EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[shekhar_kuruk]

Interesting observation



This is the part that I am not clear. If Interview is mandatory, what you say does make sense. But I still see ROW cases being approved in as little as 6 months. So, I think, Interview may not be mandatory if the Background check comes out clean. Let us see how it pans out. It will definitely be a bumper movement for EB2I. I expect almost 6-8K movement if interview is mandatory.

Also I think anybody from EB3I who will be current in the next month's bulletin will have a hard time getting approved because of the mandatory interview. All they are getting is EAD/AP and will probably get greened in a year if the dates do not retrogress.
I hope that the spillover from EB3I flows to EB2I but I am not so sure. I think EB1I will also get some share of it.
Spec or Q, can any one of you share your thoughts on this. Even if we do get half of it, it should be move EB2I a few months. Also at some point, may be in the last quarter, the CO will have to move the dates for EB2I a little more so that none of the EB2 visas are wasted.
The reason being the interview requirement for EB2ROW and the wait times. My 2 cents.

[iatiam]

Interesting observation



This is the part that I am not clear. If Interview is mandatory, what you say does make sense. But I still see ROW cases being approved in as little as 6 months. So, I think, Interview may not be mandatory if the Background check comes out clean. Let us see how it pans out. It will definitely be a bumper movement for EB2I. I expect almost 6-8K movement if interview is mandatory.

Interview is mandatory if the filing was done after March 2017. Here is the USCIS link,
https://www.uscis.gov/news/news-rele...ncy-applicants

Iatiam

[iatiam]

Obviously they were misallocated because of inefficiency of the department. And about the unused visas, you can read the immigrant visas info at:
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...ant-visas.html

And also on page 3 of this thread, iataim has given an explanation on how visa no were allocated to EB2I over the years and why they dried up because of increase and more filing in EB1C.

Inefficiency or not, visas were wrongly allocated to non-EB3I categories. This is going to happen this year as well because of the interview requirement. There is no way USCIS can schedule an interview in five months because of the backlog at the centers.

Iatiam

[EB3Iwaiting]

Inefficiency or not, visas were wrongly allocated to non-EB3I categories. This is going to happen this year as well because of the interview requirement. There is no way USCIS can schedule an interview in five months because of the backlog at the centers.

Iatiam

Which is why people are speculating that the excess GCs from EB3I will be moved to EB2I or EB1I to avoid wastage. This has already happened the past few years as CO did not aggressively move EB3I dates early in the year.

[srimurthy]

Which is why people are speculating that the excess GCs from EB3I will be moved to EB2I or EB1I to avoid wastage. This has already happened the past few years as CO did not aggressively move EB3I dates early in the year.

If the case is of visas availability because of interviews, ideally they should go to EB1 from EB3I, but since all new EB1C filings also would need interviews, I am not sure whether they will be wasted or allocated to EB2I as EB2I has a lot in the line when people files 485s in 2012. So may be good news if they are allocated to EB2I.

[suninphx]

Hi Spec,

There is a growing chatter(mainly trackitt) about possibility EB3 visas being allocated to EB1/2-I to avoid visa wastage this FY. What's your take? Do you see a possibility of that happening? I know this has happened in the past but numbers this time around could be significantly higher, so I am wondering.

[idliman]

Hi Spec,

There is a growing chatter(mainly trackitt) about possibility EB3 visas being allocated to EB1/2-I to avoid visa wastage this FY. What's your take? Do you see a possibility of that happening? I know this has happened in the past but numbers this time around could be significantly higher, so I am wondering.

In my understanding, it is totally under the discretion of Charlie Oppenheim (CO). He can move the dates very late like last year and claim that not many people applied and got approved. The fact that he moved the dates late is not an issue at all (for USCIS). It is like being stopped by the cops while driving; they can say anything to you and get away with it.

Most of the decisions are driven by the mood of the administration. I believe CO is a career official and has to make his political appointee bosses satisfied and not show preference one way or other. Given the setting, he will play it safe. He is not going to move the dates till it is very late.

[canada]

When do you guys think EB2 India August 28,2009 will be current?

I missed the boat in 2012 of getting EAD/ AP due to delay in birth certificates for myself and spouse.

Thanks

[suninphx]

In my understanding, it is totally under the discretion of Charlie Oppenheim (CO).

Not disagreeing with this. Just wondering if EB3 visas will be allocated to EB1-2 ( not even sure under which clause) ...or visas will be wasted.

[EB3Iwaiting]

These are the 2016 Visa Allocations:

Attachment 1337

These are the 2017 Visa Allocations:

Attachment 1338

Credit to Spec for pulling these numbers.

Both years, EB3 were the biggest losers as they did not get their 40k share and numbers were sent to EB1. If not for these, what is happening with EB3I now should have happened 2 years ago. But now there is the added interview constraint which adds to the processing time. So, if the numbers are not given to EB3I, where will they go?

[Spectator]

I've managed to update the PERM Data in the FACTS & DATA section with the Q2 FY2018 figures.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

There is a growing chatter(mainly trackitt) about possibility EB3 visas being allocated to EB1/2-I to avoid visa wastage this FY. What's your take? Do you see a possibility of that happening? I know this has happened in the past but numbers this time around could be significantly higher, so I am wondering.

suninphx,

I'm a bit hesitant to answer this question.

I hope we do not get into a situation where EB visas are wasted because EB3 has insufficient demand before the FY ends. FB can't gain any advantage next FY, even if they are made available.

Contrary to the view that CO has great discretion, I believe he is bound by what the INA allows him to do.

Let's first look at the Family Based (FB) allocation rules for spillover:

I've simplified the extracts from the INA by replacing paragraph numbers with the relevant FB or EB class to aid readability.

(a) Preference Allocation for Family-Sponsored Immigrants. - Aliens subject to the worldwide level specified in section 201(c) for family-sponsored immigrants shall be allotted visas as follows:

(FB1) Unmarried sons and daughters of citizens. - Qualified immigrants who are the unmarried sons or daughters of citizens of the United States shall be allocated visas in a number not to exceed 23,400, plus any visas not required for FB4.

(FB2) Spouses and unmarried sons and unmarried daughters of permanent resident aliens. - Qualified immigrants -

(A) who are the spouses or children of an alien lawfully admitted for permanent residence, or

(B) who are the unmarried sons or unmarried daughters (but are not the children) of an alien lawfully admitted for permanent residence, shall be allocated visas in a number not to exceed 114,200, plus the number (if any) by which such worldwide level exceeds 226,000, plus any visas not required for FB1; except that not less than 77 percent of such visa numbers shall be allocated to aliens described in subparagraph (A).

(FB3) Married sons and married daughters of citizens. - Qualified immigrants who are the married sons or married daughters of citizens of the United States shall be allocated visas in a number not to exceed 23,400, plus any visas not required for FB1 and FB2.

(FB4) Brothers and sisters of citizens. - Qualified immigrants who are the brothers or sisters of citizens of the United States, if such citizens are at least 21 years of age, shall be allocated visas in a number not to exceed 65,000, plus any visas not required for FB1 through FB3.

This describes a circular system, whereby spare visas can fall down the FB classes and then back up to the top if necessary:

FB1 ---> FB2 ---> FB3 ---> FB4 -
|__________________<____________|


The law specifically allows unused visas in FB4 to fall up FB1, where they could then fall down to any other FB class that required it if necessary.


Here's the Employment Based rules:

(b) Preference Allocation for Employment-Based Immigrants. - Aliens subject to the worldwide level specified in section 201(d) for employment-based immigrants in a fiscal year shall be allotted visas as follows:

(EB1) Priority workers. - Visas shall first be made available in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for EB4 and EB5, to qualified immigrants who are aliens described in any of the following subparagraphs (A) through (C):

(EB2) Aliens who are members of the professions holding advanced degrees or aliens of exceptional ability. -

(A) In general. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for EB1, to qualified immigrants who are members of the professions holding advanced degrees or their equivalent or who because of their exceptional ability in the sciences, arts, or business, will substantially benefit prospectively the national economy, cultural or educational interests, or welfare of the United States, an d whose services in the sciences, arts, professions, or business are sought by an employer in the United States.

(EB3) Skilled workers, professionals, and other workers.-

(A) In general. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for EB1 and EB2, to the following classes of aliens who are not described in paragraph (2):

(EB4) Certain special immigrants. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 7.1 percent of such worldwide level, to qualified special immigrants described in section 101(a)(27) (other than those described in subparagraph (A) or (B) thereof), of which not more than 5,000 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants described in subclause (II) or (III) of section 101(a)(27)(C)(ii) , 2/ and not more than 100 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants, excluding spouses and children, who are described in section 101(a)(27)(M) .

(EB5) Employment creation. -

(A) In general. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 7.1 percent of such worldwide level, to qualified immigrants seeking to enter the United States for the purpose of engaging in a new commercial enterprise (including a limited partnership)--

This describes a system where unused EB4 & EB5 visas can fall up to EB1. Unused visas can fall down from EB1 to EB2 or EB3 and unused visas in EB2 can fall down to EB3.

EB4 & EB5 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3


There isn't a stated mechanism (unlike for FB) for unused visas in EB3 to be used by any other EB class (EB1, EB2, EB4 or EB5).

I certainly have a worry that CO cannot just arbitrarily give unused EB3 visas to other EB categories.

Even if he does find a way, then all the other categories have retrogression for some Countries, so he would have to decide how to distribute the numbers.

I'll watch what happens with interest.

[mesan123]

Hi Q, Spec,

Posting here after a long time. I have a question pertaining to EBI catogery, I see EB1 only for international Managers/Executives... Does a Person qualify if he is working on Managerial/Executive in the new job he is in and in previous employment also managed people. But the employment is with in USA. CAn he/she apply GC in EB1 category?

Can some one answer this query? Thank you in advance

[newyorker123]

Hi Q, Spec,

Posting here after a long time. I have a question pertaining to EBI catogery, I see EB1 only for international Managers/Executives... Does a Person qualify if he is working on Managerial/Executive in the new job he is in and in previous employment also managed people. But the employment is with in USA. CAn he/she apply GC in EB1 category?

Can some one answer this query? Thank you in advance

What you are talking about is EB1C - Multinational Managers, and as the term notes, you need to be outside of country for 1 year out of last 3 years. And you need to be in an overseas arm of the same organization.
Of course there are EB1A / EB1B which have completely different qualification criteria altogether.

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB4 & EB5 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3

[/FONT]
There isn't a stated mechanism (unlike for FB) for unused visas in EB3 to be used by any other EB class (EB1, EB2, EB4 or EB5).

I certainly have a worry that CO cannot just arbitrarily give unused EB3 visas to other EB categories.

Even if he does find a way, then all the other categories have retrogression for some Countries, so he would have to decide how to distribute the numbers.

I'll watch what happens with interest.

Thanks for the response Spec. It is clear that visas flow from EB1 to EB2 to EB3 to EB4 to EB5 and then back up to EB1.

But then how can we explain the visa allocations from FY 2016 and FY 2017 as I posted just a few posts ago? For FY 2016, it certainly looks clear and EB2 and EB3 did not get their 40k share and that was given to EB1 who ended up getting 3.7k more. EB2 got some 900 less and EB3 got around 2500 less.

In FY 2017, EB1 again got 1.8k more and EB3 got around 2.3k less, some 400 visas were wasted. As EB4 and EB5 got their allocated shares, it certainly looks like EB2 and EB3 visas were taken out and given to EB1.

[GCdreamz]

With the figures I have, here is how I reached the PERM Certification figure I used.

Hope that helps.

Thank you Spec!!!

[Spectator]

Thanks for the response Spec. It is clear that visas flow from EB1 to EB2 to EB3 to EB4 to EB5 and then back up to EB1.

This is not the case. There is no stated mechanism in the INA for "EB3 to EB4 to EB5 and then back up to EB1". It ends at EB2 to EB3.

This is in direct contrast to FB where there is a clearly stated route in the INA from FB4 to FB1.

But then how can we explain the visa allocations from FY 2016 and FY 2017 as I posted just a few posts ago? For FY 2016, it certainly looks clear and EB2 and EB3 did not get their 40k share and that was given to EB1 who ended up getting 3.7k more. EB2 got some 900 less and EB3 got around 2500 less.

In FY 2017, EB1 again got 1.8k more and EB3 got around 2.3k less, some 400 visas were wasted. As EB4 and EB5 got their allocated shares, it certainly looks like EB2 and EB3 visas were taken out and given to EB1.

It is relatively easy to get the timings of retrogression wrong for EB1-IC, which leads to more visas being allocated than allowed. CO might not have sufficient warning at the end of the FY to also retrogress EB1-WW.

Since the overall EB limit still applies (often 140k), then an over allocation in one category will result in fewer allocations to some other categories.

As well as your examples, essentially the same situation benefited EB2-IC in 2012, but the damage was confined to EB2.

The obvious solution would be to have a lesser, but permanent retrogression of EB1-IC to control visa issuance over the entire FY.

The above scenario would certainly give the impression that EB2 and EB3 visas were taken out and given to EB1, but it is not necessarily the case that they actually were.

The above situation is, IMO, entirely different to deliberately moving visas from EB3 to other categories, if the law doesn't allow it.

For EB2-I to benefit, CO would have to move the FAD forward deliberately. It cannot be a mistake or bad timing. He can't finesse it to look like either.

If, somewhere in the INA or CFR, there is a mechanism which allows this, then CO would probably also have to spread any spare EB3 visa numbers across EB1, EB2, EB4 and EB5 in a proportionate manner (i.e. 40:40:10:10) given they all have retrogression of at least one Country.

As I said before, I await the outcome with a fair amount of interest. It's a test case of what CO can and can't do. I hope he finds a way, otherwise the visas will be completely wasted.

[suninphx]

Spec,

Thank you so very much for the detailed responses.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thank you so very much for the detailed responses.

suninphx,

You are welcome.

Sincerely hoping to be wrong (or at least have missed something important) on this occasion.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

You are welcome.

Sincerely hoping to be wrong (or at least have missed something important) on this occasion.

Spec,

I understand. Any amount of visa wastage would be really really unfortunate at this point.

On a side note, I keep reading about interview and subsequent visa approval experiences specially for EB-ROW and whole process seems to have really slowed down. In some cases its taking months for GC to get approved after interview. (Getting interview date is another hurdle).

This probably would give some horizontal spillover to EB2I but who knows.

In either case, I would like to see sizable chunk of RFEs being issued at least until Jun 09 for EB2I if any of this were to happen.

Thanks again!

[EB3Iwaiting]

As I said before, I await the outcome with a fair amount of interest. It's a test case of what CO can and can't do. I hope he finds a way, otherwise the visas will be completely wasted.

Thanks for the detailed response Spec. Certainly appreciate it. I completely agree with you and sincerely hope that CO finds a way to not waste the visas.

[bikenlalan]

April 2018 485 Pending Inventory Published
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...April_2018.pdf

April 2018 January 2018 Net Reduction
EB2-I 17658 18448 790
EB3-I 2917 4269 1352

[EB3Iwaiting]

Pending inventory is useless now. The applications have now moved to field offices for interviews. No way to tell how many are in ROW or even afterwards how many in EB3I waiting post July 07.

[oraclept]

things happen. let them laugh or discriminate you. All we have to stand with hope and no fear. It is sad and hard to do but takes time.
I dont care if anyone thinks of me differently.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I sympathise with you all, but remember this is a EB2-3 Predictions thread!!