EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[MidWestMaverick]

AceMan, trying to understand your statement - assuming another 100K+ spillover is available in FY22, and with minimal downgrades, where do you think EB-I will end up? (I guess EB2 and EB3 India will have same/similar FA dates in the future)

[LeoAugust]

2021 FY would be a windfall year like never before. We had 261,000 visas in EB where a huge majority will be available for Eb India due to the continued covid situation. EB1 India had more than 30 K approved 140's one year back. All of them appeared to be cleared. A similar numbers applied to EB2 has the potential for dates till May 2011 this FY.

For 2022 FY, you have to count the embassies reopening and the demand it going to bring in. If you have covid conditions of now still hanging on till early 2022, EB2 I can progress max to 2013 or 2014 depending on how many downgraded.

Thanks. If we get similar or more for FY22 on OCT VB do you see a chance for Eb2/3 touching 2013-Dec... as Final action date...

[LeoAugust]

We can say definitively probably around end of April.

Thanks. Can I please ask how much guesstimate SO will allow EB2/3 to reach Dec-2013...?

[AceMan]

EB1 is expected to be current till October 2022 for the entire world. Whatever happens beyond that depends on how the economy of the US moves over next 18 months.

[AceMan]

Thanks. If we get similar or more for FY22 on OCT VB do you see a chance for Eb2/3 touching 2013-Dec... as Final action date...

I want to see the usage for 3rd and 4th quarter of 2021 before going to FY22 as it will have the cascading effect.

[qesehmk]

Thanks. Can I please ask how much guesstimate SO will allow EB2/3 to reach Dec-2013...?

Sorry I no longer do any of these calculations manually.

Others on the forum do manual calculations. Perhaps they can answer.

[Moveon]

Its not a promotion but a lateral move.

As I said it should not be any issue as long as it is within the same org. Eg One Engineering VP's org to another . As long as you/company can keep the job description within what was filed for the I-140 you are safe . Its very easy when you are in the same company for two reasons
1. The RFE if ever issued typically asks for a new Supp-J only if you changed employers . In your case you are in the same company, so you will not have to respond to it .
2. The USCIS realizes that our job functions cannot be the same for years at end just because we were born in India. Your perm.I-140 I am sure was was filed with a generic description that would give you the flexibility to switch fields . You just need 50% overlap in the worst case .

Go for it man. Don't live in fear.

[mr00us]

Thanks. If we get similar or more for FY22 on OCT VB do you see a chance for Eb2/3 touching 2013-Dec... as Final action date...

Here is what I presume would be the status at the end of FY2021. I will visit back to see how close these back of the napkin calculations are

With down port as 20% in 2010
and
3 down port scenarios- 20%, 25% and 30% in 2011

----------------------------------------|-------|------20%----------25-------------30--------|-----------------
EB3 prediction ( by end of fy2021) 1-May-11 * 15-Apr-11 * 15-MAr-11
EB2 prediction ( by end of fy2021) 1-May-11 * 15-May-11 * 1-Jun-11
----------------------------------------|-------|-----------------------|----------------------------------------
* Above analysis does not take for account any visa wasted by USICS
* This is without adding any spillover from EB1
* For every 1000 spillover from add 15 days to EB2

[ak7419]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/0...on-plan-473475

"A dismal whip count came back this week showing House leaders don’t yet have the votes to pass the bill on the floor."

"Top House Democrats have promised to put key immigration bills on the floor this month — but President Joe Biden’s sweeping overhaul won’t be one of them."

"So now Democrats are moving ahead with an alternative plan: Move the Biden bill through committee while the full House votes on more targeted immigration legislation that already enjoys broad caucus support."

"Democrats were already planning to take up some of their most popular immigration proposals in the coming weeks — one to protect the undocumented population known as Dreamers and another to reform the system for farmworkers. Both have bipartisan support, including strong backing from the CHC and CPC, and could soon see floor votes in the Senate."

[LeoAugust]

Here is what I presume would be the status at the end of FY2021. I will visit back to see how close these back of the napkin calculations are

With down port as 20% in 2010
and
3 down port scenarios- 20%, 25% and 30% in 2011

----------------------------------------|-------|------20%----------25-------------30--------|-----------------
EB3 prediction ( by end of fy2021) 1-May-11 * 15-Apr-11 * 15-MAr-11
EB2 prediction ( by end of fy2021) 1-May-11 * 15-May-11 * 1-Jun-11
----------------------------------------|-------|-----------------------|----------------------------------------
* Above analysis does not take for account any visa wasted by USICS
* This is without adding any spillover from EB1
* For every 1000 spillover from add 15 days to EB2

Thanks. Close to 40-50K applications downgraded from Eb2-EB3 for SRC. Not sure how they are distributed across 2010/11/12/13/14 and some of the applications gone to Nebraska. Not sure if this guesstimate number brings any impact.

[H1b2006]

I want to see the usage for 3rd and 4th quarter of 2021 before going to FY22 as it will have the cascading effect.

Guys only challenge is timelines in whivh USCIS is working there are plenty of numbers available in Q3, q4 in 2021 and Q3,Q4 2022.

If receipting , biometrics, interview waiver is not done usage will be less in 2021. Hope it will be high.in 2022 q3,q4.

[H1b2006]

If they can allocate numbers and issue GC 6months later wastage will be less.

[getsaby]

Hello

Does any one know, is there a time limit on how long we can keep signed I693 form with us.

[vsivarama]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/0...on-plan-473475

"A dismal whip count came back this week showing House leaders don?t yet have the votes to pass the bill on the floor."

"Top House Democrats have promised to put key immigration bills on the floor this month ? but President Joe Biden?s sweeping overhaul won?t be one of them."

"So now Democrats are moving ahead with an alternative plan: Move the Biden bill through committee while the full House votes on more targeted immigration legislation that already enjoys broad caucus support."

"Democrats were already planning to take up some of their most popular immigration proposals in the coming weeks ? one to protect the undocumented population known as Dreamers and another to reform the system for farmworkers. Both have bipartisan support, including strong backing from the CHC and CPC, and could soon see floor votes in the Senate."

I would not hold out hope for any sweeping immigration reforms. Pretty early into the Biden administration they have showed that they fold pretty easily on the very few things they promised (apparent by Covid relief bill). The $2000 check became $1400, to be sent out immediately became 3-4 months from taking charge, additional means testing included which further restricts who can avail the money. $15 minimum wage gone for good. This gives a pretty good picture as to how immigration will be handled. It's on us to keep up the pressure.

[raradhya]

Hello

Does any one know, is there a time limit on how long we can keep signed I693 form with us.

If you are submitting with in 60 days of the I-485 filing then its valid for 2 years. otherwise each subsequent I-693 is valid for 1 year from the Surgeon's signature

[idliman]

If you are submitting with in 60 days of the I-485 filing then its valid for 2 years. otherwise each subsequent I-693 is valid for 1 year from the Surgeon's signature

Per USCIS Policy Manual, if you submit I-693 after 01NOV2018, it is valid for 2 years. If you submitted before 01NOV2018, it is expired as of now.

Form I-693 Submitted to USCIS on or After November 1, 2018

When did civil surgeon sign?	I-693 retains evidentiary value through
No more than 60 days before applicant filed underlying benefit application with USCIS	2 years from date civil surgeon signed I-693
After applicant filed benefit application with USCIS	2 years from date civil surgeon signed I-693
More than 60 days before applicant filed benefit application with USCIS	N/A ? I-693 not valid at time applicant submits I-693 to USCIS

[rocketfast]

Looks like guys at the below link are crawling the USCIS status pages to get data. For e.g., according to them, for 21% of the I-485 cases applied in October 2020, fingerprints have been applied. And for cases applied in Jan 2020, only 20% have gotten their green cards - which feels pretty low.

https://www.greencardly.com/#/I-485

[H1b2006]

Guys i worked for a WITCH company who applied GC in EB2 Feb 11,2011 pd with I140 approved in 2011. If EB2 goes past 2011 Feb if WITCH company is willing to take me back, what are the documents i would need from them(cts) to apply I485, if my dates become current say in 3-4 visa bulletins.

[rabp77]

Thanks. Can I please ask how much guesstimate SO will allow EB2/3 to reach Dec-2013...?

I would think we would need two things for that to happen before oct-2022
- utilization of spill over for FY2021 should be complete or close to complete. We will likely know about this only after Oct-2021.
- Spill over for 2022 should be along simlar lines as the spill over we saw for Fy2021. This is probable, but we will need to wait a bit to get confirmed numbers after Oct 2021.

So in short, although its possible for dates to reach Dec2013 by Sept 2022, we will have much more clarity about this sometime in Oct 2021.

I would think EB2 likely is going to move faster once the FAD reaches july 2011, as most people would be in EB3 queue after that. Although theoretically dates should move together, we have rarely seen that happen in the past, because many people are unwilling/unable to switch between lines for various reason.

[phillygc]

Hello,

PD EB2 June 2011, Unable to file AOS, due to perm approval pending. Hoping to get approval in next 2-3 months. Also hope to file AOS by Oct 21 in any one category, If they allow filing dates. some one advised to ask for 2 140 applications.. My attorney goes by book of rules, Just need to be sure if its valid ask. also if its make sense to file at EB3 or take chance and wait for Eb2. I know lot of unknowns, we get clear idea after 3-4 months how dates progress. typical FOMO syndrome. I want other's opinion. how they would think and plan out in this scenario.. Inputs or comments are appreciated. thanks.

[H1b2006]

Guys i worked for a WITCH company who applied GC in EB2 Feb 11,2011 pd with I140 approved in 2011. If EB2 goes past 2011 Feb if WITCH company is willing to take me back, what are the documents i would need from them(cts) to apply I485, if my dates become current say in 3-4 visa bulletins.

Guys any update on this if old employer -Employer A,is ready to giv 485J
Can the beneficiary file himself. How will you justify why did you left Employer A before.

[incredible]

Guys any update on this if old employer -Employer A,is ready to giv 485J
Can the beneficiary file himself. How will you justify why did you left Employer A before.

Some one might have replied already in the past. Once you get the employer part of the 485J, you can fill the rest and file yourself. But my advise would be to go through an attorney. If your dates are close to be current or current, no point looking for filing as Attorney may probably support you in case any questions asked, etc.

[H1b2006]

Okay Thank you.

[H1b2006]

Some one might have replied already in the past. Once you get the employer part of the 485J, you can fill the rest and file yourself. But my advise would be to go through an attorney. If your dates are close to be current or current, no point looking for filing as Attorney may probably support you in case any questions asked, etc.

When my old employer gives I485 J and when i file it do i need to start working for Employer A soon after filing or after getting the GC?

do i need to work at the work location as perm filed location or can i work at any work location.

[gcracer]

Guys i worked for a WITCH company who applied GC in EB2 Feb 11,2011 pd with I140 approved in 2011. If EB2 goes past 2011 Feb if WITCH company is willing to take me back, what are the documents i would need from them(cts) to apply I485, if my dates become current say in 3-4 visa bulletins.

Only 485J and experience letter.