Idliman,Originally Posted by idliman
This is a gem of a post! You have outlined very realistic scenarios for Dec and Jan Bulletins. And also, very balanced view of your expectation from a different immigration friendly administration with full understanding that it may just remain a dream. Let's just hope and pray that future is better than the past.
Last edited by vedu; 10-29-2020 at 11:36 AM.
I was about to reply to that, the bulletin was materialized on October 12 as mention in the footnote, wonder why they held up for almost 2 weeks.
Department of State Publication 9514
CA/VO: October 12, 2020
Even for the last bulletin, they did this
Department of State Publication 9514
CA/VO: September 8, 2020
Last edited by getsaby; 10-29-2020 at 11:45 AM.
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EB2-I PD -> 19-Oct-2009 | EAD/AP since -> 30-Apr-2012 | GC -> 08-APR-2021
Friends,
Anyone have a metrics (only guesstimate based on previous years number) about EB3 India counselor processing demand for 2009 (June to December) and 2010.
Just curious to know , how the consulate open will impact the final action date for EB3 India. Does it make EB3I to retro-gate ?
I really feel they are resisting moving FADs as much as they can As they don’t want EB-I gain to materialize. I have a feeling they are waiting to see more demand from EB-ROW which they can issue visas first.. before moving dates for retrogressed countries
I need more data to believe in this hypothesis. Remember in September some of us were certain that this administration will NOT let ppl. to even file so much in advance and here we are! Therefore, I need a trend line of at east 4-6 month through this Fiscal to comment on the visa wastage. Right now all I see is so much uncertainty and variability with a potential of an admin. change that could be imminent. Its anybody's guess right now. Depending on whether you are a glass half full or empty person you can be living either in a false exuberance or an imminent doom world of yours.
I don't think I would jump to that conclusion. At least not yet. By accepting a large number of applicants, the stage is set to approve them quickly in case visa numbers are available at the end of fy, and all processing has been completed. Slow movement initially doesn't mean it will continue to be so for the rest of fy. In the past, pace of movement has been accelerated during the fy at times. I think there is a good probability that eb2 movement can get much faster than 3weeks per month that we saw in November.
Idliman,
I am glad that I would be able to file my AOS in Oct 2020 after a long wait so no room for disappointment. Hope my lawyer sends my AOS file tonight fingers crossed.
My perspective on rapid movement is different, may be once we go back and compare to 2018 and 2019 visa bulletins, it is a rapid movement as the dates were crawling one day or two days or none bulletin to bulletin
Occams Razor - These are Federal Govt employees who will work like a sloth. They just dont have the processing capacity (and willingness) to move things quickly. Anecdotal evidence is the amount of time it is taking to send out receipts for new filings. If you start seeing a spurt in Card Mailed on Trackitt it will be the forward indicator that dates will move "rapidly" in subsequent VB. Till then keep refreshing the visa bulletin page
SC: NSC | PD: 2nd-Oct-2009 |RD: 1-Mar-2012 |ND: 7-Mar-2012 | FP Notice: ?? | EAD/AP : ??
Spec,
Is there any technical reason for this sluggish FAD movement in EB2-3I categories? I am aware of 'other' possible reasons.
One interesting thing I have noticed is Eb1 India FAD moved 6 months. If it can maintain same speed for next couple of bulletins, we can expect it to be current by the end of 2nd quarter and Eb2 can see some long awaited spillover in the April 2021 bulletin.
Hopefully by that time Eb2 reaches possibly March 2010 and the spillover can propel the dates to December 2010.
If the Eb3 final dates did not reach that date by then, 3rd quarter of 2021 is going to be fun.
Oh btw I am expecting Biden to win and the Trump EO for EB interviews might be gone. It may result in the GC allocation faster.
Since there is no USCIS final action date mentioned, what is the Final Action Date for November 2020 for EB2 India and EB3 India ?
That election outcome might result in a push for FB immigration.
That is true. But the push mainly will be to allocate additional visas to FB by recapturing unused visa numbers. There were already quite a few bills going around which would help the doctors/essential works by granting them GCs this way. So I would not worry about FB. Dems would be shooting themselves in the foot if they touch the SO visas to EB. Politicians may be useless but not stupid.
It is my understanding that they will follow the 7% rule on the total GCs available this year (including the additional quota we received from FB) for the first three quarters as is the rule. Then in the last quarter, they will give all unused visas to backlogged countries. It may be too late by then resulting in major loss of visas. That is the reason I see EB2I moving by only 1-2 months per month and EB3I moving by 2-3 months per month for the first three quarters followed by larger movements in the last quarter.
Spec can certainly provide more surgical analysis of this and he always loves to explain the pessimistic scenarios in detail!
Last edited by vedu; 10-29-2020 at 04:31 PM.
Not sure ! I have seen people being dems before getting GC and moving to red camp the day GC arrives
Vedu, this Is what I am thinking as well. Let's wait for Spec's realistic answer ( if he chooses to reply that is).It is my understanding that they will follow the 7% rule on the total GCs available this year (including the additional quota we received from FB) for the first three quarters as is the rule. Then in the last quarter, they will give all unused visas to backlogged countries. It may be too late by then resulting in major loss of visas. That is the reason I see EB2I moving by only 1-2 months per month and EB3I moving by 2-3 months per month for the first three quarters followed by larger movements in the last quarter.
Spec can certainly provide more surgical analysis of this and he always loves to explain the pessimistic scenarios in detail!
I suppose everyone is pissed off with the Bulletin, especially the EB2-I folks . For EB2 , if we assume a backlog of ~1.5K GCs per month until April 30th 2010 , we will have about 15K GCs that they will need to issue to clear the 2012 backlog.It is my understanding that they will follow the 7% rule on the total GCs available this year (including the additional quota we received from FB) for the first three quarters as is the rule. Then in the last quarter, they will give all unused visas to backlogged countries. It may be too late by then resulting in major loss of visas. That is the reason I see EB2I moving by only 1-2 months per month and EB3I moving by 2-3 months per month for the first three quarters followed by larger movements in the last quarter.
Spec can certainly provide more surgical analysis of this and he always loves to explain the pessimistic scenarios in detail!
So with 30K extra green cards in just EB2 and moving dates by just 3 weeks , they will certainly waste GCs again as it won't go past April 2010 . This is just another stalling tactic by USCIS to prevent India from getting GCs. Who ever gets elected is not going to lift a finger for us. The 120K SO is an unintended consequence (so lets not praise anyone) and looks like they doing everything to prevent the issuance of this SO, or the most of it .
BTW for the last fiscal did they issue 144K GCs or did they waste 20K as reported ?
261k/12 months=21,791 for each month available for all countries, subdivided into each EB1/2/3 category with 28.6% and then applying 7% country quota.
Vertical = EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged
Horizontal= 121k SO / 12 months is 14580/month, EB 1/2/3 get 4170 visas per month 28.6% each category. Since, EB2I is most backlogged(as all countries are current) each month EB2I gets 4170 visas from FB Horizontal SO.
When EB1I gets current all VERTICAL SO will go to EB2I.
EB3I will be backlogged due to massive downgrades(after May2011 PD). With no vertical SO and less Horizontal SO in comparison with EB2I as other countries in EB3 Category will share FB SO as other countries does have EB3 backlog.
Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.
If Uscis intent is right, 150k out of 261k visas will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around Dec 2012 and Sep 2011 respectively by Sep 2021.
SO calculations/ predictions
261k/12 months=21,791 for each month available for all countries, subdivided into each EB1/2/3 category with 28.6% and then applying 7% country quota.
Vertical = EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged
Horizontal= 121k SO / 12 months is 14580/month, EB 1/2/3 get 4170 visas per month 28.6% each category. Since, EB2I is most backlogged(as all countries are current) each month EB2I gets 4170 visas from FB Horizontal SO.
When EB1I gets current all VERTICAL SO will go to EB2I.
EB3I will be backlogged due to massive downgrades(after May2011 PD). With no vertical SO and less Horizontal SO in comparison with EB2I as other countries in EB3 Category will share FB SO as other countries does have EB3 backlog.
Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.
If Uscis intent is right, 150k out of 261k visas will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around Dec 2012 and Sep 2011 respectively by Sep 2021.
SO calculations/ predictions
261k/12 months=21,791 for each month available for all countries, subdivided into each EB1/2/3 category with 28.6% and then applying 7% country quota.
Vertical = EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged
Horizontal= 121k SO / 12 months is 14580/month, EB 1/2/3 get 4170 visas per month 28.6% each category. Since, EB2I is most backlogged(as all countries are current) each month EB2I gets 4170 visas from FB Horizontal SO.
When EB1I gets current all VERTICAL SO will go to EB2I.
EB3I will be backlogged due to massive downgrades(after May2011 PD). With no vertical SO and less Horizontal SO in comparison with EB2I as other countries in EB3 Category will share FB SO as other countries does have EB3 backlog.
Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.
If Uscis intent is right, 150k out of 261k visas will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around Dec 2012 and Sep 2011 respectively by Sep 2021.
The only rapid movement for India was EB1. June 2018 inventory shows 1006 pending 485 EB2 I applications for September 2009. It appears to follow the pattern of processing around 700 applicants this bulletin instead of around 1700 processed for India in October. We have about 8000 more applicants in EB2 till May 2010 and if they average around 1000 a month it takes till the end of 3rd quarter to clear May 2010.
The good movement for Eb2 I in later half of 2021 needs EB1 India to clear within next 2-3 bulletins, COVID situation ensures the travel ban continue for another quarter. The downgrade to EB3 will make an impact only for Eb2 applicants beyond May 2011.
I don't understand your extreme pessimism here. The filing dates were never moved this aggressively in the past decade. This is already unprecedented, I would give a couple more months before doom scrolling here.
Downgrades will happen across the board as and when EB3 FAD starts chugging forward regardless of the PD ranges.
That's not a rule. Its been a general practice with exceptions.It is my understanding that they will follow the 7% rule on the total GCs available this year (including the additional quota we received from FB) for the first three quarters as is the rule. Then in the last quarter, they will give all unused visas to backlogged countries. It may be too late by then resulting in major loss of visas. That is the reason I see EB2I moving by only 1-2 months per month and EB3I moving by 2-3 months per month for the first three quarters followed by larger movements in the last quarter.
Spec can certainly provide more surgical analysis of this and he always loves to explain the pessimistic scenarios in detail!
All fair points and by mid 2021 lotsa Q1 filers (like us) would be mostly done with admin. processing of adjudications and could be click away when the visas become available (assuming no interviews by then). Obviously painting an optimistic scenario here.
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