EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[qesehmk]

QQ to the group - Does the Meng update have to be passed before Sep 31st 2021 to be applicable for the next fiscal year or can it be retroactively applied? Basically my question boils down to when is the absolute last drop dead date by which the update needs to be passed into law to affect the 2022 spillover.

Technically a law can be applied retroactively but since people can and will always challenge it - laws are generally made to go in effect in future.

Meng's amendment I believe must be part of some budget reconciliation process rather than be a standalone thing, so those things also have their own timeline. Others on this forum are much more savvy when it comes to house and senate rules and processes. Perhaps they can comment.

[namits]

Thanks Q!! I believe it is part of H.R. 4431: Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2022 and the bill has 32% chance of being enacted.

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/117/hr4431

[Positive]

QQ to the group - Does the Meng update have to be passed before Sep 31st 2021 to be applicable for the next fiscal year or can it be retroactively applied? Basically my question boils down to when is the absolute last drop dead date by which the update needs to be passed into law to affect the 2022 spillover.

Going by Charlie's comments, I think he is holding off all spillover visa effect until dec. 2021. That is probably when it may be too late. In any case if the USCIS ends up wasting spillovers any which way, it does not matter except for opportunity for EAD/AP for more applicants if the filing dates are moved as a consequence of spillover from 2021 family category to the extent it is not neutralized by wastage of spillover this fiscal.

[vsivarama]

Going by Charlie's comments, I think he is holding off all spillover visa effect until dec. 2021. That is probably when it may be too late. In any case if the USCIS ends up wasting spillovers any which way, it does not matter except for opportunity for EAD/AP for more applicants if the filing dates are moved as a consequence of spillover from 2021 family category to the extent it is not neutralized by wastage of spillover this fiscal.

We should not be sitting down and taking it silently. I encourage people to write in and question Charlie for the next DOS update. Is he NOT moving the visa dates because of the potential legislation in the works? If yes, can he move the visa dates taking into account the Eagle Act another potential legislation, which proposes the removal of arbitrary 7% country cap. We need to corner him on this one so that we are not looking at potential retrogression in Q2 FY 2022.

[Positive]

We should not be sitting down and taking it silently. I encourage people to write in and question Charlie for the next DOS update. Is he NOT moving the visa dates because of the potential legislation in the works? If yes, can he move the visa dates taking into account the Eagle Act another potential legislation, which proposes the removal of arbitrary 7% country cap. We need to corner him on this one so that we are not looking at potential retrogression in Q2 FY 2022.

I just don't think he is answerable to us even though those chats may make it appear so. The only people who can influence his decisions are people in the Biden administartion and to some extent congress. This is where advocacy groups come in. But the one only one that exists (because they hound out any and every other attempt at building up alternative advocacy groups by any all means necessary) has already alienated Durbin and is really not interested in pursuing tangible loaw hanging fruits like usage of the pandemic visa spillover (notwithstanding their eleventh hour shouting about 100k wastage after deep slumber through the year). They care for coutry cap removal more than backlog removal...but I digress.

Coming back to Charlie, the way visas are allocated and spillover is applied in the last quarter etc. such that priority is given to ensuring that 7% visas are available to all other countries even if that means thousands of visas are wasted and projected backlog for one country grows longer than human life span is a choice. That this wasteful waiting game has to be played even though:
- all historical data indicates that there are enough visas available to never have a situation where the availabilty for ROW would fall short;
-when processing times have exceeded well above 12 months, insisting on exhausting all ROW applications before taking up the backlogged by holding off their filing dates means the system isn't really first in first out even allowing for country caps but rather first in last out for Indians and last in first out for others;
-the two date visa bulletin was ostensibly created to avoid visa wastage but is really one additional administrative tool to perpetuate and fortify the backlog.

I could go on but suffice to say none of these procedural administrative decisions are based on the immigration statute, the legislative text passed by congress, rather they are policy choices and slight of hand employed by agencies that is not answerable to its stakeholders.

[maverick2010]

I do not think it is going to be that big of a deal here. I have never heard of a case where someone could not naturalize or had the GC revoked because of job change just before or after GC. If you want to be absolutely in the clear then apply for naturalization after 5 years are complete on your GC.

Thanks for your inputs.

I read in forums that couple of cases during naturalization USCIS officer asked for proof of employment(pay stubs) for the GC sponsoring firm post approval. Not sure what made the officer to ask that question but in general it looks like majority shouldn't run into any issues during naturalization.

My employer agreed to submit I-485J now and I hope that USCIS ties it to my already approved I-485 petition. All this confusion happened because of the delay caused by my employer and the law firm to submit I-485J/ AC21 on time. I hope I get some kind of confirmation that my new I-485J is approved soon.

Thanks!

[gammaray]

Wide spread EB1 C abuse. Any real proof for it other than your friend's friends cousin's nephew's neighbor's dad's got it and you know that he is inefficient. You are also the judge with access to every single documents on the basis of which USCIS which approved the petition?

Actually it was your friend's friends cousin's nephew's neighbor's dad's and he is definitely deficient. You can probably confirm that better than me. Or you can continue to bury the head in the sand. I am not judging any petitions -- USCIS approximately approves 92% of applications across the board (H1-B's, EBs, I-485) till recently. So does that mean no abuse existed within IT firms hiring practices over the years? This includes h1bs. Could it mean the rules were loose enough for people to find a way around? Or of course it had to be racial discrimination that rules were tightened for third party and specialty occupations. If you lived in the country long enough you would know how many "desi consultancies" were around in the previous decade that applied for h1bs/EBs after a 3 month "training" irrespective of what degree a person held, while showing fake resumes to clients. Most if not all of these folks that applied in the mid-2000's are greened now. But since USCIS approved those petitions and there is no data, it must be false.
It's similar for EB1C which was current for the longest time. Then suddenly the demand increased, as the backlogs in other categories materialized. There is no denying the Trump administration throttled EB1C's, H4s', H1b's and whatever else. But that's on the administration not because apparently undoubtedly USCIS is an inherently racist organization (against one particular country or rather one specific category),

[gammaray]

And this from someone asking for proof of bias in USCIS even after people gave so many circumstantial evidences through multiple years

You don't understand the concept of evidence do you? "Multiple years?" "so many evidence?" Just making a statement is not "evidence". I would love to see the data, and the analysis behind it. The double irony is that my statement about abuse in EB is without merit without evidence, however USCIS is biased towards one country and category is just accepted fact by making statements.

[namits]

In reading through the Meng Amendment proposal - "Meng?s measures would allow unused family-based, employment-based, and diversity visas that were allocated in fiscal years 2020 and 2021 to remain available in fiscal year 2022 and beyond until they are used".

So even if the amendment is passed and applied retroactively - then the 100k or so GC's that can possibly go to waste (if not used be Sep 30th) in the EB category will be available in 2022 and if it is not passed then the spillover from FB will be available for the EB category in 2022. So is this not a win-win situation or am I missing something?

[qesehmk]

In reading through the Meng Amendment proposal - "Meng?s measures would allow unused family-based, employment-based, and diversity visas that were allocated in fiscal years 2020 and 2021 to remain available in fiscal year 2022 and beyond until they are used".

So even if the amendment is passed and applied retroactively - then the 100k or so GC's that can possibly go to waste (if not used be Sep 30th) in the EB category will be available in 2022 and if it is not passed then the spillover from FB will be available for the EB category in 2022. So is this not a win-win situation or am I missing something?

Yes in that sense eitherway it is ok for EB. But if these guys are anyway passing laws then they might as well as capture all and more visas and eliminate all backlogs and double immigration limits. But they try to do incremental changes so that the real problem never gets solved.

[gten20]

Yes in that sense eitherway it is ok for EB. But if these guys are anyway passing laws then they might as well as capture all and more visas and eliminate all backlogs and double immigration limits. But they try to do incremental changes so that the real problem never gets solved.

Doubling immigration quota or even increasing it by say 25% is almost impossible. It is unlikely to pass the house and senate.

[namits]

Yes in that sense eitherway it is ok for EB. But if these guys are anyway passing laws then they might as well as capture all and more visas and eliminate all backlogs and double immigration limits. But they try to do incremental changes so that the real problem never gets solved.

So then it either way there should be no reason to slowdown the GC processing. Full steam ahead :-)

[gsingh]

I reached out to my local congressman to expedite the I-485 hoping it might help as he is on the Subcommittee on Immigration and Citizenship.
His office is asking for a documented evidence of dire hardship this delay has caused. Any suggestions on what kind of documented evidence can I provide ?

-Thanks

[qesehmk]

I reached out to my local congressman to expedite the I-485 hoping it might help as he is on the Subcommittee on Immigration and Citizenship.
His office is asking for a documented evidence of dire hardship this delay has caused. Any suggestions on what kind of documented evidence can I provide ?

-Thanks

Just let him know how many years you have been waiting, and then switch to another congressman or senator. His office clearly isn't going to be helpful IMHO.

[abcx13]

I reached out to my local congressman to expedite the I-485 hoping it might help as he is on the Subcommittee on Immigration and Citizenship.
His office is asking for a documented evidence of dire hardship this delay has caused. Any suggestions on what kind of documented evidence can I provide ?

-Thanks

What I heard directly from a Congressional office USCIS caseworker is that USCIS almost has a blanket policy of denying these expedite requests.

[newyorker123]

Just let him know how many years you have been waiting, and then switch to another congressman or senator. His office clearly isn't going to be helpful IMHO.

My expedite request with USCIS (Customer Support Line) was denied. So was my expedite with a house representative.
I want to at some point start expedite with Senators, but am apprehensive - as I read at few places that multiple expedite requests piss off USCIS and *maybe* even end up slowing down the processing. This was also hinted at in Charlie's call - he mentioned that USCIS is getting swamped with expedite requests !

[SG2020]

I reached out to my local congressman to expedite the I-485 hoping it might help as he is on the Subcommittee on Immigration and Citizenship.
His office is asking for a documented evidence of dire hardship this delay has caused. Any suggestions on what kind of documented evidence can I provide ?

-Thanks

We had tried Sen. Feinstein's office for my wife's H4-EAD last year. Not very helpful, rude at times, and the office messed up the supporting information we had sent. USCIS rejected the request. We avoided going to anyone else. What saved us was joining the lawsuit and she got her EAD in a couple of weeks.

[qesehmk]

My expedite request with USCIS (Customer Support Line) was denied. So was my expedite with a house representative.
I want to at some point start expedite with Senators, but am apprehensive - as I read at few places that multiple expedite requests piss off USCIS and *maybe* even end up slowing down the processing. This was also hinted at in Charlie's call - he mentioned that USCIS is getting swamped with expedite requests !

I think there is no official expedite request that a congressman/senator can submit. But one can always ask for status and what is holding something back. My wife's citizenship was pending for a long time and so when she asked local congressman's office they said they will do something if the wait becomes unusual (which eventually it didn't).

So I guess the rule of thumb in asking assistance is - seek assistance when you think you are falling outside normal processing times.

Otherwise truly do not bother them. My 2 cents!

[AceMan]

I think there is no official expedite request that a congressman/senator can submit. But one can always ask for status and what is holding something back. My wife's citizenship was pending for a long time and so when she asked local congressman's office they said they will do something if the wait becomes unusual (which eventually it didn't).

So I guess the rule of thumb in asking assistance is - seek assistance when you think you are falling outside normal processing times.

Otherwise truly do not bother them. My 2 cents!

My son's EAD was not issued along with us and I opened a SR ticket last month end. I called yesterday, and I found the SR was closed on August 4th, the reason assigned to an Officer. I said it is August 26th and I still have not heard any thing about it. The agent just made a remark every body wants their files to be processed yesterday. Same thing with my RFE for 485 it is more than 100 days, same response with an officer.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I reached out to my local congressman to expedite the I-485 hoping it might help as he is on the Subcommittee on Immigration and Citizenship.
His office is asking for a documented evidence of dire hardship this delay has caused. Any suggestions on what kind of documented evidence can I provide ?

-Thanks

Unfortunately that's why expediting I-485 will not go anywhere usually because the applicant is already gainfully employed with a very high compensation compared to the median wage. I mean obviously the USCIS is supposed to provide true service in return for the thousands of dollars we fork over to them over our immigration journey, but that just gets lost or ignored.

[Noesis]

My son's EAD was not issued along with us and I opened a SR ticket last month end. I called yesterday, and I found the SR was closed on August 4th, the reason assigned to an Officer. I said it is August 26th and I still have not heard any thing about it. The agent just made a remark every body wants their files to be processed yesterday. Same thing with my RFE for 485 it is more than 100 days, same response with an officer.

I have similar experience, I am current since July 1st and the file is documentarily complete. 485 processing times are unrealistically long so could not raise an SR for it but I did raise SR for 131 and 765 since both are out of processing times, the SR was closed in August first week with no response. I chatted with Emma yesterday and the agent created another SR because the first one was closed without any response.! I was hoping that 131/765 might trigger something but it didn't seem to help. My worry is we do not know how the processing would be come new fiscal.. Fingers Crossed..

[gsingh]

Thanks everyone. Appreciate your inputs.

@Noesis , @AceMan - Same here.
Tried to expedite 765s. First for my wife with the evidence of a job loss and a new job offer and then for myself with expiring DL. Both were denied
SRs for 765 were closed with following update - Your case is currently in line for processing and adjudication. Cases are processed in the order in which they were received.

[rsnake]

In reading through the Meng Amendment proposal - "Meng?s measures would allow unused family-based, employment-based, and diversity visas that were allocated in fiscal years 2020 and 2021 to remain available in fiscal year 2022 and beyond until they are used".

So even if the amendment is passed and applied retroactively - then the 100k or so GC's that can possibly go to waste (if not used be Sep 30th) in the EB category will be available in 2022 and if it is not passed then the spillover from FB will be available for the EB category in 2022. So is this not a win-win situation or am I missing something?

The wording is not clear, it seems to say FB stays in FB and EB stays in EB for 2020 and 2021. Since the 100K EB unused were originally from FB 2020, it can be interpreted that they would go back to FB in FY2022 and not stay with EB.

The reason the wording is is not clear is that it's a copy paste from last year's covid relief bill so the FB visas weren't spilled over yet. There is a very good chance that they will change the language in consultation with USCIS and State Department before passing it, but they will probably pick the interpretation that those visas go to FB, since their motive is to erase the impact of covid.

[vsivarama]

So I guess the rule of thumb in asking assistance is - seek assistance when you think you are falling outside normal processing times.

Otherwise truly do not bother them. My 2 cents!

The only problem with this approach is i) In which universe would a 765 approval taking a year be considered normal processing time? It's 10 months now but soon it will be a year. In which universe would a 485 approval taking 60+ months be considered normal processing time? I am not talking about retrogression here as USCIS does not consider retrogression while calculating the normal processing time. Do we have documented proof of hardship, probably not. But I know many people in this forum are probably losing sleep everyday thinking about our ageing parents back in India in this pandemic. We cannot get H1B stamped if we travel to India and we are still waiting on EAD + AP after 10 months of filing. Yes, the administration cares about the humanitarian crisis abroad, but what about the humanitarian crisis in US? If you look up processing time for AP in Texas, it's 1- 5 months for Refugee or asylee applying for a refugee travel document while it's 6 Months to 8 Months for us. I am not against approving a travel document for refugees. But how many refugees who come to this country fleeing persecution are actually clamoring to travel to their country? If this is not bias against us, I do not know what is. It's either bias or the entire crew of USCIS not having a couple of brain cells to rub together. I do not know which one is worse though.. Enough with my rant, Happy weekend y'all!!

P.S. - My guess is Afghans trying to flee the country do not have a documented proof of hardship either. Or may be the Taliban is gracious enough to provide them with notarized letters threatening their well being to submit to US authorities. What do I know.

[vsivarama]

My son's EAD was not issued along with us and I opened a SR ticket last month end. I called yesterday, and I found the SR was closed on August 4th, the reason assigned to an Officer. I said it is August 26th and I still have not heard any thing about it. The agent just made a remark every body wants their files to be processed yesterday. Same thing with my RFE for 485 it is more than 100 days, same response with an officer.

Hope you get your GC soon.