I expect around 4-5 months for EB2I and 2-3 months for EB3I.Originally Posted by krnashvom8
I expect around 4-5 months for EB2I and 2-3 months for EB3I.
I "feel":
May Bulletin: EB2 = 09/01 (+4 Months)
June Bulletin: EB2 = 12/01 (+3 Months)
July Bulletin: EB2 = 02/01 (+2 Months)
Aug Bulletin: EB2 = 05/01 (+3 Months)
Sep Bulletin: EB2 = 06/15 (+6 Weeks) - based on downgrades to EB3
I am EB2 Nov'2010, so focussing only on EB2.
Again, no number heres - just intuition.
Predictions could become really messy in the near future. By end of FY2021, I wouldn't be surprised to see FAD in late 2012 (even though going strictly by the numbers it is not expected to reach 2012). CO could just advance the dates in order to capture applications that are pre-adjudicated. Remember that all applications are not created equal and so their processing speeds would depend on myriad of factors like the application itself or the Adjudicating Officer or Service Center etc. EB3 could get vertical spillover too. Yes you heard it right. @Spec had a very informative post regarding EB3 numbers of South Korea and Philippines and how they got more than their share of 2800 GCs in EB3. With the same logic, if there are not many pre-adjudicated cases in EB2 they could use up the numbers in EB3. So all in all it's going to be an interesting few months if USCIS shows the right intent.
Last edited by vsivarama; 03-29-2021 at 09:55 AM.
What's the point of dates moving to 2011/12 when USCIS can't even process November 2009 candidates?
That's not a DOS problem, It's USCIS problem. One very good thing, I can think off is that a lot of kids can be saved from aging out.
Good point vsivarama . Lot of kids age locked with that even though Zig zag or random GC allocation happens, hoping that FAD retrogression wont unlock kids age.
thats the benefit, retrogression does NOT unlock kids age. Once FAD becomes current for your priority date, from the first of that month, your child's age is locked.
The point is the kids with non US passport will be protected under CSPA if the final dates are current. It is a big deal for a lot of people waiting.
PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21
Indeed! One of those people is me!!
Eb2 I had about 30,000 approved 140's till May 2011, according to the tweet shared by David Bier.
That was approximately the total number of Eb1 140 approved from India in 2020 March, which took a year to clear.
However the dependent demand for E2 I will be less than Eb1, which means the chances of covering the same numbers in 6 months is possible for EB2.
PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21
going by what CO said, EB2/3 I FAD will be near the FD by Sep 2021...i am not sure how EB3I FAD can reach Jan 1 2014 in next 5 months..am i missing something here....
Last edited by iamdeb; 03-29-2021 at 11:46 AM. Reason: typo
EB3 I Final dates had jumped from January 07 to January 09 from March 2018 bulletin to August 2018. A similar or better movement can happen from May 2021 to September 2021 if we take CO's words at face value.
PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21
yes even considering that jump, it was for 2 years from Jan 07 to Jan 09...here we are talking about more than 3 years from Sep 1 2010 to Jan 1 2014.........
In the same video you probably also heard Charlie say that he has no visibility to downgrade numbers. So absent that information it's only correct of him to assume FAD will catch up with FD in EB3. Once he gets the demand for downgrade, he will probably readjust his forecast. He is making prediction based on current facts on the ground. Once they change his prediction will change.
My PD is 22/Sep/2016 currently EB2 India. when can i expect my PD to be come current in both EB2 & EB3 India please?
I completely agree with you on this. Based on the number of downgrades, I would expect EB3I FAD to end up somewhere in early-mid 2012 even if USCIS doesn't waste lot of visas.
Your guess is as good as mine. Honestly you will be lucky to be current anytime in the next 3-5 years. This does not do you any good since it is pretty vague but you would be lucky to have your green card by 2025.
NSC:EB2 India, Priority Date:05/27/09, ND:03/08/12, NRD:03/14/12
For the last 5 months, consulates are averaging about 300 visas every month. Based on Spec's post, Consulates can churn out 18,000 approvals on average every month on normal working conditions. We might see an even better windfall for EB in 2022 with total numbers more than 300,000 if the above pattern continues at consulates for the next 6 months.
With no respite to pandemic in lot of parts around the world, there are chances that spillover can be even more than 200,000 for FY 2022
With that kind of numbers in the horizon, I think CO will be pushing the EB3 numbers to December 2013 before August 2021. All the downgraded people are ready to be pre adjudicated within a month.
The only people now we have to worry is the people who did not downgrade in October 2020, attempts to downgrade now when final dates pass their EB2 date, even though there are signs their numbers are good enough to be covered this FY.
PD: EB3-I 24 Feb-2011
I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS : 19 MAR 21 RFE : 13 APR 21 RFER : 14 MAY 21 EAD APPROVED : 17 JULY 21
I-485 Interview and Approval : 15 DEC 21 CARD Received : 23 DEC 21
As some info is missing, I assume that you are in EB2. When did you file I485 and has 180 days passed after the application was received by USCIS? Then only you can talk about AC21.
LPR Since 07MAY2021
Didn't mean to burst any bubble rather take me as a voice of practicality here. Once EB3 FAD crosses May 2011 expect the lane traffic to completely flip b/w EB2 to EB3 due to downgrades. I would guess both EB2 and EB3 finish off this September with no more than 6 months difference in the FAD (EB3 ahead of EB2 by 6 months or so) based on demand data accounting for downgrades. With 10-15% visa wastage you can expect - EB2 @ somewhere b/w Jan-May 2011 and EB3 @ somewhere between June-Sep 2011 come this September 2021.
Last edited by Zenzone; 03-29-2021 at 04:05 PM.
Hello,
Is this not going to be the case? - EB3 FAD to become 01/Jan/2014 or 2015? over the next 5 years? because they already forecasted how many number of applications they can accept.
@aceman, @visvarama can you please provide an answer for my question above?
So you are predicting the FAD. will the dates not move further in Oct/2021? is it correct that there will be another wave of clearance in Oct/2021? does it result in further movement of the FAD of EB3 and/or EB2 ?
Just trying to understand what is the point then to ask people with PD of 01/Jan/2015 to apply and to only process applications until June-Sep 2011?
Last edited by immif4t; 03-29-2021 at 04:21 PM.
This may seem like a cop-out, but here is my take: We know we are getting 120k extra numbers in FY2021 for EB and the same or likely a lot more than that for FY2022. Since you are so far out (9/2016), it may be Oct 2022 before there can be any prediction for your date. By then there will be two cycles of massive spillover history and more importantly data on if and how many spillover numbers were wasted by USCIS. There were huge I-140 numbers in the intervening years between 2010/11 and 2016 so absent any legislation like not counting dependents or recapture, it may be some time to be honest. 2015-2016 was bonkers.
Take a look at these charts: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q1_Q2.pdf
GC Approved 7/29/2021
2 cents is EB3 will be ahead of EB2 only for couple of bulletins more......currently EB2I is behind EB3I by only 4 months and the in the April bulletin Eb2 moved ahead by 3.5 months and closed some of the gap....
as per the CO he doesn't have visibility into the downgrades yet ....but he also said that he was slowly seeing those downgrades which were filed in Oct or early Nov last year....my gut feeling is that EB2 will catch up with EB3 in the next 2 bulletins and stay ahead of EB2 from then onwards as all the downgrades would have hit the database by then.....
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