EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[sling10]

Did you miss the "If you are filing" column on the website?

Chicago lockbox is only applicable if you are:

spouse, parent, unmarried son/daughter under age 21 of a U.S. citizen with either an approved Form I-130 or you are filing Form I-485 together with Form I-130;
A beneficiary of an approved Form I-130 filed by a qualifying relative;
A spouse or child of an immigrant who has applied for adjustment of status or has been granted lawful permanent residence through a family sponsored visa category that allows derivative status for spouses and children;
A K-1 fiance (and K-2 dependents) whose Form I-485 is based on an approved Form I-129F, Petition for Alien Fiance;
.............................. and so forth...

Its Texas or Phoenix lockbox for all other I-485 cases. And Nebraska Service center if concurrent I-140/I-485 with premium processing for I-140.

Thanks for pointing that out too. Just confirming, I have an approved I-140 in EB2 and live in Illinois. So, I should file at the USCIS Chicago Lockbox, correct ?

[rocketfast]

Any folks with their 485 file currently at the Boston Field Office?

There are a few in the spreadsheet for EB2 July 2021 current.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=694834614

[rsnake]

Its Texas or Phoenix lockbox for all other I-485 cases. And Nebraska Service center if concurrent I-140/I-485 with premium processing for I-140.

Thanks for pointing that out too. Just confirming, I have an approved I-140 in EB2 and live in Illinois. So, I should file at the USCIS Chicago Lockbox, correct ?

Looks like they changed it in this Jan for certain states and now there are 3 lockboxes instead of two last year, so USCIS Chicago lockbox does seem to be the right one now if you live in Illinois for filing I485 based on "A pending or approved Form I-140".

https://www.uscis.gov/forms/all-form...-adjust-status

[Djidondon]

Hello

Can anybody share some information on this, in the recent interview with Charlie he said he would not have clear visibility on EB2I to EB3I downgrades, where he will only know the count for approved I-140s among the recent downgrades from NVC, and he rely on that approval rate. Does this mean, he would not have visibility on the demand for EB3I for FY2022 as of now only 10-15% of downgrades I-140 was only approved so far ( my assumption ) and he might move the EB3I filling dates forward until Dec 2016 or beyond that with huge SO coming as most of the I-140s are still pending for downgrade applicants and they are counted under EB2I until I-140 is approved. Thank you

[beagle]

Hello

Can anybody share some information on this, in the recent interview with Charlie he said he would not have clear visibility on EB2I to EB3I downgrades, where he will only know the count for approved I-140s among the recent downgrades from NVC, and he rely on that approval rate. Does this mean, he would not have visibility on the demand for EB3I for FY2022 as of now only 10-15% of downgrades I-140 was only approved so far ( my assumption ) and he might move the EB3I filling dates forward until Dec 2016 or beyond that with huge SO coming as most of the I-140s are still pending for downgrade applicants and they are counted under EB2I until I-140 is approved. Thank you

Oct 2020:
Charlie considered the existing inventory of EB2 and EB3 and then advanced the DoF. Also he made a big assumption Visa wastage = 0% from the SpillOver (SO) when moving the DoF. But it enabled many of us to file for AOS and gain the AOS + 180 days status. Also, by advancing the DoF USCIS made $$ to fill up their coffers.

Oct 2021:
Charlie has to do the same thing and consider the existing inventory of EB2 and EB3. Because of the SO wastage in 2020, the inventory might not have decreased by that much. So 2020 filers will go for a second dipping in the next fiscal SO as well. This wastage will prevent Charlie from moving the dates aggressively like he did in 2020. So what is wastage % ? I don't know and we will know after Charlie releases the Oct 2021 visa bulletin.

We also have to factor in yet another complication - EB2 to EB3 downgrades. Charlie said that until an EB2 downgrade is approved he will treat it as an EB2 application. So by not factoring in the downgraders as EB3, Charlie will move EB3 at a rate greater than EB2 rate. This might further widen the gap between EB3 and EB2. This again will result it in more downgraders to avail the AOS + 180 status.

So in short, 2021 DoF movement will not be aggressive as last time as Charlie will have accurate wastage % of 2020 Spill Over. Then he will play dumb when it comes to calculating the 2020 EB2 -> EB3 downgrader % and will go by what is approved by then. So EB2 and EB3 DoF movement in 2021 will be -ve impacted by the wastage %. And, EB3 DoF movement will be +ve impacted by the slow processing of 2020 downgrade applications as it creates the perception that EB3 demand is low. But this is going to create so much chaos after all this SO dust settles down. So many of us will have EAD/AP and we will go back to our usual decade long wait times for the GC.

I hope and pray somehow USCIS cranks up the pace to adjudicate as many applications as possible by Oct 2021 and approve the EB2->EB3 I-140 in a timely manner. Then Charlie will have an accurate EB2 and EB3 demand enabling more realistic DoF movement in Oct 2021.

[Zenzone]

There are a few in the spreadsheet for EB2 July 2021 current.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=694834614

Thanks for sharing.

[Zenzone]

Oct 2020:
Charlie considered the existing inventory of EB2 and EB3 and then advanced the DoF. Also he made a big assumption Visa wastage = 0% from the SpillOver (SO) when moving the DoF. But it enabled many of us to file for AOS and gain the AOS + 180 days status. Also, by advancing the DoF USCIS made $$ to fill up their coffers.

Oct 2021:
Charlie has to do the same thing and consider the existing inventory of EB2 and EB3. Because of the SO wastage in 2020, the inventory might not have decreased by that much. So 2020 filers will go for a second dipping in the next fiscal SO as well. This wastage will prevent Charlie from moving the dates aggressively like he did in 2020. So what is wastage % ? I don't know and we will know after Charlie releases the Oct 2021 visa bulletin.

We also have to factor in yet another complication - EB2 to EB3 downgrades. Charlie said that until an EB2 downgrade is approved he will treat it as an EB2 application. So by not factoring in the downgraders as EB3, Charlie will move EB3 at a rate greater than EB2 rate. This might further widen the gap between EB3 and EB2. This again will result it in more downgraders to avail the AOS + 180 status.

So in short, 2021 DoF movement will not be aggressive as last time as Charlie will have accurate wastage % of 2020 Spill Over. Then he will play dumb when it comes to calculating the 2020 EB2 -> EB3 downgrader % and will go by what is approved by then. So EB2 and EB3 DoF movement in 2021 will be -ve impacted by the wastage %. And, EB3 DoF movement will be +ve impacted by the slow processing of 2020 downgrade applications as it creates the perception that EB3 demand is low. But this is going to create so much chaos after all this SO dust settles down. So many of us will have EAD/AP and we will go back to our usual decade long wait times for the GC.

I hope and pray somehow USCIS cranks up the pace to adjudicate as many applications as possible by Oct 2021 and approve the EB2->EB3 I-140 in a timely manner. Then Charlie will have an accurate EB2 and EB3 demand enabling more realistic DoF movement in Oct 2021.

Good logical explanation. Somehow, I'm seeing more approvals come through since June (based on trackitt and anecdotal evidence). While there will be wastage for sure, I positively hope the % wasted is within a reasonable range.

[Noesis]

One of my friend got the GC approved in 8 days of being current, PD is October 2012.! Some encouraging news but also a proof that the approvals are random and PD/RD/ND isn't being followed..

[Zenzone]

One of my friend got the GC approved in 8 days of being current, PD is October 2012.! Some encouraging news but also a proof that the approvals are random and PD/RD/ND isn't being followed..

There is evidence that USCIS SCs are going by the Notice Date and once the case goes to an FO its a different ball game altogether. If the FO issues RFE and you respond fast enough, those cases seem to move through faster in a FO.

[Djidondon]

Oct 2020:
Charlie considered the existing inventory of EB2 and EB3 and then advanced the DoF. Also he made a big assumption Visa wastage = 0% from the SpillOver (SO) when moving the DoF. But it enabled many of us to file for AOS and gain the AOS + 180 days status. Also, by advancing the DoF USCIS made $$ to fill up their coffers.

Oct 2021:
Charlie has to do the same thing and consider the existing inventory of EB2 and EB3. Because of the SO wastage in 2020, the inventory might not have decreased by that much. So 2020 filers will go for a second dipping in the next fiscal SO as well. This wastage will prevent Charlie from moving the dates aggressively like he did in 2020. So what is wastage % ? I don't know and we will know after Charlie releases the Oct 2021 visa bulletin.

We also have to factor in yet another complication - EB2 to EB3 downgrades. Charlie said that until an EB2 downgrade is approved he will treat it as an EB2 application. So by not factoring in the downgraders as EB3, Charlie will move EB3 at a rate greater than EB2 rate. This might further widen the gap between EB3 and EB2. This again will result it in more downgraders to avail the AOS + 180 status.

So in short, 2021 DoF movement will not be aggressive as last time as Charlie will have accurate wastage % of 2020 Spill Over. Then he will play dumb when it comes to calculating the 2020 EB2 -> EB3 downgrader % and will go by what is approved by then. So EB2 and EB3 DoF movement in 2021 will be -ve impacted by the wastage %. And, EB3 DoF movement will be +ve impacted by the slow processing of 2020 downgrade applications as it creates the perception that EB3 demand is low. But this is going to create so much chaos after all this SO dust settles down. So many of us will have EAD/AP and we will go back to our usual decade long wait times for the GC.

I hope and pray somehow USCIS cranks up the pace to adjudicate as many applications as possible by Oct 2021 and approve the EB2->EB3 I-140 in a timely manner. Then Charlie will have an accurate EB2 and EB3 demand enabling more realistic DoF movement in Oct 2021.

Very logical explanation with in depth analysis. I-140 approval is taking 12-24 months on average for downgrade applicants and USCIS is not allowing premium. I think CO might not rely on assumptions and would just go with available data on approved I-140s downgrade petitions from NVC as per law. This will move the DOF for EB3-I aggressively because the inventory he gets from NVC would only show the approved I-140s which are very low due to USCIS processing delays. By any chance can you roughly estimate the DOF for EB3I Oct 2021 VB? I have a job offer and I?m very hesitant to take it as my PD is November 2016 and I?m thinking not to miss the opportunity to file AOS if my Priority Date is present in DOF EB3I

[RVSree]

After the primary applicant PD becomes current and his/her AOS case moves to a FO, what would be the process and timelines for the cases that are documentarily qualified and doesn't require any RFEs.

[android09]

After the primary applicant PD becomes current and his/her AOS case moves to a FO, what would be the process and timelines for the cases that are documentarily qualified and doesn't require any RFEs.

That depends on how busy that particular field office is. Some element of luck involved here.

[greenjpr]

I got RFE for medical. Submitted in may 27. Still waiting for updates ( PD June 2010 Eb2I …. Got EAD in March 2021). So RFE means nothing..

Just go with the flow and ready to be patient. It will happen whenever it will happen.

[idliman]

I got RFE for medical. Submitted in may 27. Still waiting for updates ( PD June 2010 Eb2I ?. Got EAD in March 2021). So RFE means nothing..

Just go with the flow and ready to be patient. It will happen whenever it will happen.

Eventhough it is painful, all you can do now is to wait for approval. The CPO comes anywhere from 3 days to 3 months after RFE has been submitted.

[Mgajsk]

Hello sling10, welcome to the party. When you apply for I-485, you will send your application I believe to the Phoenix lockbox or the Dallas lockbox depending on where you live. In certain cases, it may be the Chicago lockbox. Im not sure on which cases. However, these lockboxes are basically front office sites perhaps manned by contractors. They receive your documents, do a preliminary scan of everything sent and send your case to a service center for processing. The 485 receipt will tell you where your case is...if its the National Benefits Center, Texas Service Center, Nebraska Service Center, California Service Center etc. When your case is ready to be adjudicated, from what we understand, the case is electronically sent to the USCIS Field Office(FO) of the state you are in. In your case, that would the Chicago Field Office (Not the lockbox). The officer in charge of your case, reviews it and makes a determination if the case is directly approvable or a further interview is needed etc. If an interview date is set, then the Service center physically mails the case file to the officer at the Field Office. Hope this is clearer.

Is there a consistent way to see if you case has been sent to a field office or planning to send to a field office? My FO processing time for EB 485 cases is 11.5 months to 33 months. Does that mean the FO will take atleast 11.5 months to process the 485 application once they receive it from NBC?

[krnashvom8]

Is there a consistent way to see if you case has been sent to a field office or planning to send to a field office? My FO processing time for EB 485 cases is 11.5 months to 33 months. Does that mean the FO will take atleast 11.5 months to process the 485 application once they receive it from NBC?

The 11 to 33 months (for your FO) is the time from the Receipt Date (RD). That's what USCIS calls as the 'normal' processing time and if that's outside of that time (meaning your RD is past 33 months) then you can raise a SR.

[dosaman]

Is there a consistent way to see if you case has been sent to a field office or planning to send to a field office? My FO processing time for EB 485 cases is 11.5 months to 33 months. Does that mean the FO will take atleast 11.5 months to process the 485 application once they receive it from NBC?

Right now the only way to find out is by chatting with a live agent through Emma chat service. They will tell you if the application has been transferred and if so the field office to where it was transferred. You can also ask them the date when was transferred.

[abcx13]

Right now the only way to find out is by chatting with a live agent through Emma chat service. They will tell you if the application has been transferred and if so the field office to where it was transferred. You can also ask them the date when was transferred.

And you will get a different answer every time you ask!

[newyorker123]

Can someone incorporate a company "and" work for it with an I485 EAD (6 months passed since I485 was applied) ? Alone, or with partners.
Anyone here aware of this scenario, or know someone who did this ?
Hearing differing opinions, hence wanted to confirm.

P.S.: I think the answer is Yes, but want to know if there can be problems getting GC.
Assume, company is legit, and has funds to pay employee prevailing wages.

[qesehmk]

Can someone incorporate a company "and" work for it with an I485 EAD (6 months passed since I485 was applied) ? Alone, or with partners.
Anyone here aware of this scenario, or know someone who did this ?
Hearing differing opinions, hence wanted to confirm.

P.S.: I think the answer is Yes, but want to know if there can be problems getting GC.
Assume, company is legit, and has funds to pay employee prevailing wages.

I am 100% sure the answer is yes regardless of when 485 is filed. If you have unrestricted EAD then you can work for anybody. Period.

[newyorker123]

I am 100% sure the answer is yes regardless of when 485 is filed. If you have unrestricted EAD then you can work for anybody. Period.

Thanks, what could be the possible implications on getting a Green card for such an entrepreneur ? Thats where things get grey I believe.

[dec2010]

Right now the only way to find out is by chatting with a live agent through Emma chat service. They will tell you if the application has been transferred and if so the field office to where it was transferred. You can also ask them the date when was transferred.

How do i get to live agent ? is there any sequence of questions?

[qesehmk]

Thanks, what could be the possible implications on getting a Green card for such an entrepreneur ? Thats where things get grey I believe.

If we call your GC as future job #1, H1 as current job #2, and any entrepreneurship as current job #3 - they all are totally independent. I can't think of a reason why your #1 should be affected by #3. #1 can only be affected on its own merits or demerits.

[dosaman]

How do i get to live agent ? is there any sequence of questions?

I typed in "Live Agent". It then gave me a list of options from which I chose "Greencard". After that I had to wait for about 20 minutes to get connected to a live agent.

[FlowerPot]

And you will get a different answer every time you ask!

Yes, thats one bizarre thing I am unable comprehend. I would think only few really looks into the case detail and shares up-to-date info thats sharable and the remaining (most) just doesnt care (as they are bombarded by so many similar chats a day) and casually looks at the case and answers.