Interesting points from the bulletin are
.Only EB-3 India and EB-2 China Final Dates moved.
.Only India EB-2 and EB-3, Filing dates moved.
Rest of the countries did not move, USCIS might not honor Filing dates, as Vietnam category is missing.
As always we have next month and hope next month bulletin will be better move than this month.
Considering EB3I movement in April Bulletin, I think it's good movement for EB3I and good expectation for EB2I.
Don't know if EB2I Date of filing movement is based on expected Spill Over or to Build Inventory (think mostly for Inventory).
I think we might end the Fiscal Year with EB2I/EB3I dates at Apr09 (if inventory buildup is done for both the categories).
Inventory build up is not required for EB2I. CO has pretty good idea on EB2I inventory till May 2010. The filing date movement is useless in terms of actual filing as USCIS does not honor those dates. Maybe he moved the date expecting some movement towards the end of FY?Originally Posted by GCdreamz
I did notice the EB2I filing date movement, so will let the experts chime in on that. I also do think that EB3I may catch up with EB2I by the end of this FY.
From May 2009 to July 2010, I see around 26K Perm Applications were approved for India.
https://www.permchecker.com/search/s.../country=INDIA
1. Is this number 26K reflect EB2 & EB3 only?
2. Is it correct to estimate 26K*2=52K as demand (considering spouse being counted in the quota)?
3. Conservative estimate of PD July 2010 being current - Oct 2019? Reasonable?
Please share better sources if you any...
It will be interesting to see what people think.
My take, people with PDs before Apr 09 will get current in EB2 before EB3. As a result they would stay with EB2.
It will be interesting to see what people with PDs in or after Apr 09 do.
In families where both spouses have their PDs, they might just go with one staying in EB2 and another in EB3. Interesting to see what families with inly one primary applicant and PD on or after Apr 09 do.
GCdreamz, where do you see 52K - (2 * 2800) = 46.4K numbers available and coming from? I don't see that many coming from EB3 ROW spill over that will help EB3I, but not EB2I. So I doubt there is any change that Jul 2010 would be current by Oct 19.
Unless there is less filing in EB1 because of interviews and EB1C reduction in numbers there is little chance for any spill over for EB2I
Others can correct me.
Spillover for EB2I will come from EB3I. If you recall, Spec said the demand data for DOS will come when USCIS adjucates a 485 and requests a visa number. In order to do that there needs to be an interview to be conducted by field offices. Currently all field offices have an interview wait time of 10 to 12 months average. CO can move EB3I dates to next century but there is no point. It too little, too late.
Expect a bumper year for EB2I and another bad year for EB3I. The only silver lining would be that the dates have progressed beyond Aug 2007 which will give some relief.
Iatiam
I think Permchecker.com only shows the number of PERM certifications for the period, not the number for the PD.
You'd be better looking at the figures in this forum, which attempt to do that.
May 2009 to July 2010 gives nearer 20.5k.
In making any calculation, you would need to add EB2-NIW and Schedule A cases and deduct any cases that were approved when the dates were last current for these PD's.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
EB2 PD Dec 2010. If EB3 becomes current for my PD, there is no doubt in my mind that i will port down to get EAD and AP.
Meanwhile, my EB2 140 application is still there. If EB2 becomes current for my PD, I will file I485 for EB2 as well.
Which ever category gives me GC first.. i will take it.
Shouldn't this be obvious choice for most? What are the reasons that will keep people from doing above?
looks like eb2-row trackitt approvals slowed down...
EB2-I, PD - 03/25/2009
As I understand the spillover can be across or spill down, so there is no way the EB3I numbers are coming over to EB2I
So where did all the wasted EB3I numbers go all these years. It has to go somewhere.
Q2 Perm Stats were released.
Interesting points are PERM filings are down, but overall perm filings are UP.
Over all Prevailing wage are down, hopefully next quarter also PERM filings will be down.
Under Visa classifications, PERM applicants with H1 visa category are down. Remaining categories did not see much change.
https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta...._FY2018_Q2.pdf
https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta...._FY2018_Q2.pdf
Q,
I tried to update the PERM Stats for Q2 in the forum.
I find I no longer have the privileges necessary to upload the documents needed.
I had deleted some Q1 images before finding out, so some posts no longer have the information.
Please let me know when I am able to upload images again.
Thanks
Spec
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Hello Gurus..
My EB3 PD is current as per May bulletin but I do not even have labor filed with my current employer (I know.. I'm not proud of myself on how I handled this). My previous employer who I have my labor and I140 approved with are not hiring h1s anymore. So switching back to them to continue my old gc is a long shot. Any advise on what are the best options in this situation. Thanks for reading and appreciate any advise.
Hi Spec
you are already a moderator in the forum. So not sure why. I will check.
Q
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
All you need to file your I-485 is an offer letter from your original employer with an intention to hire you once your GC is approved ( Others please correct me if I am wrong). GC is for future employment. They don't have to hire you now. All they need to give you is an offer letter, which I guess should not be an issue if they like to hire you once GC is approved.
Q,
Thanks, I appreciate it.
Obviously, I didn't have a problem approx 3 months ago, when I last updated the figures.
The error I get is:
If I refresh the page, I am logged in.You do not have permission to perform this action. Please refresh the page and login before trying again.
I've also tried logging out and back in again without success.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thank you gcq for your input, I will explore that option. And will continue to seek advises, if others have anything else to say or add.
Thank you Spec for the reply. Please help me understanding the numbers better.
In your forum, adding the numbers from May 2009 to July 2010 gave me nearly 17,600. Did you add estimated/actuals of EB2-NIW & Schedule A cases to get approx 20.5K? If not approx how many EB2-NIW & Schedule A cases will be there per month?
Approved cases last time dates were current + husband/wife having priority date + Relocation back to India etc though might be small fraction is a good addition to the hope of being closer. I am these scenarios add up to 5% to 10% of the demand.
Thanks for your help!!!
"Expect a bumper year for EB2I" - this will clear lot of Inventory and setup good trend for Oct 18. Lets hope for the best!!
Interesting observation
This is the part that I am not clear. If Interview is mandatory, what you say does make sense. But I still see ROW cases being approved in as little as 6 months. So, I think, Interview may not be mandatory if the Background check comes out clean. Let us see how it pans out. It will definitely be a bumper movement for EB2I. I expect almost 6-8K movement if interview is mandatory.If you recall, Spec said the demand data for DOS will come when USCIS adjucates a 485 and requests a visa number. In order to do that there needs to be an interview to be conducted by field offices. Currently all field offices have an interview wait time of 10 to 12 months average. CO can move EB3I dates to next century but there is no point. It too little, too late.
Obviously they were misallocated because of inefficiency of the department. And about the unused visas, you can read the immigrant visas info at:
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...ant-visas.html
And also on page 3 of this thread, iataim has given an explanation on how visa no were allocated to EB2I over the years and why they dried up because of increase and more filing in EB1C.
With the figures I have, here is how I reached the PERM Certification figure I used.
The figures are for India only.
Priority ---------- No. --- Cumulative
May 2009 -------- 1,279 -------- 1,279
June 2009 ------- 1,283 -------- 2,562
July 2009 ------- 1,134 -------- 3,696
August 2009 ----- 1,095 -------- 4,791
September 2009 -- 1,344 -------- 6,135
October 2009 ---- 1,363 -------- 7,498
November 2009 --- 1,202 -------- 8,700
December 2009 --- 1,336 ------- 10,036
January 2010 ---- 1,320 ------- 11,356
February 2010 --- 1,182 ------- 12,538
March 2010 ------ 1,588 ------- 14,126
April 2010 ------ 1,492 ------- 15,618
May 2010 -------- 1,503 ------- 17,121
June 2010 ------- 1,867 ------- 18,988
July 2010 ------- 1,598 ------- 20,586
The above figures do not make any allowance for NIW or Schedule A. You will have to use your best estimation for these. I've never found any information about NIW and Schedule A has not been shown separately for about a decade.
Hope that helps.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec - Thanks for the numbers. Are these the perm numbers or pending 485s(which include spouse & dependents)?
TSC | PD: 12/21/2009 | RD: 02/14/12| ND: 02/16/12 | FP ND: 03/05/12 | FP: 03/26/12 | EAD/AP: ? | GC: ?
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