EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[AceMan]

Thanks Boss, So the numbers of PERM for 2009 and 2010 would be the calendar year numbers 16,672 and 22362.


Thanks once again for providing the link to the chart and maintaining it.

[Spectator]

Thanks Boss, So the numbers of PERM for 2009 and 2010 would be the calendar year numbers 16,672 and 22362.


Thanks once again for providing the link to the chart and maintaining it.

That's correct.

Someone, will I'm sure, point out that using the PERM A number is not a precise indicator of the PD. That's certainly true at the individual case level, but it's really the only way to look at the PD and I believe over a large data set (nearly 1 million records) the errors even out.

Recently, OFLC have started publishing the "Received Date" in the complete data dump, which should be the PD. I don't use it (a) to retain consistency over the entire data set and (b) because there are too many anomalous dates in the OFLC data.

I hope you find the data useful. The trick, of course is interpreting it - probably an impossible task.

[gcvijay]

Thanks Spec. So when the Inventory numbers say that the EB2 INDIA for 2009 is 11K instead of 16K for both EB2 and EB3 it means that people 16-11 ~ 5k upgraded from EB3 to EB2 and also those who have both EB2 and EB3 via the same or different employer. Also, any chance on a data on month wise priority dates labor cert data to find the 16K spread?

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec. So when the Inventory numbers say that the EB2 INDIA for 2009 is 11K instead of 16K for both EB2 and EB3 it means that people 16-11 ~ 5k upgraded from EB3 to EB2 and also those who have both EB2 and EB3 via the same or different employer. Also, any chance on a data on month wise priority dates labor cert data to find the 16K spread?

No, it has nothing to do with upgrading at all.

The 11k figure was the number of PERM OFLC certified in FY2009. The 11k was made up of several different PD years.

The 16k figure is the number of PD 2009 PERM certified over a number of different FY. The number of PERM certified for a PD CY is broken down monthly in the FACTS & DATA section. I gave the link to that in my recent reply to Aceman. Here it is again.

[AceMan]

That's correct.

Someone, will I'm sure, point out that using the PERM A number is not a precise indicator of the PD. That's certainly true at the individual case level, but it's really the only way to look at the PD and I believe over a large data set (nearly 1 million records) the errors even out.

Recently, OFLC have started publishing the "Received Date" in the complete data dump, which should be the PD. I don't use it (a) to retain consistency over the entire data set and (b) because there are too many anomalous dates in the OFLC data.

I hope you find the data useful. The trick, of course is interpreting it - probably an impossible task.

Man, the data you have is platinum. Yes, that means with the correct interpretation, else the same elements can be found in Graphite too. I am like a baby in the candy shop.

[Raj0687]

worth looking, if you are planing EB2->EB3 route.

http://nairlaw.com/blog/posts/12

[excalibur123]

Man, the data you have is platinum. Yes, that means with the correct interpretation, else the same elements can be found in Graphite too. I am like a baby in the candy shop.

What does it mean for the 2009 calculations though ? 16K PDs less dupes multiplied by 2.1 for dependents less numbers issued in 2014 - are we looking at around 25K numbers for 2009 ?

That doesn't seem to tie out with PI which for EB2 was 11k plus around EB3 6K = 17-18K. So something is amiss.

[AceMan]

What does it mean for the 2009 calculations though ? 16K PDs less dupes multiplied by 2.1 for dependents less numbers issued in 2014 - are we looking at around 25K numbers for 2009 ?

That doesn't seem to tie out with PI which for EB2 was 11k plus around EB3 6K = 17-18K. So something is amiss.

If some perm was for people who changed jobs and filed during that time, they would have already been out of that list. Since it is 2009, I tend to believe that 40 % of that list would be not there(abandoned/ already greened/husband-spouse on H1/Eb1) as we are looking at it in 2018.

That is the reason for my optimism earlier that EB3 I dates are poised to move in December, and big jump in the 2nd quarter.

[EB2/eb3]

How did u come up with that 6k count for eb3? Just a guess?

[excalibur123]

How did u come up with that 6k count for eb3? Just a guess?

I did a few calculations based on dol data a few months back.

[aquatican]

Gurus, does the Pending Inventory for Oct come out in Oct or usually delayed?

[Spectator]

Gurus, does the Pending Inventory for Oct come out in Oct or usually delayed?

Last year's October Inventory was created and published on November 15.

[AceMan]

I did a few calculations based on dol data a few months back.

I did some analysis on the data provided by S, and here is some of my analysis and assumptions. From late 2010 PERM delays came down drastically. There is a high chance that majority of PERMS approved for 2008 and 2009 would be a job change or an upgrade petition.

So if I run my theory, the PERM numbers 55 (2007), 1396(2008), 1434(2009) approved in 2011 can be inferred as an upgrade. I would say this would be a decent assumption till 2013. The numbers started backing up again from 2014.

That means for 2009, the distinct PD's would be 8 + 15054 + some from 2011 (1434) for both EB2 and 3. I am inclined to ball park it to 15500. We had about 4000 total cleared till May 2009 in 2014. 1 dependent per primary, will reduce 2000 from 15500 which means 13500. Another 10831 (total) as per July PD. Another assumption of 5000 primaries in that, will indicate that we have about 8500 primaries for 2009 yet to do AOS in EB2 and 3.

What do you think of 8500 approved I140's waiting to do AOS for both EB2 and 3 in 2009?

[newsletter1978]

Hello Gurus, please provide your opinion. My EB2 PD is Oct 27 2009, if EB3 filing date or final action date becomes active for this PD, do you think i should wait for EB2 PD as it seems close but God knows when it will reach Oct 2009 or should i try to convert to EB3.

[idliman]

Hello Gurus, please provide your opinion. My EB2 PD is Oct 27 2009, if EB3 filing date or final action date becomes active for this PD, do you think i should wait for EB2 PD as it seems close but God knows when it will reach Oct 2009 or should i try to convert to EB3.

I believe you will receive your GC only after OCT2019 if you stay in EB2I. If you are confident that EB3I will not retrogress for your dates, you can port. It all depends on how quickly you become current in EB3I.

[nicky_0530]

Looks like there's some good news ahead for EB3-I with CO's monthly updates ahead of the December bulletin on what to expect. Here's the link to the update from CO:

https://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2018...significantly/

[excalibur123]

Hello Gurus, please provide your opinion. My EB2 PD is Oct 27 2009, if EB3 filing date or final action date becomes active for this PD, do you think i should wait for EB2 PD as it seems close but God knows when it will reach Oct 2009 or should i try to convert to EB3.

My view is the lines should be seen as combined one for EB2 and EB3 as far as FAD is concerned - the dates would now be very close to each other. I don't buy into the talk of EB3 running far ahead of EB2. At most it would be ahead by a couple of weeks.

So if you already have EAD there is no real use for you to downgrade.

[bikenlalan]

I have a Feb-2011 EB2 priority date and have been watching this forum with discussions on Eb2->Eb3 downgrade. The dates for EB3 may not move that far in the near future but does it make sense to ask my employer to initiate an EB3 petition at this time? I have not spoken to the counsel yet about this and not sure if they would be willing to downgrade, but wanted to get thoughts from others on this forum. IMO, it makes sense to wait for a few bulletins to see how the dates move, but should I get a head start with the I-140, knowing I can also file concurrently with 485 when dates get current? I am on H-1b, good until Nov-2020 and would at least like to get the EAD/AP for all the reasons surrounding the future trend of H-1.

[excalibur123]

I have a Feb-2011 EB2 priority date and have been watching this forum with discussions on Eb2->Eb3 downgrade. The dates for EB3 may not move that far in the near future but does it make sense to ask my employer to initiate an EB3 petition at this time? I have not spoken to the counsel yet about this and not sure if they would be willing to downgrade, but wanted to get thoughts from others on this forum. IMO, it makes sense to wait for a few bulletins to see how the dates move, but should I get a head start with the I-140, knowing I can also file concurrently with 485 when dates get current? I am on H-1b, good until Nov-2020 and would at least like to get the EAD/AP for all the reasons surrounding the future trend of H-1.

Don't want to disappoint you but you are looking at atleast 4 years wait. Min. 1 year to clear out 2009 and another 3 years for 2010. Regardless of whether you are EB2 or EB3.

[simplygc123]

Please make sure your former employer is open to the idea of filing 485 for your EB3 petition. This would be your backup plan. Set this correctly first. He might insist on you coming back to him on H1, but make that decision only after seeing the December bulletin.

My PD is Dec 23 2009 EB2 (Current Employer) and ported from EB3 (Old Employer).

My current employer said I can file supplement J form and file my 485 if PD becomes Dec 24 th 2009.

I checked my I 140's in EB3 & EB2. Both are valid.

So is it possible to file my EAD with my current employer in EB3 with the supplement J form.

Thanks

[rocketfast]

Don't want to disappoint you but you are looking at atleast 4 years wait. Min. 1 year to clear out 2009 and another 3 years for 2010. Regardless of whether you are EB2 or EB3.

Based on Spec's PERM data, there are 22,361 people with a PD of 2010 (EB2 + EB3). So a total GC demand of 44,000. If EB2+Eb3 continues to get 10,000 GC a year, it will indeed take 4 years to clear just 2010. In worst case, if EB2+EB3 just receives 5600 GCs a year, then it will take 8 years to clear 2010.

But Q thinks that there is ~40% demand destruction. That is our best case scenario. In that case, there is a GC demand of ~26400. If we continue to get 10,000 GC a year, it takes 2.5 years to clear 2010. The worst case is 5 years.

I won't hold my breath

[excalibur123]

Based on Spec's PERM data, there are 22,361 people with a PD of 2010 (EB2 + EB3). So a total GC demand of 44,000. If EB2+Eb3 continues to get 10,000 GC a year, it will indeed take 4 years to clear just 2010. In worst case, if EB2+EB3 just receives 5600 GCs a year, then it will take 8 years to clear 2010.

But Q thinks that there is ~40% demand destruction. That is our best case scenario. In that case, there is a GC demand of ~26400. If we continue to get 10,000 GC a year, it takes 2.5 years to clear 2010. The worst case is 5 years.

I won't hold my breath

Very well put. Add 1-1.5 year for 2009 and you have best case 4 years to cross into 2011.

But do we know the source of the number 40% demand destruction? Has that been verified by comparing the PD data and actual GCs issues for any historical years? 40% seems way too high to me - I would like to put 15-20% as my guess.

[TheLureoftheGreen]

Looks like there's some good news ahead for EB3-I with CO's monthly updates ahead of the December bulletin on what to expect. Here's the link to the update from CO:

https://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2018...significantly/

Hey Folks - Any predictions on EB2 India FA / FD dates over the next 6 months? My PD is early July 2009, but I am wondering whether I should request my employer to file an I-140 amendment to use EB3 dates (assuming EB3 FA does indeed move past my PD in the coming months).

Cheers!

[rocketfast]

Very well put. Add 1-1.5 year for 2009 and you have best case 4 years to cross into 2011.

But do we know the source of the number 40% demand destruction? Has that been verified by comparing the PD data and actual GCs issues for any historical years? 40% seems way too high to me - I would like to put 15-20% as my guess.

Q no longer provides micro-analysis. I took it as a statement made after strong considerations and added it in my if-else condition.

[redsox2009]

Not sure if this was posted.

Annual Numerical Limits 2019

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...-%20FY2019.pdf



Preference China* All Others Worldwide
E1 2,803 2,803 40,040
E2 2,803 2,803 40,040
E3/EW 2,502 2,802 40,040**
E4/SR 692 696 9,940
E5 0 696 9,940
Total 8,800* 9,800 140,000