EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[trackitgc]

This is old news but I do think the USCIS resources hired recently would definitely help in speeding up the process going forward. I don't think all of them have been hired but they did fill in a decent chunk of these openings. I'm from the area so I know the local economy. I believe they are doing the same at the other centers.

https://www.kshb.com/news/local-news...to-kansas-city

[sstest]

Hi,

I am probably in a peculiar situation. Originally EB2 Jul 2011, applied for EB3 downgrade on Oct 29th, 2020. I did receive the notice receipts in Feb end but no further action.

-- Are there other people in my situation who have not received FP notices?
-- Any action items recommended?

PD: EB2-I 12 Jul-2011
I-485, EB3 downgrade 140, I-765, I-131 applied : 29 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : N/A

Appreciate any guidance.

[vsivarama]

Hi,

I am probably in a peculiar situation. Originally EB2 Jul 2011, applied for EB3 downgrade on Oct 29th, 2020. I did receive the notice receipts in Feb end but no further action.

-- Are there other people in my situation who have not received FP notices?
-- Any action items recommended?

PD: EB2-I 12 Jul-2011
I-485, EB3 downgrade 140, I-765, I-131 applied : 29 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : N/A

Appreciate any guidance.

You are not in a peculiar situation. You are in a very common situation. I have no updates on biometrics yet. Received my notice on Jan 13th and so have many others from Texas Service center.

[GCkaLADDU]

Interesting question from a user from trackitt. Or may be i am just being a noob

When is the visa number available considered to be used? FAD moving to a date X means that they have enough visa's available for allocation in a particular category until that date. Lets say 5000 visas to cover folks until 1-Feb-2011 in EB3 in May 2021 Bulletin. Does that mean that all folks 'current' would get a visa number allocated irrespective of when actually a green card is issued (8-12 months down the line)?

Also, if 1000 downgrades kick in during this one month window then how do they get visa numbers allocated? I assume that priority dates play a role meaning original non-downgrade folks towards the later part (ex: end of Jan 2011) might not get visa allotment due to downgrade folks with PD in early to mid Jan 2011.

Anyone knows?

[dexter2010]

Folks, appreciate your wisdom here. I’m EB2 Dec 2010 PD. I applied for AOS for my spouse and me in October 2020. I made a expedite request for my EAD which was approved. So I have my EAD on hand. My
Wife has H4-EAD which expires in August 2021. Her AOS based EAD is still pending. Now, my H1-B expires in August 2021 and we are in the process of renewing H1B and H4. The attorneys are suggest I also pay them 750$ to file I-765 based on H4 c(26).now, they know that her EAD is pending for 180 days but they are still suggesting I renew H4 EAD. I’m not sure if that’s a wise decision. I know I can technically have multiple EAD requests under different categories, but I’m unsure if I should do that. Her AOS EAD may Just come thru before August. For those who have been in similar situations, what did you do?

[sstest]

Folks, appreciate your wisdom here. I’m EB2 Dec 2010 PD. I applied for AOS for my spouse and me in October 2020. I made a expedite request for my EAD which was approved. So I have my EAD on hand. My
Wife has H4-EAD which expires in August 2021. Her AOS based EAD is still pending. Now, my H1-B expires in August 2021 and we are in the process of renewing H1B and H4. The attorneys are suggest I also pay them 750$ to file I-765 based on H4 c(26).now, they know that her EAD is pending for 180 days but they are still suggesting I renew H4 EAD. I’m not sure if that’s a wise decision. I know I can technically have multiple EAD requests under different categories, but I’m unsure if I should do that. Her AOS EAD may Just come thru before August. For those who have been in similar situations, what did you do?

As always, difficult to say what would be the right decision. I am in a similar situation and I can share my decision and rationale for it.

As posted above, I am EB2, Jul 2011 and, unfortunately, needed to downgrade so comparatively you are in a better shape there with a straight filing. I am also due for H1, H4, and potentially H4EAD refresh. I am going for H4EAD for my spouse; the current one expires in Sep 2021.

Two reasons:
-- As evidenced by my case (No FP notice yet after 6 months), USCIS processing timelines are quite unpredictable. With my downgrade and new 140 etc, GC may/will easily take more than a year. I would like to stay on H1/H4 path and not move to I-485 pending state for an extended period.
-- H4EAD comes with 3-year validity so we should be done with 1 more go at it - if everything else goes well. I-485 EAD will most probably need to be renewed once more as everyone seems to be getting a 1 year validity card.

Good luck with your decision and application!

[Djidondon]

Coming back to the actual predictions, and spill overs there is actually a good chance for the number of visas in EB closer to 300,000. And unlike start of 2021, we do not have EB1 backlog or Eb2,3 -ROW backlog or demand to hamper the needs of EB2 and 3.
With the corona ramifications still high, a good movement expected for FY 2022 as well.

How would as EB immigrants, we make best use of the resources which are limited, while the visas numbers are high.

1. If you are before Jan 2015, and you have downgraded, stay put. If you have not again stay put. There are enough visa numbers to cover your cases for 2022. If you have doubt look at my profile image which shows the approved 140 numbers.
2. If the filing dates have passed Jan 2015 please downgrade if EB3 provides you EAD. If you are changing jobs, and have the option to file new 140 always go for EB3. The idea floated mostly is go to EB2 and downgrade if necessary which is really a horrible suggestion. EB2 has nearly 300,000 primary 140s till 2020 and if you have a chance to file it again via job change go for EB3.
3. The first use of EB visas for FY2022 is going to be for Eb2 I by the look of it. So people if you are after May 2011 and downgraded, and see the EB2 dates moving up again, do the possible homework now itself. If your Eb2-3 is an amended petition, you cannot interfile. If it is filed as new you can interfile. However if the dates are close by, while it is your full right to file whatever which can get your GC faster, please be considerate to the resources and if the extra work is worth it when the things are so close.
4. And last but not the least if the pandemic continues for another year, the struggles we faced would have all but vanished, as in 2023, a 2018-19 filer will be dominating this discussion boards !!!

AceMan, I hope all is well. Do you think I?ll have chances to apply for AOS by downgrading to EB3I coming Oct 2021 ? My PD is Nov 2016

With a good forward momentum in final action dates in May VB and next upcoming 4 months visa bulletin, do you think August visa bulletin can provide some directions whether my PD will be in DOF for Oct 2021?

[vsivarama]

Folks, appreciate your wisdom here. I’m EB2 Dec 2010 PD. I applied for AOS for my spouse and me in October 2020. I made a expedite request for my EAD which was approved. So I have my EAD on hand. My
Wife has H4-EAD which expires in August 2021. Her AOS based EAD is still pending. Now, my H1-B expires in August 2021 and we are in the process of renewing H1B and H4. The attorneys are suggest I also pay them 750$ to file I-765 based on H4 c(26).now, they know that her EAD is pending for 180 days but they are still suggesting I renew H4 EAD. I’m not sure if that’s a wise decision. I know I can technically have multiple EAD requests under different categories, but I’m unsure if I should do that. Her AOS EAD may Just come thru before August. For those who have been in similar situations, what did you do?

Question, when you went through the trouble of expediting your EAD then why are you filing H1? Why can't you just move to EAD and be done with H1? If you did not want to move to EAD what was the reason for expediting EAD? Even if you were to stick to H1 for some reason, with your PD being so close to being current why not wait till august to file your H1? If I were in your place, I would not unnecessarily be needling USCIS to keep revisiting my cases.

[dexter2010]

Question, when you went through the trouble of expediting your EAD then why are you filing H1? Why can't you just move to EAD and be done with H1? If you did not want to move to EAD what was the reason for expediting EAD? Even if you were to stick to H1 for some reason, with your PD being so close to being current why not wait till august to file your H1? If I were in your place, I would not unnecessarily be needling USCIS to keep revisiting my cases.

Great question /u/vsivarama. I had to expedite my EAD for two reasons:
1. I was very close to negotiating a new job offer, which unfortunately has fallen through.
2. I need to travel out of the country for personal reason which can’t be avoided. I wanted to make sure that I don’t get into risks with re-entry. Though my H1 should be good, I didn’t want to take chances.

While I may become current by August 2021, I highly doubt I will have my GC in hand given the processing timelines. So it would be prudent to renew H1-B/H4.

My wife’s job is dependent on her having EAD. If I apply for H4 EAD renewal now, that would take about 9 months, by that time, the AOS EAD should have come through (given that it’s already been about 6 months).

I think my dilemma is stemming from me being over cautious by nature; figured there should be others with similar situations and I can benefit from their experiences.

[vsivarama]

While I may become current by August 2021, I highly doubt I will have my GC in hand given the processing timelines. So it would be prudent to renew H1-B/H4.

My wife’s job is dependent on her having EAD. If I apply for H4 EAD renewal now, that would take about 9 months, by that time, the AOS EAD should have come through (given that it’s already been about 6 months).

You are acknowledging that your wife will NOT benefit with H4-EAD whether filed now or in August. So is there no need to file for H4-EAD if you are sure AOS-EAD is the way forward for her from here. Even if you are being overly cautious there is absolutely no reason for filing H1 before August. You can wait 3 months and proceed however you want in August. Why are you leaving out the off chance of USCIS rejecting your H1 before you get your GC when you are already factoring an off chance of them rejecting your 485. H1's are 3 times more likely to be denied than a 485 application. Now that's being overly cautious!!

[Transformer]

My wife’s job is dependent on her having EAD. If I apply for H4 EAD renewal now, that would take about 9 months, by that time, the AOS EAD should have come through (given that it’s already been about 6 months).

Knowing the current H4/H4-EAD timeline, which is more than an year, there is no way the H4-EAD will help your wife to continue her job. So the only option is to wait for the GC EAD. I am not sure why you didn't expedite EAD for your wife and only did for you. From your situation, she needs EAD more than you.

[AceMan]

You are acknowledging that your wife will NOT benefit with H4-EAD whether filed now or in August. So is there no need to file for H4-EAD if you are sure AOS-EAD is the way forward for her from here. Even if you are being overly cautious there is absolutely no reason for filing H1 before August. You can wait 3 months and proceed however you want in August. Why are you leaving out the off chance of USCIS rejecting your H1 before you get your GC when you are already factoring an off chance of them rejecting your 485. H1's are 3 times more likely to be denied than a 485 application. Now that's being overly cautious!!

I recall an IPL image which Harsha Bogle was commenting about couple of days back. It was a no-ball image, where the foot of the bowler was marginally over the popping crease, while the non striker was already 2-3 yards out of the crease.

There is no way this person is going to change any of the things he has already decided will do. Like Q mentioned earlier, every person is a slave to his nature. I am a slave to responding to things which I deem as atrocity, irrespective of its legality.

[Viking]

Quick Question: My PD date is June 2011 EB3. My biometrics is done a couple of weeks back. I did not submit my medical with the AOS package. My family is planning to go to India for summer vacation for almost 3 months June- August. There is a strong possibility my FAD might become current in the next couple of months. Shall I submit my medicals without waiting for RFE, is there any downside to that?

[AceMan]

Quick Question: My PD date is June 2011 EB3. My biometrics is done a couple of weeks back. I did not submit my medical with the AOS package. My family is planning to go to India for summer vacation for almost 3 months June- August. There is a strong possibility my FAD might become current in the next couple of months. Shall I submit my medicals without waiting for RFE, is there any downside to that?

Right in the middle of raging pandemic in India?

[Transformer]

Quick Question: My PD date is June 2011 EB3. My biometrics is done a couple of weeks back. I did not submit my medical with the AOS package. My family is planning to go to India for summer vacation for almost 3 months June- August. There is a strong possibility my FAD might become current in the next couple of months. Shall I submit my medicals without waiting for RFE, is there any downside to that?

I strongly advice not to travel unless it is emergency. Your PD will be current in a month or two and you can receive RFE anytime. Even if you send medicals without RFE, there is no guarantee they will accept it. Also with the Covid situation in India right now, I don't advice travel.

[2011Feb]

Folks, appreciate your wisdom here. I’m EB2 Dec 2010 PD. I applied for AOS for my spouse and me in October 2020. I made a expedite request for my EAD which was approved. So I have my EAD on hand. My
Wife has H4-EAD which expires in August 2021. Her AOS based EAD is still pending. Now, my H1-B expires in August 2021 and we are in the process of renewing H1B and H4. The attorneys are suggest I also pay them 750$ to file I-765 based on H4 c(26).now, they know that her EAD is pending for 180 days but they are still suggesting I renew H4 EAD. I’m not sure if that’s a wise decision. I know I can technically have multiple EAD requests under different categories, but I’m unsure if I should do that. Her AOS EAD may Just come thru before August. For those who have been in similar situations, what did you do?

Hi,
I can tell from my own story. Getting approved from AOS EAD is having better chance then H4EAD.
I applied H1 extension (H4 and EAD for my wife) in Aug 2010. My H1 is approved. My wife's H4 and EAD is still pending.
Tried multiple times for expediting H4 EAD , nothing worked. (Multiple SR's, One time with Senator's office). Finally my wife had to quit a job.
Applied EAD through AOS and got our EAD's recently.
Again this is case to case, you think decide .

[vsivarama]

Quick Question: My PD date is June 2011 EB3. My biometrics is done a couple of weeks back. I did not submit my medical with the AOS package. My family is planning to go to India for summer vacation for almost 3 months June- August. There is a strong possibility my FAD might become current in the next couple of months. Shall I submit my medicals without waiting for RFE, is there any downside to that?

I am sending in my medicals earlier via interfiling on my lawyers suggestion. As per his experience there have been many hits and also misses. Worst case is USCIS will resend an RFE for medicals again. In that case your family would either need to cut their vacation short or if enough time on RFE response can come back as per their original plans. One more thing my doctor said yesterday was that they internally treat medicals valid for a year. And so in case USCIS sends out an RFE in a year, the doctor's office said they would just re-date the forms and hand it over to us. Yeah, but travel in this pandemic is risky though.

[android09]

Quick Question: My PD date is June 2011 EB3. My biometrics is done a couple of weeks back. I did not submit my medical with the AOS package. My family is planning to go to India for summer vacation for almost 3 months June- August. There is a strong possibility my FAD might become current in the next couple of months. Shall I submit my medicals without waiting for RFE, is there any downside to that?

I?m not one to judge and tell you what to do, but please consider the risk of traveling anywhere. Right now India is clocking 315,000 cases a day. This is an undercount by atleast 25-30%. If you are vaccinated, that is good. What is not clearly known is can you transmit while being vaccinated. Also, no vaccine yet for children. Please take precautions.

[beagle]

Quick Question: My PD date is June 2011 EB3. My biometrics is done a couple of weeks back. I did not submit my medical with the AOS package. My family is planning to go to India for summer vacation for almost 3 months June- August. There is a strong possibility my FAD might become current in the next couple of months. Shall I submit my medicals without waiting for RFE, is there any downside to that?

Considering all that you've gone through to reach the very final step and knowing very well your PD might be current very soon, its safe to assume that you will receive the RFE for I693 soon. Now your family wants to travel to India for vacation. Well, its your call. What if there is a travel ban after your family is in India ? How can your wife get her medical report when you receive the RFE ? What if your preemptive move of sending the RFE is rejected ? Is air travel save for the kids without any vaccine ? What if you are forced to miss the RFE deadline ? My RFE medical had a deadline of 84 days to respond.

[maverick2010]

Folks, appreciate your wisdom here. I?m EB2 Dec 2010 PD. I applied for AOS for my spouse and me in October 2020. I made a expedite request for my EAD which was approved. So I have my EAD on hand. My
Wife has H4-EAD which expires in August 2021. Her AOS based EAD is still pending. Now, my H1-B expires in August 2021 and we are in the process of renewing H1B and H4. The attorneys are suggest I also pay them 750$ to file I-765 based on H4 c(26).now, they know that her EAD is pending for 180 days but they are still suggesting I renew H4 EAD. I?m not sure if that?s a wise decision. I know I can technically have multiple EAD requests under different categories, but I?m unsure if I should do that. Her AOS EAD may Just come thru before August. For those who have been in similar situations, what did you do?

Great question...

Achieving H4 EAD continuity(i.e., getting extension on time) is almost impossible lately. With that being the case, it looks like most of the folks in H4 have only two options

a. Take a break from the current job until your H4 EAD extension gets approved (or)
b. Jump into I-485/some other EAD or work visa to stay in the job

Unless JB does something ASAP, I don't see any other choice for now. It is very unfortunate how H4 EAD folks life's are affecting by these intentional delays - Atrocious...

[Viking]

Considering all that you've gone through to reach the very final step and knowing very well your PD might be current very soon, its safe to assume that you will receive the RFE for I693 soon. Now your family wants to travel to India for vacation. Well, its your call. What if there is a travel ban after your family is in India ? How can your wife get her medical report when you receive the RFE ? What if your preemptive move of sending the RFE is rejected ? Is air travel save for the kids without any vaccine ? What if you are forced to miss the RFE deadline ? My RFE medical had a deadline of 84 days to respond.

Thanks everyone for your concern and responses. I very well understand the downsides, there are reasons for the travel. But hoping things might stabilize by June. That's the reason I want to keep the medical done and submit without an RFE. Will that work, or as someone suggested, that the doctor may redate and provide if its within a year

[Mgajsk]

------------------
Today is the 185th day and future is very blissful!! Thank you for all the advisers in this group !!!
Congrats to all who are current and those who have/will receive EADs.

Covid-19 surely brought some mixed feelings and emotions !!

No. However talk to the employer and make sure that they will support you in I-485 Supp. J process after AC21.


You can work anywhere (extreme examples are Pizza boy, Cook/Roti maker, etc.,) and you can work any number of jobs with EAD. However, when USCIS sends you a RFE for I-485, you need to have a future job in same or similar category as original PERM/I-140. So you can do anything or not work at all till the I-485 RFE shows up.

That is not what you say. Once you file a I-485 and stay with the same employer for 180 days then you are eligible for AC21 protections. Even if the employer revokes I-140, it will not affect you. The AC21 law provides additional protection. For this reason, it is advisable that you stay with the same employer for 180 days after filing I-485. If you leave your employer before 180 days, I believe you need to do a new PERM/I-140 with the new employer.


Wait 180 days. Then have a copy of original PERM (with job description and SOC code) and copies of I-140 and I-485 (receipt notice). I-485 receipt notice (along with mailer bar code) is very important in grand scheme of things. It is required for renewing your EAD/AP in the future. Also it would be very helpful for your attorneys to justify your job in same or similar category when the I-485 RFE shows up.

Bottom line with I-485 EAD/AP you will be in Trishanku Status. You are in-between H1B and GC.

[incredible]

Thanks everyone for your concern and responses. I very well understand the downsides, there are reasons for the travel. But hoping things might stabilize by June. That's the reason I want to keep the medical done and submit without an RFE. Will that work, or as someone suggested, that the doctor may redate and provide if its within a year

While you are best judge of your prevailing situations, traveling to India in summer (Even in June) is risky. The important point is if US decides to ban travel back from India and if there is an RFE, you may not be able to honor the RFE response. There are a lot of unknowns as it is related to how USCIS issues RFE etc. You can send medicals now and hope that it will suffice and you will never receive an RFE, but that is just hope.

[march1612]

Hi,

I am in a different city on a business trip away from my home address which is on file with I485 application.

My Priority date is current and Do not see any update from TSC on my case yet using USCIS case status tool.

1. Is USCIS proactive in updating the case status online in case of RFE or case updates?
2. Does USCIS only send paper RFE's ? Is yes, does Attorney on file get the copy of RFE?
3. How to connect to USCIS Customer service agent via phone, the automated system always hangs up

[LeoAugust]

From CO's live call
1- Sep-2020 Filling dates will be FAD-Sep-2021
2- EB2 will be aggressive in jun-jul
3- EB3 will be aggressive in jun-jul
4- USCIS seems like will honor the apps
5- Current month VB was not aggressive for EB2I due to ROW
6- Aggressive means more than 6 months (my assumption)