I was too pessimistic by 2 months, I thought it will move 6 months but it moved 8 months. My prediction for May bulletin is April 1, 2008 ( 7 months progress)Originally Posted by civilengineer
I was too pessimistic by 2 months, I thought it will move 6 months but it moved 8 months. My prediction for May bulletin is April 1, 2008 ( 7 months progress)
The fact that EB2I is moving forward - means that there isn't enough porting demand to consume regular ~300/month quota. EB2I is not consuming any spillover right now - so I guess it's a good thing that it is moving on its own. We should still expect *some* jump sometime in late summer.
Assuming another 8 months in May (01APR08), 8 months in June (01DEC08) - after that depends on whether we have spillover and how much.
The EB2C to EB3C downgrade finally caught up to with EB3C's quota it seems.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
You need to consider the fact that increase in demand due to porting is a factor of VB dates.
Prior to Aug 2007 --> almost 0 porting
Aug 2007 to Jun 2008 --> When date will start moving in this range there will be some increase in porting
Jun 2008 to May 2009 --> more increase in porting
I would think the following:
May (01 Mar 2008)
June (01 July 2008)
July (01 Dec 2008)
Aug and Sep will see increase in supply (due to spillover) and demand (due to porting).
My PD is 11/11/2009.
Silly question - but would it make sense to do the medical in June/July in anticipation that I will receive the RFE later this year and it can be submitted quickly?
No. it wont make sense. Please refer to Spec's reply on this few posts earlier..
Suggest you just wait it out. There is no quick way out.
IMDENG,
I have a simple question. PD is Aug 2009 - should I give up hope that I will not get GreenCard in 2014? I ask this because I plan to change jobs, have already filed AC21 once and dread filing another one in a year's time. Not really sure if I should wait this storm out (because of possibility of GC in 2014) or move on like I have done in the past. Your response will keep me from going into some kind of crazy depression and indecision phase.
EB2I: PD 08-20-2009 || SC: TSC || RD: 2/10/2012 || ND: 2/15/2012 || FP: 3/14/2012 || RN: SRC1290146*** || EAD/AP-Dependent 3/16/2012 (combo card) received|| EAD/AP-Applicant: 3/26/2012 (combo card) first received
|| Now what?
If I were God, I'd give GC to all!
Self - You asked me so I will put my thoughts on paper - although I really have no more information/insight than anyone else here.
I agonized over a career move earlier this year, just like you are doing right now. Finally, I decided to consider GC as just the background process that we have no influence on and leverage EAD to switch jobs. As Q (and I) have been saying to everyone - one should do what is best for one's career without worrying about the GC process. The GC process will sort itself out, in time. There is no point in obsessing about it. I am mildly optimistic for our chances this year (2015, not 2014 :-)) - but I have told myself that I will not be super bummed if it does not happen. Just renew EAD/AP and continue on with rest of life.
If I were you, I would do the job change if it makes sense for your career, irrespective of the GC process. Most of us have lived/worked in the country for 10+ years. We have skill, experience, network, etc to hopefully take care of whatever curve ball gets thrown our way. We feel ourselves to be helpless against the GC process - but I tell myself that we are not - we should keep our noses clean, get our job done and follow the best career opportunities - and let the GC drama play itself out.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Q, imdeng, and many others have always said "put your career ahead of the GC".
I changed jobs on EAD. I got my GC last year.
Opportunities don't come along often. The earlier you move, the better it is for your career.
Your PD should be current this year, and you should get an RFE for the EVL anyway. Just send your new job papers at that time. There is no empirical evidence that being at the current job gives you GC any faster. From all anecdotal evidence, the IOs are probably assuming jobs have changed (or at the very least responsibilities have changed) for long pending 485s. They will review your EVL afresh. That's my impression.
Self Coach,
I agree (partially) with Deng and Sportsfan. My PD is close to yours and there was a time during November 2011 that I had a "moment" and decided to look for jobs. I hadn't filed for 485 yet, but was really frustrated at work. This was a time when dates were moving, but no one could fathom that it would go as much as 2010. I did get a few offers, but nothing to my satisfaction. So I decided to stay put. Thankfully, within a few months my PD became current and I switched jobs after 180 days. There was more flexibility and more freedom and of course less risk.
I changed jobs again after 7 months because I hated the new job from day 1 onwards. Used AC21 both times. I have also met people who have changed jobs several times. Many 2007 fiasco EB3 filers have changed jobs multiple times.
Of course I haven't got my GC yet, so I can't tell what it entails to have changed jobs when 485 is pending. I am guessing EVL is a fairly common RFE, though my attorney says many times they don't ask for it especially if you have filed AC21.
So as long as your are changing jobs 180 days after filing 485, you should be OK.
Good luck to You, Deng and me and several others who are eagerly waiting for SO season
Iatiam
Thanks guys. Very valuable advice. I was not aware that multiple AC21s do not affect the GC file. Btw IMDENG I am now realizing it is 2015 already....I was hoping for the GC in 2014!
EB2I: PD 08-20-2009 || SC: TSC || RD: 2/10/2012 || ND: 2/15/2012 || FP: 3/14/2012 || RN: SRC1290146*** || EAD/AP-Dependent 3/16/2012 (combo card) received
If I were God, I'd give GC to all!
From Ron Gotcher's Site http://www.immigration-information.com This is the Post.
I'm somewhat surprised by some of those answers.Some Interesting Visa Office Updates
In their most recent conversation with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office, AILA liaison commented, in part, as follows:
EB-2 India.
After advancing 16 months in March 2015, EB-2 India will advance another eight months in April, to September 1, 2007. Members can expect EB-2 India to continue to advance at a steady pace for another couple of months before slowing or holding toward the end of the fiscal year.
. . .
What will it take for there to be movement in EB-3 India?
At this time, there is nothing which can be done to improve the India EB-3 cut-off date situation unless there is a legislative change. The amount of pre-adjudicated India EB-3 demand versus the annual limit prevents more than a one or two week monthly movement of this cut-off date. For example, at this time, more than 9,100 India EB-3 applicants with priority dates earlier than January 1, 2005 (alone) have already been reported to the visa Office and the FY2015 annual limit is approximately 2,875.
Do you foresee EB-3 Worldwide becoming current anytime soon? If so, what would that mean for EB-3 India?
Charlie does not anticipate that EB-3 Worldwide will become current anytime soon but the cut-off date could easily reach 2015. If the Worldwide EB-3 category ever becomes current then (and only then) any "otherwise unused" numbers could be made available to the India EB-3 category, which has the earliest EB-3 cut-off date.
In his Executive Actions on Immigration, President Obama directed DOS and USCIS to work on a system to alleviate the visa backlogs. Have any steps been taken to effectuate the intent of the President?
Yes. One example is having advanced the cut-off dates at a more rapid pace, and much earlier, than in previous years.
Ron
James Ronald Gotcher
Global Immigration Partners
22775 Malibu Hills Road, Suite 150
Calabasas Hills, CA 91301
Tel: 818-914-6482
Fax: 818-475-3450
Inquiries@GotcherLaw.com
The Oh Law Firm has this rather brief summary:
03/18/2015: State Department Prediction of Visa Bulletin Movement Post April 2015
According to the AILA, Mr. Charles Oppenheim predicts the following:
- India EB-2: It will continue to advance at a steady pace for another two months before slow down or holding toards the end of this fiscal year (09/30/2015)
- India EB-3: Just one or two weeks movement per month
- China EB-2: Some movement may be possibe, but should excessive demand takes place, some move-back can be considered.
- China EB-3: Not too promising.
- China EB-5: Retrogession in June or earlier.
- Worldwide EB-3: Another big move ahead in May. However, may not see "current" within this fiscal year.
Overall, somewhat disappointing, but better than regrogression!
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
So basically he is saying no SO for EB 3 I. I am surprised to hear that EB 3 Row will not be current this year. It is already technically current.
He is never consistent across his different meetings. Regarding EB3 situation, why is EB3 ROW advancing so fast in the past couple of months if there was demand in that category ? For me it sounds like he is going to waste EB3 visas by not doing FA to EB3I.
This is surprising. There is broad consensus that there isn't much demand left in EB3 for this FY beyond the current PD. Perhaps he is hedging any possibility of greater migration of EB2ROW applications to EB3ROW. Even then, this migrations should not have any appreciable effect in the current FY.
Considering that there is a 5 months left in this FY beyond the Apr VB, I don't see how EB3ROW will not become current. It would be a travesty if CO is late in making EB3ROW current and consequently is late in sending RFEs to EB3I and ends up wasting visa numbers. We are not out of time yet but soon will be there.
Update: Last Inventory: EB1ROW 12.5K, EB2ROW 18K, EB3ROW 8K. There is no way that EB3ROW will not get current this FY without wasting visa numbers.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
May be CO is extremely cautious and doesn't want to make any predictions. In my opinion things might be different as we move closer to the last quarter and he might progress EB3 I dates.
Thanks
Amul
Is there a possibility that there is demand from consulates for EB3 visas which we are not aware of ?
I don't think PERM filings show that much excessive demand. So consular processing might not be the case. But I would like to hear from the gurus here what they think.
gcq,
That's always a possibility, but I have considered the historical % of CP. The figures for ROW are shown below:
FY2014 - 11.70%
FY2013 - 13.08%
FY2012 - 14.27%
FY2011 - 19.21%
FY2010 - 11.70%
Philippines does, historically have very high CP % (40-60%), but the numbers are ultimately limited by reaching the overall 7% limit. Philippines used 5.7k EB3 visas last FY, but possible extra usage in EB2-P this FY suggests that number will not be exceeded, or may be slightly less.
Mexico has ranged from 5-10% CP cases. They've used 3-4k total EB3 visas per FY since the EB3-M COD caught up with ROW. Again, ultimately, EB3-M use is eventually limited by the overall 7% limit.
The November 2014 Immigrant Visa Applicants Report from DOS doesn't suggest anything extraordinary from ROW.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks for the explanation spec, amulchandra
the perm data suggests that there will be less demand for eb3 row 485's than its yearly quota , why is the CO/USCIS/DoS unable to see this ?
That's because (USCIS/DOS) they do a poor job of forecasting. For eg, please look at July 2013 VB, where they predict only 3 weeks movement for EB3I in Q4 but actually there is 8 months movement in Sep 2013 VB as a precedent....
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...july-2013.html
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...mber-2013.html
Exactly that is what I was going to say. Most of the times USCIS is very bad at estimating the demand. They procrastinate a lot till the end of the FY.
Initially I was little disheartened when I saw the AILA update but my past experience says that the gurus here are far better and have a greater understanding about demand estimation than USCIS.
I still think that EB3 I is going to get some reasonable SO this year.
may be uscis inventory due in april will show the reality for eb3row demand. USCIS/CO/DoS have not completely utilized the EB3 quota for past years, hope they wont go waste again this year
My dates became current sometime in august last year. I got the RFE on July 7, and anticipating the RFE, i got everything ready by July 5th. I get the RFE on july 7th and by July 9th, my RFE is received at USCIS. The wait for GC began on 1st of September and i was happy that i have 2 months... guess what, on october 8th they issued me another RFE and that arrived on October 23rd. Exactly the same RFE, medical & letter of employment. My doctor issued the medical again on the same day since it was under 3 month time frame and filed immediately again. October 29th, they changed the status that response is received...... but demise of my hopes, october 31st retrogression hits....
I don't know if it was me being proactive or USCIS being just not doing its job. But take a deep breath and go with the flow. Don't do anything in anticipation.
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PD -4/3/2009 | I-485 Filing Date - 4/17/2012 | Receipt Date:4/25/2012 | Date current since : Feb 2019 | Card Being Produced: 5/2/2019
Spec, Q and Suva,
Appreciate all your feedback.
Spec,
From what you wrote, the only SO to EB2I will be from EB2ROW, EB2M and EB2P. Is that correct? At this point in time, is it possible to narrow-down the SO numbers? I know you said 10k to 15k earlier. Does it look too much now?
Iatiam
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