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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #2801
    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    Pending inventory is useless now. The applications have now moved to field offices for interviews. No way to tell how many are in ROW or even afterwards how many in EB3I waiting post July 07.
    So are you sayin the PI only has cases that have not moved to Field Offices. Would they be the cases filed before October 1, 2017? How do we get the Field Office Inventory?

  2. #2802
    Quote Originally Posted by bikenlalan View Post
    April 2018 485 Pending Inventory Published
    https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...April_2018.pdf

    April 2018 January 2018 Net Reduction
    EB2-I 17658 18448 790
    EB3-I 2917 4269 1352
    Haha, EB1 reduced crazy. I am not sure what is going on??? Hmm

  3. #2803
    Perhaps this ....???

    http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ll=1#post59162

    Quote Originally Posted by texas_ View Post
    Haha, EB1 reduced crazy. I am not sure what is going on??? Hmm
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  4. #2804
    No it doesn't look like S-P Inc AAO decision affecting overall EB1 reduction. It's a something else. Numbers have been fudged up to a great extent.
    How come overall EB Inventory drastically reduced without changing much to 48K. Unbelievable

  5. #2805
    Quote Originally Posted by texas_ View Post
    Haha, EB1 reduced crazy. I am not sure what is going on??? Hmm
    April one is for All Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers and January one is for All Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers and Field Offices. If you notice EB1, EB2 and EB3 in April one, pending inventory after March 2017 is zero as all pending applications are moved to NBC or field offices for mandated interviews.

    EB2I inventory in 2008 is reduced by ~900 from Jan to April but It's difficult analyze and estimate spillovers without field offices inventory and this document is not of much help.

  6. #2806
    My priority date is Feb 2011. What's the prediction on it being current for eb2I?

  7. #2807
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    I sincerely apologize with all due respect to anyone whom ever concerned.

  8. #2808
    That means from January 2018 there were total close to 100,000 pending EB green cards. Now its close to 48K. So 52K are awaiting in line for mandated Interviews from Jan thru April 2018.

    I doubt that the pending inventory at the service center for 48K would increase unless, there is inventory build up occurs

  9. #2809
    My priority date for EB2I is Feb, 2011. What's the prediction of my faster being current?

  10. #2810
    Quote Originally Posted by texas_ View Post
    I sincerely apologize with all due respect to anyone whom ever concerned.
    Hey Texas - what are you apologizing for!

    This forum is meant for establishing clarity. None of us know why things move the way they do. We can only make intelligent guesses based on available facts and information.

    So speak up your mind and don't worry a thing.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  11. #2811
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Hey Texas - what are you apologizing for!

    This forum is meant for establishing clarity. None of us know why things move the way they do. We can only make intelligent guesses based on available facts and information.

    So speak up your mind and don't worry a thing.

    Understood!

  12. #2812
    Quote Originally Posted by texas_ View Post
    Understood!
    Sorry I am too busy to respond and hence I did not respond to your argument earlier.

    My silence means either I agree or don't have much to add to the conversation. If I had disagreed - I would never keep silent!
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  13. #2813
    No one here would be able to predict but I hope we all would get it eventually.

  14. #2814
    Hi Spec/Q and Other Gurus,

    Since we are seeing drastic reduction of inventory data, can we expect some forward movement in EB2-India.
    I know that, EB2-I inventory reduce only few hundreds but overall EB2 category is reduced by lot. moreover USCIS may need more applications to keep them busy?

    Also, if not "Final Action Dates", At least "Filing Dates" for EB2-India needs to move forward. It is still in April 2009.
    BTW, What happened to the case they files against moving "Filing Dates" back in Oct 2015.

    Please share your thoughts.

    Thanks
    Tatikonda.

    Quote Originally Posted by bikenlalan View Post
    April 2018 485 Pending Inventory Published
    https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...April_2018.pdf

    April 2018 January 2018 Net Reduction
    EB2-I 17658 18448 790
    EB3-I 2917 4269 1352

  15. #2815
    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    Pending inventory is useless now. The applications have now moved to field offices for interviews. No way to tell how many are in ROW or even afterwards how many in EB3I waiting post July 07.
    That does not make sense bro. You are saying the applications have moved to field offices for interviews, that means they are current and waiting to be approved. If that is true, then how come EB3ROW 2017 cases are not showing up in the Inventory at all, but older cases are showing up in the Inventory? Per your logic, the older cases should have moved out to Field Offices first as they are current and waiting to be approved, whereas the new applications should show up in the inventory (although they are also current, but are not supposed to be approved before the older cases)!

  16. #2816
    Quote Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar View Post
    That does not make sense bro. You are saying the applications have moved to field offices for interviews, that means they are current and waiting to be approved. If that is true, then how come EB3ROW 2017 cases are not showing up in the Inventory at all, but older cases are showing up in the Inventory? Per your logic, the older cases should have moved out to Field Offices first as they are current and waiting to be approved, whereas the new applications should show up in the inventory (although they are also current, but are not supposed to be approved before the older cases)!
    Not sure what they are doing but how is it that after March 2017, there are no numbers? It's as if they have never filed.

  17. #2817
    Hi,

    Inventory data shows in table "All Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers as of April 2018"
    But

    1) I see no cases in 2017 and 2018 for EB3. How is it possible, this is 2018 April and EB3-ROW is current all the time.
    2) I see only 703 is EB2, How is it possible ? We are 2018.
    3) Finally, EB1 ZERO CASES in 2018.

    I guess, I am missing something very obvious.

    Attachment 1339

    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    Not sure what they are doing but how is it that after March 2017, there are no numbers? It's as if they have never filed.

  18. #2818
    Yoda
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    313
    Quote Originally Posted by tatikonda View Post
    Hi,

    Inventory data shows in table "All Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers as of April 2018"
    But
    Attachment 1339
    Just move the header one column left (years) and console and satisfy ourselves and our prying eyes ;-)

  19. #2819
    2018 Mar Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance

    Url below
    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...issuances.html

    China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total
    EB1 119 21 09 03 29 03 162 346
    EB2 04 05 03 33 119 04 148 316
    EB3 91 88 41 451 52 03 298 1024
    EB4 07 09 00 00 01 00 114 131
    EB5 214 23 02 00 92 140 152 623
    Total 435 146 55 487 293 150 874 2440

  20. #2820
    Quote Originally Posted by tatikonda View Post
    Hi,

    Inventory data shows in table "All Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers as of April 2018"
    But

    1) I see no cases in 2017 and 2018 for EB3. How is it possible, this is 2018 April and EB3-ROW is current all the time.
    2) I see only 703 is EB2, How is it possible ? We are 2018.
    3) Finally, EB1 ZERO CASES in 2018.

    I guess, I am missing something very obvious.
    My understanding based on the report is "Perhaps they are counting the non interview cases, just in case if they have to give Green cards in last quarter without wasting visas and which takes less effort" Also they might have generated this report to CO.

  21. #2821
    Hi Spec/Q and other Gurus,

    Please share your thoughts on April 2018 Inventory Data and Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance Data.
    They does not seems to match.

    Regards
    Tatikonda.


    Quote Originally Posted by redsox2009 View Post
    2018 Mar Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance

    Url below
    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...issuances.html

    China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total
    EB1 119 21 09 03 29 03 162 346
    EB2 04 05 03 33 119 04 148 316
    EB3 91 88 41 451 52 03 298 1024
    EB4 07 09 00 00 01 00 114 131
    EB5 214 23 02 00 92 140 152 623
    Total 435 146 55 487 293 150 874 2440

  22. #2822
    Quote Originally Posted by tatikonda View Post
    Hi Spec/Q and other Gurus,

    Please share your thoughts on April 2018 Inventory Data and Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance Data.
    They does not seems to match.

    Regards
    Tatikonda.
    Monthly visa issues seem like overseas numbers rather than aos cases.
    This post is not legal advice nor is a sale of any product or service. Speak with your lawyer for legal advice.
    WhereismyGC Website | Twitter | FB Page | or join our Green Card Backlog FB Group

  23. #2823
    Quote Originally Posted by whereismygc View Post
    Monthly visa issues seem like overseas numbers rather than aos cases.
    Sounds like a logical explanation. If I project it to the annual total, comes to 20% of Total Visa issuance.

  24. #2824
    Yoda
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    313
    USCIS Changes STEM OPT Employment Policy Prohibiting Out-Placed Employment and Training
    From the OH Law Firm. I know its been around for some time. Was checking if this would impact the H1 filings for people doing masters here?
    If yes it could mean less applications for GC in future, not that it impacts us who are already in the queue for more than 10 years.

    It looks like its less promising to do masters in US, and better look at Canada and other countries!

  25. #2825
    Attachment 1340
    I am assuming we have not seen the impact of the Interview requirements on the Spillover yet. But correct me if I am wrong, shouldn't we start seeing the impact in a month or two? Just for example, I am attaching the Trackitt Data of EB1 filing. You can see from the total number that EB1 applications spiked in May 17 and then dropped all of a sudden. If you go in to details of those number, I see a dramatic drop in EB1C (mostly Indians) applications. My guess is they have started processing these March to May cases now. One they are done processing these cases, we should see big spillover from EB1 to EB2 (Probably end of this year or early next year). I hope they will notice the drop in EB1C applications and start using using SO on EB2I from Oct. 18. This can move the date in the late 2009 by the end of 2018.

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