EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[alpha0]

I had said this same thing a few weeks back that come Oct 1st, spillover will become real and congress will not harm EB nor override something that took place according to another law that it passed years back. Not impossible but quite improbable.

However what concerns me is that - in this whole discussion, we can see at least some FB interests are trying to push for their own interests. But from EB side, the only thing that may protect its interest is congress' own tendency to not do harm. This is walking on very thin ice for EB.

Was this FB interests or lawyers who generally do not make any money from FB cases and make their living from EB? But i agree, at this stage, there should be someone from EB side killing that discussion atleast for this year.

[suninphx]

This forum is unusually quite on predictions now a days. Congratulations to all who had the ability to file based on "DF". Here's are my predictions.
I don't see "DF" moving anymore (unless the FA dates move drastically).

From the Oct 2020 VB:

I think, it will be two months per bulletin for EB2I FA dates (Nov, Dec, Jan). By January 2021, EB2I FA should have advanced 6 months from Sept 1st 2009 to March 01, 2010. For EB3I, it should be at least 3 months per bulletin. By January 2021, EB3I FA should be around 15 October 2010. What will be interesting is that they will not see immediate demand in EB3I after 01APR2010 (The FA was current only this month for the first time). So do they start doing crazy movements in EB3I FA after it crosses 01APR2010? I have not seen check in report with CO for last month. Is he keeping a low profile till the elections ?

Is anyone else concerned about not seeing any approvals (on trackitt) even if new quota is in play now?

[qesehmk]

Was this FB interests or lawyers who generally do not make any money from FB cases and make their living from EB? But i agree, at this stage, there should be someone from EB side killing that discussion atleast for this year.

In this case it was a congressional representative from Taiwan (I think). Nothing wrong in what she did. See that's who democracy is supposed to work. EB needs a solid representation. Luckily I do think they will get by this time around and the 260K visas won't be harmed.

[idliman]

EB2I I agree the rate of movement. But why do we think we will not see an immediate demand post APR2010 for EBI. We have these three months when PDs upto Jan/2015 can file for 485s assuming the filing dates remain the same till that period and that will show up in the demand. My guess would be come Jan the filing dates for EB3 will be rolled back with many porting numbers, and may be around 2012 or just they may stop honoring the filing dates and just take Final Action dates as eligible for Filing.

I think it takes at a minimum about 6 to 8 months for a EB application to reach adjudication. The work load is going to be crazy high for USCIS. New applicants have to do finger printing and such. Even in 2012, I think it took 2 to 3 months to get EADs. My understanding is that they have more officers capable of adjudicating I765/I131 as they are relatively simple. But when it comes to I485 only a select few or a select group can adjudicate as it is more involved. So that's why I was thinking that they will not see demand from people who filed in OCT2020 at-least till summer months of 2021.

Now if JB wins, then he is going to cancel all of Trump's EOs. Don't know how long it will take to roll back rules on interview and medical requirements. They can resort to block approving all per-adjudicated people like in 2012/2103. That's the only way they will be able to utilize and issue the full 261.5K GCs.

If Trump wins, then all the EOs will be extended. There is going to be great spillover again. But my only concern is how much GCs will be approved. It will be great for people waiting for EADs though.

[bones20]

Everything is a speculation. Ask people who files in 2012 and have done multiple medicals. We just reach out to our wallets if the medicals need to be redone. We shelled out so much, a few more hundreds is hardly worth the worry. What if the dates move and then will you wait for a RFE or do the paper work again? If we expect the EBI dates to not clear by 2021 then all this movement to Jan/2015 is to just ensure that we do multiple EADs, APs and Medicals and get the funding rolling.

Well, you can either make the decision optimistically or based on chances. Chances of this being revoked are close to 100%.

18 years in US and can vouch not one single rule/law has ever been in our favor. Our plight works to pretty much everyone else's advantage - companies, lawyers, citizens, other immigration seekers, job seekers etc. Glorified/well paid slavory it is.

[vsivarama]

Well, you can either make the decision optimistically or based on chances. Chances of this being revoked are close to 100%.

18 years in US and can vouch not one single rule/law has ever been in our favor. Our plight works to pretty much everyone else's advantage - companies, lawyers, citizens, other immigration seekers, job seekers etc. Glorified/well paid slavory it is.

If you are making decisions based on emotions then yes you are right. But realistically chances of this happening are pretty slim. Allocated numbers were never revoked in the past. Regardless of who wins the Senate the chances are slim. If Rs win then they will not allow the FB provision to be put in. If D's win, It's easier for them to recapture unused GC numbers for FB than take away numbers from EB and potentially face court battles. There has never been a precedent and it violates the do no harm clause. The lawmakers since they have no dog in the fight will make a rational decision and not an emotional one like us.

[bones20]

If you are making decisions based on emotions then yes you are right. But realistically chances of this happening are pretty slim. Allocated numbers were never revoked in the past. Regardless of who wins the Senate the chances are slim. If Rs win then they will not allow the FB provision to be put in. If D's win, It's easier for them to recapture unused GC numbers for FB than take away numbers from EB and potentially face court battles. There has never been a precedent and it violates the do no harm clause. The lawmakers since they have no dog in the fight will make a rational decision and not an emotional one like us.

Well, dont mean to digress this thread. Sorry, I feel that you are being emotional.

Republicans will drop us without a blink as a tradeoff in stimulus negotiations. Sorry, there are no batters for us. May happen in the next week itself. Good luck!

[vsivarama]

Rs are not interested whatsoever in stimulus relief. They are only interested in confirming the SC pick before election.

[android09]

Rs are not interested whatsoever in stimulus relief. They are only interested in confirming the SC pick before election.

Looks like DHS and DOL are issuing 2 regulations today for specialty occupation and wage levels.

https://www.dhs.gov/news/2020/10/06/...rity-h-1b-visa

[rabp77]

EB2I I agree the rate of movement. But why do we think we will not see an immediate demand post APR2010 for EBI. We have these three months when PDs upto Jan/2015 can file for 485s assuming the filing dates remain the same till that period and that will show up in the demand. My guess would be come Jan the filing dates for EB3 will be rolled back with many porting numbers, and may be around 2012 or just they may stop honoring the filing dates and just take Final Action dates as eligible for Filing.

Beyond april-2010, there is certainly demand for eb3i. However, we can say with certainty that there is no pre-adjucated demand. All eb3-i demand after April 2010 will be from new applications. By the time these applications are adjudicated, it will at least be 6-12 months, so it's impact on helping use the spillover will be limited. Unless they skip the interview for many of these.

In case, they decide to advance the FAD for eb3i any way. It's likely many who go for interview in the final months of the fy will get gc approved during the interview, or if the interview is waived, approval can be faster. But those are big ifs.

I hope they don't end spillover. As q and others said, it unlikely.

[idliman]

I had said this same thing a few weeks back that come Oct 1st, spillover will become real and congress will not harm EB nor override something that took place according to another law that it passed years back. Not impossible but quite improbable.

However what concerns me is that - in this whole discussion, we can see at least some FB interests are trying to push for their own interests. But from EB side, the only thing that may protect its interest is congress' own tendency to not do harm. This is walking on very thin ice for EB.

Thanks Q.

Trump tweeted: “I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business.”

No stimulus / SO Killer amendment for at least one more month. Once they win, they don't need to go to people for another 2 more years. So they will take their own time to craft a stimulus along with a new "YUGE" Omnibus.

[jimmys]

Now if JB wins, then he is going to cancel all of Trump's EOs. Don't know how long it will take to roll back rules on interview and medical requirements. They can resort to block approving all per-adjudicated people like in 2012/2103. That's the only way they will be able to utilize and issue the full 261.5K GCs.

Mm... I don't think mandatory interviews are made through an EO. It was there but USCIS didn't enforce it to all the applicants. Besides, I doubt Biden will ask USCIS to get rid of interview mandate for AOS applicants. Most likely status quo and USCIS will hold the right to waive off the interview like they are doing now.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Thanks Q.

No stimulus / SO Killer amendment for at least one more month. Once they win, they don't need to go to people for another 2 more years. So they will take their own time to craft a stimulus along with a new "YUGE" Omnibus.

All their focus will be on ramroding the SCOTUS pick in. They will then be able to control the national agenda for at least another decade or so and will begin by striking down Roe/Wade, DoMA, ACA, Voting Rights etc.

Someone here scoffed when I said RBG passing is going to diminish our civil liberties. Just watch what happens over the next 10-15 years...

Btw, I blame RBG for not retiring during the Obama Presidency and making way for an appointment to keep the balance. This is going to cost the country dearly.

[bones20]

Was stuck on the below 2 i944 items:
1. Health Insurance: Aetna is providing a letter but it will not have annual deductible/premium info or an end date.
2. Credit score: Do you just take a print out from transunion dashboard?

any suggestions on the above?

[android09]

Was stuck on the below 2 i944 items:
1. Health Insurance: Aetna is providing a letter but it will not have annual deductible/premium info or an end date.
2. Credit score: Do you just take a print out from transunion dashboard?

any suggestions on the above?

1. I got a letter from Blue Cross Blue Shield that showed who was covered and then printouts from the BCBS profile site regarding when the coverage ended(the plan details) and their costing.
2. I got credit report from Experian. This was $39.99 and gives you credit score and report from all 3 credit agencies. I got that. You can do that or use the free credit report that the instructions point to.

[bones20]

1. I got a letter from Blue Cross Blue Shield that showed who was covered and then printouts from the BCBS profile site regarding when the coverage ended(the plan details) and their costing.
2. I got credit report from Experian. This was $39.99 and gives you credit score and report from all 3 credit agencies. I got that. You can do that or use the free credit report that the instructions point to.

thanks. Why would your coverage end? Employer plans are perpetual, no? How do you answer this question:"when does your health insurance terminate or date that it must be renewed"

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

thanks. Why would your coverage end? Employer plans are perpetual, no? How do you answer this question:"when does your health insurance terminate or date that it must be renewed"

Coverage usually runs through 12/31 every year so in my case my end date was 12/31/2020. It is usually renewed before then after reviewing any changes the employee wants made.

[reys03]

Hi! What is the documentation to how for Annual premium? Do we need a letter from the company?
Thanks!

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Hi! What is the documentation to how for Annual premium? Do we need a letter from the company?
Thanks!

You should be able to print that by logging into the Insurance providers' portal.

[android09]

Coverage usually runs through 12/31 every year so in my case my end date was 12/31/2020. It is usually renewed before then after reviewing any changes the employee wants made.

Same here. Open enrollment starts around November and then coverage begins 1/1/2021. I can only give what i have. I've submitted last year's Form 1095-C and the BCBS entry shows coverage active since 2014. So hopefully that's evidence enough I guess.

[nbk1976]

In this case it was a congressional representative from Taiwan (I think). Nothing wrong in what she did. See that's who democracy is supposed to work. EB needs a solid representation. Luckily I do think they will get by this time around and the 260K visas won't be harmed.

Could you briefly explain what the negative impact for spillover would be if the Heroes Act passes? I realize the passing of this Act is very unlikely now, but would it have voided any spillover? Was that the fear?

Thank you.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Could you briefly explain what the negative impact for spillover would be if the Heroes Act passes? I realize the passing of this Act is very unlikely now, but would it have voided any spillover? Was that the fear?

Thank you.

Yes, preserved it for FB.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1313601837375934464

Siskind tweeting on new H1 rules.

[bones20]

QQ: Do we need to enter alien registration number in i485 form?

[qesehmk]

Could you briefly explain what the negative impact for spillover would be if the Heroes Act passes? I realize the passing of this Act is very unlikely now, but would it have voided any spillover? Was that the fear?

Thank you.

There was a fear that the act would take away the 120K spillover visas,after the fact (since 2021 already has started.). With Trump shutting down talks, now there is nothing on the table. But my own take was that congress would have passed the act without the provision to capture 2020 spillover.