EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[imdeng]

One: it is usually not a good idea to delay career advancement or let go of opportunities because of GC process. Two: it is likely that you will be greened in late summer 2009. It is NOT a certainty. Whether the probability is > 90%: well, there are worst case scenarios moving around, there are always folks whose PD is current but they do not get greened, there are possibilities of RFEs for myriad of things. All in all, I would say that there surely is at least 10% chance that you (and I in fact) will not get GC in FY2015.

I apologize in advance if the answer for this question has been implied or directly answered already but my PD is sept 1st week 2009. if we consider the worst case, do I need to wait until 2016 for a green card or will I get it sometime during 2015? I want to be out of this company asap and would like to take a chance and move on with another job while on EAD (even though its risky considering my job profile) even if there is 10% chance that I wont get greened this year.

[bluelabel]

Apologies for asking this question in wrong forum, Please move it to appropriate place after it's answered.

I have been working for the same employer that sponsored my green card(AOS pending with PD 03/02/2010), recently i found that our office lease is expiring and management is planning to move our office to a different place. New place would be about 4-5 miles from current office but in a different county , different city, different ZIP code and same state.

Is my labor certification and I140 are still good with new office address? Is there anything that i got to do in this situation like AC21?

[surya1975]

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...uary-2015.html

Employment- Based	WW	CHINA	INDIA	MEXICO	PHILIPPINES
1st	C	C	C	C	C
2nd	C	15-Mar-10	1-Sep-05	C	C
3rd	1-Jan-14	1-Sep-11	22-Dec-03	1-Jan-14	1-Jan-14
Other Workers	1-Jan-14	15-Aug-05	22-Dec-03	1-Jan-14	1-Jan-14
4th	C	C	C	C	C
Certain Religious Workers	C	C	C	C	C
5th	C	C	C	C	C

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current
China: Three to six weeks
India: Four to six months

Employment Third:

Worldwide: Rapid forward movement for at least another month or two. The rapid movement in recent months should generate a significant amount of demand for numbers. Once such demand materializes at the anticipated rate it will have a direct impact on this cut-off date.

China: Rapid forward movement. Such movement is likely to result
in a dramatic increase in demand which could require
"corrective" action within the next six months.
India: Up to two weeks
Mexico: Will remain at the worldwide date
Philippines: Will remain at the worldwide date. Increased demand may
require "corrective" action at some point later in the
fiscal year.

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current - for most countries. The expected increase in
China-mainland born demand would require the
establishment of a cut-off date for such applicants
no later than the summer months.

The category will remain "Current" for all other countries
for the foreseeable future.

[CleanSock]

What is this four to six months movement predicted for EB2I all about? Does that mean by the end of FY15?

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...uary-2015.html

Employment- Based	WW	CHINA	INDIA	MEXICO	PHILIPPINES
1st	C	C	C	C	C
2nd	C	15-Mar-10	1-Sep-05	C	C
3rd	1-Jan-14	1-Sep-11	22-Dec-03	1-Jan-14	1-Jan-14
Other Workers	1-Jan-14	15-Aug-05	22-Dec-03	1-Jan-14	1-Jan-14
4th	C	C	C	C	C
Certain Religious Workers	C	C	C	C	C
5th	C	C	C	C	C

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current
China: Three to six weeks
India: Four to six months

Employment Third:

Worldwide: Rapid forward movement for at least another month or two. The rapid movement in recent months should generate a significant amount of demand for numbers. Once such demand materializes at the anticipated rate it will have a direct impact on this cut-off date.

China: Rapid forward movement. Such movement is likely to result
in a dramatic increase in demand which could require
"corrective" action within the next six months.
India: Up to two weeks
Mexico: Will remain at the worldwide date
Philippines: Will remain at the worldwide date. Increased demand may
require "corrective" action at some point later in the
fiscal year.

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current - for most countries. The expected increase in
China-mainland born demand would require the
establishment of a cut-off date for such applicants
no later than the summer months.

The category will remain "Current" for all other countries
for the foreseeable future.

[vishnu]

Very clearly says that this is monthly movement, and only until May...

This estimate is unlikely to include spillover related movement, during Q4

[skpanda]

What is this four to six months movement predicted for EB2I all about? Does that mean by the end of FY15?

From the bulletin

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

[vizcard]

Apologies for asking this question in wrong forum, Please move it to appropriate place after it's answered.

I have been working for the same employer that sponsored my green card(AOS pending with PD 03/02/2010), recently i found that our office lease is expiring and management is planning to move our office to a different place. New place would be about 4-5 miles from current office but in a different county , different city, different ZIP code and same state.

Is my labor certification and I140 are still good with new office address? Is there anything that i got to do in this situation like AC21?

I'm pretty sure it won't have an impact. If you can change jobs to a different company, staying in the same company a few miles away shouldn't matter.

Perhaps Kanmani or Spec can weigh in.

[transformer123]

AILA has reported after talk with Mr. Oppenheim of the State Department that unlike previous years, EB-2 India visa numbers may move up from four to six months or even faster, but may not go beyond summer of 2009. Apparently, this is determined by the two factors. One is active implementation of Obama's immigration actions beginning May 2015 affected visa demand changes and the other is inscreasing rate of convering from EB-3 to EB-2 by Indians. Frustrating news in a way for the late starter Indian EB-2 professionals.
Obviously, passage of H.R. 213 of 2015 sponsored by Rep. Jason Chavetz removing per country limit for employment-based immigration will change this prediction, but fate of this bill is questionable at the best.

http://immigration-law.com/

[vishnu]

sounds rather silly, when just a week ago they reported that the actions will have no impact on the visa bulletin

no reason for obama's actions to have any impact on EB visa demand

porting very well could be an issue of course

[jdoe99]

AILA has reported after talk with Mr. Oppenheim of the State Department that unlike previous years, EB-2 India visa numbers may move up from four to six months or even faster, but may not go beyond summer of 2009. Apparently, this is determined by the two factors. One is active implementation of Obama's immigration actions beginning May 2015 affected visa demand changes and the other is inscreasing rate of convering from EB-3 to EB-2 by Indians. Frustrating news in a way for the late starter Indian EB-2 professionals.
Obviously, passage of H.R. 213 of 2015 sponsored by Rep. Jason Chavetz removing per country limit for employment-based immigration will change this prediction, but fate of this bill is questionable at the best.

http://immigration-law.com/

Does this also mean that since they will be doing movements in a methodical way, dates wont go back to stone ages once the FY gets done?

[Spectator]

AILA has reported after talk with Mr. Oppenheim of the State Department that unlike previous years, EB-2 India visa numbers may move up from four to six months or even faster, but may not go beyond summer of 2009. Apparently, this is determined by the two factors. One is active implementation of Obama's immigration actions beginning May 2015 affected visa demand changes and the other is inscreasing rate of convering from EB-3 to EB-2 by Indians. Frustrating news in a way for the late starter Indian EB-2 professionals.
Obviously, passage of H.R. 213 of 2015 sponsored by Rep. Jason Chavetz removing per country limit for employment-based immigration will change this prediction, but fate of this bill is questionable at the best.

http://immigration-law.com/

Ron Gotcher has posted the text of the AILA release.

AILA posted this update from their conference with Charlie Oppenheim this month, regarding India EB2 movement:

"EB-2 India. EB-2 India is expected to advance at a minimum, 4 to 6 months in the coming months and more significant advances should be expected through May. During FY 2013, EB-2 India advanced to June 2008, and then retrogressed almost four years during the first quarter of FY 2014. EB-2 India did not advance again until the summer months, eventually reaching May 2009 in September before retrogressing again in November. Although the decision has been made to start advancing the cut-off date at this time, it is possible EB-2 India may only advance into the summer of 2009 by September. Charlie anticipates that as a result of greater/earlier demand for EB-2 numbers due to EB-3 India applicants "upgrading," there will be less "end of year" movement than in past years."​

There is no mention of the implementation of Obama's immigration actions at all. Oh seems to have made that up.

[sportsfan33]

A 4 to 6 month periodic movement is poison pill for original EB2I filers. I don't get why the DOS is suddenly doing it this way. This guarantees that the dates will not see much advance beyond May 2009 at all, since porting will consume a majority of spillover throughout the year as the date keeps advancing.

[qesehmk]

A 4 to 6 month periodic movement is poison pill for original EB2I filers. I don't get why the DOS is suddenly doing it this way. This guarantees that the dates will not see much advance beyond May 2009 at all, since porting will consume a majority of spillover throughout the year as the date keeps advancing.

4-6 months movement means Originally DOS overshot when they retrogressed. So this is nothing but a correction.

[imdeng]

The worst case scenario of PD not moving more than just a few months seems to be in play. All releases hint at PD not passing the summer of 2009.

Man this sucks! I need ~3.5 months movement; and even that is not a sure shot this year.

[nathang]

The worst case scenario of PD not moving more than just a few months seems to be in play. All releases hint at PD not passing the summer of 2009.

Man this sucks! I need ~3.5 months movement; and even that is not a sure shot this year.

Based on Ron's posting, the dates may move into summer of 2009. Summer starts on 21 June and ends late September. So shouldn't you be current then?

Or does the post mean that dates will not go beyond 21 June?

[helooo]

Hi Gurus,
When will the new inventory release?
thanks

[gcpursuit]

Spec,Q and other gurus,

Forgive me for my ignorance. I was looking at trackitt I-140 data for EB1C from October 2014 to Jan 2015 based on USCIS received date and found that to be very less (1/4th) when compared to the data from October 2013 to Jan 2014.

Is that because people update trackitt very late and may show up in coming months or has the Eb1C filings reduced?

[mechanical13]

Spec,Q and other gurus,

Forgive me for my ignorance. I was looking at trackitt I-140 data for EB1C from October 2014 to Jan 2015 based on USCIS received date and found that to be very less (1/4th) when compared to the data from October 2013 to Jan 2014.

Is that because people update trackitt very late and may show up in coming months or has the Eb1C filings reduced?

I think a more likely explanation is that USCIS is approving E1C so fast and efficiently that the applicants simply never reach a state of mind where they need to register on trackitt. From all indications, EB1C is at an all time high, and EB2 is the new EB3.

It is pretty depressing, but you could be a physician, you may be a NSF fellow with publications in Nature and Science or you may win the Nobel prize...but USCIS will still give you an RFE and you'll be crapping in your pants, expecting to get a 485 denial.

If you are EB1C, however, USCIS is processing applications on a priority basis. It doesn't matter if you're submitting proposals to outsource 100,000 jobs to Asia. You'll get your GC in 6 months or less from the day you get off the boat.

The basis for US skilled immigration has reached a new low in this country, and the definition of extraordinary ability is being massively abused - and there is no reform in sight. Sigh.

[skpanda]

Any body know why DOS stopped publishing the demand data? I do not see it since several months. Is there a way to get the latest information?

Thanks!

[gten20]

Hi Gurus,
When will the new inventory release?
thanks

Gurus.. when will the Jan inventory be released?

[tenyearsgone]

EAD/AP renewal and India travel
-------------------------------------


My spouse's EAD/AP renewal is pending. We are planning on traveling to India and the planned return date is 3-4 days before expiry of current AP. Is there anything to be concerned about during re-entry given the proximity of the AP expiry date?


We are also planning on getting our H1B stamped during our visit since we don't want to deal with the stress of the 120-day EAD deadlines next time around. I am curious to know what happens in a 221G situation. Do they retain our passport or give it back? Can we return to the US using AP for re-entry and effectively refuse further H1B processing?

Gurus, please move to a separate thread after a response. Thanks in advance.

[jimmys]

Hi,
I'm hearing that there are about 4K FB spillover to be applied to EB in FY 15. How that's split between categories? Just EB2I and EB3I(Most retrogressed countries' categories) will get 2K each provided all other categories (EB1, EB4 and EB5) take care of themselves?

[Spectator]

Hi,
I'm hearing that there are about 4K FB spillover to be applied to EB in FY 15. How that's split between categories? Just EB2I and EB3I(Most retrogressed countries' categories) will get 2K each provided all other categories (EB1, EB4 and EB5) take care of themselves?

The extra visas are allocated exactly as the original 140,000 would be:

EB1 - 28.6%
EB2 - 28.6%
EB3 - 28.6%
EB4 - 7.1%
EB5 - 7.1%

28.6% of 140,000 (40,040) increases to 28.6% of 144,000 (41,184) based on an extra 4,000 visas from FB.
7.1% of 140,000 (9,940) increases to 7.1% of 144,000 (10,224) based on an extra 4,000 visas from FB.

The 7% limit rises proportionately. Overall it would become 25,900 (from 25,620) across the total for FB and EB. If you prefer, the 7% limit for India in EB2/EB3 would increase from 2,803 to 2,883 in each Category.

See this DOS publication.

[jimmys]

The extra visas are allocated exactly as the original 140,000 would be:

EB1 - 28.6%
EB2 - 28.6%
EB3 - 28.6%
EB4 - 7.1%
EB5 - 7.1%

28.6% of 140,000 (40,040) increases to 28.6% of 144,000 (42,184) based on an extra 4,000 visas from FB.
7.1% of 140,000 (9,940) increases to 7.1% of 144,000 (10,224) based on an extra 4,000 visas from FB.

The 7% limit rises proportionately. Overall it would become 25,900 (from 25,620) across the total for FB and EB. If you prefer, the 7% limit for India in EB2/EB3 would increase from 2,803 to 2,883 in each Category.

See this DOS publication.

I think you meant 41,184. But I got the message. Thanks for the explanation Spec.

[krishn]

looks like last year around march uscis started issuing mass-rfe's for EB3I and EB2I. Will they start around that time to have the medicals etc done and completed valid medical reports be on file by july ? did they give like 60 days time to respond to rfe ?

Generally for the Medicals and EVL how much time does usics give to respond back ?