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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #5026
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    is there anyone still waiting for GC , who filed in Oct/Nov 2020 , Straight filers with MSC* series ?


    I see very few people left .

  2. #5027
    Quote Originally Posted by HappyUSA View Post
    is there anyone still waiting for GC , who filed in Oct/Nov 2020 , Straight filers with MSC* series ?


    I see very few people left .
    My case is pending since 28-oct-2020 (with MSC* EB2 may-2011 pd) but moved to TSC middle of last year and since then its dead silence.
    Those guys are sleeping using our case files as their pillows I believe. Their processing times as of date shows early July-2020, so cant raise any request that would get a meaningful response.

  3. #5028
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    Why did it move to TSC ?

  4. #5029
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    Also did you raise SR ?

  5. #5030
    Quote Originally Posted by HappyUSA View Post
    Also did you raise SR ?
    Yes, I did and got the standard response saying its within their processing timeline window. Once every 10 days I check with EMMA and the response is also bland and repetitive.

  6. #5031
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    Looking for suggestions. PD April 2012. With this new USCIS interfiling guidance, Is it worth interfiling to use EB2 or stay in EB3? EB2 and EB3 with the same employer.
    Thank you

  7. #5032
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    I am in the same boat (TSC, PD May 17, 2011). No EAD/AP yet but have biometrics done. Will appreciate thoughts from the regular long-time contributors.

    The one concern I had was if the 180 day clock gets reset once you interfile? If that's the case, then staying in queue might be a big deciding factor for many. However, the way TSC is crawling through applications, 180 days might look like a short window as compared to when TSC will finally get to adjudicating I-485 applications.


    Quote Originally Posted by rajena View Post
    Looking for suggestions. PD April 2012. With this new USCIS interfiling guidance, Is it worth interfiling to use EB2 or stay in EB3? EB2 and EB3 with the same employer.
    Thank you

  8. #5033
    Hi Gurus,

    I see my 485 status changed to "New Card is being produced" where as my EAD/AP status is unchanged, does it mean that my 485 is approved? and what is the average time for the card to be mailed? also was wondering if my 485 is approved then what are the next steps i should be taking, such as updating HR and do I have to update SSN office as well,? please advice.

    Thanks in advance

  9. #5034
    Quote Originally Posted by waitingforGC1 View Post
    Hi Gurus,

    I see my 485 status changed to "New Card is being produced" where as my EAD/AP status is unchanged, does it mean that my 485 is approved? and what is the average time for the card to be mailed? also was wondering if my 485 is approved then what are the next steps i should be taking, such as updating HR and do I have to update SSN office as well,? please advice.

    Thanks in advance
    Congratulations. Your wait is over. You are a GC holder now. Card and notice is just a formality.
    You don't need EAD/AP anymore... although they too might get approved.
    Wait until you have the 485 notice to let HR know and wait for the card before you report to SSN office.

    Enjoy the freedom.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  10. #5035
    Thanks Q

    Your and other gurus suggestions are very valuable. I was wondering do I have to inform SSN office, as i am planning to go to India the moment I get the card, can I update SSN office once I come back from India or do I have to inform SSN office before I travel. Please advise.

  11. #5036
    Quote Originally Posted by waitingforGC1 View Post
    Thanks Q

    Your and other gurus suggestions are very valuable. I was wondering do I have to inform SSN office, as i am planning to go to India the moment I get the card, can I update SSN office once I come back from India or do I have to inform SSN office before I travel. Please advise.
    To my knowledge it is not critical at all. Informing SSN is only for your benefit so that they can issue you a new SSN card that has no work restrictions on it. Lets see if others may have any more insights. But if my memory is correct - it is not at all critical.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  12. #5037
    Quote Originally Posted by HappyUSA View Post
    is there anyone still waiting for GC , who filed in Oct/Nov 2020 , Straight filers with MSC* series ?

    I see very few people left .
    Don?t think there are too many MSC candidates remaining from Oct/Nov 2020. However there is no way to know that. There may be RFE cases out there and. I?m a Jan 2011 PD EB2 cases & I filed Oct 20, 2020 and got my GC Approved on Sept 22, 2021. My friend who is a Nov 2009 case is still stuck. Another victim of the Texas Service Center. he?s been current since March 2021.

  13. #5038
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    Thanks for the response !

    I am not even getting responses from Oct/Nov 2020 filers .

    I guess , I am one of the few lucky one's still waiting .Raised SR for out of processing time ,got below response

    "Due to workload factors not related to your case, USCIS anticipates a delay in completing your case. USCIS is committed to adjudicating immigration benefits in the order received and in a timely and efficient manner."

  14. #5039
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    Hello Q and all,
    This thread was a lively platform with some valuable insights on with predictions (rather calculations). How do we bring some of those conversatiins back with current situation/data?
    I understand that a lot of old timers are finally able to enjoy freedom from hqb/l1b, which is such sweet to see. For rest and new joinees, I wish that I/we can learn ways to better analyse available numbers for prediction. Some factors that we may benefit from learning...

    How do we find an idea whether FB is getting processed in full capacity or there is slowness potentially some spillover next yr?

    How do we know if rest of world consumption of EB is high or low?if India / China can expect horizontal spillover

    Trend of folks in eb3 2012-2013 who has got EAD - are the saying put in EB3 utilsing was or interfiling to be back in EB2. Whether EB2 can retrogress with this or we can hope to see forward movement.

    I am sure there are many more factors. I hope the thread gets back to it's purpose and keep the legacy of knowledge, discussion and calculations!!

  15. #5040

    Lightbulb

    Quote Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting View Post
    Hello Q and all,
    This thread was a lively platform with some valuable insights on with predictions (rather calculations). How do we bring some of those conversatiins back with current situation/data?
    I understand that a lot of old timers are finally able to enjoy freedom from hqb/l1b, which is such sweet to see. For rest and new joinees, I wish that I/we can learn ways to better analyse available numbers for prediction. Some factors that we may benefit from learning...

    How do we find an idea whether FB is getting processed in full capacity or there is slowness potentially some spillover next yr?

    How do we know if rest of world consumption of EB is high or low?if India / China can expect horizontal spillover

    Trend of folks in eb3 2012-2013 who has got EAD - are the saying put in EB3 utilsing was or interfiling to be back in EB2. Whether EB2 can retrogress with this or we can hope to see forward movement.

    I am sure there are many more factors. I hope the thread gets back to it's purpose and keep the legacy of knowledge, discussion and calculations!!
    @sebiswaiting as time goes by newer people need to take lead and contribute. I have done it for a very long time (since 2010) and can't devote time. I am long past GC as well as citizenship. Sorry - I don't mean to disappoint you or anybody. Just that it is a time consuming activity and I can only devote so much time.
    Last edited by qesehmk; 02-07-2022 at 09:22 AM.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  16. #5041
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting View Post
    Hello Q and all,
    This thread was a lively platform with some valuable insights on with predictions (rather calculations). How do we bring some of those conversatiins back with current situation/data?
    I understand that a lot of old timers are finally able to enjoy freedom from hqb/l1b, which is such sweet to see. For rest and new joinees, I wish that I/we can learn ways to better analyse available numbers for prediction. Some factors that we may benefit from learning...

    How do we find an idea whether FB is getting processed in full capacity or there is slowness potentially some spillover next yr?

    How do we know if rest of world consumption of EB is high or low?if India / China can expect horizontal spillover

    Trend of folks in eb3 2012-2013 who has got EAD - are the saying put in EB3 utilsing was or interfiling to be back in EB2. Whether EB2 can retrogress with this or we can hope to see forward movement.

    I am sure there are many more factors. I hope the thread gets back to it's purpose and keep the legacy of knowledge, discussion and calculations!!
    I can give some pointers to your first question: How do we find an idea whether FB is getting processed in full capacity or there is slowness potentially some spillover next yr?

    The montly data needed for this is published here.

    You want to look at the lines marked Issuances by FSC or Place of Birth and Visa Class.

    Here's a summary for Q1 FY2022 (October - December)

    Family - October to December (Q1)
    Row Labels ------ FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 - Grand Total

    China ----------- 177 -- 1,505 ---- 540 ---- 300 -- 1,893 ------- 4,415
    India ------------ 41 ----- 84 ----- 19 ---- 372 -- 1,055 ------- 1,571
    Mexico ---------- 395 -- 4,558 ---- 268 ---- 845 -- 1,224 ------- 7,290
    Philippines ------ 73 ---- 111 ----- 76 ----- 84 ---- 144 --------- 488
    ROW ----------- 3,974 - 12,868 -- 3,557 -- 3,326 -- 6,885 ------ 30,610

    Grand Total --- 4,660 - 19,126 -- 4,460 -- 4,927 - 11,201 ------ 44,374

    For reference, the total in FY2021 at this stage was 866.


    Family - Per Month
    Month ----------- FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 --- Total

    October ------- 1,758 -- 6,147 -- 1,618 -- 2,035 -- 4,287 -- 15,845
    November ------ 1,553 -- 6,710 -- 1,554 -- 1,551 -- 3,734 -- 15,102
    December ------ 1,349 -- 6,269 -- 1,288 -- 1,341 -- 3,180 -- 13,427

    Grand Total --- 4,660 - 19,126 -- 4,460 -- 4,927 - 11,201 -- 44,374

    For reference, the totals in FY2021 were:
    October -- 259
    November - 350
    December - 257


    Employment - October to December (Q1)
    Row Labels ------ EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 - Grand Total

    China ----------- 821 ----- 28 ---- 384 ----- 12 ----- 53 ------- 1,298
    India ------------ 51 ------ 7 ---- 418 ----- 44 ------ 5 --------- 525
    Mexico ----------- 20 ------ 9 ---- 244 ----- 13 ------ 0 --------- 286
    Philippines ------- 0 ----- 12 -- 2,730 ----- 16 ------ 0 ------- 2,758
    ROW ------------- 650 -- 1,261 -- 2,941 ---- 832 ------ 5 ------- 5,689

    Grand Total --- 1,542 -- 1,317 -- 6,717 ---- 917 ----- 63 ------ 10,556

    For reference, the total in FY2021 at this stage was 2,344.


    Employment - Per Month
    Month ----------- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 --- Total

    October --------- 224 ---- 290 -- 1,248 ---- 303 ------ 9 --- 2,074
    November -------- 430 ---- 452 -- 1,814 ---- 283 ----- 37 --- 3,016
    December -------- 888 ---- 575 -- 3,655 ---- 331 ----- 17 --- 5,466

    Grand Total --- 1,542 -- 1,317 -- 6,717 ---- 917 ----- 63 -- 10,556

    For reference, the totals in FY2021 were:
    October ---- 533
    November --- 765
    December - 1,046


    It's not something I am continuing to update. Someone else needs to take this over.
    Last edited by Spectator; 02-07-2022 at 11:25 AM.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  17. #5042
    Yoda
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    @Sebiswaiting, Number prediction in this day and age has become harder because of the pandemic and other factors like lack of transparency from USCIS. DT was the best thing to happen to USCIS where they realized for the first time that they can get away in courts with providing zero transparency. So definitely the Eb2 and Eb3 movement prediction has become harder (especially without the pending 485 inventory chart). However there is still some value to be gleaned from metrics provided of DOS.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting View Post
    How do we find an idea whether FB is getting processed in full capacity or there is slowness potentially some spillover next yr?
    We are not likely to get much spillover next year from FB. In fact I would not be surprised if we do not get any. The CP numbers for FB so far are oct 15828, Nov 15069 and Dec 13398. Total Q1 it is around 44295. On an avg DOS needs to process around 57K each quarter. They can make up the deficit in Q3 and Q4 if they wanted to and it's not a heavy lift. However we do not know how COVID will impact over the coming months, so that's that. I would urge you to take this data with a grain of salt.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting View Post
    How do we know if rest of world consumption of EB is high or low?if India / China can expect horizontal spillover
    EB-I may get horizontal spillover in EB2 and in EB3. But SO numbers in EB3 will be significantly lower. ROW may end up using > 55K of the available numbers. The CP numbers for EB are Oct - 1762, Nov - 2696 and Dec - 5122. Total numbers for Q1 = 9580. Now why do I think in EB3 we may not get good horizontal spillover? The answer is simple Philippines. I am not here to bash any country but just stating the facts. The Philippines CP numbers so far for Q1 in EB3 are (314 + 565 + 1735) = 2614. So just by the trends looks like Philippines is likely to get more than allotted 5600 visas in EB3. How can USCIS do that? Well it can and has done that in the past. They have calculated 7% for the entire EB categories and not 7% for each category. As demand for Philippines is low in EB1 and Eb2 looks like they are trying to adjust the numbers in EB3.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sebiswaiting View Post
    Trend of folks in eb3 2012-2013 who has got EAD - are the saying put in EB3 utilsing was or interfiling to be back in EB2. Whether EB2 can retrogress with this or we can hope to see forward movement.
    Though people have mixed opinions about USCIS asking people to interfile, I think this is a good proactive measure being taken by USCIS. There are less applications in EB2, USCIS has two choices either keep moving the dates in EB2 or ask folks to interfile up to EB2 so that they can slow down the movement of dates in EB2. If they keep moving dates in EB2 it is only going to create the same mess and GC wastage as last year. Why can't they approve in EB3 and do something like what they are doing for Philippines? USCIS cannot do so because it is bound by the law. Unlike Philippines, EB2-I is not current. When EB2-I is not current, USCIS cannot roll the numbers down to EB3.
    Last edited by vsivarama; 02-07-2022 at 05:35 PM.

  18. #5043
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    To my knowledge it is not critical at all. Informing SSN is only for your benefit so that they can issue you a new SSN card that has no work restrictions on it. Lets see if others may have any more insights. But if my memory is correct - it is not at all critical.
    WaitingforGC1 - here is a thread with some discussion on the steps after obtaining GC
    https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ighlight=steps

  19. #5044
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    Hi Everyone,

    I am getting a full time opportunity with the client I was working for, for the last 10 years.
    The GC came in around 5 months back and I have been with the employer for more than 5 years now. Is it ok to say that I am switching on the same role to end client as an opportunity came across!

  20. #5045
    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    Hi Everyone,

    I am getting a full time opportunity with the client I was working for, for the last 10 years.
    The GC came in around 5 months back and I have been with the employer for more than 5 years now. Is it ok to say that I am switching on the same role to end client as an opportunity came across!
    absolutely no problem. Good luck sri!
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  21. #5046
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    Thank you Q, Spec and Siva.
    Spec - those info is helpful.Let me see if I can manage time to gather.
    Q - Understandable. I just hope some of us get to know the lanes to navigate amongst available data. I do hope USCIS will be more tranaperant in near future
    Siva - thank you. These insights are helpful to keep practical expectations in mind.

  22. #5047
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    PD Feb 2017

    Hello Gurus, Please guide me on my situation. I have an approved I-140 with PD Feb 2017 with my old employer. I moved to new employer in 2019 and they didn?t start my PERM process yet due to covid. As the process is taking about 18 months to reach I-140 stage, I am really worried if my PD becomes current soon. Based on your experiences please advise me what I should be doing. Thanks so much in advance

  23. #5048
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    RFE on I-140 for experience letters

    I concurrently filed I-140 and I-1485 in January 2022 (I-140 premium processing). However, I received an RFE for experience letters for I-140. I worked for a bank in NYC for 6 years as a VP in a supervisory role. Unfortunately, the bank does not provide detailed letters of experience. I have a letter from HR which gives start date, end date and designation. However, it does not provide job duties. My manager at the bank also has refused to provide a letter of experience. As a result, I had taken a letter of experience from a peer. However, the RFE indicates that the letter from peer is inadmissible.

    Request everyone's help as to what the best course of action will be. Are there other alternatives that are available ? This is an urgent matter and can make or break my green card journey. Any help will be greatly appreciated.

  24. #5049
    Do you have your job posting when you applied which should give the job responsibilities in details?
    You letter of job offer is also likely to include similar details

  25. #5050
    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    Hi Everyone,

    I am getting a full time opportunity with the client I was working for, for the last 10 years.
    The GC came in around 5 months back and I have been with the employer for more than 5 years now. Is it ok to say that I am switching on the same role to end client as an opportunity came across!
    Sri, take the opportunity and switch. Five months or six months does not matter. If it is me, I would push the joining date by 2 weeks so that it is close to the 6 months (5.5 months rounded to 6 months). What USCIS will look for is the intent. Keep a story in the back-pocket for switching. You were working on the same job for 10 years but was not direct. Your employer wanted you to go somewhere else, however you decided to stay in the same job as the GC PERM profile. Or Layoff as a reason also works. However you have to backup (and provide evidences if requested) anything you say in N-400 interview. So if there is any chance to save some paper work, do it also. Better to be prepared for all scenarios.

    Good Luck.

    Edit: What USCIS AO will look for in N-400 interview is evidence of fraud. Did the employer terminate the relationship on account of factors totally outside of the employee's control (e.g., loss of business, bankruptcy, restructuring or acquisition, move to a new location, etc.)? Or did the employee leave the employer, and if so, why?

    To cover yourself, ask the employer to add details from PERM description as additional duties in the offer letter. And don't forget to PDF it and save it for records. Keep a story ready. You are good to go.
    Last edited by idliman; 02-10-2022 at 09:14 PM.
    LPR Since 07MAY2021

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