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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #2876
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    Why there has been no movement for EB2-I in June 2018 VB when there were enough spill overs? Why only last quarter of FY?

  2. #2877
    https://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/U...tInterview.pdf

    Does this mean USCIS want to exempt the interview for some of the post 3/2017 EB/FB applicants and process them quick. Will it not impact the SO, if there is any?

  3. #2878
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raj0687 View Post
    https://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/U...tInterview.pdf

    Does this mean USCIS want to exempt the interview for some of the post 3/2017 EB/FB applicants and process them quick. Will it not impact the SO, if there is any?
    It just brings the Policy Manual into line with the new interview waiver guidelines.

    In fact, it reiterates that EB cases are no longer eligibe for a waiver.

    Updates the list of types of adjustment of status cases in which USCIS might waive the interview by removing employment-based and fiancé(e)-based adjustment cases from the list.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  4. #2879
    Spec,

    do u think there will be SO from EB2M and EB2P this yr and flow into EB2I?
    EB2-I, PD - 03/25/2009

  5. #2880
    Quote Originally Posted by EB2-03252009 View Post
    Spec,

    do u think there will be SO from EB2M and EB2P this yr and flow into EB2I?
    Last FY year both Mexico and Philippines used only half of their allotted quota. Still EB2 I ended up with only 2879 (75 more than the mandated 2804). South Korea got the bulk. This year it is already 9 months and so far the EB2 I movement is very sluggish. July bulletin is the last big hope for EB2 I this FY.

  6. #2881
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    Quote Originally Posted by EB2-03252009 View Post
    Spec,

    do u think there will be SO from EB2M and EB2P this yr and flow into EB2I?
    That's difficult to answer since there is no reliable information on EB2 Mexico and Philippine approvals.

    The numbers on Trackitt are too low to be reliable.

    It's possible that EB2-ROW could use any spare numbers, as last FY.

    Last year (FY2017), EB2-ROW was retrogressed for the final 2 months of the FY. Trackitt approvals were 592.

    In FY2018, EB2-ROW still potentially has the full 12 months of approvals. At the current monthly approval rate on Trackitt, EB2-ROW is capable of reaching the same number of approvals as in FY2017. Currently there are 414, with 4.5 months to go. EB2-ROW need only average 40 approvals per month for the rest of the FY to reach last year's total. Excluding October and May, to date EB2-ROW are currently averaging 50 per month.

    Whether Trackitt approvals this year equate to the same number of actual approvals as last year is different question.
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  7. #2882
    Thanks Specs... looks like a close one this year for SOs
    EB2-I, PD - 03/25/2009

  8. #2883
    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    Spec, isn't it safe to say that most if not all EB2I cases being processed are currently ported cases? Original EB2Is must have gotten GCs. If that is the case, folks with EB3I PDs after July 2007 but have ported to EB2I have not filed AOS in EB3I at all. I am sure there are many such cases even after March 7, 2017. Porting is literally happening every day. It may have slowed down only recently with the rapid EB3I movement, like someone in late 2008 EB3I may now choose to wait it out instead of porting but others like him may have ported AFTER March 7, 2017 and are filing AOS for the first time.
    Any one with an EB2I Perm with a PD of Dec 2008 or earlier has already filed AOS in EB2, whether porter or not. The recent Fast movement in EB3I PD does not change that. So the question of anyone 'waiting it out' does not arise. 'Porting' is a term used to change a category AFTER filing for AOS, not before.

  9. #2884
    Co expects rapid advances on EB2 and EB3 India and china How much rapid advance can we expect ?

  10. #2885
    Cyrus tweeted abour latest CO AILA update:

    https://twitter.com/cyrusmehta/statu...61421864030209

    USCIS is not using EB numbers due to delays under the new mandatory interview policy for adjustment applicants. Charlie Oppenheim at DOS said at FBA Immigration conference in Memphis today to expect rapid advance in EB2/EB3 India/China numbers. Will know more by end of May.

  11. #2886
    Great news but we need CO to define rapid movement I will have my fingers and toes crossed till we hear more.


    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    Cyrus tweeted abour latest CO AILA update:

    https://twitter.com/cyrusmehta/statu...61421864030209

    USCIS is not using EB numbers due to delays under the new mandatory interview policy for adjustment applicants. Charlie Oppenheim at DOS said at FBA Immigration conference in Memphis today to expect rapid advance in EB2/EB3 India/China numbers. Will know more by end of May.

  12. #2887
    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    Cyrus tweeted abour latest CO AILA update:

    https://twitter.com/cyrusmehta/statu...61421864030209

    USCIS is not using EB numbers due to delays under the new mandatory interview policy for adjustment applicants. Charlie Oppenheim at DOS said at FBA Immigration conference in Memphis today to expect rapid advance in EB2/EB3 India/China numbers. Will know more by end of May.
    How much overall EB numbers have been used thus far for this FY?

    It appears there might be lot of unused EB spilling into backlogged categories mostly towards clearing out long held backlog that do not require interviews

  13. #2888
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  14. #2889
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Spec: Thanks. All I can read is that compared to last year, they have issued 6668 less EB2 GCs. For EB3 they have issued 1843 more GCs compared to last year. The net difference of 4825 GCs will be added to EB2.

    That amounts to about 4 months movement for EB2I. So are we looking at say July/August 2009 for EB2I by the end of this fiscal year?

    Although I want to take it to end of 2009, I just want to work with the numbers provided to understand it better.

  15. #2890
    Spec - Waiting to hear your thoughts on the presentation.




    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post

  16. #2891
    One important thing I see in the powerpoint is that CO is considering that any unused EB3 numbers "fall down" to EB1. This is different than Spec's interpretation of the relevant law. This would allows for CO to not waste any visas in case there isn't enough EB3 inventory to use all the spillover there.

    Now that CO considers the EB spillover process to be a closed loop cycle, he has a pathway to use EB2I inventory that does not need interview - in case the interview process delays approvals for recent EB-ROW filings.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  17. #2892
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Thanks Spec !

    This is a welcome news. EB2I should be happy with whatever movement they get this year. I believe this is going to be one time bonanza. Next year onwards the interview process will provide steady demand.

    However, if the extra visas really flow through a closed loop as shown in the diagram then it opens up lot of interesting possibilities. Would be interesting to see how this plays out over last quarter of FY 2018.

  18. #2893
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    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Spec: Thanks. All I can read is that compared to last year, they have issued 6668 less EB2 GCs. For EB3 they have issued 1843 more GCs compared to last year. The net difference of 4825 GCs will be added to EB2.

    That amounts to about 4 months movement for EB2I. So are we looking at say July/August 2009 for EB2I by the end of this fiscal year?

    Although I want to take it to end of 2009, I just want to work with the numbers provided to understand it better.
    These are numbers for first 6 months of FY2018(Oct-Mar). So actual available numbers could be different ( and hopefully more).

  19. #2894
    Dear Friends/Gurus, I am new to this forum. As you guys have much more experience, any best guess
    when EB3 India: Priority Date September 2009 might get current ? Kindly provide your best
    opinion/guess. Thanks in advance..

  20. #2895
    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    These are numbers for first 6 months of FY2018(Oct-Mar). So actual available numbers could be different ( and hopefully more).
    While this is good news, I am not sure how this is going to help EB3 India. It is too little, too late for EB3 India. I have a feeling that a whole lot of visas will be wasted this year.

    Iatiam

  21. #2896
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    Quote Originally Posted by iatiam View Post
    While this is good news, I am not sure how this is going to help EB3 India. It is too little, too late for EB3 India. I have a feeling that a whole lot of visas will be wasted this year.

    Iatiam
    Yes.. you could be right in terms of EB3I not getting much help other than able to file the 485 this FY.

    Wastage of visa might happen.. if extra visas can't flow back to EB1 and fall down. The diagram in the presentation seem to suggest that the extra visas may flow through closed loop.... but who knows.

  22. #2897
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    It's excellent news that CO believes unused EB3 visas remain available for use by EB1.

    I've tried to distill some of the information into a more digestible table form.

    First, visa usage in the 6 month Oct-Mar period. The only guess in the table is USCIS EB4 approvals. I think it is a fair guess.

    All Visa Issuances
    Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
    EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
    EB2 ----- 17,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
    EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
    EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
    EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

    Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%

    The expected usage would be 54% of the annual allocation.
    DOS Figures above match previously published data.

    Secondly the Field Office approvals. There's no info for EB4 or EB5. Approvals in EB5 by USCIS are negligible anyway.

    USCIS AOS Approvals
    Oct-Mar -- Service -- Field --- Total -- % Field
    EB1 ------- 19,344 -- 6,863 -- 26,207 ---- 26.2%
    EB2 ------- 11,595 -- 6,165 -- 17,760 ---- 34.7%
    EB3 -------- 7,649 -- 5,200 -- 12,849 ---- 40.5%
    EB4 --------------------------- 4,220
    EB5 ----------------------------- 942

    Total ------------------------ 61,978
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  23. #2898
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    It's excellent news that CO believes unused EB3 visas remain available for use by EB1.
    I don't think a lot of folks here would share your optimism of EB3 visas flow to EB1. They should be used by EB3.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    I've tried to distill some of the information into a more digestible table form.

    First, visa usage in the 6 month Oct-Mar period. The only guess in the table is USCIS EB4 approvals. I think it is a fair guess.

    Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
    EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
    EB2 ----- 21,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
    EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
    EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
    EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

    Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%

    The expected usage would be 54% of the annual allocation.
    DOS Figures above match previously published data.

    Secondly the Field Office approvals. There's no info for EB4 or EB5. Approvals in EB5 by USCIS are negligible anyway.

    Oct-Mar -- Service -- Field --- Total -- % Field
    EB1 ------- 19,344 -- 6,863 -- 26,207 ---- 26.2%
    EB2 ------- 11,595 -- 6,165 -- 17,760 ---- 34.7%
    EB3 -------- 7,649 -- 5,200 -- 12,849 ---- 40.5%
    EB4 --------------------------- 4,220
    EB5 ----------------------------- 942

    Total ------------------------ 61,978
    The thing I believe CO is saying is the field offices have only approved 5K visas in Q2 per category. I will assume that 90%+ GC's issued in Q2 would have gone to field offices. Now if they go by the same rate or improve a bit there will be plenty of unused visas.

  24. #2899
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    It's excellent news that CO believes unused EB3 visas remain available for use by EB1.

    I've tried to distill some of the information into a more digestible table form.

    First, visa usage in the 6 month Oct-Mar period. The only guess in the table is USCIS EB4 approvals. I think it is a fair guess.

    Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
    EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
    EB2 ----- 21,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
    EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
    EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
    EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

    Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%

    The expected usage would be 54% of the annual allocation.
    DOS Figures above match previously published data.

    Secondly the Field Office approvals. There's no info for EB4 or EB5. Approvals in EB5 by USCIS are negligible anyway.

    Oct-Mar -- Service -- Field --- Total -- % Field
    EB1 ------- 19,344 -- 6,863 -- 26,207 ---- 26.2%
    EB2 ------- 11,595 -- 6,165 -- 17,760 ---- 34.7%
    EB3 -------- 7,649 -- 5,200 -- 12,849 ---- 40.5%
    EB4 --------------------------- 4,220
    EB5 ----------------------------- 942

    Total ------------------------ 61,978
    If 54% is already used in first 6 months then why would there be rapid movement? I think in context of June 18 bulletin when dates moved just 4 days .., a months movement would feel like rapid movement 😄

  25. #2900
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    Quote Originally Posted by rock581 View Post
    I don't think a lot of folks here would share your optimism of EB3 visas flow to EB1. They should be used by EB3.
    I think you misunderstand me.

    Clearly the best use is for EB3 to use the visas in their own category. I took that as read.

    However, the alternative might have been that they were lost to EB entirely and used for the FY2019 FB calculation.

    No amount of spare EB visas can raise the FB calculation above 226,000 due to the numbers of Immediate Relative approvals.

    There could be 140,000 spare EB visas and it would still not allow any extra approvals for FB. The calculation would still result in defaulting to the lowest possible number of 226,000.
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