EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[qesehmk]

In 2010 - I along with a host of other really good people built GC predictions for our own benefit really. Over the years, hundreds of thousands others (perhaps millions) found them useful is an awesome fact but to tell the truth we started it for our own benefit. As all of us received our green cards we have moved on. All of you too will once you get your GC.

I too moved on and created WhereismyGC (www.whereismygc.com) a paid service. If you can afford to pay then WhereismyGC is the best place. I can vouch for it. The only thing I will caution is - sometimes some people find it too realistic. They can't handle the truth -- how long a wait they may have in store for them. Also some people can't digest the whole idea of probability. They think if they are paying then they are entitled to absolute truth. Well here is the thing - there is no absolute truth. Everything is probability and that's what WhereismyGC shows.

For such reasons or reasons such as can't or don't want to pay, then this forum is your playground. Build predictions and share with others. Believe me - there is a joy in doing so and earning some good Karma !!

I have earned some good friendships along that made my GC journey much easier. I hope yours will too.

Good luck to all.

p.s. - Archives of old EB2-3 Calculations can be found HERE

[Spectator]

As always, please take the following with a pinch of salt. It is a best effort, but the variables mean it can never be truly accurate and has wide error margins.

FY2017

EB1

Without any substantial change, EB1 is likely to use its full allocation again in FY2017. This is even more likely, since EB1 China and India were retrogressed for the final 2 months of FY2016 - therefore up to 14 months of demand will be available in FY2017 for these Countries.

EB4

For EB4, CO has set a 15JUN15 FAD in October for El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras within EB4 and expects slow progress during FY2017. If that's the case, then there will not be any spillover from EB4 in FY2017.

EB5

The EB5 regional center program is currently scheduled to sunset at the end of FY2016. If, as is widely expected, it is extended, then EB5 will not provide SO either. Even if the amounts required to qualify under the RC are substantially increased, there is already a large backlog of Chinese investors under the old system, sufficient for several years. Should the RC program eventually be abolished, it would provide a healthy number of spare visas in the short term.

Family Based Visas from FY2016

All FB Categories and Countries are retrogressed. FB should use all their 226k allocation in FY2016. Any spare visas would be a bonus. CO seems to be doing a better job utilizing them recently. As an update, CO has now published the anticipated Annual Numerical Limits for Fiscal Year 2017. This shows no anticipated extra visas from FB use last FY, so the EB limit for FY2017 will be 140k. Although it may get updated at a later date, I don't expect much change - perhaps a few hundred as in FY2016.

PERM

PERM certifications for the last 6-7 months have remained very high, so the pipeline of ROW approvals for the first half of FY2017 is also likely to be quite high.

It's true that the PERM certifications have been high and the backlog has reduced (from 58.9k at the end of FY2015 to 38.6k at the end of Q3 FY2016). At some point, the certifications should slow, but it's not clear when this might happen. Last time (FY2011) OFLC brought the backlog down to 20k.

At the same time, the number of new PERM receipts also appears to have risen (from 87.6k in FY2015 to a prorated 99.4k in FY2016).

EB2

Worldwide

The high PERM pipeline plus retrogression in the last 2 months of FY2016 means that EB2-WW approvals are likely to remain relatively high for at least the first half of FY2017. Due to the retrogression, up to 14 months demand is available in FY2017 for EB2-WW.

India

The prospects for EB2-I in FY2017 look quite bleak. The sources of traditional spillover look to be dry for a second successive year. This might only change late in the FY.

EB3

India

High PERM certifications and a trend towards an increased % of ROW EB3 cases may put the squeeze on available Fall Across within EB3.

EB3-I still has the very difficult last week of March 2005 to traverse. Again, any substantial movement will happen very late in the FY. Until then, it will be glacially slow.

[imdeng]

Placeholder for FY2015 predictions.

[vizcard]

imdeng,

Thanks for the kind words.

I hear what you say about pre-adjudication and I think you are probably correct.

Unfortunately, that also means that the DOS Demand figures will undercount the true numbers, since USCIS will not request the visa until pre-adjudication is complete.

Sometimes it's just nice to wish. Would it have taken so much effort to have added another stage in the online status to reflect pre-adjudication when they changed the system?

I don't think so. It just reflects that USCIS are not, despite what they might want people to believe, very customer orientated.

Which could mean that the dates might move faster (whenever they do move) than they should and then retrogress again.

[YTeleven]

In few hours from now we will be in FY15, this will be my last post in FY14.
I've a very positive prediction for EB3-India folks who are waiting for more than 10 years in the GC Q.
Back in May'14 I was predicting that EB3-India will have bright future ahead in this post: here

After a thorough data analysis I could say that in FY16 we will see a complete wipe out of EB3-I I485 inventory as shown in this graph:EB3-I I485 inventory trends
Here I'm comparing the same graph with current EB3-ROW inventory trend:EB3-I I485 inventory trends comparing with EB3-ROW inventory trend

After seeing these graphs you might question why would we see 20k spillover to EB3-I in FY16. This is what I'm getting from all the available data pointers.
After FY15 there will not be any demand for EB3 to consume its yearly 40k visas and that gives a massive horizontal spillover to EB3-India.
So this means we will have inventory buildup for EB3-I also in FY16.

Already, this post predicts that there is a possibility for EB2-I inventory building in FY16.

[sportsfan33]

No number crunching from me, taking a macro view.

Here are the visa bulletins in the month of September for the last 4 years:

2010: May 8, 2006
2011: Apr 15, 2007
2012: NA
2013: June 15, 2008
2014: May 1, 2009

Salient observations:
- Over the last 4 years, average date advancement is 9 months per calender year.
- Over the last 3 years, the average date advancement is 7.5 months per calender year.
- Even between 2011-2013, when we were hit by increasing EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, the average movement continued at 7 months per calender year.

Tailwinds going forward:
- EB2-ROW: Getting a Perm is going to be very tough going forward.
- Porting from EB3I to EB2I: Read above.

Headwinds going forward:
- EB5: For all practical purposes, consider this out of equation.

Unknown:
- EB1: In particular EB1C. In my opinion, EB1 is one Kazarian-style memo away (that hits EB1C-I hard) from giving 10K+ spillover.
- FB spillover: It is still not clear whether FB spillover will be available.

Overall, we lose EB5, but the damage is contained since EB5 cannot get numbers from anywhere else (thank goodness). We should gain big time due to increasing PERM delays, so everyone whose PERMs and labors are clear gain advantage.

One of the biggest factors though that facilitated all the date movement for the last 2 years was FB spillover in 2013 and 2014. FB gave EB 28K visas combined over the last 2 years, and an estimated 20K of those visas were consumed by EB2I. This is a huge number and made all the difference for EB2I. 20K for EB2I is almost an years worth of advancement. Without the FB numbers, we would be at May 1, 2008 today and not in May 1, 2009.

For FY 2015:
- Not having significant FB spillover will impact the movement negatively.
- The positive effect of PERM delays will not show up significantly for FY 2015. However, increased PERM delays will ensure that EB2-ROW doesn't kill EB2I which was otherwise looking like a real possibility.
- EB1 and EB2-ROW will still provide some spillover. EB2-ROW spillover will only come due to PERM delays.
- Without having any other source of spillover, the movement will be just enough to reach the end of 2009. Going to the 3 year average, my point estimate is December 15, 2009.

[Kanmani]

Notes on Discussion with Charles Oppenheim, Chief of Visa Control, updated Oct 01 2014.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/...ctober-1-2014/

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

@Turbulent_dragonfly

Can you please share details about the medicals? Is there some form doctor will have to complete, does this have to be physical check up with doctor, blood work etc., ?

Yes they will ask for your immunization records from India if you have them. If not they will give you MMR, TDAP and possibly the flu shot too. If you have never had chicken pox, they may give that shot too. Blood work to screen for any STDs. Depending on what shots you need, it may be anywhere from $200 to $450.

Results usually in a week. After the lab results are back, the Physician will fill out form I-693 and sign it and seal it for submission to USCIS.

[Zenzone]

Update on covid talks. Pelosi and mnuchin did not reach an agreement. House is proceeding this evening with its own covid relief bill at $2.2T .FB spillover is probably safe for now

Thanks for your watch on this topic. Since tomorrow is the official start of new fiscal, is it fair to say that if a bill that contains visa re-allocation doesn't pass house, senate and signed by the POTUS, by law by midnight today we are good for the SO for the entire new fiscal?

[bones20]

Been a lurker for many years. My PD is 04/29/2010 (EB-2). Do you suggest filing for concurrent eb-2 & eb-3 or just file eb-2 for now and switch to eb-3 later when its fac date becomes current?

thanks!

[Zenzone]

Yes they will ask for your immunization records from India if you have them. If not they will give you MMR, TDAP and possibly the flu shot too. If you have never had chicken pox, they may give that shot too. Blood work to screen for any STDs. Depending on what shots you need, it may be anywhere from $200 to $450.

Results usually in a week. After the lab results are back, the Physician will fill out form I-693 and sign it and seal it for submission to USCIS.

Also, you don't need to do medicals now if you are filing just based on filing dates and your final action dates are not yet current.

[gs1968]

Thanks for your watch on this topic. Since tomorrow is the official start of new fiscal, is it fair to say that if a bill that contains visa re-allocation doesn't pass house, senate and signed by the POTUS, by law by midnight today we are good for the SO for the entire new fiscal?

I think the chances of any deal before the election are unlikely. I read that 10 days ago, Stephen Moore told President Trump in a meeting at the White House that it was likely already too late for a stimulus to help Trump politically.Moore told Trump a deal now wont boost the economy until 2021 - or after Nov 3. There is no incentive for the president to lean on the GOP senate to push the bill through.It is also possible that with every passing day the Democrats are increasingly positive about a favorable election outcome and are likely to deal with this in January 2021. The next opportunity for any amendments to be attached would be the next CR in December when the current one expires on Dec 11. The Senate is voting at 5 PM on the House passed CR and should recess after that.

As far as whether these spillover numbers are safe I really don't know. If the Congress passes something on a prorated basis to reclaim the numbers in January the USCIS will have to honor it. The inclusion in the current Bill suggests that the issue is still alive. Of more immediate concern is the fee raises that were struck down in court yesterday. If the USCIS was planning to use this extra income to bolster their fiances and expand hiring then it may be difficult now. Hopefully in January they can have a confirmed nominee that can enforce these increases.I think the case yesterday was struck down because the judge felt that Chad Wolf was appointed illegally

[horizon1012]

Its part of new Heros act..https://appropriations.house.gov/sit....9.28.1753.pdf

I tried to skim thru the bill and searched for the text spillover, visas, employment and other relevant text. Did not find any reference that says that the spillover will be abolished. May be it is posted in some legislative language which I am unable to interpret. Any one has the exact text which explains this clause.

[Zenzone]

I think the chances of any deal before the election are unlikely. I read that 10 days ago, Stephen Moore told President Trump in a meeting at the White House that it was likely already too late for a stimulus to help Trump politically.Moore told Trump a deal now wont boost the economy until 2021 - or after Nov 3. There is no incentive for the president to lean on the GOP senate to push the bill through.It is also possible that with every passing day the Democrats are increasingly positive about a favorable election outcome and are likely to deal with this in January 2021. The next opportunity for any amendments to be attached would be the next CR in December when the current one expires on Dec 11. The Senate is voting at 5 PM on the House passed CR and should recess after that.

As far as whether these spillover numbers are safe I really don't know. If the Congress passes something on a prorated basis to reclaim the numbers in January the USCIS will have to honor it. The inclusion in the current Bill suggests that the issue is still alive. Of more immediate concern is the fee raises that were struck down in court yesterday. If the USCIS was planning to use this extra income to bolster their fiances and expand hiring then it may be difficult now. Hopefully in January they can have a confirmed nominee that can enforce these increases.I think the case yesterday was struck down because the judge felt that Chad Wolf was appointed illegally

Thanks. I think its a theoretical possibility that retro-actively re-take the unused FB visas. Also remember, January will be Q2 of the fiscal and there are chances that a good portion of the SO might have been already allocated. So its futile exercise. However, they can enact the law to bring back the unused number from Oct-Dec that are part of the new fiscal. I hope that doesn't happen either! Also, the brighter side, with new admin. chances of S.386 is hopefully brighter. But I agree with you that this is not an immediate threat as yet overall.

[gs1968]

I tried to skim thru the bill and searched for the text spillover, visas, employment and other relevant text. Did not find any reference that says that the spillover will be abolished. May be it is posted in some legislative language which I am unable to interpret. Any one has the exact text which explains this clause.

The provisions are under Section T Immigration matters on Page 2022 of the PDF File. The language is exactly as before in the previous versions of this Bill. There are also provisions included for physicians

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I tried to skim thru the bill and searched for the text spillover, visas, employment and other relevant text. Did not find any reference that says that the spillover will be abolished. May be it is posted in some legislative language which I am unable to interpret. Any one has the exact text which explains this clause.

Look at page 2025

(ii) ELIMINATION OF FALL ACROSS.—
20 For fiscal years 2021 and 2022, the num21 ber computed under subsection (c)(3)(C) of
22 section 201 of the Immigration and Na23 tionality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151), and the
24 number computed under subsection
VerDate Nov 24 2008 11:54 Sep 29, 2020 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 02025 Fmt 6652 Sfmt 6201 C:\USERS\AWILSON3\APPDATA\ROAMING\SOFTQUAD\XMETAL\ 11.0\GEN\C\SUPP_SEP
September 29, 2020 (11:54 a.m.)
H:\XML\FY21\SUPP\COVID\SUPP_SEP_01_ALL.XML
L:\VA\092920\A092920.007.xml
2026
lll
1 (d)(2)(C) of such section, are deemed to
2 equal zero.

[Positive]

"Stimulus negotiations between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi fell apart on Wednesday. We’re very, very far apart,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said after the meeting. . . Republicans acknowledged prior to the meeting that this was likely the last chance to get something done before the election."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...?ocid=msedgntp

[mesan123]

Also, you don't need to do medicals now if you are filing just based on filing dates and your final action dates are not yet current.

It depends on your attornies.. our company Attorney kept it as a needed document to file. So i would tell , check with your company attorney first for the checklist, if they request it go ahead and do it

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

It depends on your attornies.. our company Attorney kept it as a needed document to file. So i would tell , check with your company attorney first for the checklist, if they request it go ahead and do it

Exactly. Since my PD is in May 2010, my attorney did not want any outstanding documentation down the road even it means spending the money for naught.

[maverick2010]

Exactly. Since my PD is in May 2010, my attorney did not want any outstanding documentation down the road even it means spending the money for naught.

My attorney is taking different stance - They want me to send the application ASAP and deal with medicals later on when we get RFE. My priority date is Sep 2010 EB2.

Also, my attorney said if we send the I-485 application before Oct 12th we don't need to submit I-944 along with the application. It can be submitted later on when we get the RFE.

[Moveon]

USCIS can consider I485 to be abandoned if you travel abroad when it's pending unless

1. You have advance parole by filing i131

2. You are maintaining lawful h, L, V, K3/k4, and you return using a valid H, L, v, K3/k4 non immigrant visa.

To be doubly sure I would advice you do both, and check with lawyer.

Also check: https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/whi...ing-with-uscis

I suppose I am qualified to answer this Question as I have been through this .
In April/May 2018 the administration secretly passed a directive that the AP would be considered abandoned if a person traveled while the application was in process. I was supposed to travel in June and there were rumors about this . So I went to the USCIS info pass office and they told me that they have not received any such directive and that I was OK to travel as long as I applied for the extension while in the US and return before the current AP expired. I visited India for 2 weeks and in July I got I letter saying that AP was rejected due to the travel , but my EAD was extended for 2 years. I reapplied for the AP which got approved in 14 weeks but for only one year. Ever since my AP is renewed for one year and EAD for 2 .

There were lot of petitions filed to the USCIS and they revered their draconian directive mid 2019 . Please refer to https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/travel-documents/emergency-travel . Here is an excerpt from the USCIS page
"If you file Form I-131, Application for Travel Document, to request an advance parole document and depart the United States without possession of an advance parole document that is valid for the entire time you are abroad, your Form I-131 will be considered abandoned. At times, an individual may have an approved advance parole document while a second one is pending. Individuals may travel on the approved advanced parole document, provided the document is valid for the entire duration of the time abroad. The pending Form I-131 will not be considered abandoned in this situation."

So you are safe to travel after you apply but be sure you return before the current AP expires as AP can take upto 7 months to renew . EAD has no such rule , you just need to apply when in the US.

[jimmys]

Yes they will ask for your immunization records from India if you have them. If not they will give you MMR, TDAP and possibly the flu shot too. If you have never had chicken pox, they may give that shot too. Blood work to screen for any STDs. Depending on what shots you need, it may be anywhere from $200 to $450.

Results usually in a week. After the lab results are back, the Physician will fill out form I-693 and sign it and seal it for submission to USCIS.

Also, you don't need to do medicals now if you are filing just based on filing dates and your final action dates are not yet current.

If you are EB2 and your PD is before Jan 1,2011(Jan 1,2012 for EB-3) it makes sense to send the form I-693 along with your I-485. In case if your interview gets waived, you may get approved without an RFE for medical.

[longwaitgigu]

Thanks. I think its a theoretical possibility that retro-actively re-take the unused FB visas. Also remember, January will be Q2 of the fiscal and there are chances that a good portion of the SO might have been already allocated. So its futile exercise. However, they can enact the law to bring back the unused number from Oct-Dec that are part of the new fiscal. I hope that doesn't happen either! Also, the brighter side, with new admin. chances of S.386 is hopefully brighter. But I agree with you that this is not an immediate threat as yet overall.

If the INA rule has already enacted and given spillover per rule. IMO any party wins they cannot retro active after sept 30 2020. But they can very well stop from oct 2021
Do u trust dems for s386- the biggest liars
Backlogged indians r atleast able to file for ead due to GOP ( not just coz of consulate closures, I firmly believe trump order also plays a role)
I really hope DT 2020, I would take ead and ap for 2 years than nothing

[mesan123]

My attorney is taking different stance - They want me to send the application ASAP and deal with medicals later on when we get RFE. My priority date is Sep 2010 EB2.

Also, my attorney said if we send the I-485 application before Oct 12th we don't need to submit I-944 along with the application. It can be submitted later on when we get the RFE.

. i heard attornies are charging extra for each RFE response( except adminstrative ones eg like passport pics or medicals)... just an info

I do understand we can submit only the documents attornies request..

[longwaitgigu]

Do u expect FAD to reach for eb2- jan 2011 and eb3 jan 2012?