EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[1312011_eb2I]

My PD is 2/1/2011 , have I missed FAD by one day under EB3?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

My PD is 2/1/2011 , have I missed FAD by one day under EB3?

Unfortunately yes. People who have a PD before the date are current. It will likely move next bulletin.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

FYI.

@TravelGov will begin hosting "Chats with Charlie" on our YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/user/TravelGov) to discuss information provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin. The first chat is scheduled to take place on April 22, 2021 at 1:00 p.m. EST to discuss the April Visa Bulletin.

[ak7419]

FYI.

@TravelGov will begin hosting "Chats with Charlie" on our YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/user/TravelGov) to discuss information provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin. The first chat is scheduled to take place on April 22, 2021 at 1:00 p.m. EST to discuss the April Visa Bulletin.

Wish USCIS did something like this or at least publish pending inventory. of course, they need more manpower and resources.

[Transformer]

The first chat is scheduled to take place on April 22, 2021 at 1:00 p.m. EST to discuss the April Visa Bulletin.

I don't know why CO wants to discuss April VB. It must be a typo.

[waitin4gc]

Greatly appreciate if my Q can be answered. There are folks who are in similar situation and looking for guidance. Hence, reposting. My Priority date is Feb 28 2011. I filed my I-485 in EB2 category last October and received EAD/AP Combo card recently. While I am still on H1b with the same employer. My employer has offered to downgrade my I-140 to EB3 now. Is it advisable to downgrade to EB3 now? Will there be any impact on I-140 downgrade if I use my previously issued EAD for business on the side and AP for travel.

[inspired_p]

Greatly appreciate if my Q can be answered. There are folks who are in similar situation and looking for guidance. Hence, reposting. My Priority date is Feb 28 2011. I filed my I-485 in EB2 category last October and received EAD/AP Combo card recently. While I am still on H1b with the same employer. My employer has offered to downgrade my I-140 to EB3 now. Is it advisable to downgrade to EB3 now? Will there be any impact on I-140 downgrade if I use my previously issued EAD for business on the side and AP for travel.

I am no expert. But I think timeline for I-140 downgrade application to be filled , upgraded to premium and approval will be around 3 months. And then you will have to interfile to change the underlying petition from EB2 to EB3. Based on the trend EB2 might move 9 months in the next 3 months. Not sure if you would get the benefit of EB3 downgrade in terms of FAD being current at this point of time.
EAD and AP should not affect I-140 downgrade petition.

[vedu]

Always put the RFE letter on top of the response and other info below the RFE letter, the RFE has a bar code so I would suggest using different packages and send it in to USCIS.

Thank you! I will certainly follow your advice. My immediate boss is willing to sign the Supp J, but HR as always is taking their sweet time! I am even thinking of going with the signature of my immediate boss (without HR's inputs/signatures), but certainly don't want to rush things now that I am so close to the final destination.

[incredible]

I am no expert. But I think timeline for I-140 downgrade application to be filled , upgraded to premium and approval will be around 3 months. And then you will have to interfile to change the underlying petition from EB2 to EB3. Based on the trend EB2 might move 9 months in the next 3 months. Not sure if you would get the benefit of EB3 downgrade in terms of FAD being current at this point of time.
EAD and AP should not affect I-140 downgrade petition.

rightly said. Please consider overall timeline in these scenarios with the potential of EB2 moving into 2011 as well.

[inspired_p]

The link you sent is only for AC21 provision. It's not after GC.

After GC, it's still a grey area. That's where you go with attorney's advice. 6-12 months is considered enough time by most attorneys.
If you leave as soon as you receive your GC then you need to substantiate it to USCIS during N-400 if a need arises. So staying with your employer at least for 6 months is sorta future proof. Leaving earlier than that, you need to be prepared if USCIS asks any questions during N-400.

https://www.murthy.com/2019/07/29/ch...ed-green-card/

And, several others give you the same advice. My attorney recommends at least 6 months.

After 180 days of pending I-485 application, AC21 allows the employee to change employers.
If GC is approved after 6 months of I-485 application there is no reason USCIS will look at employment change in the same job category negatively. And there has been no cases documented where USCIS saw it as negative at the time of naturalization.

Only grey area is if GC gets approved within 180 days of applying I-485. As AC 21 would have kicked in only after 180 days if GC was not approved.

[Transformer]

I am no expert. But I think timeline for I-140 downgrade application to be filled , upgraded to premium and approval will be around 3 months. And then you will have to interfile to change the underlying petition from EB2 to EB3. Based on the trend EB2 might move 9 months in the next 3 months. Not sure if you would get the benefit of EB3 downgrade in terms of FAD being current at this point of time.
EAD and AP should not affect I-140 downgrade petition.

Agree with your points. Downgrade approval of 140 in PP in 3 months is very optimistic. For lots of people PP is rejected 2, 3 times. If PP is not accepted then it will be 8-9 months for 140 alone. Interfiling is another gray area where there is no timeline. I think the right thing to do for everyone applied in EB2 (until May 2011) to stay in there to get the GC early.

[Jonty Rhodes]

I have a question regarding EB3 premium processing rejection.

I filed an EB2-EB3 downgrade on October 28, 2020. My EB3 I-140 is now pending for 174 days. I recently upgraded my EB3 I-140 to premium processing on March 23, 2021. My premium processing was rejected on March 29, 2021, because NSC did not have my original I-140 file with them and per rules, they can't do premium processing unless they have the original I-140 file with them.

The notice says
__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _________
"Form I-907, remittance(s) and supporting documentation are being returned for the following reason(s):

The original Department of Labor ETA-9089 was submitted with a previously filed I-140. The file containing the original ETA-9089n is currently not at this service center. According to the requirements for acceptability for Premium Processing, the entire original ETA-9089 must be present at the service center at the time of filing Form I-907.

We have initiated a request for the related file. Please wait at least 30 days before resubmitting."
__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _________

So it seems like that I can request premium processing again in 30 days and hope that USCIS would have got my original I-140 file by that time.

My original EB2 I-140 was approved by NSC. My new downgraded EB3 I-140 is also at NSC. Both receipts start with code LIN.

So I find it very strange that USCIS is saying that my previously filed I-140 is not at NSC now and they have to request it from another service center.

Has anyone had a similar experience or knowledge about this scenario? My PD is May 20, 2011, so it is likely that it will get current in the EB3 category in the June bulletin.

[AceMan]

Agree with your points. Downgrade approval of 140 in PP in 3 months is very optimistic. For lots of people PP is rejected 2, 3 times. If PP is not accepted then it will be 8-9 months for 140 alone. Interfiling is another gray area where there is no timeline. I think the right thing to do for everyone applied in EB2 (until May 2011) to stay in there to get the GC early.

Every time visa bulletin is released and eb3 FD passes their Eb2 PD, some body or other will have the same question. And the funny thing, he already has his EAD and AP and his company wants to do the downgrade for him. Little unbelievable!!!

The advise to these questions reeking greed should be firm. Stay put in the category you are. I would like to see people like Idli, Ak getting greened after being stuck for while, instead of these greedy people clogging up the queues for no reason.

[asankaran]

Every time visa bulletin is released and eb3 FD passes their Eb2 PD, some body or other will have the same question. And the funny thing, he already has his EAD and AP and his company wants to do the downgrade for him. Little unbelievable!!!

The advise to these questions reeking greed should be firm. Stay put in the category you are. I would like to see people like Idli, Ak getting greened after being stuck for while, instead of these greedy people clogging up the queues for no reason.

I wish the same yardstick was applied when people upgraded from EB3-EB2. There is nothing right or wrong when it comes to Green Card. As long as it is legal and you have earlier priority date, go and grab that green card and move on with your life.

I have been stuck in Eb2 while people preached there is nothing in upgrading, so go for it if it?s worth the effort. In fact most of folks would have downgraded if we had previous administration.

[inspired_p]

Every time visa bulletin is released and eb3 FD passes their Eb2 PD, some body or other will have the same question. And the funny thing, he already has his EAD and AP and his company wants to do the downgrade for him. Little unbelievable!!!

The advise to these questions reeking greed should be firm. Stay put in the category you are. I would like to see people like Idli, Ak getting greened after being stuck for while, instead of these greedy people clogging up the queues for no reason.

We can advise as we feel fit, final decision rests on the individual. In this scenario it absolutely the right advice not to downgrade at this point of time. If he had asked this question last October when he did infact file I-485 on basis of EB2 I-140, the right advice may not have been to Stay put.

[qesehmk]

Every time visa bulletin is released and eb3 FD passes their Eb2 PD, some body or other will have the same question. And the funny thing, he already has his EAD and AP and his company wants to do the downgrade for him. Little unbelievable!!!

The advise to these questions reeking greed should be firm. Stay put in the category you are. I would like to see people like Idli, Ak getting greened after being stuck for while, instead of these greedy people clogging up the queues for no reason.

Yes indeed. Everybody has right to do what is in his/her interest and within legal framework.

We support and do no criticize fellow immigrants for acting in their self interest this way.

[Transformer]

My original EB2 I-140 was approved by NSC. My new downgraded EB3 I-140 is also at NSC. Both receipts start with code LIN.

So I find it very strange that USCIS is saying that my previously filed I-140 is not at NSC now and they have to request it from another service center.

Has anyone had a similar experience or knowledge about this scenario? My PD is May 20, 2011, so it is likely that it will get current in the EB3 category in the June bulletin.

Jonty, I have seen several cases like this in Trackitt. It is my understanding that even though your previous 140 was approved in Nebraska, after a while these documents (PERM/140) are physically stored in a central location that they need to get the physical copy to process the current 140.

Keep trying and it will be accepted. I have seen people successful in getting PP accepted in their 3rd/4th attempt.

[vsivarama]

@Jonty, I have seen the exact same thing happen to a friend of mine. He has already sent in his application a second time. Waiting on the response from USCIS.

[vsivarama]

My two cents on the USCIS processing capacity. It is a noble intent to respect USCIS processing capacities and avoid filing cases which are flimsy and do not necessarily benefit the individual in getting GC any faster. We should have a healthy amount of respect for our limited resources not only in immigration but in life in general. Having said that, I would also like to point out, that a lot of inefficiencies plaguing the USCIS are self inflicted wounds. A lot of unnecessary work was introduced by the previous admin with the sole intent of slowing down immigration (not to make it better). Some of those chains are being released but we are still a far cry from where we were in 2016. If we did not have these inefficiencies introduced into USCIS with malintent, I have no doubt in mind that issuing 261K GCs to EB folks would have been a cake walk for USCIS pandemic or not and even with the people jumping back and forth between the queues wasting USCIS' time.

[ak7419]

My two cents on the USCIS processing capacity. It is a noble intent to respect USCIS processing capacities and avoid filing cases which are flimsy and do not necessarily benefit the individual in getting GC any faster. We should have a healthy amount of respect for our limited resources not only in immigration but in life in general. Having said that, I would also like to point out, that a lot of inefficiencies plaguing the USCIS are self inflicted wounds. A lot of unnecessary work was introduced by the previous admin with the sole intent of slowing down immigration (not to make it better). Some of those chains are being released but we are still a far cry from where we were in 2016. If we did not have these inefficiencies introduced into USCIS with malintent, I have no doubt in mind that issuing 261K GCs to EB folks would have been a cake walk for USCIS pandemic or not and even with the people jumped back and forth between the queues wasting USCIS' time.

I still feel like USCIS got overwhelmed by Oct-Dec downgrades (and compounded by COVID) more than the unnecessary policies introduced by previous adminstration.

[BunnyVas]

Every time visa bulletin is released and eb3 FD passes their Eb2 PD, some body or other will have the same question. And the funny thing, he already has his EAD and AP and his company wants to do the downgrade for him. Little unbelievable!!!

The advise to these questions reeking greed should be firm. Stay put in the category you are. I would like to see people like Idli, Ak getting greened after being stuck for while, instead of these greedy people clogging up the queues for no reason.

You forgot another name --> AceMan, your argument is so selfish.Every one in EB2 also waited as long as you, if their date is before you, they deserve their shot at GC before you.

[AceMan]

Yes indeed. Everybody has right to do what is in his/her interest and within legal framework.

We support and do no criticize fellow immigrants for acting in their self interest this way.

Q, During a pandemic people are requested to stay home. Regularly people will ask can we go out. Most of the times plain request will fall in deaf ears. There were already 2 comments suggesting the futility of the persons actions.

I just added the spices and masala presented it with my trademark piercing points. As I mentioned few months back, I never questioned the people when they downgraded, only after the downgrade window was closed, I let know the people of my thoughts.

My former critic Vsiva, captured the essence of my comment beautifully.

In October 2020, it was a necessity for people for downgrade, in May 2021 when a person already had a Feb 2011 Eb2 PD, EAD approved, attempting to downgrade to Eb3, is an effort of 3-4 months, by which time he could get greened anyways.

I take pride in giving honest opinions and I have absolutely no malice intention with my comments. This particular downgrade action will most probably result ending up in TSC and it can result in decremental effect for applicants waiting there with no advantage for him.

[3March2010]

I just got a notification which seems like a second RFE on Supp J. Havent received the letter yet, so dont know the details. Has anyone experienced that? Any tips?
PD Mar 2010, current in April, NSC.

[qesehmk]

Ace - no worries my friend. I believe you. My only point is - people will always do what they will do. I am a completely secular man but firmly believe this sentence from Bhagvadgita

Prakritam yaanti bhootani

It means people are slave to their nature. So I would never ask somebody not to do something if the guy insists. I give them all the data as well as my opinion why the road to the left is better or the right one. But let them decide what's in their interest.

Q, During a pandemic people are requested to stay home. Regularly people will ask can we go out. Most of the times plain request will fall in deaf ears. There were already 2 comments suggesting the futility of the persons actions.

I just added the spices and masala presented it with my trademark piercing points. As I mentioned few months back, I never questioned the people when they downgraded, only after the downgrade window was closed, I let know the people of my thoughts.

My former critic Vsiva, captured the essence of my comment beautifully.

In October 2020, it was a necessity for people for downgrade, in May 2021 when a person already had a Feb 2011 Eb2 PD, EAD approved, attempting to downgrade to Eb3, is an effort of 3-4 months, by which time he could get greened anyways.

I take pride in giving honest opinions and I have absolutely no malice intention with my comments. This particular downgrade action will most probably result ending up in TSC and it can result in decremental effect for applicants waiting there with no advantage for him.

[AceMan]

Coming back to the actual predictions, and spill overs there is actually a good chance for the number of visas in EB closer to 300,000. And unlike start of 2021, we do not have EB1 backlog or Eb2,3 -ROW backlog or demand to hamper the needs of EB2 and 3.
With the corona ramifications still high, a good movement expected for FY 2022 as well.

How would as EB immigrants, we make best use of the resources which are limited, while the visas numbers are high.

1. If you are before Jan 2015, and you have downgraded, stay put. If you have not again stay put. There are enough visa numbers to cover your cases for 2022. If you have doubt look at my profile image which shows the approved 140 numbers.
2. If the filing dates have passed Jan 2015 please downgrade if EB3 provides you EAD. If you are changing jobs, and have the option to file new 140 always go for EB3. The idea floated mostly is go to EB2 and downgrade if necessary which is really a horrible suggestion. EB2 has nearly 300,000 primary 140s till 2020 and if you have a chance to file it again via job change go for EB3.
3. The first use of EB visas for FY2022 is going to be for Eb2 I by the look of it. So people if you are after May 2011 and downgraded, and see the EB2 dates moving up again, do the possible homework now itself. If your Eb2-3 is an amended petition, you cannot interfile. If it is filed as new you can interfile. However if the dates are close by, while it is your full right to file whatever which can get your GC faster, please be considerate to the resources and if the extra work is worth it when the things are so close.
4. And last but not the least if the pandemic continues for another year, the struggles we faced would have all but vanished, as in 2023, a 2018-19 filer will be dominating this discussion boards !!!