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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #2626
    It almost sounds like forget about the new bills/law and be happy if we get the legitimate numbers that we suppose to get under the current law.

  2. #2627
    I called Congressman Kevin Yoder's office yesterday to get an update on H.R 392 on where it stands and the urgency of folks stuck in EB india catgeory. The secretary mentioned the plan is to include this bill in the large appropriations bill which is scheduled for vote this month end.

    I request you all to call his office at (913) 621-0832 to raise this issue again. Please be courteous and professional as they very much understand the dire situation we are in. Thank you.

  3. #2628
    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    Was it not introduced in the first place to give more clarity and visibility on the number of applications and also allow back logged countries to file in advance and have the security of EAD and AC-21s.
    I think that was the stated reason. But I think Spec said it very wisely (see below). I do not know if those are his words or the words of USCIS.
    Moving those (Final Action Dates) forward large amounts has consequences - consequences the concept of Filing Dates was supposed to make sure didn't happen.
    In other words USCIS' intention is to minimize AC21 benefits. If there are large movements then people will enjoy AC21 benefits much longer. Spec thinks USCIS has a strong anti-immigrant element while DoS being a global department is much more liberal. I think generally that's true. The only place where I tend to disagree (and perhaps its my own lack of intimate knowledge of how these departments work) is that I find it hard to believe that they have policy differences at departmental level. Seeing how under Trump DoS is suffering, i have started to think I may be wrong.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  4. #2629

    I-797A vs. I-94 Expiry Date Question?

    Hi Spec and other Gurus:

    I have a question for you. My H-1B extension was approved recently, but I noticed a problem on my approval form. The expiry date on my newly attached I-94 is earlier than the expiry date mentioned on the form I-797A. The one on the I-797A is correct. So, the question is why these two dates are different? Is it a mistake? It has nothing to do with my passport expiry date either. Should I even bother about this discrepancy since my I-485 application is pending and I also have an EAD/AP? Please advise.

  5. #2630
    Quote Originally Posted by itsmusa View Post
    Hi all, I am about to send my EAD/AP renewal and I noticed that EAD I-765 USCIS form expired on 2/28/2018. I have waited for a week, but it's not yet updated. I am wondering if I sent this form, my package would get rejected. Anyone having gone thru similar experience, please advise.

    Since this is the most watched thread, I placed it here. Please move as required.
    Hi all - Please advise.

  6. #2631
    I am all set re: I-765 EAD.

    I called USCIS 1-800-375-5283
    option 1 - English
    option 1 - request a form
    option 2 - speak to rep

    USCIS rep confirmed that I-765 EAD, though shows expired 02/28/2018, USCIS goes by the edition date - that is in the footer - 7/17/17 and that's the most up-to-date edition as of now. So, recommended me to send that form I-765 EAD.

    Also, on USCIS website, on I-765 EAD page, under form edition section, it's clarified - 07/17/17. A new edition of this form is coming soon. In the meantime, you may file using the 07/17/17 edition. You can find the edition date at the bottom of the page on the form and instructions.

  7. #2632
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    Quote Originally Posted by itsmusa View Post
    I am all set re: I-765 EAD.

    I called USCIS 1-800-375-5283
    option 1 - English
    option 1 - request a form
    option 2 - speak to rep

    USCIS rep confirmed that I-765 EAD, though shows expired 02/28/2018, USCIS goes by the edition date - that is in the footer - 7/17/17 and that's the most up-to-date edition as of now. So, recommended me to send that form I-765 EAD.

    Also, on USCIS website, on I-765 EAD page, under form edition section, it's clarified - 07/17/17. A new edition of this form is coming soon. In the meantime, you may file using the 07/17/17 edition. You can find the edition date at the bottom of the page on the form and instructions.
    Cool... Thanks for the info.

  8. #2633
    Hi guys, I have a question. As we know, that EB3 row PI is very low, so there will definitely be a huge spillover this year. I know there is no law/rule that all the spillover will be diverted to EB1 but based on the past patterns they eventually benefit the most from that spillover. EB2-1 got no spillover this year (declining SO every year) and is the most backlogged category currently.

    Since there is no visibility of dates after Aug 2007 for EB3-I, shouldn’t EB2-I folks start downgrading this year into EB3-I instead of waiting for EB3 to get past EB2l. I say that because I don’t want EB2 or EB3 to lose this year’s SO to EB1. That is there is no vertical spillover, from EB3 to EB1 or EB2. If we keep on waiting then based on historical data EB1 will use the entire SO again this year, as is also seen in P1 reduction of Jan 2018. But if both EB2 and EB3 have enough numbers then SO stays horizontal.

    From all I have heard if you are in both EB2 and EB3, you can use any I-140, unless that’s not true. Is there a way to keep SO in EB2 and EB3 because by the time EB2 downgrades will happen, EB1C would’ve already used the SO again for this year from EB3? I just hope it could be on the money (at the right moment) and not lose another year. I would be happy if EB2 or EB3 uses that SO but not EB1. The only way to keep it horizontal is to have enough numbers in both EB2 and EB3 otherwise it goes to EB1 again. EB2 already has enough numbers but not EB3. I asked this question because EB3 P1 is very low this year (around 17K). Again I might be wrong about this.

  9. #2634
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    Quote Originally Posted by vedu View Post
    Hi Spec and other Gurus:

    I have a question for you. My H-1B extension was approved recently, but I noticed a problem on my approval form. The expiry date on my newly attached I-94 is earlier than the expiry date mentioned on the form I-797A. The one on the I-797A is correct. So, the question is why these two dates are different? Is it a mistake? It has nothing to do with my passport expiry date either. Should I even bother about this discrepancy since my I-485 application is pending and I also have an EAD/AP? Please advise.
    My suggestion is to get it fixed. In general, if you are on H1B status, it is better to continue to be on it rather on switch to EAD/AP.

  10. #2635
    Quote Originally Posted by tenyearsgone View Post
    My suggestion is to get it fixed. In general, if you are on H1B status, it is better to continue to be on it rather on switch to EAD/AP.
    TYG, thanks for your suggestion. Technically, I am on H1-B now since it has been renewed recently. My new I-94 will expire in early 2020 and I-797A will expire in late 2020. So, the question would be what happens when I-94 expires? Do I have to go out of the country and get the visa stamp/new I-94? Or can I ignore the I-94 because of pending I-485 status and continue to work on the H1B status beyond the I-94 expiry date without leaving the country?

    I guess I am just hesitant to unnecessarily reopen the case to fix a small error in these uncertain times.

  11. #2636
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    Quote Originally Posted by vedu View Post
    TYG, thanks for your suggestion. Technically, I am on H1-B now since it has been renewed recently. My new I-94 will expire in early 2020 and I-797A will expire in late 2020. Or can I ignore the I-94 because of pending I-485 status and continue to work on the H1B status beyond the I-94 expiry date without leaving the country?
    It's hard to say. 2020 is a couple of years away... maybe you'll get your GC by then if you are lucky and this will all be moot. If your I-94 expires and you start working on EAD then any H1B extension that you apply for in late 2020 will come without a I-94. My understanding is that if your I-94 expires, you would have to switch to EAD unless you have applied for a H1B extension prior to such expiry.

    So, the question would be what happens when I-94 expires? Do I have to go out of the country and get the visa stamp/new I-94?
    I guess this would be one way to get the I94 fixed before expiry also.

    I guess I am just hesitant to unnecessarily reopen the case to fix a small error in these uncertain times.
    Totally hear you .

  12. #2637
    Hi Folks - My PD is 29-Jan-2009. Any idea when my dates will become current?

  13. #2638
    Quote Originally Posted by tenyearsgone View Post
    ... maybe you'll get your GC by then if you are lucky and this will all be moot.
    Hope this comes true for all of us. We are so close, yet so far away.

  14. #2639
    Who the hell knows in today's climate - but I would say that by the end of current FY (i.e by Sept) is strong possibility. I am assuming EB2I.
    Quote Originally Posted by Eagles_28 View Post
    Hi Folks - My PD is 29-Jan-2009. Any idea when my dates will become current?
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  15. #2640
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    April 2018 VB Released

    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...pril-2018.html

    EB2-I -- 22DEC08
    EB3-I -- 01FEB08

    EB1 China and India retrogress to 01JAN12 (effectively Unavailable)
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  16. #2641
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...pril-2018.html

    EB2-I -- 22DEC08
    EB3-I -- 01FEB08

    EB1 China and India retrogress to 01JAN12 (effectively Unavailable)
    This is amazing! 13 month movement to EB3I! Finally, JUSTICE! EB1 retrogressing means their quota is full and hopefully GCs won't be reallocated to them. EB3I moving all the way to Feb 08 means CO is building inventory. He expects good SO from EB3ROW and wants to allocate those to EB3I. He is giving enough time so that GCs remain in EB3 this year.

    YT's prediction was correct! If not for the misallocation over the past years, this should have happened few years ago, just as he had predicted!

  17. #2642
    Guys what do you think of EB2 I moving forward this year?

  18. #2643
    Hope EB2 I would also move during this summer

  19. #2644
    how abt EB2I? will it move at the same snail pace of 1 week ??? any chances of SO to move it till April 2009?
    EB2-I, PD - 03/25/2009

  20. #2645
    Quote Originally Posted by EB2-03252009 View Post
    how abt EB2I? will it move at the same snail pace of 1 week ??? any chances of SO to move it till April 2009?
    I would say so. Till EB21 and EB3I sync up. Only a EB2I and EB3I sync up makes sense. Any variance between the 2 Categories does not make sense.

  21. #2646
    I feel pity for China folks.

    EB3 Date is greater than EB2 which is greater than EB1.

    EB3 is 01Jun15
    EB2 is 01Aug14
    EB1 is 01Jan12

    Pretty sure that will occur to Indian Folks.

  22. #2647
    Quote Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar View Post
    If the Inventory as of Jan 2018 is accurate, here is my calculations and estimates:
    a)EB3 Total Inventory = 17,200
    b)Add trend filings in the next 4 months = 1000*4=4,000

    Note: that USCIS takes at least 6 months to approve an EB Petition after filing.

    Total Inventory that is available to USCIS to Approve before 30th September a+b = 21,200
    Total Visa number available in the 8 months = (40,000/12)*8 = 26,300

    ALL Pending EB3I will be cleared this year! If CO does not aggressively move EB3I Final Action dates (through June 2008), lot of EB3 Visa numbers will be wasted and be given to EB2
    Looks like this prediction came out true!!

  23. #2648
    With April bulletin , EB1 retrogression for china means EB3 China priority date is ahead of both EB2 China and EB1 China. EB3C is ahead of EB2C and EB2C is ahead of EB1 China. Logically this makes no sense.

  24. #2649
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    Quote Originally Posted by bluelabel View Post
    With April bulletin , EB1 retrogression for china means EB3 China priority date is ahead of both EB2 China and EB1 China. EB3C is ahead of EB2C and EB2C is ahead of EB1 China. Logically this makes no sense.
    I guess it makes complete sense when we look at the aspect that the qualifications and criteria are messed up for EB1 approvals.

  25. #2650
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...pril-2018.html

    EB2-I -- 22DEC08
    EB3-I -- 01FEB08

    EB1 China and India retrogress to 01JAN12 (effectively Unavailable)
    This is indeed great news for EB3I. Hopefully more to come as well. My own hypothesis is that there is not much demand in 2008 for EB3 due to slow movement of EB3 prior to that as well as great recession. No numbers to prove it.

    Congratulations to everyone!

    Iatiam

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