EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[monsieur]

I have the following questions;

1)Does preliminary review mean USCIS has all the documents? I had interfiled medicals, but USCIS is not able to confirm the receipt.
2) I have to travel out of state.Should I take an extra copy of medicals with me incase NBC issues a RFE for medicals?
3) Is it worth reaching out to a tier 2 agent to confirm if USCIS has medicals?

TIA!

AFAIK, with RFE you get 60 days to respond back. Ideally you want to reply ASAP but thats in normal scenarios. Medicals with doc signature has limited time window to be submitted to USCIS and you never know when you will get that RFE. So If I am you, I will just go enjoy my travel and not worry abt it. Some anecdotal data for reasoning - Dec slow month with holidays, Dates are in 2011, files submitted in Nov 2020. If RFE comes during your travel, you can respond in Jan. Good chance you will get your GC in this fiscal year i.e before Sep-2022.

[iamdeb]

Had a quick question regarding Indian passport renewal. I live in Washington DC region and applied for my Indian passport renewal recently.

What is the process for police verification during passport renewal in India? In my case, someone from the police in my area called my mom and asked her to send documents like Aadhar card etc via Whatsapp.
Is that the norm or is it something that is being done nowadays for police verification.

Thanks!

[Octgc7]

Had a quick question regarding Indian passport renewal. I live in Washington DC region and applied for my Indian passport renewal recently.

What is the process for police verification during passport renewal in India? In my case, someone from the police in my area called my mom and asked her to send documents like Aadhar card etc via Whatsapp.
Is that the norm or is it something that is being done nowadays for police verification.

Thanks!

I renewed my passport in Oct 2020 from US. At that time my mom got a call from the police station in my area for the verification and they asked few questions regarding me. They never asked to send anything through whatsapp. Hope this helps.

[MidWestMaverick]

Had a quick question regarding Indian passport renewal. I live in Washington DC region and applied for my Indian passport renewal recently.

What is the process for police verification during passport renewal in India? In my case, someone from the police in my area called my mom and asked her to send documents like Aadhar card etc via Whatsapp.
Is that the norm or is it something that is being done nowadays for police verification.

Thanks!

I just received my renewed passport from US embassy last week - In my case, no documents were asked by local police, just verification of particulars from my parents.

[SG2020]

I renewed my passport in Oct 2020 from US. At that time my mom got a call from the police station in my area for the verification and they asked few questions regarding me. They never asked to send anything through whatsapp. Hope this helps.

I used Tatkal for renewal this month. Something weird happened though. We had someone from the police station visit my parents' place (I had used their address in the form). They couldn't provide any documentation for me to show that I reside there. However, I had received the FedEx notification from Indian Consulate in San Francisco BEFORE the police officer visited our house. I received the new passport next morning. So I am guessing these verifications are a formality. If your family has any proof that you reside there, do share it. I'd recommend Tatkal anyways.

I would also like to point out that the forms/paperwork to apply for a passport are horrible. The group that came up with and manages them must be a 'jaahil' bunch! The instructions are very confusing. Why is there a form that requires you to notarize your 'change of appearance'...in 10 years, everyone ages and their appearance changes. So should everyone say their appearance has changed or not? Also, I can't believe that Indian government cannot spend some money with some decent 3rd party company to fix the quality of instructions. And in this day and age, it is mind boggling that our country still continues to issue passports with either first name or surname blank!

[qesehmk]

I am no fan of Indian bureacracy. They are corrupt useless and arrogant and are a relic of British legacy mixed with our BS caste hierarchy.

However once a while somebody in the bureacracy can surprise you. Almost 21 years back Pune had a new passport office and my wife needed a passport to follow me to the US. We were totally newlyweds. My wife met with the passport officer who happened to be a local Maharashtrian lady. That lady felt such a pity for my wife for being left behind by her husband, that she issued my wife a brand new passport in exactly 24 hours.

That ought to be some record in the history of passport office !! And this was all clean. No bribes. Nothing. Sheer humanity.

I used Tatkal for renewal this month. Something weird happened though. We had someone from the police station visit my parents' place (I had used their address in the form). They couldn't provide any documentation for me to show that I reside there. However, I had received the FedEx notification from Indian Consulate in San Francisco BEFORE the police officer visited our house. I received the new passport next morning. So I am guessing these verifications are a formality. If your family has any proof that you reside there, do share it. I'd recommend Tatkal anyways.

I would also like to point out that the forms/paperwork to apply for a passport are horrible. The group that came up with and manages them must be a 'jaahil' bunch! The instructions are very confusing. Why is there a form that requires you to notarize your 'change of appearance'...in 10 years, everyone ages and their appearance changes. So should everyone say their appearance has changed or not? Also, I can't believe that Indian government cannot spend some money with some decent 3rd party company to fix the quality of instructions. And in this day and age, it is mind boggling that our country still continues to issue passports with either first name or surname blank!

[gammaray]

Had a quick question regarding Indian passport renewal. I live in Washington DC region and applied for my Indian passport renewal recently.

What is the process for police verification during passport renewal in India? In my case, someone from the police in my area called my mom and asked her to send documents like Aadhar card etc via Whatsapp.
Is that the norm or is it something that is being done nowadays for police verification.

Thanks!

As folks have previously posted, it really varies and depends on your particular police station. Generally they do visit and ask for a photocopy of the ID, or you could visit the police station and provide them that info to speed up the process. A scan over whatsapp or email works as well most times-- again depends on the police station and what they "expect" (yes monetary benefits are generally implied if not directly asked for).

[gammaray]

I used Tatkal for renewal this month. Something weird happened though. We had someone from the police station visit my parents' place (I had used their address in the form). They couldn't provide any documentation for me to show that I reside there. However, I had received the FedEx notification from Indian Consulate in San Francisco BEFORE the police officer visited our house. I received the new passport next morning. So I am guessing these verifications are a formality. If your family has any proof that you reside there, do share it. I'd recommend Tatkal anyways.

I would also like to point out that the forms/paperwork to apply for a passport are horrible. The group that came up with and manages them must be a 'jaahil' bunch! The instructions are very confusing. Why is there a form that requires you to notarize your 'change of appearance'...in 10 years, everyone ages and their appearance changes. So should everyone say their appearance has changed or not? Also, I can't believe that Indian government cannot spend some money with some decent 3rd party company to fix the quality of instructions. And in this day and age, it is mind boggling that our country still continues to issue passports with either first name or surname blank!

Well the excessive paperwork and notarizing is part of the bureaucracy, no logic or obscure, obsolete logic to those things.

It's not weird, its just what the procedure is -- it's called "post verification" as opposed to "pre-verification", where the passport is issued prior to the actual verification. Not sure what the exact criteria is but I think if you have been living outside the country for a while and have had a prior renewal already then post verification is the method. Don't know what happens if the post verification doesn't meet the verification criteria--Will they cancel the issued passport? It's just obscure.

Without getting into the politics of it, all these non-sensical changes happened after the current administration took over. My prior passport renewal in 2011 was straightforward -- though I did it directly at the NY consulate and to my complete surprise ( in retrospect it shouldn't have been and should have expected it), the folks manning the que at the consulate were asking for $20 to get an earlier token number in the que.

[aGCHopefull]

AFAIK, with RFE you get 60 days to respond back. Ideally you want to reply ASAP but thats in normal scenarios. Medicals with doc signature has limited time window to be submitted to USCIS and you never know when you will get that RFE. So If I am you, I will just go enjoy my travel and not worry abt it. Some anecdotal data for reasoning - Dec slow month with holidays, Dates are in 2011, files submitted in Nov 2020. If RFE comes during your travel, you can respond in Jan. Good chance you will get your GC in this fiscal year i.e before Sep-2022.

Just fyi... I recently received medical RFE and it only provided me 30 days to respond.

[monsieur]

Just fyi... I recently received medical RFE and it only provided me 30 days to respond.

Wow this is something new; maybe USCIS trying to distribute GC asap which is big change from their approach.

[gammaray]

Wow this is something new; maybe USCIS trying to distribute GC asap which is big change from their approach.

Not very new, 30 day RFE notices were issued even in last quarter of 2021 when USCIS was rushing at the end.

[MidWestMaverick]

Parting gift from CO "The processing of so many green cards could result in fewer unused immigrant visa numbers falling into the oversubscribed employment-based categories. This, along with the possibility of large numbers of EB3-to-EB2 "upgrade" filings by Indian nationals eventually could result in retrogression for EB2 India".

Source https://www.murthy.com/2021/12/02/de...etin-check-in/

Although retrogression in EB2 has to be expected with such wild DOF movement, I had hoped USCIS/DOS would have learned a few lessons in last 24 months..

[qesehmk]

Parting gift from CO "The processing of so many green cards could result in fewer unused immigrant visa numbers falling into the oversubscribed employment-based categories. This, along with the possibility of large numbers of EB3-to-EB2 "upgrade" filings by Indian nationals eventually could result in retrogression for EB2 India".

Source https://www.murthy.com/2021/12/02/de...etin-check-in/

Although retrogression in EB2 has to be expected with such wild DOF movement, I had hoped USCIS/DOS would have learned a few lessons in last 24 months..

The same article says CO moved EB2 dates forward to see how many upgrades EB2 receives. Well that is ridiculous after moving EB3 dates into 2014/15 what kind of upgrade are they expecting?

To me it seems like CO wasn't quite truthful about or gave us partial information during his last address. Whatever - it is clear as mud how much true demand EB2 or EB3 has. WE will only know better after 2-3 months.

[MidWestMaverick]

The same article says CO moved EB2 dates forward to see how many upgrades EB2 receives. Well that is ridiculous after moving EB3 dates into 2014/15 what kind of upgrade are they expecting?

To me it seems like CO wasn't quite truthful about or gave us partial information during his last address. Whatever - it is clear as mud how much true demand EB2 or EB3 has. WE will only know better after 2-3 months.

I used to have a good opinion about CO. But looking at what has happened in the last 20 months, I believe he is also a part of the problem and none of what he says (or has said) makes sense anymore. I hope his successor makes better decisions.

[qesehmk]

I used to have a good opinion about CO. But looking at what has happened in the last 20 months, I believe he is also a part of the problem and none of what he says (or has said) makes sense anymore. I hope his successor makes better decisions.

I still have positive opinion but I am trying to make sense !

[MidWestMaverick]

I still have positive opinion but I am trying to make sense !

Would really appreciate your take on it as I can't decipher it anymore. Also what did you mean by "WE will only know better after 2-3 months." - Is it the pending inventory you are referring to or some other data source?

[qesehmk]

Would really appreciate your take on it as I can't decipher it anymore. Also what did you mean by "WE will only know better after 2-3 months." - Is it the pending inventory you are referring to or some other data source?

I meant simply by observing the movement we know how solid the movement is. My initial impression is that they are seriously expecting some kind of immigration legislation to pass which will then leave them no choice but to use all visas. So they might as well build sufficient inventory. As of now while last year's movement did build good inventory - it looks like it is still not enough for the expected total number of visas to be utilized in EB category. Just my 2 cents.

[gammaray]

Parting gift from CO "The processing of so many green cards could result in fewer unused immigrant visa numbers falling into the oversubscribed employment-based categories. This, along with the possibility of large numbers of EB3-to-EB2 "upgrade" filings by Indian nationals eventually could result in retrogression for EB2 India".

Source https://www.murthy.com/2021/12/02/de...etin-check-in/

Although retrogression in EB2 has to be expected with such wild DOF movement, I had hoped USCIS/DOS would have learned a few lessons in last 24 months..

"The processing of so many green cards could result in fewer unused immigrant visa numbers falling into the oversubscribed employment-based categories." This statement makes no sense. Not having directly heard what CO said, Murthy's interpretation seems flawed. The oversubscribed categories don't get spillover due to slow processing within the employment based categories, they get the spillover if the other employment categories don't have enough demand and all demand has been met with surplus visas left in the category.

[MidWestMaverick]

I meant simply by observing the movement we know how solid the movement is. My initial impression is that they are seriously expecting some kind of immigration legislation to pass which will then leave them no choice but to use all visas. So they might as well build sufficient inventory. As of now while last year's movement did build good inventory - it looks like it is still not enough for the expected total number of visas to be utilized in EB category. Just my 2 cents.

Interesting point. Let's hope there is light at the end of the tunnel. At the very least, if we take CO at his word, USCIS processing has improved - which is a welcome change from the talks of wastage from last year.

[qesehmk]

"The processing of so many green cards could result in fewer unused immigrant visa numbers falling into the oversubscribed employment-based categories." This statement makes no sense. Not having directly heard what CO said, Murthy's interpretation seems flawed. The oversubscribed categories don't get spillover due to slow processing within the employment based categories, they get the spillover if the other employment categories don't have enough demand and all demand has been met with surplus visas left in the category.

I believe CO is talking about "Processing of so many GCs" in FB ==> which then means less spillover to EB (where necessarily the spillover generally ends up serving oversubscribed categories.

[gammaray]

I believe CO is talking about "Processing of so many GCs" in FB ==> which then means less spillover to EB (where necessarily the spillover generally ends up serving oversubscribed categories.

That would make sense but FB to EB spillover is only a very recent phenomena and oversubscribed Eb categories don't count on that to happen, and that is not how the Murthy article reads -- It reads as spill over within EB:

"The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has been processing a significant number of I-485 applications. Similarly, the DOS has been approving far more immigrant visas than anticipated. Should this trend continue, this could result in the government issuing close to the full annual limit on visa numbers in many employment-based categories.

This is good news in many respects, but there is a downside. The processing of so many green cards could result in fewer unused immigrant visa numbers falling into the oversubscribed employment-based categories."

It's likely an interpretation thing and Murthy condensing what CO said and not being very good at it.

[gsingh]

Looking for suggestion on refilling v/s interfiling -

My PD is 04/2012.Filed I-485 with a new EB3 I-140 in 10/2020. Application is with the TSC. I have a previously approved I-140 in EB2 with the same employer. My PD is current for FA in December in EB2.

I can either interfile to request USCIS to use the EB2 I-140 for the I-485 application. But with anticipation of mass interfiling , I am not sure when USCIS will be able to act on those.
Not sure if they are even going to accept the interfiling as it?s at their discretion. (Interfiled medicals 6 months back and not sure if those were attached to the I-485).
Per Reddy & Neumann, TSC is averaging 1300 I485 cases per month and it has a current backlog of 91000 I485s out of which 45000 were filed before Oct 2020.

Second option is to refile a new I-485 with EB2 I-140 in an effort to get out of TSC and hope the new application is processed by NBC/FO. I had moved out of the TSC geographical area but there is still a chance USCIS transfers the new application to TSC .
Does anyone know if there is any data available to determine whether USCIS is forwarding the refiling to the service center where the existing I-485 application is ?

I wanted to get other's opinion on both these options.
Appreciate any feedback.

[qesehmk]

FB to EB is not recent. It used to happen all the time. Just the scale has changed now a days.

CO comments below can be interpreted on the EB alone indeed - but I believe he is talking FB processing and how it would spillover to EB or not. Because under current limits EB oversubscribed categories have pretty much stopped getting any SO anyway and the timing of utilization hardly matters. So the only way they could be getting any extra visas is now FB.

That would make sense but FB to EB spillover is only a very recent phenomena and oversubscribed Eb categories don't count on that to happen, and that is not how the Murthy article reads -- It reads as spill over within EB:

"The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has been processing a significant number of I-485 applications. Similarly, the DOS has been approving far more immigrant visas than anticipated. Should this trend continue, this could result in the government issuing close to the full annual limit on visa numbers in many employment-based categories.

This is good news in many respects, but there is a downside. The processing of so many green cards could result in fewer unused immigrant visa numbers falling into the oversubscribed employment-based categories."

It's likely an interpretation thing and Murthy condensing what CO said and not being very good at it.

[KScali]

Looking for suggestion on refilling v/s interfiling -

My PD is 04/2012.Filed I-485 with a new EB3 I-140 in 10/2020. Application is with the TSC. I have a previously approved I-140 in EB2 with the same employer. My PD is current for FA in December in EB2.

I can either interfile to request USCIS to use the EB2 I-140 for the I-485 application. But with anticipation of mass interfiling , I am not sure when USCIS will be able to act on those.
Not sure if they are even going to accept the interfiling as it?s at their discretion. (Interfiled medicals 6 months back and not sure if those were attached to the I-485).
Per Reddy & Neumann, TSC is averaging 1300 I485 cases per month and it has a current backlog of 91000 I485s out of which 45000 were filed before Oct 2020.

Second option is to refile a new I-485 with EB2 I-140 in an effort to get out of TSC and hope the new application is processed by NBC/FO. I had moved out of the TSC geographical area but there is still a chance USCIS transfers the new application to TSC .
Does anyone know if there is any data available to determine whether USCIS is forwarding the refiling to the service center where the existing I-485 application is ?

I wanted to get other's opinion on both these options.
Appreciate any feedback.

In a similar situation. Another option is to wait and see how this plays out in the next 1-2 months and then decide.
Would love to hear other's thoughts .

[may2011]

Stay put in EB2 or be ready to downgrade?


PD:May 2011
RD:Nov 5 2020
ND:Feb 21, 2020
BM:September 2021
I140 Amendment approval:Aug 2021
Medicals interfiled: July last week or Aug first week.

My case was transferred from NSC to NBC on Nov 9th. I recently read this https://www.murthy.com/2021/12/02/de...etin-check-in/
where they talk about expected retrogression in EB2.

Given the uncertainty around processing , should I be ready to downgrade my petition to EB3? The article talked about no retrogression in EB3.