EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[jimmys]

I don't know. If you proactively send, is it sure they ignore the form? I have heard attorney's claiming wait for RFE because your file might be in transit, but in his case it is drop dead like a stone at TSC.
If you don't want to waste $500, send a file marked medicals with blank papers in it. If USCIS is serious they may come back and say the papers are blank, and at that time send the correct file.

Give advice like this and blame USCIS for not working efficiently? Why don't you wait for USCIS RFE before burdening them with unnecessary paperwork that they didn't ask for? I think after I-485 filing the USCIS should reject anything that's sent voluntarily including I-485J.

[msbmsb]

I have a question which I hope someone can answer:
My PD is June 2010. I applied for I-485 in Oct 2020 and have received our EAD/AP combo card in Jan 2021 with one year validity so its valid until Jan 2022.
My H1B is valid until June 2021 (as is my drivers license) and my company still has not filed for an extension as we are waiting for the next bulletin to see where the Final Action Date lands. Hoping that it crosses June 2010.

We are in Texas. Do you know what documents the DOT will need to renew our license in June? Will the EAD/AP card be ok? If anyone of you is in Texas what have you done to renew TX drivers license?

I don't know if there is a straight answer .. not sure if you can present the EAD while on H1. If you can, you may be able to renew the DL till Jan.


If not, you may be able to present the H1 renewal filing to get a one year extension.

If you have an approved H1 or switch to EAD or have the GC, then you can use those

Keep in mind, DPS may trigger a secondary verification, so don't wait untill the last minute to renew.

And DPS is now appointment only, so you need to schedule it well in time.

I think your best bet is to go talk to DPS, go to a mega center as you may be able to get an appointment sooner

[vsivarama]

I have a question which I hope someone can answer:
My PD is June 2010. I applied for I-485 in Oct 2020 and have received our EAD/AP combo card in Jan 2021 with one year validity so its valid until Jan 2022.
My H1B is valid until June 2021 (as is my drivers license) and my company still has not filed for an extension as we are waiting for the next bulletin to see where the Final Action Date lands. Hoping that it crosses June 2010.

We are in Texas. Do you know what documents the DOT will need to renew our license in June? Will the EAD/AP card be ok? If anyone of you is in Texas what have you done to renew TX drivers license?

EAD/AP should be fine even if your are on H1b. You present H1 to prove that you are here in legal status. They are not the least bit interested in your work authorization. Unfortunately there is no card issued to prove that you are pending AOS (which is a legal status that allows a person to stay in US). So instead you can use your EAD even if you are not using your EAD for work authorization.

[ak7419]

Is anyone aware of OVP*****NSC tickets? Tier 2 agent opened this service request ticket for me and informed that NSC will respond directly. Is anyone familiar with these kinds of tickets?

[AceMan]

Give advice like this and blame USCIS for not working efficiently? Why don't you wait for USCIS RFE before burdening them with unnecessary paperwork that they didn't ask for? I think after I-485 filing the USCIS should reject anything that's sent voluntarily including I-485J.

It is 6 months since that person is current. With people downgrading, applying for frivolous premium processing for 140 upgrade when it is a real waste of time, I gave a sensible advice to a person to send a decoy to trigger or manufacture the correct response for him.

It is like the Aamir khan advice to millimeter in the movie 3 idiots. Go sit in any class to learn. He don?t need to spend any money other than postage, even that if he uses his companies fedex/ups code it becomes free.

I wanted USCiS to stop asking for medicals like your wish. We both know it?s not happening.

[rsnake]

Unfortunately there is no card issued to prove that you are pending AOS (which is a legal status that allows a person to stay in US). So instead you can use your EAD even if you are not using your EAD for work authorization.

If you read the PDF I posted, it shows that the Texas DMV is asking for the receipt notice for the I-485 as proof of pending AOS. Why does it matter if it's a card or a document?

[Djidondon]

You need to view this in supply and demand economics model. Current FY2021 they have generated the demand for the supply they got and will move dates till their supply is exhausted by sept 2021. If CO has visibility to how many visas are wasted this FY before hand (before publishing the Oct VB), then he will adjust the dates to generate the new demand keeping in mind the wasted visas. So it basically depends on the visibility CO has. The more visibility he has, the more he can precisely move FD. If he has zero visibility then of course he will be forced to generate demand for an additional let's say 135k SO visa numbers.

Meaning, if the final action dates for EB3I move 3 years from Jan 2010 ( oct visa bulletin 2020 ) until Dec 2013 before end of fiscal year 2021 September, does that factor to have a forward movement in EB3i filling dates Chart B to move forward for 3 years from Jan 01 2014 to Jan 01 2017 for example?

If the final action doesn?t move forward, will CO not generate demand for additional 135k SO visa numbers and not move the EB3I filling dates ?

[rsnake]

date movement is based on visa availabilty not processing speed. So, the dates will move whether or not USCIS issues the visas. The USCIS will just increase processing time. They are already showing 1-3 years processing time for the I-485. Not sure they can increase the lower limit beyond 1 year though. If they do, what does the visa availabilty for date movement even mean, or for that matter having two dates and charts A and B. Someone is bound to challenge the legal basis of the whole trainwreck of a visa bulletin at that point.

This doesn't make sense to me. If dates are advanced without visas getting processed, then there is a big risk of a scenario where some people with earlier priority dates might get backlogged and retrogressed while some people with much newer priority dates get greened. I guess this scenario is better than wasted visas but might be in the mind of CO.

[Moveon]

The link you sent is only for AC21 provision. It's not after GC.

After GC, it's still a grey area. That's where you go with attorney's advice. 6-12 months is considered enough time by most attorneys.
If you leave as soon as you receive your GC then you need to substantiate it to USCIS during N-400 if a need arises. So staying with your employer at least for 6 months is sorta future proof. Leaving earlier than that, you need to be prepared if USCIS asks any questions during N-400.

https://www.murthy.com/2019/07/29/ch...ed-green-card/

And, several others give you the same advice. My attorney recommends at least 6 months.

That is exactly my point . If they have not written it then you should get the benefit of doubt if they ever ask . I still don't understand why lawyers believe 6 months is OK ? Why not 2 years ? Anyway we all have our own interpretations and accept what we feel is the safest option.
If they ever wanted to implement it , then employers should be reporting that to the USCIS.
N-400 is after 5 years , so they can't go back more than 5 years even if the 6 month rule holds.
Like I said before "its your career , your life". Do what can make you sleep well at night . For me grabbing an opportunity (after my own analysis) vs going with someone's interpretation , I have always picked the former .

[1312011_eb2I]

Fundamentally, GC is applied by an employer based on bonafide basis in anticipation when GC is given to an employee, he/she is expected to work for the employer.
On the other hand, It is illegal to force someone to work for an employer and contract can be canceled by either of the party at anytime.
In earlier days ( and these days as well) , first part was misused by some (so called WITCH) companies to extract money from employees.
These companies modus operandi was to make money by sponsoring GC only and not by providing legit employment and some lawyers (without saying the names) helped them in the game, I know few cases where USCIS asked the people during the (citizenship) interview if they worked for the sponsored employer or not , but I have not seen denial if they were honest.
Point is, if your sponsor is legit, your paper work is legal. No illegal stuff is involved, you can join any company at anytime ( if both parties agree) regardless you on H1,GC or EAD.

[vsivarama]

Meaning, if the final action dates for EB3I move 3 years from Jan 2010 ( oct visa bulletin 2020 ) until Dec 2013 before end of fiscal year 2021 September, does that factor to have a forward movement in EB3i filling dates Chart B to move forward for 3 years from Jan 01 2014 to Jan 01 2017 for example?

If the final action doesn?t move forward, will CO not generate demand for additional 135k SO visa numbers and not move the EB3I filling dates ?

That has been the historical trend. If CO had moved FD regardless of existing demand a lot of folks from 2010 and 2011 would have been able to file AOS over the last few years.

[fastforward]

Apologies if this is a repeated question. Any predictions on the filing date for FY22. My PD is Oct 2019. I've seen predictions ranging from 2016 to 2019. Thinking if I should stick with my current employer till September to see how the bulletin looks or just leave. Is there even a slim chance of filing 485 for me?

Thanks

[koolkatz]

Hello folks,

I stumbled upon this forum through a link from another forum and was reading the last few pages of posts and found the discussion very refreshing. Found the advice from gurus/pandits/senseis on this forum very helpful. After reading I realized a few mistakes I have done due to not knowing the intricacies of immigration system for which I paid with slower career growth.

About myself: Have priority date of Nov 2012 in EB2-I. Had I-140 approved from previous employer and was with them for 9 years but due to various reasons I changed jobs around 3 years ago. New employer is a large well-known tech company and they agreed to file GC only around late last year for me. So, I missed the boat of Oct-Dec 2020 to downgrade to EB3-I and get EAD since I changed jobs and didn't have a PERM/I-140 ready with new employer. I've submitted all the paperwork for GC a couple of months ago and the company's lawyer said that they will file PERM using batch processing next month (they've already done recruitment phase if I am not mistaken). They said will take around 4-5 months for processing which would bring me to Sept/Oct 2021.

I saw the updates on various forums and predictions on websites and youtube video where CO answered questions. I know that accurate data is not available and it depends on how many cases are processed by USCIS. But I wanted to ask a question. My question is that come Oct 2021 i.e. start of FY2022, how likely is USCIS to use filing dates for EB2-I and EB3-I and open the window like they did for 3 months in last calendar year, allowing people to file I-485 at least for the month of Oct 2021? Is there hope for that OR it really depends on the USCIS processing speeds and even for beginning of fiscal year when new numbers come into play it may be unlikely.

My other question is that assuming if the opportunity does come up in Oct 2021, and my company's lawyer files for concurrent I-140 + I-485, since they will have a new PERM approved, could they use premium processing (PP)? I don't expect FAD to be current so not hoping for GC any time soon but would PP help me and my spouse the EAD quickly?

Thanks in advance!

[2Be_H1B_Or_Not_2B]

I just joined this group and this is my first port.. I am just so mad at myself for not finding this forum sooner.
I went through some of the posts. THANK YOU to Q and other frequent collaborators for your great work..

My Question:
My PD is 2011 Jan 14th. I switched jobs recently and my PERM will be approved in June this year AND I am guessing my PD will be current at the same time.
I have never ever applied EAD/AC21 etc.
So, when my PERM is approved, should I bypass EAD/AC21 etc and file for I-140 and I-485 only.
If I do that, how many months will it take to get the Greeeeeeeeen card in my hands?

[2Be_H1B_Or_Not_2B]

Hello,
I just joined this amazing forum..
Quick Q: My PD will be current in June this year AND my latest PERM will also be approved at the same time.
Is it a good idea to not file the EAD and file just the I-485? If I do that, how long will it take to get the GC to hand (approximately)?

[2Be_H1B_Or_Not_2B]

I tried posting a couple of times to this forum.. My posts are not going through. Hope this makes it..

Hello,
I just joined this amazing forum..
Quick Q: My PD will be current in June this year AND my latest PERM will also be approved at the same time.
Is it a good idea to not file the EAD and file just the I-485? If I do that, how long will it take to get the GC to hand (approximately)?

[Djidondon]

Apologies if this is a repeated question. Any predictions on the filing date for FY22. My PD is Oct 2019. I've seen predictions ranging from 2016 to 2019. Thinking if I should stick with my current employer till September to see how the bulletin looks or just leave. Is there even a slim chance of filing 485 for me?

Thanks

Honestly your chances are none for October 2019 PD for fiscal year 2022

[android09]

Hello,
I just joined this amazing forum..
Quick Q: My PD will be current in June this year AND my latest PERM will also be approved at the same time.
Is it a good idea to not file the EAD and file just the I-485? If I do that, how long will it take to get the GC to hand (approximately)?

The expectation is Jan 2011 will be current soon. Just because dates are current does not mean you will get your green card right away. You will still need to provide biometrics. When they collect biometrics, its for 765(if applied) and 485. If for some reason there is a processing delay(average processing time is about 12 months for 485. Perhaps more now given the number of cases), and you need to travel out of the country or switch jobs, having an EAD is beneficial. It's not going to cost you anything extra to file(besides lawyer time). I'd suggest you file 765 and 131 as well just as backup. Whether or not you utilize is entirely upto you.

[2Be_H1B_Or_Not_2B]

The expectation is Jan 2011 will be current soon. Just because dates are current does not mean you will get your green card right away. You will still need to provide biometrics. When they collect biometrics, its for 765(if applied) and 485. If for some reason there is a processing delay(average processing time is about 12 months for 485. Perhaps more now given the number of cases), and you need to travel out of the country or switch jobs, having an EAD is beneficial. It's not going to cost you anything extra to file(besides lawyer time). I'd suggest you file 765 and 131 as well just as backup. Whether or not you utilize is entirely upto you.

Thank you android09 for the reply.

[Moveon]

Apologies if this is a repeated question. Any predictions on the filing date for FY22. My PD is Oct 2019. I've seen predictions ranging from 2016 to 2019. Thinking if I should stick with my current employer till September to see how the bulletin looks or just leave. Is there even a slim chance of filing 485 for me?

Thanks

Yes . Even with immigration reform and Visa recaptures (will take a miracle indeed), Oct 2019 India will not get current for a few years . Jump dude.

[AlmostThere]

People who applied in 2012 and replied to RFE in Dec/Jan. I would be surprised if these cases are not pre adjudicated already (at least majority of them). It's like a blackhole.

I recently checked with manager and he confirmed there won't be salary raise after i get GC , my bank told me mortgage would be the same and my wife is planning to visit India at least twice a year (instead of once a year) once we have GC. So there is that.

Well here is this too .... a) Ask your manager that the CTC(cost to company) + Risk will decrease , so not immediately but in the next appraisal cycle you should get a higher raise, I have seen this. b) Mortgage probably not, but yeah fyi.. BofA- Merrill lynch does NOT offer trading account to H1B's, but they do for GC c) ask your mother-in-law how happy she will be meeting her daughter twice a year.... As Mastercard Ad says somethings are "Priceless".

[vsivarama]

I saw the updates on various forums and predictions on websites and youtube video where CO answered questions. I know that accurate data is not available and it depends on how many cases are processed by USCIS. But I wanted to ask a question. My question is that come Oct 2021 i.e. start of FY2022, how likely is USCIS to use filing dates for EB2-I and EB3-I and open the window like they did for 3 months in last calendar year, allowing people to file I-485 at least for the month of Oct 2021? Is there hope for that OR it really depends on the USCIS processing speeds and even for beginning of fiscal year when new numbers come into play it may be unlikely.

Chances are pretty high that USCIS will open up filing dates again in October. The only reason I see them not to do it would be if the below two things ring true i) They waste visas on an astronomical scale AND ii) They got way more applications than expected when they opened the gates last year. Your real race will be to get your PERM approved by oct/Nov/Dec timeframe. Even without that there is still hope for you. Even with USCIS wasting 30% of GC numbers this year and next year the FAD could still be current for your PD in both EB2 and EB3 by end of FY2022.

My other question is that assuming if the opportunity does come up in Oct 2021, and my company's lawyer files for concurrent I-140 + I-485, since they will have a new PERM approved, could they use premium processing (PP)? I don't expect FAD to be current so not hoping for GC any time soon but would PP help me and my spouse the EAD quickly?

Thanks in advance!

They most definitely can use PP while filing your i140 application because they have the original copy of your PERM. EAD is no way related to PP or i140 and so it will take it's own sweet time. Your i140 does NOT need to be approved to get your EAD/AP. It's a benefit you get on account of filing i485. All the best!!

[maduraikaran]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPfalhY8vPY

As per above video, for the next few months, EB2IC movement will be on par or better than March/April 2021

[krnashvom8]

What is the prediction for next (May) VB for EB2I FAD movement given CO's March 17th Youtube "Chat with Charlie"? Just wanted to gauge what is the range you guys think the FAD will move to.

[qesehmk]

Friends - to keep this thread for its original purpose - I have moved some of the recent application status related discussion to a new thread. Here is the link. you can also access it from navigation bar.
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ication-Status

If threads stick to their purpose then it helps everybody. So please follow this discipline.