EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[username1]

Any predictions or ideas about EB2 I (PD Aug 2009) RFE response review times?
The lawyer submitted RFE in Jan 2nd week to TSC, RFE included 485j and medicals. No response yet, it is about 80 days. Any predictions on RFE response review times at TSC.

[vsivarama]

My PD is 22/Sep/2016 currently EB2 India. when can i expect my PD to be come current in both EB2 & EB3 India please?

I do not see a path for EB2 - Sep 2016 to be current next FY 2022. There maybe more of a chance in EB3. But for EB3 to progress till your date, USCIS needs to keep the visa wastage to a minimum. The second page of the below chart gives the approved i140s for Indian nationals from 2009 - 2019. So the approved i140 numbers in EB2 till end of 2015 would be around 14000 + 22311+ 21440 + 25634 + 32702 = 116087. I have taken an estimate of 14000 for year 2011 assuming everyone till May 15th, 2011 in EB2 gets a GC. 116087 are just the primary applicants, factoring in dependents the number doubles. Even with 40 % downgrades to EB3 it still leaves ((116087 * 2) * 0.6) = 139304 applications in EB2 till end of 2015. You can do a similar Math for EB3. Here you add up the 40% downgraded numbers each year from EB2 to EB3 totals (from 2011 to 2015) and multiply it by 2 to factor in dependents. You can do the math and see how likely it is for your PD to be included. I have used 40% downgrades, it's an arbitrary number and a judgement call. Unless we get the actual data it's just assumptions here.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ry_FY09_19.pdf

[idliman]

My PD is 22/Sep/2016 currently EB2 India. when can i expect my PD to be come current in both EB2 & EB3 India please?

All of you asking for PD movement predictions, please have some patience. Earlier we used to have Pending inventory data from USCIS. They are no longer publishing that data. Also future movements depend on how many GCs that USCIS processes this year. If they endup wasting spillover, all those people who are in the queue before you will always be ahead of you. We don't know how many people had downgraded from EB2 to EB3. So you cannot say for sure whether EB2 will be faster or EB3 will be faster. DOS Consular Affairs is starting to be more open. They are having YouTube discussions and such. It is just a matter of time, before they publish the data. I suspect that they have not received good input from USCIS yet.

Till reliable numbers come out from USCIS, any prediction will be the equivalent of DSP Singham knocking out 10 bad guys in one blow.

[AceMan]

@aceman, @visvarama can you please provide an answer for my question above?

Are you looking for Filing or Final? Might be feasible if the dates are moved to December 2016 in Oct 21 bulletin. For that to happen EB should be getting close to 200,000 spill over visas from Family.

I would recommend you to read the post by most of the people here to have an understanding of how the numbers are presented.

[Zenzone]

All of you asking for PD movement predictions, please have some patience. Earlier we used to have Pending inventory data from USCIS. They are no longer publishing that data. Also future movements depend on how many GCs that USCIS processes this year. If they endup wasting spillover, all those people who are in the queue before you will always be ahead of you. We don't know how many people had downgraded from EB2 to EB3. So you cannot say for sure whether EB2 will be faster or EB3 will be faster. DOS Consular Affairs is starting to be more open. They are having YouTube discussions and such. It is just a matter of time, before they publish the data. I suspect that they have not received good input from USCIS yet.

Till reliable numbers come out from USCIS, any prediction will be the equivalent of DSP Singham knocking out 10 bad guys in one blow.

Agree! There is no data watsover to be precise here. But its common sense to assume that anyone after May-2011 would have downgraded (if it was ever an option) to get their EAD at the minimum.

[moonlight]

From April 2021 onward, the October filers will gradually be eligible for AC 21 and H1B transfer. Will these new petitions impact EAD/GC processing speed?
Not sure if the same USCIS manpower is allocated to process all kinds of applications.

[Transformer]

From April 2021 onward, the October filers will gradually be eligible for AC 21 and H1B transfer. Will these new petitions impact EAD/GC processing speed?

I am not concerned with the volume of AC21 applications. Since the FAD dates are moving aggressively, I believe few people change companies unless it is a good offer. Even if they do, I don't think it's lot of work to approve 485j. Also I believe very small set of people opt for H1 transfer after AC21 eligible.
My main concern will be new H1 applications and how USCIS prioritizes them over 485 applications.

[Djidondon]

My PD is 22/Sep/2016 currently EB2 India. when can i expect my PD to be come current in both EB2 & EB3 India please?

Chances are high to be in filling dates in Oct 2021 visa bulletin, I?m assuming until March 2017 EB3I to be current in filling dates.

[android09]

Here is a question...can we really trust the USCIS "Case Status" for anything? Not sure it reflects the real time status. I ask because my I-140 was approved back in 2019, the company received the physical approval notice in 2019 itself and we've used it to submit I-485 documents, have receipts for I-485, I-765, I-131 and have finished biometrics but the status on the website for I-140 still says "Received" for I-140 two years out. Wondering when those statuses actually update?

[ShivaPrasad]

I have a question which I hope someone can answer:
My PD is June 2010. I applied for I-485 in Oct 2020 and have received our EAD/AP combo card in Jan 2021 with one year validity so its valid until Jan 2022.
My H1B is valid until June 2021 (as is my drivers license) and my company still has not filed for an extension as we are waiting for the next bulletin to see where the Final Action Date lands. Hoping that it crosses June 2010.

We are in Texas. Do you know what documents the DOT will need to renew our license in June? Will the EAD/AP card be ok? If anyone of you is in Texas what have you done to renew TX drivers license?

If you have valid EAD, that and Passport is enough. Do take I94 just in case.

[amey111]

Hello all,
First of all thank you to all the experts for the wonderful advice/discussions here. I have been a silent reader for a while now, and posting on this forum for the first time. My apologies if this is the wrong thread.

Current Situation:
Priority Date: Oct 2012
EAD and AP received on Mar 30, 2021 (applied on Oct 9, 2020)
Pending I-140 approval for downgrade from EB2 to EB3 (applied on Oct 9, 2020)

My spouse is on H1-B, just changed jobs, and obviously has no PERM with new employer

I have an offer for a new job from an employer who will NOT transfer H1-B. I want to know the process to change jobs on EAD while minimizing risks.

The process per my understanding:
1. Stay with current employer till I-140 downgrade approve. I do not want to risk rejection and/or RFE situation with I-140.
2. Once I-140 approved and offer details with new employer finalized, apply I-485 J for change of job
3. Once I-485J approved, resign from current employer and join new job

Could the experts please chime in if my understanding of the process is correct? What are the risks of joining new employer on EAD and let go of H1-B?

Thank you.

[vsivarama]

Here is a question...can we really trust the USCIS "Case Status" for anything? Not sure it reflects the real time status. I ask because my I-140 was approved back in 2019, the company received the physical approval notice in 2019 itself and we've used it to submit I-485 documents, have receipts for I-485, I-765, I-131 and have finished biometrics but the status on the website for I-140 still says "Received" for I-140 two years out. Wondering when those statuses actually update?

USCIS is usually good about updating the status. But there could be some applications 5% - 10% where the status never updates. Could be something manual that the officer needs to trigger which never got triggered. At this point, I would not hold out hope for a status change for your i140 application from nearly 2 years ago. Anyways, now that you have your physical copies, the online status does not matter.

[Moveon]

USCIS is usually good about updating the status. But there could be some applications 5% - 10% where the status never updates. Could be something manual that the officer needs to trigger which never got triggered. At this point, I would not hold out hope for a status change for your i140 application from nearly 2 years ago. Anyways, now that you have your physical copies, the online status does not matter.

I recall that my I-140 status updated a couple of days after we received the paper copies in 2010 . The lawyer said that it would not matter as long as we had the paper copies, but anyway after 2-3 days updated online.

[bones20]

The process per my understanding:
1. Stay with current employer till I-140 downgrade approve. I do not want to risk rejection and/or RFE situation with I-140.
2. Once I-140 approved and offer details with new employer finalized, apply I-485 J for change of job
3. Once I-485J approved, resign from current employer and join new job

Could the experts please chime in if my understanding of the process is correct? What are the risks of joining new employer on EAD and let go of H1-B?

Thank you.

I am no expert but you can switch job immediately once the below conditions are met:
1. i-140 approved
2. i-485 pending for more than 180 days
3. new job in similar category.
i-485j can be filed post joining or if/once there is an rfe or not filed at all (should be carried along at the time of interview)

Risks of abandoning H1b:
1. if for whatever reason, your i-485 gets declined, you will immediately fall out of status

[moonlight]

I am no expert but you can switch job immediately once the below conditions are met:
1. i-140 approved
2. i-485 pending for more than 180 days
3. new job in similar category.
i-485j can be filed post joining or if/once there is an rfe or not filed at all (should be carried along at the time of interview)

Risks of abandoning H1b:
1. if for whatever reason, your i-485 gets declined, you will immediately fall out of status

Another risk to keep in mind...
2. Nowadays EAD renewal takes more than 6 months. When GC is not received and EAD renewal application is pending till its expiration; you will not be able to work after expiration. Though your status will be still legal.

[mitul75]

Another risk to keep in mind...
2. Nowadays EAD renewal takes more than 6 months. When GC is not received and EAD renewal application is pending till its expiration; you will not be able to work after expiration. Though your status will be still legal.

Actually this is not true for people with I-485 pending status (c-09, AoS category). As long as you have filed your EAD renewal form I-765 before it expires, it gets renewed automatically for another 180 days. All you have to show to the authorities is the I-765 receipt notice. I have firsthand experience of this a couple years back. In certain states, your DL can also be extended using this rule. Please check with your local DMV.

https://www.uscis.gov/i-9-central/fo...-circumstances

[longwaitgigu]

This post is for information
Couple of weeks ago, I had asked question about L2 EAD EXPIRING( march 9) of one of our friend.
His ead is approved ( april 1)
It seems the lawyer had contacted uscis officer and he got biometric appointment and ead approved in 3 days.
Note- he works for company which is involved in research and manufacturing covaid vaccine and company urged uscis for approval of his ead

[aGCHopefull]

Actually this is not true for people with I-485 pending status (c-09, AoS category). As long as you have filed your EAD renewal form I-765 before it expires, it gets renewed automatically for another 180 days. All you have to show to the authorities is the I-765 receipt notice. I have firsthand experience of this a couple years back. Your DL can also be extended using this rule.

https://www.uscis.gov/i-9-central/fo...-circumstances

While you are correct about auto extension of EAD for 180 days, I am not sure on DL part though. Can that be extended for 180 days as well? I see you are in NJ, does NJ DMV allow that? If so what documents are needed? Could you please confirm and provide details?

[Transformer]

Your DL can also be extended using this rule.

Agree with you on everything but DL part. Every state's DMV handles DL extension differently so we can't generalize that.

[mitul75]

While you are correct about auto extension of EAD for 180 days, I am not sure on DL part though. Can that be extended for 180 days as well? I see you are in NJ, does NJ DMV allow that? If so what documents are needed? Could you please confirm and provide details?

In NJ they allow extension based on I-765 receipt - again this is from firsthand experience. The agent at the front desk may not recognize the document, but if you insist on speaking to a supervisor, they acknowledge the ruling and accept it as a valid document.

You will need you social security card, foreign passport, expired EAD card, and the I-765 receipt notice from USCIS. You may also want to take a printout of USCIS ruling that I shared on my previous post.

[mitul75]

Agree. Updated my last post with clarification.

[maverick2010]

Friends,

Quick question regarding ASC fingerprinting and FBI check. Will the FBI check happen right after ASC fingerprinting is taken or will it happen when officer picks up the case finally to adjudicate?

Thanks

EB2-I; PD: 09/2010

[getsaby]

Yes, we are also on same boat FP applied on February 9, 2021 to form I-485, filed AOS first time on 10/21/2020, NBC is working on our case.

[letmesee]

Got my FP notice 2 weeks from now. I have not submitted medicals along with I485. I'm expecting my date to be current in next months bulletin. Does anyone have an idea on how long does it take to get an medical RFE once date becomes current. Reason is I'm planning an overseas trip once I have AP in hand but do not wanna miss out to responding to medical rfe as soon as I get it.

[getsaby]

They are giving 3 months to respond to a Medical RFE and also based on the discussion with my lawyer you can extend it by another 2 months.
We are also waiting for Medical RFE for dependent filed on 10/22/2020, FP applied on February 9, 2021 to form I-485, filed AOS first time with NBC.