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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

  1. #3251
    Quote Originally Posted by vidya_garu View Post
    Hello idliman
    Thanks for the response. We have seen in this forum that some lawyers insist on a 1 year extension. Not to be defending my lawyer, but it appears to be a lawyer approach thing.
    My lawyer didn?t insist on applying for H4 EAD in lieu of AOS EAD. The idea is that since my Final Action date is expected to be continuously current through Oct 2022, will it make my GC process faster by not applying for AOS EAD and AP. That was the idea.
    Best regards
    USCIS has trained its adjudicators for different types of applications. From my understanding the I485 applications need some expertise and training to adjudicate. Hence, it takes more time for I485 adjudication. The I765 applications on the other hand are more straightforward to approve (all you need is I485 receipt notice for C9P). From your reply, I understand that you are shooting for adjudicating I485 which is a good thing. However, I have no opinion on whether this is going to be a faster route to GC or not. If you have some points regarding how a 1 year H1B and other strategies are going to help a faster GC adjudication, please share. There are people waiting in the backlog for a long time and would love an insight.

    I am of the opinion that one should cover their basics first. One should keep doing things like H1B renewal and EAD+AP renewals even if they *think* or *believe* that they are going to get GC in 2 months. Thankfully we are with an administration that is more reasonable to the previous one in immigration. Otherwise I would doubt that the PD movements only would have happened from June VB. Like all federal agencies USCIS takes directions from its politically appointed executives. They can change priority in the a blink of eye and start focussing on say asylum or DACA applicants instead of I-485. So, as immigrants one should do everything to make sure that they remain in status all the time. Good Luck.
    Last edited by idliman; 05-16-2021 at 12:14 PM.
    LPR Since 07MAY2021

  2. #3252
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    Hello Idliman and other seniors/experts,

    My Priority Date is EB2 Nov 2015. Like many others I am trying to see when/what are the chances for my PD to get current in the next 2 years.
    We all know we have 121k spillover for FY 21 and not all visas are going to be used before Sep 2021.
    So far, in FY 2021, for Family Category under 226k limit, they have allocated approx 2500 visas until March 2021. still ~223k to go.
    The consulates are open for Immigrant Visas now, but they are processing with limited resources and with a priority now. See below that USCIS published on Apr 30. I am sure many of you might have noticed already

    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...itization.html

    FB category falls under tier3, EB under tier4. They will process Immediate Relative visas as priority and under tier 1 as you can read above. Which means, FB usage will be very low that we may get ~150k to 160k or even more. I know CO said there will be minimum of 135k, so I am trying to say that the number will be more than 150k for FY 2022(starting from FY 2021). If any bill passes that prevents the spillover then it is totally different discussion.

    There are ~490k pending consular apps waiting for interviews. Please see the below tweet for more info.

    https://twitter.com/doug_rand/status...58207605903361

    So, as some are projecting here and in other platforms, if by Sep 2021, Covid magically disappears and everything became normal, How are they going to process all these pending applications at the consular posts worldwide? Even if they increase the resources to pre-covid level, wouldn't it take time to allocate visa interview slots and process all these according to the priority that USCIS mentioned above.

    Where I am going with all this? The FB usage/visa number allocation will still be low into the Q1 of FY2022, i.e October to December 2021 because of huge pending visa applications at consular posts and that FB category is under tier 3.
    So, I am expecting another spillover from FB to EB in Oct 2022 as well. I do not know how much it will be, but even if it is 20k, 30k or 50k additional spillover that would be good for EB2/EB3 2015 folks. Most probably EB1 still remains current by Oct 2022 unless there is a significant uptick in EB1 India apps between Oct 2021 and Oct 2022.

    Please let me know your inputs or where potentially above scenarios could fail that would impact 2015 PDs.

  3. #3253
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    Hello Idliman and other seniors/experts,

    My Priority Date is EB2 Nov 2015. Like many others I am trying to see when/what are the chances for my PD to get current in the next 2 years.
    We all know we have 121k spillover for FY 21 and not all visas are going to be used before Sep 2021.
    So far, in FY 2021, for Family Category under 226k limit, they have allocated approx 2500 visas until March 2021. still ~223k to go.
    The consulates are open for Immigrant Visas now, but they are processing with limited resources and with a priority now. See below that USCIS published on Apr 30. I am sure many of you might have noticed already

    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...itization.html

    FB category falls under tier3, EB under tier4. They will process Immediate Relative visas as priority and under tier 1 as you can read above. Which means, FB usage will be very low that we may get ~150k to 160k or even more. I know CO said there will be minimum of 135k, so I am trying to say that the number will be more than 150k for FY 2022(starting from FY 2021). If any bill passes that prevents the spillover then it is totally different discussion.

    There are ~490k pending consular apps waiting for interviews. Please see the below tweet for more info.

    https://twitter.com/doug_rand/status...58207605903361

    So, as some are projecting here and in other platforms, if by Sep 2021, Covid magically disappears and everything became normal, How are they going to process all these pending applications at the consular posts worldwide? Even if they increase the resources to pre-covid level, wouldn't it take time to allocate visa interview slots and process all these according to the priority that USCIS mentioned above.

    Where I am going with all this? The FB usage/visa number allocation will still be low into the Q1 of FY2022, i.e October to December 2021 because of huge pending visa applications at consular posts and that FB category is under tier 3.
    So, I am expecting another spillover from FB to EB in Oct 2022 as well. I do not know how much it will be, but even if it is 20k, 30k or 50k additional spillover that would be good for EB2/EB3 2015 folks. Most probably EB1 still remains current by Oct 2022 unless there is a significant uptick in EB1 India apps between Oct 2021 and Oct 2022.

    Please let me know your inputs or where potentially above scenarios could fail that would impact 2015 PDs.

  4. #3254
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    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post

    They can change priority in the a blink of eye and start focussing on say asylum or DACA applicants instead of I-485. So, as immigrants one should do everything to make sure that they remain in status all the time. Good Luck.
    Completely agree. Just focus on basics. Apply for EAD/AP. Renew H1B. Don't *assume* anything. If someone would have told me it will take 9 more years for me to get GC in hand when my PD become current back in Feb 2012 I wouldn't have believed. (I was thinking 2 more years max.). Or if someone with PD of 05/01/2010 wouldn't have believed that it will take about 9 more years for his/her FD to be current. Things can change fast here. There can be a bill to stop FB to EB spillover for certain years. And believe me Congress can act fast for anything related to the family based immigration.

    Here is paragraph from May 2012 Visa Bulletin (see the text in bold) and see how things turned out to be.


    D. RETROGRESSION OF THE CHINA-MAINLAND AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE CUT-OFF DATE

    Due to the rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, demand for China and India Employment Second preference numbers has increased dramatically during recent months, and at a much faster rate than had been expected. Therefore, it has been necessary to retrogress that cut-off date to August 15, 2007 in an attempt to hold number use within the annual limit while maintaining availability for those countries that have not yet reached their per-country limit. Notices were included in the November, January, and February Visa Bulletins alerting readers to the possibility of such a retrogression. While corrective action has become necessary earlier than was anticipated based on the information available at the time cut-off dates were determined, it is hoped that readers are not caught off guard by this retrogression.

    Should additional information regarding potential demand become available, it may be necessary to take additional corrective action at any time.

    Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010. This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which take effect October 1, 2012. It will not be possible to speculate on the cut-off date which may apply at that time until late summer.

    USCIS has indicated that it will continue accepting China and India Employment Second preference I-485 filings based on the originally announced April cut-off date.
    Please note I am posting all this not to scare any one. Neither I am saying this will happen this time around but no harm being proactively cautious IMO.
    Last edited by suninphx; 05-16-2021 at 02:22 PM.

  5. #3255
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    USCIS has trained its adjudicators for different types of applications. From my understanding the I485 applications need some expertise and training to adjudicate. Hence, it takes more time for I485 adjudication. The I765 applications on the other hand are more straightforward to approve (all you need is I485 receipt notice for C9P). From your reply, I understand that you are shooting for adjudicating I485 which is a good thing. However, I have no opinion on whether this is going to be a faster route to GC or not. If you have some points regarding how a 1 year H1B and other strategies are going to help a faster GC adjudication, please share. There are people waiting in the backlog for a long time and would love an insight.

    I am of the opinion that one should cover their basics first. One should keep doing things like H1B renewal and EAD+AP renewals even if they *think* or *believe* that they are going to get GC in 2 months. Thankfully we are with an administration that is more reasonable to the previous one in immigration. Otherwise I would doubt that the PD movements only would have happened from June VB. Like all federal agencies USCIS takes directions from its politically appointed executives. They can change priority in the a blink of eye and start focussing on say asylum or DACA applicants instead of I-485. So, as immigrants one should do everything to make sure that they remain in status all the time. Good Luck.
    Hello idliman
    Thanks for the response. I am trying to figure out an optimal strategy here. I?m infact tired of applying for H1 extensions. This one will be my 9th H1b, with multiple job changes and extensions. My recent most perm is a 3rd one , with the first one in 2008 that went to audit and rejected.
    This time I?m confident that my date is close to the 2012 filers( which went to May 2010, and I was August 2010) and hence in the GC approvable zone. It was an agonizing 9 year wait on H1b , not able to file for AOS. My dad passed away during this period and i had to go a visa stamping after funeral.
    Thanks for your insights. I?m just trying to look for freedom and move on with our lives.

  6. #3256
    Quote Originally Posted by vidya_garu View Post
    Hello idliman
    Thanks for the response. I am trying to figure out an optimal strategy here. I?m infact tired of applying for H1 extensions. This one will be my 9th H1b, with multiple job changes and extensions. My recent most perm is a 3rd one , with the first one in 2008 that went to audit and rejected.
    This time I?m confident that my date is close to the 2012 filers( which went to May 2010, and I was August 2010) and hence in the GC approvable zone. It was an agonizing 9 year wait on H1b , not able to file for AOS. My dad passed away during this period and i had to go a visa stamping after funeral.
    Thanks for your insights. I?m just trying to look for freedom and move on with our lives.
    I am sorry to hear about how COVID has affected you personally. We are all affected by COVID although the level of suffering is different. It is little scarry to openup messages with photos in groups now-a-days. I know that you are frustrated and all backlogged people go through the pain. I have blown off some steam in this forum during stressful times. The most important thing is to be educated about the process and prepare us mentally for the marathon.

    Freedom for backlogged people comes in different steps and levels:

    1. 1 year H1B Extension: File PERM 365 days before 6 year H1B (or a I-140 when PERM is not required).
    2. 3 year H1B Extension: Approved I-140.
    3. File AOS: Get EAD+AP; Unrestricted employment. Get "AOS Pending" status. You will never go OOS again even if you lose H1 or job for a "brief" period.
    4. File AOS and cross 180 days with the employer: AC21 protection. No more PERM and I-140 requirement, provided new job is "same or similar" category. You are in "Trishanku" status, neither on earth nor in heaven.
    5. Get GC: You become a Permanent Resident. But you have to stay in US at least 6 months in a year.
    6. Get Citizenship: 4 years 9 months after GC, you can apply for Citizenship.


    Each step comes with its own level of freedom. The most significant jump is Step 4, although some people make uninformed decision after step 3.

    I have told many to not think about step 5. Keep working step by step so that you keep climbing up. With Step 4, you are essentially a free agent. While you will be happy with Step 4 for a while, eventually like the 2012 filers, you will grow impatient after 9+ years.

    You are with an extermenly knowledgable set of folks in this blog that are willing to help you make good logical choices.

    As you are going to file AOS in 2 weeks, prepare for that. I would advise you to submit I-693 along with I-485 and not wait for a RFE. You will be FA current shortly. Also trying to speedup I-485 for your case competing with 300K backlogged folks is like beating the stock market. No one has figured this out, otherwise they will not be visitng this forum. Instead keep moving and a chance will openup for you eventually. Stay positive. Things will work out. Good Luck.
    LPR Since 07MAY2021

  7. #3257
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    Quote Originally Posted by vidya_garu View Post
    Hello guys
    My PD is August 13 2010 EB2 India. My recent perm got approved first week of May. I?ll be filing I140(regular , not a downgrade & hopefully premium)+ I485 concurrently in June. My H1B extension (+H4 , H4 EAD) will also be filed in June. My lawyer is suggesting 1 year H1b extension.
    I?d like to get an idea as to what?s a good strategy to follow here. Some people (not my lawyer)are suggesting not to file for I485 EAD and AP, and apply for H4 EAD instead (as biometrics have been dropped) and add medicals to I485 to speed up the GC approval. What are your takes on this approach and could we tweak some of this ? I am looking for the optimal strategy here
    I will only concentrate on H4 and H4-EAD piece as idliman and others have addressed your other queries. Looks like your friends are suggesting to go with H4-EAD as biometrics have been dropped. May be the plan is to apply H1, H4 and H4-EAD altogether and have H1 in PP and thus hoping all 3 get approved within a month or so. This process used to happen before but has not seen the light of day since the last 3-4 years. So it's a big leap of faith that you are taking, if this is the thought process. I am a bird in the hand rather than 2 in the bush kind of guy. Over the last few years AOS-EAD processing times have been significantly faster than H4-EAD. So it makes more sense to apply AOS-EAD than H4-EAD IMO.

  8. #3258
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    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    I will only concentrate on H4 and H4-EAD piece as idliman and others have addressed your other queries. Looks like your friends are suggesting to go with H4-EAD as biometrics have been dropped. May be the plan is to apply H1, H4 and H4-EAD altogether and have H1 in PP and thus hoping all 3 get approved within a month or so. This process used to happen before but has not seen the light of day since the last 3-4 years. So it's a big leap of faith that you are taking, if this is the thought process. I am a bird in the hand rather than 2 in the bush kind of guy. Over the last few years AOS-EAD processing times have been significantly faster than H4-EAD. So it makes more sense to apply AOS-EAD than H4-EAD IMO.
    Hi Sivarama, could you please take a look at my post above regarding 2015 date movement and let me know your thoughts? Thanks

  9. #3259
    I cannot think of any reasons for requesting a one-year H1B extension except the rule that if your PERM is approved(or pending for more than a year) but I-140 is not, then you can only get a one year H1B extension. But if you had an approved I-140 with a previous employer(which you must have if your PD is in 2010) then you can file for 3 years. I think your lawyer is getting confused and thinking yours is the first PERM/I-140 like his other clients. This is frequently an issue with H1B renewals after 6 years where people have to file for 1 year because I-140 is not approved.

  10. #3260
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    Quote Originally Posted by rsnake View Post
    I cannot think of any reasons for requesting a one-year H1B extension except the rule that if your PERM is approved(or pending for more than a year) but I-140 is not, then you can only get a one year H1B extension. But if you had an approved I-140 with a previous employer(which you must have if your PD is in 2010) then you can file for 3 years. I think your lawyer is getting confused and thinking yours is the first PERM/I-140 like his other clients. This is frequently an issue with H1B renewals after 6 years where people have to file for 1 year because I-140 is not approved.
    While I was on H1 as a consultant this happened to me 4 times. I always get approval for 1 year H1 B even though at times the client letter is open ender or for 3 years with approved I-140. It May be a training issue for the staff.
    TSC || PD: 15-03-2010 || RD: 05-Mar-2012 || ND: 07-Mar-2012 || FP sch/done : 16-Apr-2012 || EAD/AP: 20-Apr-2012|| GC:

  11. #3261
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    Quote Originally Posted by vidya_garu View Post
    Hello guys
    My PD is August 13 2010 EB2 India. My recent perm got approved first week of May. I?ll be filing I140(regular , not a downgrade & hopefully premium)+ I485 concurrently in June. My H1B extension (+H4 , H4 EAD) will also be filed in June. My lawyer is suggesting 1 year H1b extension.
    I?d like to get an idea as to what?s a good strategy to follow here. Some people (not my lawyer)are suggesting not to file for I485 EAD and AP, and apply for H4 EAD instead (as biometrics have been dropped) and add medicals to I485 to speed up the GC approval. What are your takes on this approach and could we tweak some of this ? I am looking for the optimal strategy here

    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    vidya_garu,
    Your EB2I PD will be FA current in June 2021 VB. Your post has so many alarms. My suspicion is that your attorney / lawyer are scamming either you or your company.

    1. H1B: I don't agree with 1 year H1B extension. You should ask for a 3 year extension. There is no extra fee that USCIS charges for a 1 year vs 3 year. Insist on a 3 year extension. H1B application is non-immigrant one. I-140 & I-485 are immigrant applications. They have different paths. You just have to make sure that your statuses are compatible. Getting a GC is not a joke. There is a process and lot of waiting time. Don't do H4 EAD. Instead do AOS EAD (see below)
    idli,

    As the facts are stated, there is no option for a 3 year H1B extension.

    A 3 year H1B extension is only available under AC21 when:

    a) The I-140 is approved

    AND

    b) The PD is not current on the date USCIS receive the H1B extension request.

    If the PD becomes current in June and the H1B extension is requested in June (as stated in the original post), then condition (b) cannot be met.

    Assuming the above, the H1B request for a 3 year extension would have to be received by USCIS in May, otherwise only a 1 year extension would be available (if those conditions have been met).
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  12. #3262
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    Quote Originally Posted by MKPD2015 View Post
    Hello Idliman and other seniors/experts,

    My Priority Date is EB2 Nov 2015. Like many others I am trying to see when/what are the chances for my PD to get current in the next 2 years.
    We all know we have 121k spillover for FY 21 and not all visas are going to be used before Sep 2021.
    So far, in FY 2021, for Family Category under 226k limit, they have allocated approx 2500 visas until March 2021. still ~223k to go.
    The consulates are open for Immigrant Visas now, but they are processing with limited resources and with a priority now. See below that USCIS published on Apr 30. I am sure many of you might have noticed already

    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...itization.html

    FB category falls under tier3, EB under tier4. They will process Immediate Relative visas as priority and under tier 1 as you can read above. Which means, FB usage will be very low that we may get ~150k to 160k or even more. I know CO said there will be minimum of 135k, so I am trying to say that the number will be more than 150k for FY 2022(starting from FY 2021). If any bill passes that prevents the spillover then it is totally different discussion.

    There are ~490k pending consular apps waiting for interviews. Please see the below tweet for more info.

    https://twitter.com/doug_rand/status...58207605903361

    So, as some are projecting here and in other platforms, if by Sep 2021, Covid magically disappears and everything became normal, How are they going to process all these pending applications at the consular posts worldwide? Even if they increase the resources to pre-covid level, wouldn't it take time to allocate visa interview slots and process all these according to the priority that USCIS mentioned above.

    Where I am going with all this? The FB usage/visa number allocation will still be low into the Q1 of FY2022, i.e October to December 2021 because of huge pending visa applications at consular posts and that FB category is under tier 3.
    So, I am expecting another spillover from FB to EB in Oct 2022 as well. I do not know how much it will be, but even if it is 20k, 30k or 50k additional spillover that would be good for EB2/EB3 2015 folks. Most probably EB1 still remains current by Oct 2022 unless there is a significant uptick in EB1 India apps between Oct 2021 and Oct 2022.

    Please let me know your inputs or where potentially above scenarios could fail that would impact 2015 PDs.
    MK, You are on the right track on your research. I don't know how much more value I can add to the discussion. One thing I would caution against is PD being current is not equal to GC in hand. You can ask idliman, vedu or many other members in this forum who had to painstakingly wait 9 years after their PD became current in 2012. I am not saying that will happen this time with unprecedented FB numbers coming into EB, but a lot depends on USCIS processing of those cases without wasting visa numbers. FY2022 will get spillover close to 150K IMO and yes the next year there will be some too. But not expecting a lot from FB but mostly horizontal spillover from EB as ROW demand decreases. Historically after a recession or a shock event the ROW numbers decline for the next 2-3 years. I am not as hopeful for FB spillover, simply because if USCIS finds a way to process 100% of spillover in EB they can very well figure out a way to achieve the same efficiency in FB like using zoom based interviews etc. So my take is to wait for i485 pending inventory to be published (hope they go back to doing it) to get better numbers. Your priority now should be to make sure you file your AOS next year. You have a good chance of that happening if you can downgrade. My assumption at this point with scant data is EB2 maybe current till 1st Jan 2015 or till Mid 2015 (factoring in some wastage). Movement of EB3 is more tricky to predict but the probability is pretty high that it may cover your PD.
    Last edited by vsivarama; 05-17-2021 at 09:40 AM.

  13. #3263
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    Quote Originally Posted by vsivarama View Post
    MK, You are on the right track on your research. I don't know how much more value I can add to the discussion. One thing I would caution against is PD being current is not equal to GC in hand. You can ask idliman, vedu or many other members in this forum who had to painstakingly wait 9 years after their PD became current in 2012. I am not saying that will happen this time with unprecedented FB numbers coming into EB, but a lot depends on USCIS processing of those cases without wasting visa numbers. FY2022 will get spillover close to 150K IMO and yes the next year there will be some too. But not expecting a lot from FB but mostly horizontal spillover from EB as ROW demand decreases. Historically after a recession or a shock event the ROW numbers decline for the next 2-3 years. I am not as hopeful for FB spillover, simply because if USCIS finds a way to process 100% of spillover in EB they can very well figure out a way to achieve the same efficiency in FB like using zoom based interviews etc. So my take is to wait for i485 pending inventory to be published (hope they go back to doing it) to get better numbers. Your priority now should be to make sure you file your AOS next year. You have a good chance of that happening if you can downgrade. My assumption at this point with scant data is EB2 maybe current till 1st Jan 2015 or till Mid 2015 (factoring in some wastage). Movement of EB3 is more tricky to predict but the probability is pretty high that it may cover your PD.
    Thank you very much for taking time and answering. Appreciate it.

  14. #3264
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    idli,

    As the facts are stated, there is no option for a 3 year H1B extension.

    A 3 year H1B extension is only available under AC21 when:

    a) The I-140 is approved

    AND

    b) The PD is not current on the date USCIS receive the H1B extension request.

    If the PD becomes current in June and the H1B extension is requested in June (as stated in the original post), then condition (b) cannot be met.

    Assuming the above, the H1B request for a 3 year extension would have to be received by USCIS in May, otherwise only a 1 year extension would be available (if those conditions have been met).
    Spec, thank you for correcting my error. The fineprint did not cross my mind till you brought to my attention. Here's what the AC21 Memo, AD 08-06 says:

    Any petitioner seeking an H-1B extension on behalf of an H-1B alien beneficiary pursuant to ?104(c) of AC21 must thus establish that at the time of filing for such extension, the alien is not eligible to be granted lawful permanent resident status on account of the per country immigrant visa limitations.
    ...
    Adjudicators are instructed to review the Department of State Immigrant Visa Bulletin that was in effect at the time of the filing of the Form I-129 petition in which a request for an ?104(c) of AC21 H-1B extension request is made. If the H-1B alien beneficiary is shown to be ineligible to be granted lawful permanent resident status because of the per country visa limitations, then the H-1B extension request under the provisions of ?104(c) of AC21 may be granted for a maximum of three year increments, until such time as the alien?s application for adjustment of status has been processed and a decision made thereupon.
    That explains the 1 year H1B extension when the FA PD is current.
    LPR Since 07MAY2021

  15. #3265
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    Quote Originally Posted by MKPD2015 View Post
    Hello Idliman and other seniors/experts,

    My Priority Date is EB2 Nov 2015. Like many others I am trying to see when/what are the chances for my PD to get current in the next 2 years.
    We all know we have 121k spillover for FY 21 and not all visas are going to be used before Sep 2021.
    So far, in FY 2021, for Family Category under 226k limit, they have allocated approx 2500 visas until March 2021. still ~223k to go.
    The consulates are open for Immigrant Visas now, but they are processing with limited resources and with a priority now. See below that USCIS published on Apr 30. I am sure many of you might have noticed already

    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...itization.html

    FB category falls under tier3, EB under tier4. They will process Immediate Relative visas as priority and under tier 1 as you can read above. Which means, FB usage will be very low that we may get ~150k to 160k or even more. I know CO said there will be minimum of 135k, so I am trying to say that the number will be more than 150k for FY 2022(starting from FY 2021). If any bill passes that prevents the spillover then it is totally different discussion.

    There are ~490k pending consular apps waiting for interviews. Please see the below tweet for more info.

    https://twitter.com/doug_rand/status...58207605903361

    So, as some are projecting here and in other platforms, if by Sep 2021, Covid magically disappears and everything became normal, How are they going to process all these pending applications at the consular posts worldwide? Even if they increase the resources to pre-covid level, wouldn't it take time to allocate visa interview slots and process all these according to the priority that USCIS mentioned above.

    Where I am going with all this? The FB usage/visa number allocation will still be low into the Q1 of FY2022, i.e October to December 2021 because of huge pending visa applications at consular posts and that FB category is under tier 3.
    So, I am expecting another spillover from FB to EB in Oct 2022 as well. I do not know how much it will be, but even if it is 20k, 30k or 50k additional spillover that would be good for EB2/EB3 2015 folks. Most probably EB1 still remains current by Oct 2022 unless there is a significant uptick in EB1 India apps between Oct 2021 and Oct 2022.

    Please let me know your inputs or where potentially above scenarios could fail that would impact 2015 PDs.
    I wish the immigration process is simple and void of all these predictions and trend analysis. But it is what it is. We have been talking about SO (Spill Over) and the rest since October 2020. Now is the time for CO and USCIS to act what we've been discussing all along. We know for a fact EB-1 to EB-2 spillover kicked in and helped move EB2 date past May 2010. But the next few visa bulletins leading up FY2022 are going to be super critical. This is the first time such a huge SO from FB (Family) is flowing into EB (Employment). I'm looking forward to the FY2021 report from USCIS around October which will give everyone valid data points to look into the future. Every single visa wasted is going to have a cascading effect. The ROW demand is another unknown which is forcing USCIS to apply the SO only in Q4 setting up the stage for potential wastage.

    All I can say is, get your docs (birth certficate/marriage certificate, the rest) ready and wait for FY2022. If you decide to downgrade, talk to your employer and make sure everything is ok with them. Once USCIS publishes FY2021 report, you will have valid data points regarding downgrades and USCIS processing capacity of SO visas. Then you can predict EB2/EB3 movements with much more accuracy to plan your future. Hope this helps.
    Last edited by beagle; 05-17-2021 at 01:29 PM.

  16. #3266
    Guys,
    I have two questions
    1- After AOS EAD is obtained , and 180 days after RD has passed. Can I take up parallel employment on EAD, while being on H1 with the petitioning employer?. I know we can work multiple jobs on AOS EAD, but my question is specific to H1B & AOS EAD in use simultaneously.

    2- I understand that worksite location for same employer ( petitioner) can be changed after 180 days have passed on AOS and this doesn't require I485J. Does this mean, I have to be on AOS EAD or I could be on H1B

    Thanks in advance

  17. #3267
    Quote Originally Posted by vidya_garu View Post
    Guys,
    I have two questions
    1- After AOS EAD is obtained , and 180 days after RD has passed. Can I take up parallel employment on EAD, while being on H1 with the petitioning employer?. I know we can work multiple jobs on AOS EAD, but my question is specific to H1B & AOS EAD in use simultaneously.

    2- I understand that worksite location for same employer ( petitioner) can be changed after 180 days have passed on AOS and this doesn't require I485J. Does this mean, I have to be on AOS EAD or I could be on H1B

    Thanks in advance
    #1. You can’t be on both the status at the same time.
    #2. Depends on the employment location mentioned in PERM. If they mentioned only one location then you may need 485J or if they mentioned multiple locations then you may not need 485J. This has nothing to do with if you want to be on H1 or AOS EAD.

  18. #3268
    Yoda
    Join Date
    Dec 2018
    Location
    TX
    Posts
    323
    Quote Originally Posted by vidya_garu View Post
    1- After AOS EAD is obtained , and 180 days after RD has passed. Can I take up parallel employment on EAD, while being on H1 with the petitioning employer?. I know we can work multiple jobs on AOS EAD, but my question is specific to H1B & AOS EAD in use simultaneously.
    I have heard some folks say that this is possible. I, however have not seen any USCIS ruling in regards to this. So even if possible it probably is a grey area. It's best to stay clear of grey areas this close to getting greened. Either be on H1 or switch over to EAD for multiple jobs.

    Quote Originally Posted by vidya_garu View Post
    2- I understand that worksite location for same employer ( petitioner) can be changed after 180 days have passed on AOS and this doesn't require I485J. Does this mean, I have to be on AOS EAD or I could be on H1B
    This depends on your PERM. If you work for the direct client usually the PERM specifies a location the job is to be performed at. In that case you will need to file 485J supplement for any location change. If it's a consulting company, usually they have a specification in Perm which say "may work in unanticipated locations" (or something to that effect). In this case, there is no need to file 485J. However you will need to file H1B amendment if you chose to stay on H1.
    Last edited by vsivarama; 05-17-2021 at 07:02 PM.

  19. #3269
    Quote Originally Posted by vidya_garu View Post
    Guys,
    2- I understand that worksite location for same employer ( petitioner) can be changed after 180 days have passed on AOS and this doesn't require I485J. Does this mean, I have to be on AOS EAD or I could be on H1B
    Thanks in advance
    You are correct. AC21 portability is very broad. It allows work in the same or a different geographic location. It acknowledges that there are varying rates of pay in different geometric locations. The law talks about only "same or similar". USCIS service manual acknowledges work in a new location. IMO, you don't need a new I-485 J if you are doing the same job description with the same employer after 180 days of pending I-485.

    However, H1B is for a specific employer for a specific job at specified locations. H1B would require an amendment if you move to a geographic location that is not specified in H1B. If you decide to keep working on H1B after getting EAD/AP, you need to maitain its validity. EAD by definition is "unrestricted open market employment". So does not need any more explanation.
    LPR Since 07MAY2021

  20. #3270
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Oct 2020
    Location
    edison NJ
    Posts
    18
    Quick Question on Medicals. The 60 days rule for medical is only for submitting during the original application date. "To ensure your medical examination results are still valid when we adjudicate your associated benefit application, you should schedule the medical examination as close as possible to the time you file for adjustment of status, respond to a Request for Evidence, or attend an interview (if applicable). NOTE: The Form I-693 must be dated no earlier than 60 days before you filed your underlying application."

    My application was file don Oct 20. Does the above statement means I can do my medical and keep ready whenever the Medical RFE is recd ( It won't expire in 60 days, it will have 2 year validity?

    Guru's please provide your perspective. I want to get the medical done and keep ready so that I can respond the the RFE ASAP. Between I might be current in the next visa bulletin

  21. #3271
    Quote Originally Posted by Viking View Post
    Quick Question on Medicals. The 60 days rule for medical is only for submitting during the original application date. "To ensure your medical examination results are still valid when we adjudicate your associated benefit application, you should schedule the medical examination as close as possible to the time you file for adjustment of status, respond to a Request for Evidence, or attend an interview (if applicable). NOTE: The Form I-693 must be dated no earlier than 60 days before you filed your underlying application."

    My application was file don Oct 20. Does the above statement means I can do my medical and keep ready whenever the Medical RFE is recd ( It won't expire in 60 days, it will have 2 year validity?

    Guru's please provide your perspective. I want to get the medical done and keep ready so that I can respond the the RFE ASAP. Between I might be current in the next visa bulletin
    You cannot send in your I-693 Signed and sealed now (unless you receive an RFE). The form is valid for 60-days after signed by USCIS approved civil surgeon. Once it is received by USCIS (after issuing RFE or at time on initial I-485 filing) it is valid for 2-years. You have to wait until you receive the RFE (unless you want to take risk and confident that you will receive it in next 60 days).

  22. #3272
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Oct 2020
    Location
    edison NJ
    Posts
    18
    the 60 days is only for intial submission package. Thats what my question is NOTE: The Form I-693 must be dated no earlier than 60 days before you filed your underlying application."

    The statement says 60 days earlier than underlying application which is 485 filed in October 2020, thereafter it does not mention that it has to be 60 days before sending for RFE response

  23. #3273
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Feb 2020
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    14
    My PD is Apr-2011 (EB2-I), AOS application is pending over 180 days, EAD/AP is approved but not for H4 dependents (my son is in college). I have a potential job offer. Can someone please clarify the following points?

    • Should I consider joining new employer using EAD or H1-B transfer, if there are any known risks
    • Is it possible to downgrade by filing new I-140 in Eb3-I through new employer, without restarting GC process (i.e. filing new PERM)

  24. #3274
    Yoda
    Join Date
    Dec 2018
    Location
    TX
    Posts
    323
    Quote Originally Posted by RVSree View Post
    My PD is Apr-2011 (EB2-I), AOS application is pending over 180 days, EAD/AP is approved but not for H4 dependents (my son is in college). I have a potential job offer. Can someone please clarify the following points?

    • Should I consider joining new employer using EAD or H1-B transfer, if there are any known risks
    • Is it possible to downgrade by filing new I-140 in Eb3-I through new employer, without restarting GC process (i.e. filing new PERM)
    How old is your son? You may NOT want to use EAD until FAD is current so that your sons age is locked in. The moment you switch to EAD all dependents (non US citizens) are force to AOS status and no longer are in H4. Having an underlying status of H4 is important for your son in case he is close to ageing out. He cannot change status from AOS-EAD to F1 (it's risky) but he can from H4-F1 if need be.

  25. #3275
    Quote Originally Posted by Viking View Post
    the 60 days is only for intial submission package. Thats what my question is NOTE: The Form I-693 must be dated no earlier than 60 days before you filed your underlying application."

    The statement says 60 days earlier than underlying application which is 485 filed in October 2020, thereafter it does not mention that it has to be 60 days before sending for RFE response
    You can go check other forums. If what you are saying is true, the 2012 filers who are not greened yet and became currently in Feb'21 to April' 21 would be sending I-693 (original expired after 2 years) without RFE assuming USCIS will accept them and no new RFE for medicals will be sent. If you are confident to receive RFE within 60 days of you getting I-693 signed then you should be fine.
    Last edited by peterpan; 05-18-2021 at 04:52 PM.

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