EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[march1612]

What happen to additional unused visa's? Did CO already used them up?

A week ago CO mentioned there would be a big movement in EB2 and EB3. What made CO to go for conservative approach?

July VB will be still interesting to see how far filing dates would be moved.

I suspect unused numbers are heading over to Family system....

[lville]

Man if its not going to move past March 2009, it sux. I am at EB2 05/22/2009. I'm happy for people who will benefit from 3 month advancement but it really sux. I'll have to wait for 2 more years. 1 year to get date current and then 1 year to go thru all the process till I get my card in hand.

[Spectator]

I suspect unused numbers are heading over to Family system....

There's really no scenario where FB can benefit from unused EB numbers in the following FY (in contrast to the other way around).

Here's a simplified version of the law that sets the FB allocation for the FY:

(c) Worldwide Level of Family-Sponsored Immigrants. -

(1) (A) The worldwide level of family-sponsored immigrants under this subsection for a fiscal year is -

(i) 480,000,

(ii) minus the number of Immediate Relative visas issued in the previous FY.

(iii) plus unused EB visas from previous FY.

(B) In no case shall the number computed under subparagraph (A) be less than 226,000.

Let's plug in the numbers for FY2017: (chosen because the last figures published by USCIS for IR visas is for FY2016)

(i) 480,000
(ii) 566,706 IR Visas issued in FY2016
(iii) 0 unused EB visas from FY2016

So, 480,000 - 566,706 + 0 = (86,706)

The allocation defaulted to the minimum number of 226,000.


What if there were no EB approvals the previous FY?

480,000 - 566,706 + 140,000 = 53,294

This is still below the minimum allocation, so it would default to 226,000.

You can see that due to the huge number of IR approvals, it's impossible for FB to ever benefit from unused EB visas.

Even though FY2016 had quite high IR approvals, any of the previous FY back to (at least) FY2007 would still have resulted in the same outcome.

FY2016 --- 566,706
FY2015 --- 465,068
FY2014 --- 416,456
FY2013 --- 439,460
FY2012 --- 478,780
FY2011 --- 453,158
FY2010 --- 476,414
FY2009 --- 535,554
FY2008 --- 488,483
FY2007 --- 494,920

[march1612]

There's really no scenario where FB can benefit from unused EB numbers in the following FY (in contrast to the other way around).

Here's a simplified version of the law that sets the FB allocation for the FY:



Let's plug in the numbers for FY2017: (chosen because the last figures published by USCIS for IR visas is for FY2016)

(i) 480,000
(ii) 566,706 IR Visas issued in FY2016
(iii) 0 unused EB visas from FY2016

So, 480,000 - 566,706 + 0 = (86,706)

The allocation defaulted to the minimum number of 226,000.


What if there were no EB approvals the previous FY?

480,000 - 566,706 + 140,000 = 53,294

This is still below the minimum allocation, so it would default to 226,000.

You can see that due to the huge number of IR approvals, it's impossible for FB to ever benefit from unused EB visas.

Thanks Spec,
back to my question , where did the unused numbers go? The only thing I can think of is wasteage

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec,
back to my question , where did the unused numbers go? The only thing I can think of is wasteage

Yes it's wastage, all the worse because no one benefits.

You have to be philosophical about it. S**T happens.

I didn't see anyone crying a river when EB benefited from unused FB visas. It's human nature.

FB Extra Visas to EB
FY2017 --------- 0
FY2016 ------- 338
FY2015 ----- 4,796
FY2014 ---- 10,241
FY2013 ---- 18,466
FY2012 ----- 4,951
FY2011 --------- 0
FY2010 ---- 10,657
FY2009 --------- 0
FY2008 ---- 22,704

Total ----- 72,153


All this at a time when every Country in every FB category was retrogressed. It never should have happened in an ideal world.

[newyorker123]

You have to be philosophical about it. S**T happens.

I suspect the lobbying forces - this is similar to what happened when VB dates were pushed back. Lobbying forces / Racist admin - what all are we fighting ? and wasting our valuable years.

[qesehmk]

You have to be philosophical about it. S**T happens.

I didn't see anyone crying a river when EB benefited from unused FB visas. It's human nature.

It doesn't happen very often that I disagree with you Spec. But this is one of those times.
A) EB has no reason to cry a river over FB loss.
B) EB has every right to cry over unused visas when folks are waiting in line for 10+ years.
C) EB has every right to scream over fast lanes for countries like timbktu and extra slow lanes for countries like India

[Spectator]

It doesn't happen very often that I disagree with you Spec. But this is one of those times.
A) EB has no reason to cry a river over FB loss.
B) EB has every right to cry over unused visas when folks are waiting in line for 10+ years.
C) EB has every right to scream over fast lanes for countries like timbktu and extra slow lanes for countries like India

Q,

We'll have to disagree.

EB shouldn't cry a river over EB loss either. EB have profited far more from the arrangement.

Some Countries in FB have been waiting much longer than 10 years. Far more Countries are impacted with a much bigger backlog.

I smell self-interest (in the wider sense) and hypocrisy in your comments above.

If you want this to still be a forum for Predictions (Rather Calculations) then it's necessary to take a dispassionate view.

I see less and less of that these days. It's turning into an alt-Trackkit, moaning about the usual suspects, with a whiff of the site that shall not be named.

There was a time when that didn't happen.

[imdeng]

Q,

...

If you want this to still be a forum for Predictions (Rather Calculations) then it's necessary to take a dispassionate view.

I see less and less of that these days. It's turning into an alt-Trackkit, moaning about the usual suspects, with a whiff of the site that shall not be named.

There was a time when that didn't happen.

Spec - I suspect the reason is that once we had a lot of useful data and information to base our analysis on - Calculations and Predictions indeed. We did focus on that then. However, past couple years have been a void - all we can do are guesses in the dark so not much useful emerges out of that. Some of the old guard is still around - just doesn't have anything concrete to contribute anymore I imagine.

Plus - I think you would need to allow for a little passion in the discourse here. Yes - it is self interest, yes there is hypocrisy - but I don't know whether it is possible to approach the topic without passion when it determines whether multiple decades of your life lead to the hoped for conclusion or not.

[qesehmk]

Spec,

Nothing wrong with disagreements over facts. Our disagreements are over preferences it seems. You don't seem to see anything unjust with country quotas. Tell me if I am wrong.

I am not sure what's wrong with acting in self interest. I also do not understand how not speaking for FB (when this site is mostly dedicated to EB) is hypocracy!!

Looks like my second last post hit home Spec! If you work for State Dept, you need to give it a good think... how unjust it is for Indians that are 1/6th of world population to be taking a slow train while smaller nations zip by! I personally think State Dept still lives with the cold war mentality.

If all these years of calculations have taught me one thing - then it is that the "Country Quota" is the #1 evil for EB immigration. Period. Speaking about it is very much in line with the purpose of this thread and site.

While we do provide calculations and objective information. It is important that we also remain a community. We can't fault people for ranting because everybody needs a vent. Their children are in danger of aging out. They have been living in freaking apartment for decades. Renewing licenses and taking shit from MVDs all over the US. Taking shit at work from less capable people. Being underpaid as much as 50% for the kind of work they delivery.

So lets be tolerant and objective. You have been a great resource to folks on this forum. I have tremendous respect for you. But as you said - we have to disagree on this topic it seems.

Q,

We'll have to disagree.

EB shouldn't cry a river over EB loss either. EB have profited far more from the arrangement.

Some Countries in FB have been waiting much longer than 10 years. Far more Countries are impacted with a much bigger backlog.

I smell self-interest (in the wider sense) and hypocrisy in your comments above.

If you want this to still be a forum for Predictions (Rather Calculations) then it's necessary to take a dispassionate view.

I see less and less of that these days. It's turning into an alt-Trackkit, moaning about the usual suspects, with a whiff of the site that shall not be named.

There was a time when that didn't happen.

[iatiam]

Most of us EB folks have spend our youths here in this country which gives no transparency in to the immigration process. FB has a choice, they live in their own countries and can chose not to come to the US when the GC arrives in the mail. I for one would not have chosen to come here if I knew how messed up the system is.

Either remove the country caps, make the system fair and prevent abuse. Or else let us know very clearly we are not welcome here very early on so we dont waste our lives chasing a mirage.

End of rant

Iatiam

[srisri]

Hi I have been following this thread for a long time and have rarely posted, I prefer to side with Spec on this matter, my main reason is this thread is specifically for predictions and calculations and if we bring in emotions or passion we might lose the objective. If you want to provide a place for venting frustrations I recommend a new thread be created to discuss matters on immigration fixing.

[Nishant_imt]

Q and Spec - You both are the pillars on which this building stands... half of us will understand what Q is saying and other half only comprehends what Spec has to say. You two make this a functioning brain like a left and a right hemisphere. I don't understand this immigration calculation bull much, unlike you fine folks, but just never give up on this forum and your opinions.... I don't know if you understand this, but a lot of us folks are hanging by a thread because of this forum.... every day, every week, every month and every year, there is no other site to give us a practical picture but this one... and if I may, this forum is practically two of you. I don't know if I make sense, but I somehow read Spec loosing heart here. Please don't.

[hope21]

Q and Spec - You both are the pillars on which this building stands... half of us will understand what Q is saying and other half only comprehends what Spec has to say. You two make this a functioning brain like a left and a right hemisphere. I don't understand this immigration calculation bull much, unlike you fine folks, but just never give up on this forum and your opinions.... I don't know if you understand this, but a lot of us folks are hanging by a thread because of this forum.... every day, every week, every month and every year, there is no other site to give us a practical picture but this one... and if I may, this forum is practically two of you. I don't know if I make sense, but I somehow read Spec loosing heart here. Please don't.

I concur, you both (Spec and Q) are right from your perspective, we need intellect and wisdom that you both have. There will be disagreements but we need to overcome that, we need to stick around, you guys are precious...keep sharing your thoughts in spite of few differences.

[qesehmk]

srisri and nishant - I think pointing out that country caps are the culprit is pretty much part of calculations and predictions.

No amount of further calculations are going to do any of you any good until country caps are removed.

I do smell hypocracy from Spec because he has never supported removal of country caps. I am just calling it out. If it hurts him/her - so be it. But this discussion is very much part of calculations and predictions.

Hi I have been following this thread for a long time and have rarely posted, I prefer to side with Spec on this matter, my main reason is this thread is specifically for predictions and calculations and if we bring in emotions or passion we might lose the objective. If you want to provide a place for venting frustrations I recommend a new thread be created to discuss matters on immigration fixing.

Q and Spec - You both are the pillars on which this building stands... half of us will understand what Q is saying and other half only comprehends what Spec has to say. You two make this a functioning brain like a left and a right hemisphere. I don't understand this immigration calculation bull much, unlike you fine folks, but just never give up on this forum and your opinions.... I don't know if you understand this, but a lot of us folks are hanging by a thread because of this forum.... every day, every week, every month and every year, there is no other site to give us a practical picture but this one... and if I may, this forum is practically two of you. I don't know if I make sense, but I somehow read Spec loosing heart here. Please don't.

[march1612]

This forum has always provided me a realist view of my green card journey. To be precise, where I stand in the green card queue.

The predictions here were always backed with numbers and there is credibility attached to the predictions we get from Spec and Q.

These days I can hardly find people who have the intellect, wisdom and knowledge supported by data.

Spec and Q, please continue to guide us and we need your help.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Man if its not going to move past March 2009, it sux. I am at EB2 05/22/2009. I'm happy for people who will benefit from 3 month advancement but it really sux. I'll have to wait for 2 more years. 1 year to get date current and then 1 year to go thru all the process till I get my card in hand.

I would'nt be that pessimistic. Given that EB3ROW demand has slowed down to a trickle and only about 2500 EB3I PI, I see a EB3 SO wave pushing EB2I through May2009 this FY, unless CO opts to send that SO to EB1.

[Sept2009eb2]

I don’t support per country cap removal. I missed out on applying for 485 twice and I don’t know when I will get my GC either. But I still do not support removal of the per country cap. If it is removed, the rest of the world will suffer and the US will become India/China.

If I wanted to live in India or China, I will move there.

I really don’t think it is right to call anyone out in this thread.
If you can’t predict then thats OK.

You just says this is your best guess. I don’t expect all your predictions to come true.

I really do like and follow this thread and appreciate all the work people have put in to trying to predict dates. Calling a person’s prediction out as wrong is OK.. but this sounded to me like a personal attack which is not acceptable... sorry if I sounded rude.

srisri and nishant - I think pointing out that country caps are the culprit is pretty much part of calculations and predictions.

No amount of further calculations are going to do any of you any good until country caps are removed.

I do smell hypocracy from Spec because he has never supported removal of country caps. I am just calling it out. If it hurts him/her - so be it. But this discussion is very much part of calculations and predictions.

[4WatItsWorth]

Spec,

Nothing wrong with disagreements over facts. Our disagreements are over preferences it seems. You don't seem to see anything unjust with country quotas. Tell me if I am wrong.

I am not sure what's wrong with acting in self interest. I also do not understand how not speaking for FB (when this site is mostly dedicated to EB) is hypocracy!!

Looks like my second last post hit home Spec! If you work for State Dept, you need to give it a good think... how unjust it is for Indians that are 1/6th of world population to be taking a slow train while smaller nations zip by! I personally think State Dept still lives with the cold war mentality.

If all these years of calculations have taught me one thing - then it is that the "Country Quota" is the #1 evil for EB immigration. Period. Speaking about it is very much in line with the purpose of this thread and site.

While we do provide calculations and objective information. It is important that we also remain a community. We can't fault people for ranting because everybody needs a vent. Their children are in danger of aging out. They have been living in freaking apartment for decades. Renewing licenses and taking shit from MVDs all over the US. Taking shit at work from less capable people. Being underpaid as much as 50% for the kind of work they delivery.

So lets be tolerant and objective. You have been a great resource to folks on this forum. I have tremendous respect for you. But as you said - we have to disagree on this topic it seems.

Q, I cannot agree more! Thank you for standing up and looking out for the average Joes like me. If it werenÂ’t for the country caps, I wouldnÂ’t be stuck on a temporary visa, working at half my potential in a dead-end job for more than a decade with still no end in sight. The fear of my child aging out looks more real everyday. No amount prediction wizardry can compensate for the lack of calling country-caps an evil they are. Sorry if I sound blunt but thatÂ’s how I feel.

[Sept2009eb2]

I for one do not support the per country cap removal.
If the cap is removed, it will hurst the rest of the world.
It will also make the US more like India/China. If I wanted to live there, I would have gone to those countries.

It is also not fair to call one person out on a public forum. Just saying.

[Sept2009eb2]

I don’t support per country cap removal. Removing it will
* hurt the rest of the world
* make American like India/China - if I wanted to live there, I would not come to the US

And it’s not fair to call one person out for having a personal opinion in a public forum. Just saying.

[godhapaiya]

Just had a quick question on i485 pending inventory report released on April 2018. How does the report show ~6000 pending I485 applications for EB-2 India 2008 when the June 2018 VB final action dates are at Dec 2008? Shouldn't 2008 be cleared completely?

Also why are there pending I485 applications from 2001 to 2007?

[lville]

Q, I cannot agree more! Thank you for standing up and looking out for the average Joes like me. If it werenÂ’t for the country caps, I wouldnÂ’t be stuck on a temporary visa, working at half my potential in a dead-end job for more than a decade with still no end in sight. The fear of my child aging out looks more real everyday. No amount prediction wizardry can compensate for the lack of calling country-caps an evil they are. Sorry if I sound blunt but thatÂ’s how I feel.

I think country cap is necessary or else there will tons of just Indians and Chinese people here migrating. The way it is structured is to balance out immigration. It affects us bcuz we have huge number flowing in from India and china. In reality if one looks from American perspective they only want talented individuals poring in and what other labor force that is needed to build this country. But bcuz of porous border and lax immigration control there's lot of ill-legals and tier 4 and tier 5 white collar workers from Indian and China coming in (Very few Tier 1 talent). We should just be happy there's a country like USA to go to. No other country on planet has this amount of opportunity for growth and prosperity available to immigrants (at least this was the case for many years, may be it has dried now).

Imagine if India was a growth hub and there was no per country limit and all we got was influx from Bangladesh/Pakistan instead of talent from other deserving countries.

[newyorker123]

Lets lighten the discussions with a question.
Lets say I am with company A on H1b - visa/I-94 is stamped until 2020.
Lets say I moved to company B with only a H1b transfer receipt. After 2-3 months, H1b transfer is either pending or I get an RFE.
At this stage, can I move to

- a new company C with H1b transfer - with few paystubs from company B ?
Will the RFE impact this transfer ? What will happen of Employer B's petition ?

- back to company A which has a valid H1b in my name (assuming they do not revoke it - not sure if thats possible) ?
Will the RFE impact this transfer ? What will happen of employer B's petition ?

Has anybody been in above situations ?
Thanks

[qesehmk]

All I can say is that Indians and Chinese are no more or no less worthy of coming to US than any other nationality. America is a land of equal opportunity, land of the free and home of the brave. And I truly believe that. The current country quotas start Immigrant experience on the wrong footing.

I think country cap is necessary or else there will tons of just Indians and Chinese people here migrating. The way it is structured is to balance out immigration. It affects us bcuz we have huge number flowing in from India and china. In reality if one looks from American perspective they only want talented individuals poring in and what other labor force that is needed to build this country. But bcuz of porous border and lax immigration control there's lot of ill-legals and tier 4 and tier 5 white collar workers from Indian and China coming in (Very few Tier 1 talent). We should just be happy there's a country like USA to go to. No other country on planet has this amount of opportunity for growth and prosperity available to immigrants (at least this was the case for many years, may be it has dried now).

Imagine if India was a growth hub and there was no per country limit and all we got was influx from Bangladesh/Pakistan instead of talent from other deserving countries.

I don’t support per country cap removal. I missed out on applying for 485 twice and I don’t know when I will get my GC either. But I still do not support removal of the per country cap. If it is removed, the rest of the world will suffer and the US will become India/China.

If I wanted to live in India or China, I will move there.

I really don’t think it is right to call anyone out in this thread.
If you can’t predict then thats OK.

You just says this is your best guess. I don’t expect all your predictions to come true.

I really do like and follow this thread and appreciate all the work people have put in to trying to predict dates. Calling a person’s prediction out as wrong is OK.. but this sounded to me like a personal attack which is not acceptable... sorry if I sounded rude.