EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[canada]

Happy new year guys. Lets hope for the first time EB filers in both 2 and 3 from this decade start getting their GC this year onwards.

The previous post from SWORDFISH predicts that EB2 will cross May 2009 by the end of 2020.

I remember you predicting it will cross August 2009 by the end of 2019. I am assuming financial year 2019 and not Immigration year starting from October 2019.

What is the reason?

Could you please explain?

[kb2013]

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[swordfish380]

The previous post from SWORDFISH predicts that EB2 will cross May 2009 by the end of 2020.

I remember you predicting it will cross August 2009 by the end of 2019. I am assuming financial year 2019 and not Immigration year starting from October 2019.

What is the reason?

Could you please explain?

There are 2100 485s for Apr and May of 2009.(per July inventory). Porting and prior months/years inventory approximately 1000. With no spill over you will clear Apr 2009 this fiscal.
With some spill over Aug 2009 is possible

[canada]

There are 2100 485s for Apr and May of 2009.(per July inventory). Porting and prior months/years inventory approximately 1000. With no spill over you will clear Apr 2009 this fiscal.
With some spill over Aug 2009 is possible

Thanks for replying
So last year there was no SO for EB2. How much SO is needed to clear August 2009?

[gcpursuit]

There are 2100 485s for Apr and May of 2009.(per July inventory). Porting and prior months/years inventory approximately 1000. With no spill over you will clear Apr 2009 this fiscal.
With some spill over Aug 2009 is possible

April 2009 has ~650 applications. Do you think they have already approved ~2200 applications in the first quarter? I was hoping we would get to mid May to end of May by end of FY2019. Not possible?

[AceMan]

The previous post from SWORDFISH predicts that EB2 will cross May 2009 by the end of 2020.

I remember you predicting it will cross August 2009 by the end of 2019. I am assuming financial year 2019 and not Immigration year starting from October 2019.

What is the reason?

Could you please explain?

For calendar year 2009 we had 10831 people in EB2 I by the last demand data in July 2018. The last quarter of FY 18 would have cleared around 800 +(assumption)

April , May 2009 got about 2840 which might take the entire year if there is no SO.

I factored in we might get about 2000 SO, and hence mentioned August 2009 for FY 2019 end.

However the movement for EB2 in the 2nd quarter did not materialize in January 19 bulletin. That would be the reason why Swordfish reduced his outlook. I think he meant May 2009 in 2019. 2020 looks like a typo.

[canada]

Thank you Aceman. So it’s all down to SO -otherwise I am probably looking at 2021

[AceMan]

Thank you Aceman. So it’s all down to SO -otherwise I am probably looking at 2021

I will take it yearly. We might still get some SO from EB2-ROW for FY 19.

[canada]

So let’s assume April, May 2009 are cleared in 2019, how many are waiting for June, July and August,2009? I want to get an idea if there is no spillover-how long this wait goes on

[gcvijay]

For calendar year 2009 we had 10831 people in EB2 I by the last demand data in July 2018. The last quarter of FY 18 would have cleared around 800 +(assumption)

April , May 2009 got about 2840 which might take the entire year if there is no SO.

I factored in we might get about 2000 SO, and hence mentioned August 2009 for FY 2019 end.

However the movement for EB2 in the 2nd quarter did not materialize in January 19 bulletin. That would be the reason why Swordfish reduced his outlook. I think he meant May 2009 in 2019. 2020 looks like a typo.

I believe spillover of 2000 wouldn't clear Aug 2009 and only clear June 2009.July and Aug 2009 will be cleared only with a spillover of 3000\4000.

[bluelabel]

Off-Topic:

Do Indian nationals travelling to USA via pairs on advance parole require French Airport Transit Visa? All the trackitt posts that suggest to get Airport Transit Visa are from 2017. I found following link which says since July 23, 2018, every Indian passport holder is permitted to go through the international zone of any airport in France without the need to present an Airport Transit Visa.

Can anyone who has traveled via pairs on advance parole recently confirm this? Many Thanks in advance!!

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/ind...isa-in-france/

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/fra...-transit-visa/

[canada]

I believe spillover of 2000 wouldn't clear Aug 2009 and only clear June 2009.July and Aug 2009 will be cleared only with a spillover of 3000\4000.

Wow!!!. It gets depressing day by day, the more I know. I never filed EAD and can’t downgrade to EB3 as I am in medical profession

[AceMan]

So let’s assume April, May 2009 are cleared in 2019, how many are waiting for June, July and August,2009? I want to get an idea if there is no spillover-how long this wait goes on

With very little or no SO,
Sept 2019 ---> 1st Jun 2009
Sept 2020 ---> 1st Oct 2009
Sept 2021 ---> Mid Dec 2009
Sept 2022 ---> 1st Mar 2010
Sept 2023 ---> 1st July 2010

The calculation is very simple, remove close to 3000 for each FY from the demand data.

[mcmilers]

Thank you Aceman
These numbers are depressing. lets just hope we get atleast some spillover to move these dates along faster every year.

[canada]

With very little or no SO,
Sept 2019 ---> 1st Jun 2009
Sept 2020 ---> 1st Oct 2009
Sept 2021 ---> Mid Dec 2009
Sept 2022 ---> 1st Mar 2010
Sept 2023 ---> 1st July 2010

The calculation is very simple, remove close to 3000 for each FY from the demand data.

Thank you Aceman. I really appreciate you taking time to give this information.

To find demand data- is the following link right one to calculate?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/..._July_2018.pdf

[AceMan]

Thank you Aceman. I really appreciate you taking time to give this information.

To find demand data- is the following link right one to calculate?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/..._July_2018.pdf

Yes, that would be the latest one albeit 6 months old.

[kb2013]

is there a report with number of pending consular processing cases grouped by country, month and year?

[imdeng]

I traveled through Paris a month back and can confirm that you DO NOT need transit visa to pass through CDG. You must be transiting out of Schengen area though - if you are connecting to another Schengen airport then you WILL need a Schengen visa.

Off-Topic:

Do Indian nationals travelling to USA via pairs on advance parole require French Airport Transit Visa? All the trackitt posts that suggest to get Airport Transit Visa are from 2017. I found following link which says since July 23, 2018, every Indian passport holder is permitted to go through the international zone of any airport in France without the need to present an Airport Transit Visa.

Can anyone who has traveled via pairs on advance parole recently confirm this? Many Thanks in advance!!

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/ind...isa-in-france/

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/fra...-transit-visa/

[infotalk]

If they clear till the end of April 2009 this year May 2009 should be cleared by the end of next year 2020.

That sounds very slow. They are already @ 1 April 2009 for EB2. Do you really think it will take them 1 year to clear 1 month for EB2 ?

[infotalk]

I will take it yearly. We might still get some SO from EB2-ROW for FY 19.

Historically for last 5 years what spillover did we get in EB2 category ?
Where do we get this spill over from ? Every year does the spill over come from the same category ?

[AceMan]

Historically for last 5 years what spillover did we get in EB2 category ?
Where do we get this spill over from ? Every year does the spill over come from the same category ?

EB3 India got nothing from EB2 for over a decade. Something if you count the upgrade from EB3 to EB2. The only SO available for the last 3-4 years is just horizontal SO.

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...l-reports.html
=========EB3 , EB2
For 2010 ---> 3036, 19961
For 2011 ---> 4002, 23997
For 2012 ---> 2804, 19726
For 2013 ---> 7816, 17193
For 2014 ---> 3526, 23527
For 2015 ---> 7026, 7235
For 2016 ---> 4617, 3930
For 2017 ---> 6641, 2879

[qesehmk]

EB3 India got nothing from EB2 for over a decade.

EB3 stopped getting anything from EB2 when USCIS were forced to prioritize horizontal spillover over vertical. So yes this is true after about 2009/2008 timeframe.

p.s- Technically EB3 ROW did receive some EB2 visas a few years back for S Korea. That was outrageous and illegal but as always there wasn't much outcry over that.

[bluelabel]

I traveled through Paris a month back and can confirm that you DO NOT need transit visa to pass through CDG. You must be transiting out of Schengen area though - if you are connecting to another Schengen airport then you WILL need a Schengen visa.

Thank you. It helps.

[texas_]

Would be Visa Bulletin impacted due to partial shutdown?
I am sure USCIS works but not sure DHS visa bulletins be impacted or not??

[swordfish380]

Would be Visa Bulletin impacted due to partial shutdown?
I am sure USCIS works but not sure DHS visa bulletins be impacted or not??

USCIS is working. I received a text for submitting EAD renewal. On liter side, if they stopped conducting interviews,there will be spill over at the end of the year.