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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #2551
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    Quote Originally Posted by gten20 View Post
    I haven't heard of the 8 month max window before switching to new H1B?? Is that a window where you can start working for the new employer after the H1B has been filed till its approved?
    Yes. AFAIK, once you change employers and the new employer applies for a cap-exempt H1B, you can work based on the receipt for up to 8 months (240 days) unless the petition is adjudicated earlier. This is the same for a H1B extension also.


    Ofcourse, always consult an attorney for accurate and up-to-date information on these laws.

  2. #2552
    March Bulletin is out.

    some good news. I think CO is holding and expecting sudden increase in demand. Movement was not moved aggressively as we thought.

    China EB2 - 10 weeks
    China EB3 - 8 weeks
    China EB3 Other -4 weeks
    China EB5 -- No Movement

    EL Salvador EB4 -- NO Movement

    India EB2 -- 1 week
    India EB3 --- 1 Month

    Mexico EB4 --- 1 week

    Philippines EB3 -- 2 months



  3. #2553
    Don't see any good news - its business as usual I guess.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  4. #2554
    Quote Originally Posted by redsox2009 View Post
    March Bulletin is out.

    some good news. I think CO is holding and expecting sudden increase in demand. Movement was not moved aggressively as we thought.

    China EB2 - 10 weeks
    China EB3 - 8 weeks
    China EB3 Other -4 weeks
    China EB5 -- No Movement

    EL Salvador EB4 -- NO Movement

    India EB2 -- 1 week
    India EB3 --- 1 Month

    Mexico EB4 --- 1 week

    Philippines EB3 -- 2 months

    so frustrating to see the CO doesnt have the balls to move EB3 India dates more aggressively which can only mean EB3I again not getting its fair share of allocations at the end of the year!!!

  5. #2555
    Quote Originally Posted by anuprab View Post
    so frustrating to see the CO doesnt have the balls to move EB3 India dates more aggressively which can only mean EB3I again not getting its fair share of allocations at the end of the year!!!
    Anuprab, I think we are barking at the wrong tree. Let me ask you this, why is USCIS not accepting the filing dates. Even if CO were to move the dates, it is upto USCIS to accept it or not. The status quo is gonna continue until this summer until more visas are available.

    Iatiam

  6. #2556
    Quote Originally Posted by anuprab View Post
    so frustrating to see the CO doesnt have the balls to move EB3 India dates more aggressively which can only mean EB3I again not getting its fair share of allocations at the end of the year!!!
    The credit goes to Obama Administration who screwed us up with the introduction of new Visa bulletin format of Final and Application. This is the real reason dates are stagnant for EB India. Look into the pre 2015 visa bulletins to get an idea.

    Not sure, if anyone noticed........ EB China A and F dates moved by 2 months as compared to 1 week for EB-India. Does Charlie Opp have a beef with EB India or he is bent on screwing us for revenue generated by h1?

  7. #2557
    Oh Come On - dates are stagnant for EB-I because there are too many applicants in EB-I - and with enough EB-ROW applicants, there isn't as much (or any) spillover available as there used to be. EB-C is moving because there aren't as many applicants. If you see the PERM numbers compiled by Spec - or at permchecker.com, India applicants are more than half of all applicants. There are only two ways this will resolve - either there is a legislative fix (unlikely given the political climate) or we land into another recession that reduces the number of new filings significantly (like in 2008-2009).

    One exception - EB3-I has been a victim of underallocation by several thousands in last two years.

    Quote Originally Posted by altek001 View Post
    The credit goes to Obama Administration who screwed us up with the introduction of new Visa bulletin format of Final and Application. This is the real reason dates are stagnant for EB India. Look into the pre 2015 visa bulletins to get an idea.

    Not sure, if anyone noticed........ EB China A and F dates moved by 2 months as compared to 1 week for EB-India. Does Charlie Opp have a beef with EB India or he is bent on screwing us for revenue generated by h1?
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  8. #2558
    Quote Originally Posted by iatiam View Post
    Anuprab, I think we are barking at the wrong tree. Let me ask you this, why is USCIS not accepting the filing dates. Even if CO were to move the dates, it is upto USCIS to accept it or not. The status quo is gonna continue until this summer until more visas are available.

    Iatiam
    why bother with filing dates at all when CO knows fully well that USCIS' head is stuck in the sand! Move the final dates and go ahead..its not that complicated

  9. #2559
    Jan Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance

    Url below
    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...issuances.html

    China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total
    EB1 206 24 6 1 50 7 148 442
    EB2 14 8 7 27 132 7 109 304
    EB3 29 48 15 529 28 4 357 1010
    EB4 2 16 1 5 0 0 132 156
    EB5 505 41 6 0 30 100 168 850
    Total 756 137 35 562 240 118 914 2762

  10. #2560
    looks like specs want us to keep guessing abt the SO if any by not updating trackitt approvals for this FY
    EB2-I, PD - 03/25/2009

  11. #2561
    I thinks folks are grossly underestimating the impact of AOS interviews will have on the spill over. There are 120k Green cards given every year. If USCIS does not scale quickly I think it would be impossible to complete these interviews within the same fiscal year. According to DOS anyone who is filing 485 after March 2017 will need an interview , which means everyone who is filing new.

    I see EB1, EB3 and EB2 ROW are going to see a huge amount of slow down and EB2I will be a big beneficiary of it since all the existing demand in EB2I is from 2010 who dont need interviews.

  12. #2562
    Guys, I have a question unrelated to Green Card. Just posting it here to get a quick reply.

    Recently, me and my wife returned from India trip 3 weeks back. We had no issues with re-entry. I am on H1B and she is on H4. Our visas expire on 06/17/2019 but when we pulled our I-94s from CBP website last week, it showed a date of 07/27/2019 which is approximately 40 days after our visas expire.

    As far as I know, this should not cause any problem since the I-94 duration is longer than visas and we will be filing for H1B and H4 extension anyways before the visas expire but I just wanted to know if I need to do anything at this point.

    Thanks.

    Please remove the question or move it to appropriate forum once it is answered.

  13. #2563
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    Jonty, you dont need to do anything, it used to happen previously too (long back) when few folks had one year visa left but they used to get 3 year I-94 at times. Nothing to worry, you are good, just file your extension on time as you suggested.


    Quote Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes View Post
    Guys, I have a question unrelated to Green Card. Just posting it here to get a quick reply.

    Recently, me and my wife returned from India trip 3 weeks back. We had no issues with re-entry. I am on H1B and she is on H4. Our visas expire on 06/17/2019 but when we pulled our I-94s from CBP website last week, it showed a date of 07/27/2019 which is approximately 40 days after our visas expire.

    As far as I know, this should not cause any problem since the I-94 duration is longer than visas and we will be filing for H1B and H4 extension anyways before the visas expire but I just wanted to know if I need to do anything at this point.

    Thanks.

    Please remove the question or move it to appropriate forum once it is answered.

  14. #2564
    Its not an issue Jonty. File your extension in time and you will be all good.

    I once entered on AP which was expiring in a few months. I still got an I-94 that was valid for an year from entry - so several months beyond the AP expiration date. It was a non-issue.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes View Post
    Guys, I have a question unrelated to Green Card. Just posting it here to get a quick reply.

    Recently, me and my wife returned from India trip 3 weeks back. We had no issues with re-entry. I am on H1B and she is on H4. Our visas expire on 06/17/2019 but when we pulled our I-94s from CBP website last week, it showed a date of 07/27/2019 which is approximately 40 days after our visas expire.

    As far as I know, this should not cause any problem since the I-94 duration is longer than visas and we will be filing for H1B and H4 extension anyways before the visas expire but I just wanted to know if I need to do anything at this point.

    Thanks.

    Please remove the question or move it to appropriate forum once it is answered.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  15. #2565
    If we see ROW approvals drying up and ROW inventory increasing then we can say something about it. I don't think either of these has happened yet. It would be great if your scenario plays out - but there is no evidence yet of this happening.

    Quote Originally Posted by knighthood83 View Post
    I thinks folks are grossly underestimating the impact of AOS interviews will have on the spill over. There are 120k Green cards given every year. If USCIS does not scale quickly I think it would be impossible to complete these interviews within the same fiscal year. According to DOS anyone who is filing 485 after March 2017 will need an interview , which means everyone who is filing new.

    I see EB1, EB3 and EB2 ROW are going to see a huge amount of slow down and EB2I will be a big beneficiary of it since all the existing demand in EB2I is from 2010 who dont need interviews.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  16. #2566
    Where are you getting the ROW approvals from? Are you looking at pending inventory?

  17. #2567
    Looking at the table above (I also looked at all the available data for last 6-8 months, and the number of EB1 India visa is under 50 every month), EB1 India would consume at most 1000 per year (which is well within its own quota of 2700/year). I do see higher number for EB1 China though.
    Even if we are talking about 1000 EB1 overall every month, that is 12000/yr - which should still result into good spill over for EB2 India. Am I missing anything here or the numbers here do not add up.
    I do remember reading articles (on other forums) claiming EB1 India consumption is beyond 30k/year in the recent past. But the numbers from above mentioned official link does not support that claim.

  18. #2568
    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    If we see ROW approvals drying up and ROW inventory increasing then we can say something about it. I don't think either of these has happened yet. It would be great if your scenario plays out - but there is no evidence yet of this happening.
    Lets discount for a moment what the lawyers are saying and instead do the math. So each year EB category gets 120k Green cards. So 2018 got the same. Due to this new interview rule, EB1, EB2 ROW will be given away after an interview cause they are always current and anyone filing now will need an interview.

    So lets divide 120 by 2 considering dependents. That is 60k primary. So USCIS will have to complete 60k interviews in 12 months do allocate these. That is like 5k interviews a month and 167 interviews/day including weekends.

    That is ridiculously high number of interviews to complete. Also USCIS stated that everyone filing 485 after March 2017 will need an interview , all the EB2 india demand is till 2010 May or something like that. So those folks dont need interviews.

    As a result the spill over and across will go directly to EB2 india since its path of least resistance. Also I see ppl comment here talking about filing dates. But why would they use filing dates?

    They will have enough spill over to directly move Final action dates atelast till May 2010. Cause everyone filing after May2010 will need an interview.

    So ppl in EB1 and EB2 ROW and EB3 will get screwed. EB3 cause they are close to clearing India backlog and new filers in 2007 will need an interview.

    Folks in EB2 India till April/May will benifit. Again dont go based on what lawyer is saying. Do the math. 5k interviews a month is an impossible number to achieve

  19. #2569
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    "02/26/2018: The Supreme Court of United States Refused Trump's Request to Review Lower's Courts Preliminary Injunctions Against Trump's March 5, 2018 Rescission of DREAMER Program!"

    From the Federal District Courts rulings stating that the current administration does not have right or discretion in rescinding the program, can this be true from legal stand point because they did not have a similar thought when the DACA executive order was passed by the previous administration. I reason I am asking is that can be the same standing for H4 EAD too... in case the current administration things of rescinding the program and someone files a legal case against that move.

    Someone with legal thoughts can pitch in... especially Kanmani who was always exceptional with the laws and rules going by the book.

  20. #2570
    Quote Originally Posted by jkseth View Post
    Looking at the table above (I also looked at all the available data for last 6-8 months, and the number of EB1 India visa is under 50 every month), EB1 India would consume at most 1000 per year (which is well within its own quota of 2700/year). I do see higher number for EB1 China though.
    Even if we are talking about 1000 EB1 overall every month, that is 12000/yr - which should still result into good spill over for EB2 India. Am I missing anything here or the numbers here do not add up.
    I do remember reading articles (on other forums) claiming EB1 India consumption is beyond 30k/year in the recent past. But the numbers from above mentioned official link does not support that claim.
    DoS data is never complete nor is qualified with good information on what it includes and excludes. The table above most likely only includes visas issued at consulates abroad. In other words ... this doesn't seem to include 485s.
    This post is not legal advice nor is a sale of any product or service. Speak with your lawyer for legal advice.
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  21. #2571
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    Quote Originally Posted by knighthood83 View Post
    Lets discount for a moment what the lawyers are saying and instead do the math. So each year EB category gets 120k Green cards. So 2018 got the same. Due to this new interview rule, EB1, EB2 ROW will be given away after an interview cause they are always current and anyone filing now will need an interview.

    So lets divide 120 by 2 considering dependents. That is 60k primary. So USCIS will have to complete 60k interviews in 12 months do allocate these. That is like 5k interviews a month and 167 interviews/day including weekends.

    That is ridiculously high number of interviews to complete. Also USCIS stated that everyone filing 485 after March 2017 will need an interview , all the EB2 india demand is till 2010 May or something like that. So those folks dont need interviews.

    As a result the spill over and across will go directly to EB2 india since its path of least resistance. Also I see ppl comment here talking about filing dates. But why would they use filing dates?

    They will have enough spill over to directly move Final action dates atelast till May 2010. Cause everyone filing after May2010 will need an interview.

    So ppl in EB1 and EB2 ROW and EB3 will get screwed. EB3 cause they are close to clearing India backlog and new filers in 2007 will need an interview.

    Folks in EB2 India till April/May will benifit. Again dont go based on what lawyer is saying. Do the math. 5k interviews a month is an impossible number to achieve
    knighthood83,

    Nobody knows the impact of AOS interviews on processing times, even CO himself. I think we need to see how the approval numbers change as the FY progresses.

    I'm not sure I am quite as bullish about the situation as you, although it clearly is going to lengthen processing times. Here's some factors why.

    1) It seems USCIS are at least trying to process cases. Looking at Local Office timings, I've noticed naturalization interview times have doubled from 5 months to 10 months.
    I'm sure much of the reason is to accommodate AOS interviews. Over 750,000 people naturalized in FY2016, each needing an interview.

    It does appear that the interview requirement is adding at least an additional 3 months to the process.

    2) A large number of cases in the existing backlog predate the March 2017 cutoff date.

    EB1, in particular, already had an extremely large backlog of cases, many of which probably predate the March 2017 cutoff date. For this reason, I don't expect EB1 to provide any SO in FY2018.

    3) EB2-ROW were retrogressed for the last 2 months of FY2017. In FY2018, they will have a full 12 months of approvals, so a lower rate can still achive quite high numbers.
    With the current approval rate, they are on track to use all spare visas available in EB2. Clearly that can change during the remainder of the FY as the % of cases requiring an interview increases.
    So far (for Trackitt approvals) 70% of EB2-ROW cases predate the cutoff date. More recently, it is around 60%.

    4) Filing Dates have been accepted for CP cases. These aren't affected by the new interview requirement. There already seems to be some evidence that more CP cases may be approved in FY2018.

    EB1 in FY2017 totalled 2,529 CP cases approved for the full FY. (China - 673)
    EB1 in 4 months of FY2018 totals 2,108 CP cases approved (big increase) (China - 1,124)

    EB2 in FY2017 totalled 3,223 CP cases approved for the full FY.
    EB2 in 4 months of FY2018 totals 1,168 CP cases approved (about the same)

    EB3 in FY2017 totalled 7,893 CP cases approved for the full FY.
    EB3 in 4 months of FY2018 totals 3,390 CP cases approved (a fairly large increase)

    5) THe largest user of EB3 visas is Philippines. The current FAD is retrogressed by more than a year and CO can advance it if necessary. The majority of EB3-P are CP cases.

    Not directly related, but I think it is now too late for CO to advance EB3-I beyond July 2007 and expect cases to be approved in FY2018.
    Even doing so in April would only allow 6 months for approval. All the new cases will need to undergo interview. That alone will likely take at least 3 months.
    Realistically, USCIS is not going to adjudicate those cases in 3 months before sending the cases to NVC to organize the interview.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  22. #2572
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    Quote Originally Posted by jkseth View Post
    Looking at the table above (I also looked at all the available data for last 6-8 months, and the number of EB1 India visa is under 50 every month), EB1 India would consume at most 1000 per year (which is well within its own quota of 2700/year). I do see higher number for EB1 China though.
    Even if we are talking about 1000 EB1 overall every month, that is 12000/yr - which should still result into good spill over for EB2 India. Am I missing anything here or the numbers here do not add up.
    I do remember reading articles (on other forums) claiming EB1 India consumption is beyond 30k/year in the recent past. But the numbers from above mentioned official link does not support that claim.
    jkseth,

    The figures in the table refer only to Consular Processed approvals.

    For EB1 India, that is about 1% of total approvals (CP & AOS).

    CO commented a few weeks ago that EB1-India had already used 7,000 EB1 visa in FY2018.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  23. #2573
    Quote Originally Posted by hope21 View Post
    Jonty, you dont need to do anything, it used to happen previously too (long back) when few folks had one year visa left but they used to get 3 year I-94 at times. Nothing to worry, you are good, just file your extension on time as you suggested.
    Thanks a lot for your reply.

  24. #2574
    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    Its not an issue Jonty. File your extension in time and you will be all good.

    I once entered on AP which was expiring in a few months. I still got an I-94 that was valid for an year from entry - so several months beyond the AP expiration date. It was a non-issue.
    Thanks a lot for your reply.

  25. #2575
    Everyone, I have a quick question about EAD/AP combo card renewal. Please move this to appropriate thread once answered.

    Can we apply for EAD/AP combo renewal 180 days before expiry now? I know it used to be 120 days but just came across this article which suggests 180 days. Can anyone please confirm?
    https://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2017...l-application/

    Thanks.

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