EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[srimurthy]

June Visa Bulletin is out
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...june-2018.html

and literally no movement for EB2I and EB3I

[Spectator]

June Visa Bulletin is out
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...june-2018.html

and literally no movement for EB2I and EB3I

Not literally true.

EB2-I moved from 22DEC08 to 26DEC08.

A movement less than to 01JAN09 is unusual and suggests there is too much demand to move it normally.

[srimurthy]

Not literally true.

EB2-I moved from 22DEC08 to 26DEC08.

A movement less than to 01JAN09 is unusual and suggests there is too much demand to move it normally.

usually we see the movements in multiples of weeks, so the 4 days movement is strange, is it not? I am not sure we saw this before.

[Spectator]

usually we see the movements in multiples of weeks, so the 4 days movement is strange, is it not? I am not sure we saw this before.

We also saw it with EB3-I when they moved through the March 2005 period of very high caseload.

March 2017 VB -- 22-Mar-05
April 2017 VB -- 24-Mar-05
May 2017 VB ---- 25-Mar-05

[Jagan01]

Not literally true.

EB2-I moved from 22DEC08 to 26DEC08.

A movement less than to 01JAN09 is unusual and suggests there is too much demand to move it normally.

I just dont understand where is the demand coming from? Everybidy who had to port have for surr porter in the last 10 years.

I am getting a feeling that CO is just screwing with EB2I because of thr lawsuit from Greg siskind. That lawsuit from Greg and whoever supported him was insane.

[tatikonda]

Yes Jagan, you stole my words. I was thinking about this for last couple of months.
Where is demand coming from.

I just dont understand where is the demand coming from? Everybidy who had to port have for surr porter in the last 10 years.

I am getting a feeling that CO is just screwing with EB2I because of thr lawsuit from Greg siskind. That lawsuit from Greg and whoever supported him was insane.

[march1612]

The only EB2-India demand we have currently is pending applications applied during 2012 period. Anything other than pending inventory is accounted for interviews so I am really surprised about 4 days EB2-India movement.

Is this a conservative movement before huge movement in Q4?

Do we still have porting from EB3 I to EB2 I?

[srimurthy]

The only EB2-India demand we have currently is pending applications applied during 2012 period. Anything other than pending inventory is accounted for interviews so I am really surprised about 4 days EB2-India movement.

Is this a conservative movement before huge movement in Q4?

Do we still have porting from EB3 I to EB2 I?

does it mean scope for more wastage

[march1612]

Either wastage or Big EB2-I movement.

[Spectator]

Since June is the last month of Q3, it's possible that there are constraints against the 27% per quarter law.

Regardless, whichever USCIS Inventory you care to believe (August 2017 is the last one that really made sense), December 2008 had significantly more cases than earlier months in 2008.

Possibly EB2-I cases with December PD could have interfiled when Filing Dates were last allowed in December 2016, but they could not have been approved until now.

In addition, until a few months ago, December 2008 PDs Final Action Date hadn't been current since October 2014.

[EB2-03252009]

True... I think there are atleast 700-1000 of Eb2I quota still left and I guess will be ready to use starting July 1st(last quarter) which will take date to Feb 1st 2009. Im still not sure about SO coming to EB2I.

Since June is the last month of Q3, it's possible that there are constraints against the 27% per quarter law.

Regardless, whichever USCIS Inventory you care to believe (August 2017 is the last one that really made sense), December 2008 had significantly more cases than earlier months in 2008.

Possibly EB2-I cases with December PD could have interfiled when Filing Dates were last allowed in December 2016, but they could not have been approved until now.

In addition, until a few months ago, December 2008 PDs Final Action Date hadn't been current since October 2014.

[march1612]

Since June is the last month of Q3, it's possible that there are constraints against the 27% per quarter law.

Regardless, whichever USCIS Inventory you care to believe (August 2017 is the last one that really made sense), December 2008 had significantly more cases than earlier months in 2008.

Possibly EB2-I cases with December PD could have interfiled when Filing Dates were last allowed in December 2016, but they could not have been approved until now.

In addition, until a few months ago, December 2008 PDs Final Action Date hadn't been current since October 2014.

Wouldn't the interfiled applications account for an interview? If Yes, they are excluded out of demand unless interview is complete in last few months of FY 2018.

It only indicates wastage of visa's

[skpanda]

I just dont understand where is the demand coming from? Everybidy who had to port have for surr porter in the last 10 years.

I am getting a feeling that CO is just screwing with EB2I because of thr lawsuit from Greg siskind. That lawsuit from Greg and whoever supported him was insane.

Jagan,
With due respect, I disagree with you. I was one of the plaintiffs of the Lawsuit. Hindsight vision 20/20. I still feel we had a strong case. Unfortunately it did not go in our favor.

I strongly believe in doing something is better than doing nothing at all.

I would be happy to have a constructive discussion with you offline if you wish to know specifics of the lawsuit.

Peace!

[Spectator]

Wouldn't the interfiled applications account for an interview? If Yes, they are excluded out of demand unless interview is complete in last few months of FY 2018.

It only indicates wastage of visa's

Interfiling just means informing USCIS that you wish to use a different I-140 category as the basis for adjudication of the already existing I-485 application.

It doesn't alter the date the existing I-485 was filed.

As far as I am aware, it is the receipt date of the I-485 that determines whether an interview is mandatory.

For almost all EB3 to EB2 India porting cases, the I-485 will have been filed before the cut off date of March 7, 2017.

[march1612]

Interfiling just means informing USCIS that you wish to use a different I-140 category as the basis for adjudication of the already existing I-485 application.

It doesn't alter the date the existing I-485 was filed.

As far as I am aware, it is the receipt date of the I-485 that determines whether an interview is mandatory.

For almost all EB3 to EB2 India porting cases, the I-485 will have been filed before the cut off date of March 7, 2017.

Thank you, These application would be showing up in April 2018 inventory to predict the movement?

[EB3Iwaiting]

Interfiling just means informing USCIS that you wish to use a different I-140 category as the basis for adjudication of the already existing I-485 application.

It doesn't alter the date the existing I-485 was filed.

As far as I am aware, it is the receipt date of the I-485 that determines whether an interview is mandatory.

For almost all EB3 to EB2 India porting cases, the I-485 will have been filed before the cut off date of March 7, 2017.

Spec, isn't it safe to say that most if not all EB2I cases being processed are currently ported cases? Original EB2Is must have gotten GCs. If that is the case, folks with EB3I PDs after July 2007 but have ported to EB2I have not filed AOS in EB3I at all. I am sure there are many such cases even after March 7, 2017. Porting is literally happening every day. It may have slowed down only recently with the rapid EB3I movement, like someone in late 2008 EB3I may now choose to wait it out instead of porting but others like him may have ported AFTER March 7, 2017 and are filing AOS for the first time.

[march1612]

Pretty much all application that have been applied before March 2017 would require redoing Medicals.

If EB2-I are moved into 2009 in Q4, will there be sufficient time to respond to those RFE's on time by all pending applications?.

I am sensing moving dates in Q4 will lead to wastage of Visa numbers.

[Jagan01]

Pretty much all application that have been applied before March 2017 would require redoing Medicals.

If EB2-I are moved into 2009 in Q4, will there be sufficient time to respond to those RFE's on time by all pending applications?.

I am sensing moving dates in Q4 will lead to wastage of Visa numbers.

1. Many people until Mar 2009 have either gotten RFE or are receiving them as we speak.
2. All these people will have a chance to be approved

There are at least 4000 people in the first 3 months of 2009 and hence they might be able to consume a good SO. Now if the SO is going to be more than 4000 then you might be correct.

[rock581]

The bigger question is what happens to the EB3ROW spillover. I think it is fair to assume the EB3I inventory build up is not sufficient.

1. Many people until Mar 2009 have either gotten RFE or are receiving them as we speak.
2. All these people will have a chance to be approved

There are at least 4000 people in the first 3 months of 2009 and hence they might be able to consume a good SO. Now if the SO is going to be more than 4000 then you might be correct.

[tatikonda]

Gurus,

What will be the effect of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) termination of Honduras, Nepalis, etc will have on EB Category.
Some of them may be trying to convert to EB Category ? Any thoughts on this.

The bigger question is what happens to the EB3ROW spillover. I think it is fair to assume the EB3I inventory build up is not sufficient.

[LASHAB]

Even if there is more than 4k SO there is enough inventory in EB2I to not waste any visas.

[texas_]

Gurus,

What will be the effect of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) termination of Honduras, Nepalis, etc will have on EB Category.
Some of them may be trying to convert to EB Category ? Any thoughts on this.

There might be some in-flow especially into EB3 category but it wouldn't be noticeable. I think I have seen some farm companies filings for lot of perms for folks from Haiti a while back. I think it's Perdue farms some something like that.

[AceMan]

Third quarter is over, the big movement potential has to happen for the July bulletin

[AceMan]

Pretty much all application that have been applied before March 2017 would require redoing Medicals.

If EB2-I are moved into 2009 in Q4, will there be sufficient time to respond to those RFE's on time by all pending applications?.

I am sensing moving dates in Q4 will lead to wastage of Visa numbers.

Technically the visa numbers won't get wasted. The left over numbers in Employment category, if any will get allocated to family based category for FY 2019.

[tatikonda]

Hi All,

It appears that there are about approx 300,000 folks under Temporary Protected Status (TPS).
Even if 0.5% of them try to get into EB3 Category, it would effect EB3 noticeably and therefore EB2.
Any thoughts.

https://immigrationforum.org/blog/fa...tected-status/

There might be some in-flow especially into EB3 category but it wouldn't be noticeable. I think I have seen some farm companies filings for lot of perms for folks from Haiti a while back. I think it's Perdue farms some something like that.