EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[sportsfan33]

Q,

I've never felt it important to mention, since I assumed most people took it for granted.

Due to the category and nationality (I've never made it a secret that I am not Indian), we had a GC in about a year after applying. Even that seemed an eternity at the time, wondering whether USCIS would find the credentials acceptable or not. I know many people may say that is extremely fast - and it is - but the uncertainty was still there.

Truthfully, we would have pursued opportunities elsewhere had the wait been of any great length.

I was a GC holder even before I joined the forum. I joined because the conversation here was more interesting, more respectful and more concentrated on prediction and calculation than Trackitt. That's saying something, given what Trackitt has descended into 10 years later. While the forum has had some ups and downs over the years, the polite discourse and knowledgable members remain its strength.

Is it really that long!

Unless there is a reversal in the attitude of the agencies to releasing useful and timely data, I fear my days are numbered. I think, probably like you, that there is little point in speculation when there is no underlying data to support it.

It must be quite some time since your approval - long enough that you probably have some difficult decisions to make regarding the next step.

Wha?!?! Spec's a legal immigrant too! Hear hear

No, your days are hardly numbered dear friend. Q's forum will live. Even if there are no useful numbers, this is a forum after all! We can all share news, lift each other's spirits, chat on other topics, share life stories, promote immigration advocacy...really, the number of things that could be done are countless. I don't think your only contribution is sharing accurate numbers...I think your empathy, kindness, reassurance have been very valuable to everyone, including me. I remember how back in 2014, I was frustrated when I didn't receive the blasted medical RFE and was flooding your inbox with my frustrations!

I do hope though that transparency will rule the day and these shenanigans will stop. A lot can be done to ensure fairness and transparency can be enforced in the USCIS's way of doing things. Let's hope for a brighter and more hopeful 2021!

[richie.rich]

Not sure if this question has already been answered before but I was wondering if anyone had inputs on strategy for folks with mid 2010 PD

From the 2019 USCIS I-140 data link below, it appears no of I-140's in EB3 India queue is almost 50% less then EB2 India. Since most EB2 folks past May 2011 may not downgrade, EB2 FAD is expected to move very slowly compared to EB3 FAD.
In other words, there is a high possibility that EB2 folks (PD between May 2010- May 2011) that downgrade would get their GC's much earlier than ones who decide to continue in EB2

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ry_FY09_19.pdf

Question
Should EB2 PD May 2010-May2011 downgrade to EB3 and file I-485
or
Should we file I-485 in EB2 and wait

I feel that it is going to be other way around. Since EB2 is not eligible to file after May 2011, so all EB2 from June 2011 till Jan 2015 will downgrade and do concurrent filing. That way they will fit in the queue. They will maintain their H1B. If EB2 gets further, they have the option to do interfiling.

It will be riskier from EB2 PD May 2010 - May 2011 to downgrade now with concurrent filing. If by any chance, I-140 get denied, they will be out of queue. Best bet is to not downgrade now and file under EB2 and stay in queue. Later, maintain H1B and start downgrade process to EB3 and file it in future, when dates are current.

Again, this is my thought process and I am not an attorney. Please reach out to your attorney and discuss more. All the best!!!

[radheys]

What about those EB2 between May 15- 30, 2011? should they downgrade or wait for next month bulletin?

[iamdeb]

My PD is May 23,2011 EB2-I...what suggestion do you have for those EB2-I whose PD fall between May 15-31, 2011?

[iamdeb]

In trackit, EB3-I folks with PD in 2013 are getting NVC consular processing notices......i thought NVC sends mail only to those candidates who PD is near the final action date....does it mean EB3 PD FAD is going to reach 2013 soon......

[richie.rich]

My PD is May 23,2011 EB2-I...what suggestion do you have for those EB2-I whose PD fall between May 15-31, 2011?

Since you missed the date in EB2, If I were you, I would downgrade to EB3 with concurrent filing. Maintain your H1B and keep this as a backup plan. If EB2 moves beyond, since most of the people will be downgrading during that time, you can always do interfiling back to EB2.

Please speak with your Immigration Lawyer as well before you do anything. You can suggest him this and see what he says. All the best!!!

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

In NPR, they frequently say that instead of rushing to connect the dots immediately when some big news breaks, they collect the dots and slowly try to figure out what's going on without rushing to judgement. In my view, Trackitt is basically Cable News like CNN, Fox etc., while this forum is NPR.

[qesehmk]

Spec, Yes. That's what I always thought. It matters little to me where somebody is from. What matters is their character. And you have plenty. We certainly have ups and downs and quarrels on this forum too. I do butt heads too. But by and large we have managed to be civil, cooperative and objective. The credit belongs to everybody here.

I and so many others would hope your days on this forum are not numbered. Yes the 485 inventory is not around. But if you remember it was not around when I first started publishing my forecast (it was so manual then!!). I poured over all websites, came up with what ever was available and a quite decent forecast model that correctly predicted that EB3-I was doomed. I stopped publishing that model sometime in 2013 when I built WhereismyGC. I think there is ample information around, it just isn't as readily consumable as a 485 inventory. That's what I do at WhereismyGC. Don't mean to plug in WhereismyGC. Just trying to explain that information exists in different ways that are not readily consumable.

I received my GC approval in 2011. So yes long time has passed since. Finally, I did become a citizen last month after waiting out four years. The reason I called it difficult decision was not because I was hesitant to become a US citizen. Rather it was about giving away my Indian passport and becoming a second class citizen (called OCI). I just couldn't stomach the thought. But I guess one has to move on !

Q,

I've never felt it important to mention, since I assumed most people took it for granted.

Due to the category and nationality (I've never made it a secret that I am not Indian), we had a GC in about a year after applying. Even that seemed an eternity at the time, wondering whether USCIS would find the credentials acceptable or not. I know many people may say that is extremely fast - and it is - but the uncertainty was still there.

Truthfully, we would have pursued opportunities elsewhere had the wait been of any great length.

I was a GC holder even before I joined the forum. I joined because the conversation here was more interesting, more respectful and more concentrated on prediction and calculation than Trackitt. That's saying something, given what Trackitt has descended into 10 years later. While the forum has had some ups and downs over the years, the polite discourse and knowledgable members remain its strength.

Is it really that long!

Unless there is a reversal in the attitude of the agencies to releasing useful and timely data, I fear my days are numbered. I think, probably like you, that there is little point in speculation when there is no underlying data to support it.

It must be quite some time since your approval - long enough that you probably have some difficult decisions to make regarding the next step.

[imdeng]

Don't remember Kanmani? She is probably one of the best legal minds on this forum. She could find references and split meaning like nobody. Haven't see her in a while though.

Of course I remember Kanmani - she was Spec's near equal when it came to legal matters. I was confused by whether Sri is referencing her legal mind of whether Sri *is* Kanmani's legal mind.

I have vivid memories of Kanmani figuring out my entire history - my Engg, my MBA, my PhD schools - through just my username here and location. She sent me a nice message after she deciphered my history. She was brilliant and hope she is doing well. Her PD was like a month before me IIRC - so she should be green by now if she is still in US.

[Positive]

I feel that it is going to be other way around. Since EB2 is not eligible to file after May 2011, so all EB2 from June 2011 till Jan 2015 will downgrade and do concurrent filing. That way they will fit in the queue. They will maintain their H1B. If EB2 gets further, they have the option to do interfiling.

It will be riskier from EB2 PD May 2010 - May 2011 to downgrade now with concurrent filing. If by any chance, I-140 get denied, they will be out of queue. Best bet is to not downgrade now and file under EB2 and stay in queue. Later, maintain H1B and start downgrade process to EB3 and file it in future, when dates are current.

Again, this is my thought process and I am not an attorney. Please reach out to your attorney and discuss more. All the best!!!

A separate I-140 in EB3 would not directly impact the originally approved EB2 I-140, denial of the former would not affect the latter.

[Positive]

Got some more information from a contact. They are saying, you should amend old EB2 i-140 and not file new i-140 to work around this issue. Company is Nutanix.

Amending the I-140 means if it is rejected you are done. If you file a separate I-140 for EB3, if it is rejected, you still have your approved EB2 I-140.

[Positive]

I'm with you if the world was all sunshine and roses .

I meant it as an action plan. Seriously. My PD is Sept 2013. I have been on work visas for 14 years. If we let them waste visas, they will.

[Positive]

I have 3 years Bachelor degree in Computer Science (BS) followed by 3 years of Post Graduate Diploma in Computer Application from India.
My previous employer filed my first PERM ( Priority Date: May 23, 2011) under EB2 (Masters + 1 year experience) and the I-140 got approved in Dec 2011.
My current employer filed my second PERM (ported the first PERM) under EB2 category (Masters + 3 years exp/Bachelors + 5 years exp) and my current I-140 was approved in 2016 ( Priority Date : May 23, 2011)

Will the downgrade from EB2 to EB3 cause any red flag with the new I-140 because of my educational qualification?
Thanks!

I have a Ph. D and J.D. as requirements for my current position. Both are considered doctorate level. I am downgrading and my attorney does not see any legal issues.

[newyorker123]

I have a Ph. D and J.D. as requirements for my current position. Both are considered doctorate level. I am downgrading and my attorney does not see any legal issues.

Why don't you try EB1A/EB1B if you have a Phd ?

[imdeng]

Why don't you try EB1A/EB1B if you have a Phd ?

Just having a PhD does not make you eligible for EB1A/B - there are bunch of other constraints. I am speaking from experience.

[moon80]

Not sure if this question has already been answered before but I was wondering if anyone had inputs on strategy for folks with mid 2010 PD

From the 2019 USCIS I-140 data link below, it appears no of I-140's in EB3 India queue is almost 50% less then EB2 India. Since most EB2 folks past May 2011 may not downgrade, EB2 FAD is expected to move very slowly compared to EB3 FAD.
In other words, there is a high possibility that EB2 folks (PD between May 2010- May 2011) that downgrade would get their GC's much earlier than ones who decide to continue in EB2

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ry_FY09_19.pdf

Question
Should EB2 PD May 2010-May2011 downgrade to EB3 and file I-485
or
Should we file I-485 in EB2 and wait

I think you have generalized a big timeframe EB2 PD May 2010-May2011.

I believe EB2 I can easily gets GC in 2021 till Dec 2010, so no point downporting till then.

[newyorker123]

Just having a PhD does not make you eligible for EB1A/B - there are bunch of other constraints. I am speaking from experience.

I understand and I am speaking from experience too.
EB1A is always very difficult (though I know outliers with only undergrad degrees who got it approved).
But EB1B has high rates of success, and a Phd naturally leads to EB1B criteria fulfillment. More so, as an EB1B always backed by an employer.

[rohanvus]

I think you have generalized a big timeframe EB2 PD May 2010-May2011.

I believe EB2 I can easily gets GC in 2021 till Dec 2010, so no point downporting till then.

Whats your take on filing date for EB2 ? Do you see this move at all in coming months or would EB2 filing date retrogress ?

I have PD of Dec 2,2011 (EB2) . Hence double minded whether i should downgrade or stay put in EB2 .

[Positive]

Just having a PhD does not make you eligible for EB1A/B - there are bunch of other constraints. I am speaking from experience.

Exactly. You need to be doing research or work as a professor for EB1A and EB1B, respectively.

[Positive]

I understand and I am speaking from experience too.
EB1A is always very difficult (though I know outliers with only undergrad degrees who got it approved).
But EB1B has high rates of success, and a Phd naturally leads to EB1B criteria fulfillment. More so, as an EB1B always backed by an employer.

Here's what USCIS has on its website for EB1B and I am sure it closely follows the statute/regs:

"You must demonstrate international recognition for your outstanding achievements in a particular academic field. You must have at least 3 years experience in teaching or research in that academic area. You must be entering the United States in order to pursue tenure or tenure track teaching or a comparable research position at a university, institution of higher education, or private employer."

[moon80]

Whats your take on filing date for EB2 ? Do you see this move at all in coming months or would EB2 filing date retrogress ?

I have PD of Dec 2,2011 (EB2) . Hence double minded whether i should downgrade or stay put in EB2 .

Filing dates are hard to predict. But IMHO I think filing dates might move a bit in NOV but not sure whether it will cover dec 2011.
I think you should start preparing for EB3 downport and file 485 ASAP.

[newyorker123]

Here's what USCIS has on its website for EB1B and I am sure it closely follows the statute/regs:

"You must demonstrate international recognition for your outstanding achievements in a particular academic field. You must have at least 3 years experience in teaching or research in that academic area. You must be entering the United States in order to pursue tenure or tenure track teaching or a comparable research position at a university, institution of higher education, or private employer."

Note: "Private employer"
Many employees in private companies having Phds would have been eligible for EB1B "if the employer wanted to file". Employers don't want to, for obvious reasons.

[rohanvus]

Filing dates are hard to predict. But IMHO I think filing dates might move a bit in NOV but not sure whether it will cover dec 2011.
I think you should start preparing for EB3 downport and file 485 ASAP.

Thanks moon.
Does downporting mean that i am out of EB2 queue forever if i switch to EAD posting 485 filing ?
In other words , if I switch from H1B to EAD and we then see EB2 FAD advance , can i get back to EB2 queue at that point ?

[iamdeb]

My PD is EB2-I May 23,2011...........my company has agreed to downgrade.......I know its a personal call but wanted to check with the experts in this forum whether or not I should downgrade to EB3 or wait in the EB2 queue..........

[texas_]

My PD is EB2-I May 23,2011...........my company has agreed to downgrade.......I know its a personal call but wanted to check with the experts in this forum whether or not I should downgrade to EB3 or wait in the EB2 queue..........

I would say go with the downgrade without wasting a second.
It won’t harm your existing EB2 approval, however downgrading would give you more path open to receive green card faster

I listened to Spec and Q 3 years ago now I have both eb2 and eb3

Please take advantage of existing rules and be at peace

Hope this helps