EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[AceMan]

Hi AceMan,

I thought I?ll pick your brain on this one. My PD is Dec-13 and I did submit medicals along with AOS with downgrade. In your opinion, shall I upgrade I-140 to Premium if there?s a good chance to get greened or just wait as PD is all the way in Dec/13.

Yes you should, You would want to be DQ if by any chance dates advance to December 2013.

In 2017 July last quarter EB3 did a massive movement, USCIS sent lot of RFE's. Most of the EB3 guys had their EAD were in vacation mode, and delayed their response which resulted in USCIS not able to adjust the petitions within the same FY.

We had a 13 month movement in April 2018 for Eb3.

It is very much in the cards that EB3 can do a 25 months movement for July bulletin. So you may not want to miss the opportunity to get your GC when you had the first chance.

[gsingh]

Folks ,
My PD is April 12,2012. Filed I-140 (downgrade to EB3/I-485) in Oct 2020 and still waiting for I-140 approval. Haven't received biomatrices appointment either.
Upgraded I-140 to premium processing this week but since I-140 application was not filed with original PERM , USCIS might not accept premium. I should know that sometime next week.
However there is a good for April 2012 to be current in July or Aug.
Do you suggest getting the medicals done now or should I wait ?

Thanks

[AceMan]

I don't see how it's a 'totally bad suggestion'. I suggested the downgrade option(if it become available) because the 180 day clock for AC21 and earlier EAD/AP can turn out to be very important for some people. Being able to file in July or August instead of October is a full 90 or 60 days earlier that one would be able to switch jobs without having to refile for labor and I-140 with a new employer. PERM itself is taking close to two years. Having your priority date is meaningless and useless if you don't have an approved PERM with the new employer, and they file for a new I-140 requesting porting your old priority date instead of the new PERM priority date.

What if someone loses their job due to unforeseen circumstances? What if someone with an expired visa stamp needs or wants to travel to India in a few months and the consulates are still dealing with the backlog from the travel bans and there are no appointments? The boat was already missed once last year to get those benefits. Now, some jobs are more stable than others so it's an individual choice and how much risk tolerance one has. It may not be worth filing a downgrade in September, might as well wait for Oct so you don't have to deal with the I-140 approval delays.

Whether one files in July or Oct, it's a good idea to get all the forms, documents ready and get prepared for speedy medicals as well.

The question was specific to EB2 date.

And any person who has been on H1 for 12 years implicitly knows the risk of losing job and has been mentally prepared for that along with all the concerns you raised. So go for the ultimate prize instead of settling for piece meal when you are so close to the finish line.

[beagle]

Folks ,
My PD is April 12,2012. Filed I-140 (downgrade to EB3/I-485) in Oct 2020 and still waiting for I-140 approval. Haven't received biomatrices appointment either.
Upgraded I-140 to premium processing this week but since I-140 application was not filed with original PERM , USCIS might not accept premium. I should know that sometime next week.
However there is a good for April 2012 to be current in July or Aug.
Do you suggest getting the medicals done now or should I wait ?

Thanks

Without an approved I-140, one cannot get the GC. So you should focus on getting your I-140 PP approved. If by chance its rejected, you should PP again and try your luck. Please be patient and don't get frustrated. This whole process is outright brain dead when in this digital world USCIS exepcts the original PERM to be in the same office - just plain BS. It defies common sense. I don't know what to say about I-693. My company attorney will not allow me to send medicals without an RFE. Its a hit or miss approach to be documentarily qualified asap once your I-140 PP is processed.

You are not following the established process by proactively submitting I-693. When I submitted my RFE for medicals, it had a bar code linking to my A number. So the person who will be scanning it will not have to think. But when you send it without an RFE, I don't know whether they will make an effort to file it properly.

[sstest]

Folks ,
My PD is April 12,2012. Filed I-140 (downgrade to EB3/I-485) in Oct 2020 and still waiting for I-140 approval. Haven't received biomatrices appointment either.
Upgraded I-140 to premium processing this week but since I-140 application was not filed with original PERM , USCIS might not accept premium. I should know that sometime next week.
However there is a good for April 2012 to be current in July or Aug.
Do you suggest getting the medicals done now or should I wait ?

Thanks

+1 to what beagle said above - try PP upgrade for I-140. Another thing to try would be, as abcx13 pointed out here, you can discuss it with your attorneys and try to send medical along with PP.

You could try sending a request for premium processing on the I140 along with medicals in the hope that they process it all together and issue your GC straight away?

[gc_dedo]

If USCIS does not process the numbers by Sept 30th, 2021 those numbers are wasted. The add back to family based is based on a calculation, but for all practical purposes, it is gone. Dates will not retrogress this year per Charlie Oppenheim. They will hold since visas are available. Retrogression happens only when applications are more than the supply of visas.

Still not clear. Consider a scenario - If number of applications submitted are say 250K based on Filing Dates (which I assume are based on supply as of Oct 2020) and let's say USCIS is not able to process more than 200K by Sep 30, those additional visas will go back to FB category. If that happens, what happens to FADs which may be pretty close to FDs by end of this year. And what it means for the applicants.
Or the above scenario is not likely to occur because CO is moving FADs based on USCIS processing speed and feedback from them on regular/monthly basis.

[vsivarama]

Still not clear. Consider a scenario - If number of applications submitted are say 250K based on Filing Dates (which I assume are based on supply as of Oct 2020) and let's say USCIS is not able to process more than 200K by Sep 30, those additional visas will go back to FB category. If that happens, what happens to FADs which may be pretty close to FDs by end of this year. And what it means for the applicants.
Or the above scenario is not likely to occur because CO is moving FADs based on USCIS processing speed and feedback from them on regular/monthly basis.

Normally the dates would retrogress. But FY 2022 is not going to be a normal year with potentially 150K visas coming in from FB. So chances are high that CO will keep the FAD as is for the first 3 months and then proceed accordingly in 2022. The other two scenarios are to keep progressing the dates from October or retrogress. I believe both these scenarios are less likely to pass.

[asiingh]

Yes you should, You would want to be DQ if by any chance dates advance to December 2013.

In 2017 July last quarter EB3 did a massive movement, USCIS sent lot of RFE's. Most of the EB3 guys had their EAD were in vacation mode, and delayed their response which resulted in USCIS not able to adjust the petitions within the same FY.

We had a 13 month movement in April 2018 for Eb3.

It is very much in the cards that EB3 can do a 25 months movement for July bulletin. So you may not want to miss the opportunity to get your GC when you had the first chance.

Aceman - To understand your response better, you are saying that Eb3 dates could be Dec 2013 within July bulletin (25 months forward movement). Any logical basis for this projection ? Are you just taking cue from CO's statement that by the end of FY 2021, the final action date will be close to dates for filing.

[dharmindesai]

The situation you have described here makes me very nervous . It's not that complicated. A good employer and a good lawyer can prepare your case in a day if they want to. If the attorney is prioritizing other clients over you, then he should get fired . Will your employer allow you to hire your own lawyer paid for by you? That may help jumpstart your case.

Damn, honestly I didn't know the case can be prepared within a day. Thanks for your suggesion; I did bring up the possibility of hiring my own lawyer. Hoping to see light at the end of the tunnel soon.

[dharmindesai]

dharmindesai, I also have a PD in Nov 2010. I also changed jobs few times and now at the latest job perm was filed in July 2020. It went to audit and I am still waiting.

So even if the manager agrees it is unfortunately a long and painful process ahead of you.
Those who want you to get a GC will do it in first conversation (personal experience), others will hide behind processes and policy.

There no such thing as company policy, they make exceptions every day (personal experience).
I was not supposed to get moving expenses, I got it, I was not supposed to get GC filing before 2 years in company, I got it. I was not supposed to get promotion in first year got that too. All of these are exceptions to the policy of a large American corporation.

So if they really want to get the GC they will help. If not move to someone who will help.

I hear you; my oldest is 9 yr old and was born here; so hopefully the longest i have to wait is 12 more years

my company is not too big and in non-IT field; they are filing hardly 2-3 greencards a year and seem to be relying entirely on the attorneys to advise them; i don't know all the intricacies of this overall process but sounds like the HR knows even less; also in the 20+ year history of my local office, I will be the first gc candidate!

good luck to you with your application; hope you are able to clear the audit soon

[AceMan]

Aceman - To understand your response better, you are saying that Eb3 dates could be Dec 2013 within July bulletin (25 months forward movement). Any logical basis for this projection ? Are you just taking cue from CO's statement that by the end of FY 2021, the final action date will be close to dates for filing.

Logical basis as follows :
262,000 visas available for FY 2021. Total number of pending 485 applications at the end of first quarter of FY 21 176,000. Follow the details added to the forum by Spectator regarding monthly consular processing usage.

Even if sudden surge in the usage happens late last quarter, the expected spillover of nearly 150,000 for FY 2022 will offset it.

The biggest concern of visa wastage for FY 2021 is going to be the candidates who applied for 485 who did not submit medicals.

[knighthood83]

Logical basis as follows :
262,000 visas available for FY 2021. Total number of pending 485 applications at the end of first quarter of FY 21 176,000. Follow the details added to the forum by Spectator regarding monthly consular processing usage.

Even if sudden surge in the usage happens late last quarter, the expected spillover of nearly 150,000 for FY 2022 will offset it.

The biggest concern of visa wastage for FY 2021 is going to be the candidates who applied for 485 who did not submit medicals.

My wives passport expires in Dec 2021. We filed our 485 in Oct 2020 . Would I need to submit the renewed passport to get the GC or it wont matter?

[qesehmk]

My wives passport expires in Dec 2021. We filed our 485 in Oct 2020 . Would I need to submit the renewed passport to get the GC or it wont matter?

Probably not. The validity of an Indian passport (and many others) is usually 6 months after expiration. So hopefully your 485 will be approved sooner than that (of course assuming your FAD stays current.

On other note Guru - I am really intrigued that you wives not only share a husband but also a passport

[MKPD2015]

Logical basis as follows :
262,000 visas available for FY 2021. Total number of pending 485 applications at the end of first quarter of FY 21 176,000. Follow the details added to the forum by Spectator regarding monthly consular processing usage.

Even if sudden surge in the usage happens late last quarter, the expected spillover of nearly 150,000 for FY 2022 will offset it.

The biggest concern of visa wastage for FY 2021 is going to be the candidates who applied for 485 who did not submit medicals.

Hello Aceman,
How likely is it that they stop the spillover coming October?
There is an article published on The Hill today trying to show spillover to employment as bad and more Employment visas as what trump wanted and that they can stop the spillover from FB to EB happening.

https://thehill.com/policy/national-...vid-19-backlog

[knighthood83]

Probably not. The validity of an Indian passport (and many others) is usually 6 months after expiration. So hopefully your 485 will be approved sooner than that (of course assuming your FAD stays current.

On other note Guru - I am really intrigued that you wives not only share a husband but also a passport

LOL. Correction wife's .

[ImmiGiveMe]

"rsnake" and " AceMan".. Thank you for your inputs. I missed the first downgrade as my employer was not willing to do it. As i do not have an option of downgrade.. I will prepare everything in anticipation that i will be current in OCT VB.

[Zenzone]

Hello Aceman,
How likely is it that they stop the spillover coming October?
There is an article published on The Hill today trying to show spillover to employment as bad and more Employment visas as what trump wanted and that they can stop the spillover from FB to EB happening.

https://thehill.com/policy/national-...vid-19-backlog

Things of this nature have been rumbling since last year. Around same time last year there was a similar scare too. The real answer is who knows? But it all depends what's the legislative appetite to pass this piecemeal provision in coming months. There are also talks about wasted visa re-capture which could benefit all. I think its anybody's guess.

[AceMan]

Hello Aceman,
How likely is it that they stop the spillover coming October?
There is an article published on The Hill today trying to show spillover to employment as bad and more Employment visas as what trump wanted and that they can stop the spillover from FB to EB happening.

https://thehill.com/policy/national-...vid-19-backlog

They have presented the facts on how the FB visas are being passed to EB. The author clearly did not want to talk about EB backlog or the law which passes the unused numbers from one category to another.

[ImmiGiveMe]

Hi,

Wanted to know if anyone has been in this scenario and what they have done. Please move this query to appropriate thread if it does not belong here.

Situation:
Recently renewed my H1B and it was approved till May 2024, but on the I-797 approval my last name is spelled incorrectly.
It was a typological error by USCIS as it was correct on I-129 form.

Lawyer has raised an SR with USCIS and there is no response yet (its been a month since the SR was raised). Lawyer is saying nothing to worry as it is USICS mistake and we raised an SR
and we should be good.

Question:

If USICS does not come back in time when my date becomes current (EB2I-PD 3/19/2012) and as I have to submit my H1B's I-797 as a proof legas status, will it be a problem?

Thanks!!

[Pundit Arjun]

Hi,

Wanted to know if anyone has been in this scenario and what they have done. Please move this query to appropriate thread if it does not belong here.

Situation:
Recently renewed my H1B and it was approved till May 2024, but on the I-797 approval my last name is spelled incorrectly.
It was a typological error by USCIS as it was correct on I-129 form.

Lawyer has raised an SR with USCIS and there is no response yet (its been a month since the SR was raised). Lawyer is saying nothing to worry as it is USICS mistake and we raised an SR
and we should be good.

Question:

If USICS does not come back in time when my date becomes current (EB2I-PD 3/19/2012) and as I have to submit my H1B's I-797 as a proof legas status, will it be a problem?

Thanks!!

Wont be a problem. Request your attorney to include a letter indicating the mistake and reference the SR# in the letter.

[sling10]

Hello Gurus -

I have my birth certificate available with me, but, my mother's name listed on the certificate is the one she was given by the inlaws after marriage. That is the name she was called by the inlaws exclusively and was not used on any other documents except the birth certificate. Her name on my passport is her actual name.

Due to the above difference between her name on my birth certificate / my passport, will there be any issues ? I have read / heard that it should not be a problem, but, just want to double check with someone who may have been in a similar situation. If Yes, did you submit some additional documents along with the birth certificate to explain the different names of your mother?

Thanks.

[ImmiGiveMe]

Wont be a problem. Request your attorney to include a letter indicating the mistake and reference the SR# in the letter.

Thanks Arjun!!

[fishelusa]

Hi,

Wanted to know if anyone has been in this scenario and what they have done. Please move this query to appropriate thread if it does not belong here.

Situation:
Recently renewed my H1B and it was approved till May 2024, but on the I-797 approval my last name is spelled incorrectly.
It was a typological error by USCIS as it was correct on I-129 form.

Lawyer has raised an SR with USCIS and there is no response yet (its been a month since the SR was raised). Lawyer is saying nothing to worry as it is USICS mistake and we raised an SR
and we should be good.

Question:

If USICS does not come back in time when my date becomes current (EB2I-PD 3/19/2012) and as I have to submit my H1B's I-797 as a proof legas status, will it be a problem?

Thanks!!

Same thing happend to me also long back. Youy need to send back the original i-797 and ask for the correction. You will receive new approved i-797 corrected.

[rsnake]

Chat with Charlie happened today. And again the question of when is the visa number actually counted came up. I feel like everytime this question is answered by Charlie, he replies from the perspective of people filing from abroad with consular processing, since that's the responsibility of Department of State that he works for, plus most of family visas are issued that way.

That's why he talked about National Visa Center, and everything being ready for interview, by which he means interview at consulate. I feel like that's behind the 'documentarily qualified' terminology that he uses, but there is nothing to indicate that USCIS uses that terminology or process. We don't have a straight answer from USCIS perspective. My guess is that the visa number is used when we get the 'Card Production Ordered' update status and not before then, even if USCIS calls us for interview. Any thoughts?

[qesehmk]

Chat with Charlie happened today. And again the question of when is the visa number actually counted came up. I feel like everytime this question is answered by Charlie, he replies from the perspective of people filing from abroad with consular processing, since that's the responsibility of Department of State that he works for, plus most of family visas are issued that way.

That's why he talked about National Visa Center, and everything being ready for interview, by which he means interview at consulate. I feel like that's behind the 'documentarily qualified' terminology that he uses, but there is nothing to indicate that USCIS uses that terminology or process. We don't have a straight answer from USCIS perspective. My guess is that the visa number is used when we get the 'Card Production Ordered' update status and not before then, even if USCIS calls us for interview. Any thoughts?

That's quite right. The dynamic between DoS and USCIS has changed significantly. Pre-911 era DoS was quite an elite department while USCIS was just another department. But in 911 era USCIS (aka INA) was brought under Homeland security which also has FBI reporting into it. CIA the counterpart of FBI is rather independent and doesn't report into DoS. So the point is USCIS has kind of garnered significant political backing. Additionally USCIS does seem to have quite a few anti-immigrant folks who have done everything in their power to hold back EB-India in particular IMHO.

So the net result is - CO of course will be very hesitant to comment on anything that falls under UCSIS. We should not expect it nor we should blame him for that.