

Continuing my previous predictions by mid of next year EB3I dates will move to 2012.

My PD in June 2011 EB3-I. I thought it will become current early 2023. But not sure as EB2 downgrades may impact. What are everyone's thought on the same?

[YTeleven]

My PD in June 2011 EB3-I. I thought it will become current early 2023. But not sure as EB2 downgrades may impact. What are everyone's thought on the same?

Forget about 2023... you should get your GC by 2020. Only X-factor is the downward porting rate. Which I don't think an issue at-least for an year or two.
Lucky you didn't upgrade but don't curse down graders now, they suffered a lot due to upgrades earlier.

[gcconnect]

My PD is Nov 2010. EB3I got 140 and ported to EB2I. what are my chances for getting at least EAD. i am in this country for the last 12 years and still in H1B.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

He is well aware of likely spillover counts and expected downporting.

I wish 'he' was that 'well' aware. History suggests otherwise. EB3I has been losing SO visas to EB2I continuously over the previous few years because of miscalculation by CO. My prediction is that it will be no different this FY. We have no clue how much EB3I demand exists at this time because they have changed the format of the PI, which itself was always a set of fudged numbers. But at least it gave some idea of the backlog. The current PI gives us no idea of the backlog at all.

[AceMan]

Forget about 2023... you should get your GC by 2020. Only X-factor is the downward porting rate. Which I don't think an issue at-least for an year or two.
Lucky you didn't upgrade but don't curse down graders now, they suffered a lot due to upgrades earlier.

The porters won’t have an impact till the final dates in Eb3 moves beyond May 2010. I also did not upgrade in 2016 when I had a chance, as I realized for my Feb 2011 date Eb3 was most likely to be faster. I know Eb3 is basically subset of Eb2 skills and people who qualify will definitely downgrade.

[Raj0687]

My PD in June 2011 EB3-I. I thought it will become current early 2023. But not sure as EB2 downgrades may impact. What are everyone's thought on the same?

Forget about 2023... you should get your GC by 2020. Only X-factor is the downward porting rate. Which I don't think an issue at-least for an year or two.
Lucky you didn't upgrade but don't curse down graders now, they suffered a lot due to upgrades earlier.

My PD is around the same time, it feels good to hear at least for now, but 2020 sounds too optimistic.

[AceMan]

My PD is around the same time, it feels good to hear at least for now, but 2020 sounds too optimistic.

I would call it realistic. With the filing date advanced to April 2010, they would have been able to gauge the demand till Jan 2010 during the first quarter 19 for EB3, that would include the people who have ported to EB3 in the first quarter of FY 19. The official prediction is also 3 months movement per bulletin for the next 3 months. 2010 had very low count on PERMs, and was a recession year. So even with porting I would think the EB3 filers till May 2011 should be able to scrape through in 2020.

[ak7419]

@Aceman when do you think EB2I Sep 2009 would be current? I am losing hope that I would get it in the current FY.

[bikenlalan]

I have a EB2 PD of Feb-2011, and I had reached out to the head of HR at my company and the attorney separately with questions of starting the process of EB-3 downgrade. The Law firm may be in the top tier of law firms in the country, so am sure they may have come across this request from others as well. I did not get a single response from either my company or the attorney if they would even be willing to start the process.
I have not tried to push this yet, as my date is still further away and how this FY pans out for EB-3. I think, this may be the case with others as well, as they may be playing the waiting game for now but as dates move further, porting will increase.

I wish YT's prediction for 2011's getting greened in 2020 be true but, there may be increased motivation from EB-2's Nov 2009 and later to downgrade and maybe stall the Eb-3 movement in 2010, once the gap between FAD of Eb-2 and Eb-3 widens.

[kisvasa]

I would call it realistic. With the filing date advanced to April 2010, they would have been able to gauge the demand till Jan 2010 during the first quarter 19 for EB3, that would include the people who have ported to EB3 in the first quarter of FY 19. The official prediction is also 3 months movement per bulletin for the next 3 months. 2010 had very low count on PERMs, and was a recession year. So even with porting I would think the EB3 filers till May 2011 should be able to scrape through in 2020.

@Aceman, Agree with you, a lot of it depends on porting rate and how the officials treat the porting applications (positively / negatively). A question on the Filing dates though, if you are anticipating that EB3 Final Action Dates reaching May 2011 before end of 2020 (i hope you referred to FY2020 per USCIS) how do you anticipate the Filing Dates movement over the next few months leading to end of FY19 ?

[kisvasa]

I would call it realistic. With the filing date advanced to April 2010, they would have been able to gauge the demand till Jan 2010 during the first quarter 19 for EB3, that would include the people who have ported to EB3 in the first quarter of FY 19. The official prediction is also 3 months movement per bulletin for the next 3 months. 2010 had very low count on PERMs, and was a recession year. So even with porting I would think the EB3 filers till May 2011 should be able to scrape through in 2020.

@Aceman assuming that May 2001 filers will get greened by 2020 how do you anticipate the FILING DATES movement over the next few months leading up to FY19 end ? My date is 27-Apr-2011 on EB3 so desperately waiting to atleast get an EAD this year. Thanks !

[montyp80]

Continuing my previous predictions by mid of next year EB3I dates will move to 2012.

Hi YT, in your original projection, did you ever get to EB3I Jan 2014 dates? If so, by when? Sorry, I don't know how to get to that file. Thanks in advance.

[vbollu]

Hopes got raised with EB-3 fast movement, my PD is EB2 Nov 2011, is it better to downgrade to EB3 now or better to be continue on the same EB-2 line? will there be any chance to get current in next 2-3 years?

[swaugh]

Hi experts - what is the new USCIS requirement for employment based i-485 interviews?

An interview is required when the i-140 was filed after March 6 2017 (OR)
An interview is required when the i-485 was filed after March 6 2017.

Please clarify and thanks for your help.

[skpanda]

vbollu
"Hopes got raised with EB-3 fast movement, my PD is EB2 Nov 2011, is it better to downgrade to EB3 now or better to be continue on the same EB-2 line? will there be any chance to get current in next 2-3 years?"

U are long way out. I would recommend waiting for 2 or 3 VBs to see how to the filing dates move. I have a feeling that filing dates will stall in 2010 this FY (ends in Sep 2019). Next year there may be some rapid movement depending on how much inventory is cleared in this FY.

[vbollu]

vbollu
"Hopes got raised with EB-3 fast movement, my PD is EB2 Nov 2011, is it better to downgrade to EB3 now or better to be continue on the same EB-2 line? will there be any chance to get current in next 2-3 years?"

U are long way out. I would recommend waiting for 2 or 3 VBs to see how to the filing dates move. I have a feeling that filing dates will stall in 2010 this FY (ends in Sep 2019). Next year there may be some rapid movement depending on how much inventory is cleared in this FY.

thanks for your reply.

[texas_]

vbollu
"Hopes got raised with EB-3 fast movement, my PD is EB2 Nov 2011, is it better to downgrade to EB3 now or better to be continue on the same EB-2 line? will there be any chance to get current in next 2-3 years?"

U are long way out. I would recommend waiting for 2 or 3 VBs to see how to the filing dates move. I have a feeling that filing dates will stall in 2010 this FY (ends in Sep 2019). Next year there may be some rapid movement depending on how much inventory is cleared in this FY.

SK,
It appears to me that both EB2/3 I would end up receiving around 10K visas every year, and next FY. Off those visas 70% of them would be received by EB3.
Looks like EB3 FD would move into early 2011 by this FY i.e. Sept 2019

[AceMan]

@Aceman when do you think EB2I Sep 2009 would be current? I am losing hope that I would get it in the current FY.

May, June demand for EB2 is very high. From April to August we have about 5250 people waiting already. You need a horizontal SO of more than 3000 for the last quarter to get to your PD this FY. It is possible, but not very optimistic.

[AceMan]

Hopes got raised with EB-3 fast movement, my PD is EB2 Nov 2011, is it better to downgrade to EB3 now or better to be continue on the same EB-2 line? will there be any chance to get current in next 2-3 years?

Your dates are too far out to make a realistic decision now. You have another option if you want to try that. If possible, you can work out with your company, they can file a brand new perm (1 year time frame) once it is approved, file for 140 in EB3 premium if the dates are current (either for filing or final) at that time concurrently with 485. The advantage of this approach would be both your existing EB2 and the new EB3 petitions would be valid and based on the dates you can select what ever your best option would be then.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Hopes got raised with EB-3 fast movement, my PD is EB2 Nov 2011, is it better to downgrade to EB3 now or better to be continue on the same EB-2 line? will there be any chance to get current in next 2-3 years?

Check with your attorney if downgrading to EB3 means you have to abandon your EB2 Que. As far as I know, you can be in both ques at the same time.