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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #3751
    Quote Originally Posted by canada View Post
    I have receipt notice, priority date and notice date on my immigration approval notice.
    I am not sure if you should reach out to your attorney and see if you can get it corrected, provided it is possible.

    http://hammondlawgroup.com/healthcar...ty-date-wrong/

  2. #3752
    Spec maintains a "Trackitt comparision" data - which gives us a historic multiplier factor from trackitt entries to actual approvals. The most recent is here:
    http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2014-vs-FY2013

    The "multiplication factor" is anywhere between 20 to 30. As of today, looks like there are 140 "active" cases in EB3-I in Trackitt between Aug 2007 to Oct 2009.
    So going by history, the total number of EB3-I between Aug 2007 to Oct 2009 could be anywhere between 2800 to 4200. Looks like we still have some run up of dates needed to have a demand of 6500 GCs for this year.

  3. #3753
    Quote Originally Posted by rocketfast View Post
    Spec maintains a "Trackitt comparision" data - which gives us a historic multiplier factor from trackitt entries to actual approvals. The most recent is here:
    http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2014-vs-FY2013

    The "multiplication factor" is anywhere between 20 to 30. As of today, looks like there are 140 "active" cases in EB3-I in Trackitt between Aug 2007 to Oct 2009.
    So going by history, the total number of EB3-I between Aug 2007 to Oct 2009 could be anywhere between 2800 to 4200. Looks like we still have some run up of dates needed to have a demand of 6500 GCs for this year.
    Don’t count Downgraders out. So that may be it for dates.

  4. #3754
    Per New USCIS Policy effective 01NOV18, I-693 (Medicals) are valid for 2 years from the date surgeon signed it. Must be submitted within 60 days of Surgeon's signature.
    https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/us...-manual-update

    USCIS Policy Manual Update

    USCIS is revising policy guidance for the validity period of Form I-693, Report of Medical Examination and Vaccination Record.

    The updated policy, which goes into effect on Nov. 1, 2018, will require applicants to submit a Form I-693 that is signed by a civil surgeon no more than 60 days before filing the underlying application for an immigration benefit. The Form I-693 would remain valid for a two-year period following the date the civil surgeon signed it. As such, USCIS is retaining the current maximum two-year validity period of Form I-693, but calculating it in a different manner to both enhance operational efficiencies and reduce the number of requests to applicants for an updated Form I-693.

    USCIS officers use Form I-693, Report of Medical Examination and Vaccination Record, to determine whether an applicant for an immigration benefit in the United States is inadmissible under the health-related grounds of inadmissibility. By specifying that the Form I-693 must be signed no more than 60 days before the applicant files the underlying application for which Form I-693 is required, the validity of the form is more closely tied to the timing of the underlying application.

    Additionally, requiring submission of a Form I-693 that was signed no more than 60 days before the date the underlying application was filed may, in some cases, maximize the period of time Form I-693 will be valid while the underlying application is under USCIS review. Officers will still have the discretion, as they have always had, to request a new Form I-693 if they have reason to believe an applicant may be inadmissible on the health-related grounds. Delays in adjudicating the underlying application will also be reduced if fewer requests for updated Forms I-693 are necessary.

    Please see the Policy Alert (PDF) for more detailed information regarding this update and how USCIS will handle a Form I-693 submitted before Nov. 1, 2018.

    Visit the Policy Manual for Comment page for more information on stakeholder review and comments, which are due by Oct. 29, 2018.

  5. #3755
    Sensei
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    Wait - is that something positive from USCIS ? First time in this Presidency perhaps ?

  6. #3756
    Quote Originally Posted by newyorker123 View Post
    Wait - is that something positive from USCIS ? First time in this Presidency perhaps ?
    On January 2009 EB3 I PD -> 15OCT01
    On January 2017 EB3 I PD -> 15MAR05 (8 years -> 3 years and 6 months movement).

    =>H4EAD in the registry since 2010, a totally diluted version delivered in 2015 absolutely no use for aging out kids going to College, some benefit for spouses, I140-EAD lot of fanfare and efforts to modernize resulting in nothing.

    On August 2018 EB3 I PD -> 01JAN09 (19 months -> 3 years and 9 and 1/2 months movement)


    Just to say perspective of Presidency can vary among individuals.

  7. #3757
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Per New USCIS Policy effective 01NOV18, I-693 (Medicals) are valid for 2 years from the date surgeon signed it. Must be submitted within 60 days of Surgeon's signature.
    https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/us...-manual-update
    No, it does not mean that at all. It means that the I-693 should not be dated 60 days prior to the filing of I-485. There is a huge difference. For those on EAD, the 2 yr validity is useful and the 60 day clause is irrelevant because they have already filed their AOS. For those who are filing AOS fresh, it means that they need to file AOS with I-693 within 60 days of the date of I-693.

  8. #3758
    Quote Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar View Post
    No, it does not mean that at all. It means that the I-693 should not be dated 60 days prior to the filing of I-485. There is a huge difference. For those on EAD, the 2 yr validity is useful and the 60 day clause is irrelevant because they have already filed their AOS. For those who are filing AOS fresh, it means that they need to file AOS with I-693 within 60 days of the date of I-693.
    Sorry I am not good at "legalese". I said, "(Medicals) are valid for 2 years from the date surgeon signed it" and "must be submitted within 60 days of Surgeon's signature". I believe this is correct for people on EAD and already in I485 Queue. Is there something that I misinterpreted?

  9. #3759
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    Quote Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar View Post
    No, it does not mean that at all. It means that the I-693 should not be dated 60 days prior to the filing of I-485. There is a huge difference. For those on EAD, the 2 yr validity is useful and the 60 day clause is irrelevant because they have already filed their AOS. For those who are filing AOS fresh, it means that they need to file AOS with I-693 within 60 days of the date of I-693.
    I am not sure how the 2 year validity is useful? Wouldn't the medicals be expired when AOS is pending more than 2 years?

    Having said that whether you are on EAD or H1B with AOS pending >2 years would expect an RFE from USCIS?

  10. #3760
    The 2 year validity is useful because It is one more year than the 1 year validity.

    Quote Originally Posted by march1612 View Post
    I am not sure how the 2 year validity is useful? Wouldn't the medicals be expired when AOS is pending more than 2 years?

    Having said that whether you are on EAD or H1B with AOS pending >2 years would expect an RFE from USCIS?

  11. #3761
    Yoda
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    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    On January 2009 EB3 I PD -> 15OCT01
    On January 2017 EB3 I PD -> 15MAR05 (8 years -> 3 years and 6 months movement).

    =>H4EAD in the registry since 2010, a totally diluted version delivered in 2015 absolutely no use for aging out kids going to College, some benefit for spouses, I140-EAD lot of fanfare and efforts to modernize resulting in nothing.

    On August 2018 EB3 I PD -> 01JAN09 (19 months -> 3 years and 9 and 1/2 months movement)


    Just to say perspective of Presidency can vary among individuals.
    And the H4 EAD can be all but gone next year.

  12. #3762
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Sorry I am not good at "legalese". I said, "(Medicals) are valid for 2 years from the date surgeon signed it" and "must be submitted within 60 days of Surgeon's signature". I believe this is correct for people on EAD and already in I485 Queue. Is there something that I misinterpreted?
    I just re-read the link and you are right, about the 60 day validity from signature. That was not there before.

  13. #3763
    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    And the H4 EAD can be all but gone next year.
    I would expect it to stay in the registry for 2 more years. The best line added to the rule making. Some US citizens "may" be benefited by this!!!

  14. #3764
    I submitted my Medicals late September for the 485 RFE . Will that we valid for two years or will only those submitted after Nov 1st.
    Thanks

  15. #3765
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    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    I would expect it to stay in the registry for 2 more years. The best line added to the rule making. Some US citizens "may" be benefited by this!!!
    In our case, it is actually the opposite If the H4 EAD certainty was there, my wife would have started her dental clinic and employed 4-5 people. Instead, she is working as an associate and potentially taking a job from a US citizen.

  16. #3766
    Quote Originally Posted by Moveon View Post
    I submitted my Medicals late September for the 485 RFE . Will that we valid for two years or will only those submitted after Nov 1st.
    Thanks
    The medicals are valid for one year from the day you took the medicals. The clock starts the moment you leave the doctors office, not when USCIS receives it.

  17. #3767

    How to choose between EB2 and EB3 GC application

    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    I am not sure if you should reach out to your attorney and see if you can get it corrected, provided it is possible.

    http://hammondlawgroup.com/healthcar...ty-date-wrong/
    Hi AceMan

    If you don't mind sparing few minutes to read my case and provide your 2 cents, it would really help.

    My past employer (employer A) first applied my GC in EB3 (deliberately so that he can exploit me for more time, when he knew for my profile EB2 is the right category). After a lot of noise from my side, he agreed to file GC in EB2. Soon after that I joined employer B and he has filed my GC in EB2. My priority date is end of July 2010. I am currently working in EVC model. My question was what should I do in this situation?
    1. Should I ask my current employer to file in Eb3 in anticipation of EB3 leap frogging ahead of EB2? The problem is most probably he may not agree at least now.
    2. I have heard that when the date becomes correct one can actually do a concurrent filing of downgrading from EB2 to EB3 along with application for EAD+AP and GC. Is this even possible?
    3. If my current employer does not agree to apply in EB3 and the date becomes current (for EB3) then what should I do? Would it be a safe option to have employer A apply my EB3 GC and on the side I continue working with employer B on H1? The only issue which I am worried about in this option is to produce the job offer for GC. My old employer would be willing to hire me but I guess if it is a EVC model then I would have to produce a client letter - is that a correct assessment.

    Please provide your input whenever you have time.

    Thanks in advance.

    Cheers.

  18. #3768
    Quote Originally Posted by vyruss View Post
    The medicals are valid for one year from the day you took the medicals. The clock starts the moment you leave the doctors office, not when USCIS receives it.

    @vyrus , I do realize that it is valid from the day the doctor signs it . When I submitted it the medicals were valid for 1 year. Now looks like it is valid for 2 for those who will submit in November. Will that be with retrospective effect . IOWs will mine be valid until Sept 2020 ?

  19. #3769
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    I have updated the PERM section of the FACTS & DATA with the official PERM figures for FY2018.

    The selected statistics can be found here.

    The full download can be found here.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  20. #3770
    Quote Originally Posted by harshrk View Post
    Hi AceMan

    If you don't mind sparing few minutes to read my case and provide your 2 cents, it would really help.

    My past employer (employer A) first applied my GC in EB3 (deliberately so that he can exploit me for more time, when he knew for my profile EB2 is the right category). After a lot of noise from my side, he agreed to file GC in EB2. Soon after that I joined employer B and he has filed my GC in EB2. My priority date is end of July 2010. I am currently working in EVC model. My question was what should I do in this situation?
    1. Should I ask my current employer to file in Eb3 in anticipation of EB3 leap frogging ahead of EB2? The problem is most probably he may not agree at least now.
    2. I have heard that when the date becomes correct one can actually do a concurrent filing of downgrading from EB2 to EB3 along with application for EAD+AP and GC. Is this even possible?
    3. If my current employer does not agree to apply in EB3 and the date becomes current (for EB3) then what should I do? Would it be a safe option to have employer A apply my EB3 GC and on the side I continue working with employer B on H1? The only issue which I am worried about in this option is to produce the job offer for GC. My old employer would be willing to hire me but I guess if it is a EVC model then I would have to produce a client letter - is that a correct assessment.

    Please provide your input whenever you have time.

    Thanks in advance.

    Cheers.
    I am assuming that you have a good working relation with your prior employer.

    1. Should I ask my current employer to file in Eb3 in anticipation of EB3 leap frogging ahead of EB2? The problem is most probably he may not agree at least now?
    A. Yes, you can do that. But as the problem is with most of the employers are not keen to do that and attorney's are discouraging this at most of the companies I heard. So let us continue over this with your 2nd question.

    2. I have heard that when the date becomes correct one can actually do a concurrent filing of downgrading from EB2 to EB3 along with application for EAD+AP and GC. Is this even possible?
    A. Yes, you can do that too. In fact looking at the numbers, if you can get your current employer agree for downgrading, this would be really good. For this to work very effectively we need to get the premium processing which is being suspended currently, to be active again.

    3. If my current employer does not agree to apply in EB3 and the date becomes current (for EB3) then what should I do? Would it be a safe option to have employer A apply my EB3 GC and on the side I continue working with employer B on H1? The only issue which I am worried about in this option is to produce the job offer for GC. My old employer would be willing to hire me but I guess if it is a EVC model then I would have to produce a client letter - is that a correct assessment.
    A. GC is future employment. So if A is ready to activate your old EB3 petition, you can go ahead and proceed with that. Client letters for I-140? I think you are mixing up H1 extension here.


    My "2 cents" valuation

  21. #3771

  22. #3772
    Quote Originally Posted by newsletter1978 View Post
    From the link:

    EB-3 India demand is relatively light so forward movement could possibly be a few months in December. It is expected that EB-3 India will surpass EB-2 India within the next 12 months, which is likely to spur downgrades.
    If EB-3 India moves by a "few months" in December, then it should be surpassing EB2 India in December itself. Don't understand why "within 12 months". Ideally, filing dates in EB3 India need to move to June 2010 to generate demand.

  23. #3773
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    Quote Originally Posted by newsletter1978 View Post
    EB-2 India movement will be very limited. As of right now, no more than one week of forward movement is expected in December

    AND

    EB-3 India demand is relatively light so forward movement could possibly be a few months in December


    Is CO talking about Filing Dates here or Final Action dates?

  24. #3774
    Thease prediction guys dont have any clue. Just throwing some words in their meeting.

  25. #3775
    Charles oppenheim dont have any clue. Just throwing some words about prediction. no reliable resources for this

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