Originally Posted by AceMan
So my priority date is EB2-I -August 28, 2009. I should be expecting the date to be current by the end of FY 2019. I missed the opportunity in 2012. So still on H1b
thanks Aceman
So my priority date is EB2-I -August 28, 2009. I should be expecting the date to be current by the end of FY 2019. I missed the opportunity in 2012. So still on H1b
thanks Aceman
From the limited information provided to us by USCIS/DOS, that sounds about right, good guestimate - lets wait and see.
Are these final action date or filing dates?
I feel Aceman you are being too optimistic. There are so many leftover applications from last year in EB2 and EB3 which will be counted this year. And couple with that about 8000 known EB2 cases beyond current cutoff in 2009. Combine with that EB3s which by my calculation would be around 5K atleast for 2009. With strong chances of downgrading happening EB3 wont get too far ahead of EB2 - if any at all. I would say both Eb2 and Eb3 would reach atmost Aug 2009 for FADs.
I would love to be proven wrong by a month-by-month analysis. The aggregate yearly numbers can be misleading.
It is very interesting on why USCIS would like to honor the filing dates at this point. This shows DOS/USCIS would like to estimate the actual demand of all EB2 and EB3 cases until May 2010.
Remember 8000 known EB2 cases beyond current cutoff in 2009 also contain cases who have approved 140 EB3. Having said that most of the demand might be visible by end of October when USCIS might go back to honoring final action dates.
I heard EB5 will be abolished around end of September. Is this true? if Yes, will there be a spill over to EB2 or EB3?
I don't agree that EB2 2009 Pending inventory contains any EB3s or at least a significant number of it. The dates went past Mar 2009 for EB2 only once in past and the speed they moved with and then retrogressed left little time to file eb2 perm and I140 for any eb3s. I know this because I was there
Infact I can imagine a number of EB2s from 2009-10 PDs would be then unmarried ones, who now have additional dependents to file for. (e.g. labor filed in 2009 - age 27; date current in 2012 - age 29-30)
This has been going on since at least FY2012 for both:
Employment Fourth Preference Certain Religious Workers (SR)
and
Employment Fifth Preference Categories (I5 and R5)
In both cases, they are a subset of the total visas issued under the category.
For EB5, however, almost all of the visas issued are under this sub-category because it requires a $500k, rather than a $1M investment.
Congress has continually reauthorized the programs (often as part of a CR), punting a final decision to others. I expect that to continue.
It's likely that EB5 will eventually be reformed, increasing the $500k currently needed for these sub-groups to $1.3M (just adjusts for inflation since 1990).
I'm not sure that will have much effect.
There's years worth of approvals grandfathered into the old limit and I suspect there are sufficient Chinese who could afford the increased limit.
If it were abolished at the end of FY2018, then maybe there might be a couple of years where there would be SO from EB5 to EB1, who would likely consume it all. After that, there would be enough demand from those willing to invest $1M in the other parts of the EB5 program that are unaffected.
The Certain Religious Workers part of EB4 accounts for about 1k of 10k EB4 approvals each FY. Other retrogressed Countries within EB4 would use any visas freed if the program was abolished.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
CO did not mentioned at what rate EB2-I would progress in FY19.
July 485 inventory shows about 1,000 till about March 15th. That's not much and given two more months of SO, that inventory would have been wiped off which is the reason why dates moved in October.
Iatiam
There are too many variables here. For one, there are people with multiple PERMS - EB2 & EB3 who have never been current. There are people with multiple petitions in family for spouses. In fact, most of the people I know who have EB3I PDs after 2009 have changed jobs just to upgrade. Whether or not they will upgrade/downgrade is a question time can tell.
Also, people have moved from EB3/EB2 to EB1 as well. Many companies (esp. WITCHes) have used this loophole to their advantage
With due respect to your calculation, when do you think EB3I Mar 2011 will be able to file 485? My spouses H1 expires in Oct,2019 and we are home owners here. Looking at the current H1 rejection trends, we were planning on putting our home for sale next summer but the Oct VB has got us thinking if we should instead put our home for lease instead, if things dont go the right way. Your post also seems very encouraging for people like us. Any educated guesstimate on what to expect for EB3I Mar 2011?
I have a Feb 2011 PD. My H1 expires in Dec 2019 and I am also an home owner. Selling, leasing a house is all personal depending on personal financial needs and we cannot worry about things not in our control, in my opinion.
So as Spec said in the earlier post we don't have inventory for EB3 I, the following scenario happened for EB2 -I in FY 2012. From Oct-2011 to April -2012, the dates moved from July 2007 through to May 2010. Also as Spec mentioned a Memo gave it the nitro boost at that time..
In 2019, EB3 is not having that nitro boost.
All we can pray for is low EB3-ROW demand for the first few months, and CO will advance the filing date for 3-4 months well into 2011 so that we can file 485. Along with USCIS respecting filing date. :-D Eternal optimist.
I dont expect them to move EB3I past May 2010 in FY19 for sure. Im just looking at the rough estimate for somebody with an early 2011 EB3 date to file for 485. If based on the numbers, there is a possibility of that happening in 2-3 years, it wl help plan what to do with the house. All this while we had assumed it will take minimum 5 yrs but this bulletin has given us some hopes. Im not aware of the expected EB3 numbers in 2010 and your post looked like you had some rough calculations based on the PERM data which is why I put the question here.
Murthy has some interesting tidbits.
https://www.murthy.com/2018/09/21/oc...dia-and-china/
Short-Term Predictions for EB3 India
Although there was some speculation of the cutoff date for EB3 India possibly advancing past that of EB2 India, Mr. Oppenheim implies that this probably will not occur. He notes that EB3 India saw relatively rapid advancement in recent months in order to generate demand for next fiscal year. If, as expected, these immigrant visa numbers start getting used, the cutoff date for EB3 India will not be able to advance much.Cutoff Dates in DF Chart to Predict Future Movement
One additional insight provided by Mr. Oppenheim is how he determines what date to list on the DF chart, which typically has more favorable cutoff dates than the FA chart. The dates Mr. Oppenheim sets in the DF chart are where he expects that category’s FA cutoff date to be within the next 8-to-12 months.
Whew!! My PD is May 22, 2009 EB2-I. I really hope filing date for EB-2 moves ahead a little or else I'll have to port back to EB-3. EB2 filing date is stuck on May 22, 2009 since last few months which happens to be my date. I'm sure there other folks in same boat, but this is killing me.
Unfortunately I just ported from EB3 to EB2 last month.
Are traffic tickets need to be reported in new I-485? If so, anyone who filed in 2018 did it?
I don't think anyone expects EB3-I to hit 2012 in FY 19. I don't think it will go back to 2005 either. It's more probable the EB-3 I FAD might end somewhere in 2009 for FY 19. Mostly Oct 1,2009. For EB-2 I, if only annual quota is available, it may not even reach July/August 2009. This is based on July 485 inventory. So the CO's comment was not too off. As a matter of fact if you take FAD, it's the EB-2 that's ahead of EB-3 India now.
It remains to be seen how much demand EB3-I generates for 2008/2009. After the spillover rule change(2008?) not many chose to file in EB3-I(There are ratios like 70% EB2 vs 30% EB3). Besides that, the horizontal SO that EB3-I gets in EB3 category will move forward the dates. EB3-I May,2018 final action date was set to Nov 01,2008 and all we got in July EB-3 I inventory,which was released 3 months after May, was only ~500 cases. I think the reason was, post July 2007 and 2008 EB2I dates have been current for more than 5 years where EB3I was stuck somewhere in 2004/2005. So many would have moved jobs/ported who were stuck in EB3-I 2007/2008 PDs. Those may have already obtained GC in EB-2. I think that's the reason we're not seeing too many applications in the July inventory for EB3-I. And, the EB-2 2009 PD people most likely won't downgrade as their dates are pretty close. EB3-I demand is mostly going to be in 2009 rather than 2007/2008 in my opinion.
Dude
If that is the case then I might need more than 7 pages for I-485. Damn that gas pedal........It is not my fault, it is gas pedal fault. All I did was I stepped on it.
All Horizontal SO in EB3 will go to EB3-C until EB3-I inventory is built.
In that case,China has only 71 cases pending in EB3 category as per July bulletin
South Korea and Philippines take a huge chunk. I think Philippines will be current in EB3 this FY. South Korea always has a steady demand in both EB2 and 3.
EB3 India should get around 10 K if the demand for ROW is low in EB3.
I have a basic question:
Until recently EB3I was not even getting their own quota. What changed so drastically that we are expecting EB3I to get 10K visas? ( I just want to know what am I missing)
If I vaguely remember (unless my memory has tricked me) , it was demand destruction from nurses abandoning their petitions in EB3-ROW because of the backlog. That is my fear for EB3-ROW. Now that it is current again, what is stopping the nurses from re-applying via consular processing..Until recently EB3I was not even getting their own quota. What changed so drastically that we are expecting EB3I to get 10K visas? ( I just want to know what am I missing)
Porting was the only option before. EB3-ROW was also backlogged till 2nd quarter of 2017. EB3 I got 6600 in 2017 and expecting similar numbers in 2018. The biggest consumer of EB3-ROW SO is Philippines and they are expected to be current this FY. Hence my optimism that EB3 I might get 10K.
Perhaps the expiry of H1C visas contributing to less EB3 Philippines workers in US?
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