EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[longwaitgigu]

Only for family GC and Diversity lottery. Not for H1b, L1 and J visa. Those remain till March 31

But we were counting spillover on family gc for next FY 2022.
Will the EB ( ROW) be affected?

[AceMan]

But we were counting spillover on family gc for next FY 2022.
Will the EB ( ROW) be affected?

Why should USCIS consider our counting and expectations?

However I am expecting the demand at the consulates are not going be heavy considering the pandemic situation prevailing at many places around the globe. You can still expect a very similar spillover you received for 2021 in 2022 as well.

[Moveon]

But we were counting spillover on family gc for next FY 2022.
Will the EB ( ROW) be affected?

With cases rising in rest of the world I am not sure if the consulates will be ready to open in full capacity this fiscal. My Gut feel is that we should get close to the same amount of SO . Here is my back of the envelope estimation :
For the last fiscal the US consulates functioned at normal pace from Oct1st to Feb 28th/midMarch . That is atleast 5 months and gave us 120K SO due to the shutdown. This fiscal we have 7 months left and the consulates will probably function at 50% capacity Max. So hoping for the same of greater SO is still possible ?
I am not sure if it is True , the US consulates they say will get their US workers fully vaccinated before taking larger case loads of CP. That might also delay CP cases and help the SO.

[android09]

With cases rising in rest of the world I am not sure if the consulates will be ready to open in full capacity this fiscal. My Gut feel is that we should get close to the same amount of SO . Here is my back of the envelope estimation :
For the last fiscal the US consulates functioned at normal pace from Oct1st to Feb 28th/midMarch . That is atleast 5 months and gave us 120K SO due to the shutdown. This fiscal we have 7 months left and the consulates will probably function at 50% capacity Max. So hoping for the same of greater SO is still possible ?
I am not sure if it is True , the US consulates they say will get their US workers fully vaccinated before taking larger case loads of CP. That might also delay CP cases and help the SO.

Visas were not issued for oct 2020, nov 2020, dec 2020, Jan 2021, feb 2021. These will spill over to EB in Oct 2021.

[jackryan041815]

it depends on capacity though, the limit for FB GC has not been reduced for this fiscal year because of ban. It is still the same and if they really were able to (in a world unaffected by COVID), they could issue all visas by ramping up processing speed. But like others, I agree that there will be some spillover. However, I doubt it will be the same amount we saw.

[mr00us]

A question. What multiplication factor is used in calculating ROW visa usage for EB1, EB2 and EB3 resp.? Like, 1 family uses how many visa numbers for these categories? Just trying to estimate spillover for fun.
Thanks

[mohan_jgd]

HI all,

I am in a bind and thought to put my situation here to get your inputs.

I have a PD of Mar-2011 in EB2 and we applied for I-485, EAD and AP in Oct-2020. We got all the receipts last week. We also had applied for my H1 and family's H4 extension by end of year 2020 as they are expiring in end of March 2021. We didn't apply for my wife H4-EAD renewal at the time as we had already applied for I-485 in Oct 2020 and also didn't expect that process would take so much time. Since it has taken so long to just get the receipts, hopes of getting the EAD by March 2020 are low.

As my wife's H4-EAD is expiring in the next 45 days, we are now thinking of also applying for H4-EAD on a hope/prayer that it comes within that timeframe ( I know H4-EAD processing times are equally bad but desperate time calls for desperate measures).

My question is would my wife's H4-EAD application hurt or have an adverse effect on her 485-ead application as essentially they are the same but in different categories?

[SaibabaAug2010]

HI all,

I am in a bind and thought to put my situation here to get your inputs.

I have a PD of Mar-2011 in EB2 and we applied for I-485, EAD and AP in Oct-2020. We got all the receipts last week. We also had applied for my H1 and family's H4 extension by end of year 2020 as they are expiring in end of March 2021. We didn't apply for my wife H4-EAD renewal at the time as we had already applied for I-485 in Oct 2020 and also didn't expect that process would take so much time. Since it has taken so long to just get the receipts, hopes of getting the EAD by March 2020 are low.

As my wife's H4-EAD is expiring in the next 45 days, we are now thinking of also applying for H4-EAD on a hope/prayer that it comes within that timeframe ( I know H4-EAD processing times are equally bad but desperate time calls for desperate measures).

My question is would my wife's H4-EAD application hurt or have an adverse effect on her 485-ead application as essentially they are the same but in different categories?

No, I am in the same boat as you are in, the slight difference is we have applied H-1B / H-4 (& H-4-EAD) at the same time with H-1 premium and H-1 got approved in a week. The day my H-1 extension package was received by USCIS, receipt was generated and Biometrics was triggered for I-485, I-765 & I-539. Had we not applied H-1 extension , I doubt we would have received Biometrics as my receipt date on 485 is 11/16/20. So, if you apply for H-4 EAD and it might trigger Biometrics for your pending applications.

[idliman]

HI all,
My question is would my wife's H4-EAD application hurt or have an adverse effect on her 485-ead application as essentially they are the same but in different categories?

Both are different and have different eligibility criteria. One is (c)(26) [H4] and another is (c)(9)(P) [AOS]. You are perfectly allowed to have a dual-intent non-immigrant H1/H4 or L1/L2 and an immigrant (AOS) petition at the same time. USCIS will treat them as separate petitions and adjudicate them based on the basis / evidence. If you are in a non-immigrant visa like F1/F2 (where you justified the consulate officer that you will return back to your country), then the moment you apply for AOS, F1/F2 will cancel. So, H4 EAD will not have an adverse effect on AOS.

[mohan_jgd]

Both are different and have different eligibility criteria. One is (c)(26) [H4] and another is (c)(9)(P) [AOS]. You are perfectly allowed to have a dual-intent non-immigrant H1/H4 or L1/L2 and an immigrant (AOS) petition at the same time. USCIS will treat them as separate petitions and adjudicate them based on the basis / evidence. If you are in a non-immigrant visa like F1/F2 (where you justified the consulate officer that you will return back to your country), then the moment you apply for AOS, F1/F2 will cancel. So, H4 EAD will not have an adverse effect on AOS.

Thanks idliman for confirming.

[mohan_jgd]

[/I][/B]
No, I am in the same boat as you are in, the slight difference is we have applied H-1B / H-4 (& H-4-EAD) at the same time with H-1 premium and H-1 got approved in a week. The day my H-1 extension package was received by USCIS, receipt was generated and Biometrics was triggered for I-485, I-765 & I-539. Had we not applied H-1 extension , I doubt we would have received Biometrics as my receipt date on 485 is 11/16/20. So, if you apply for H-4 EAD and it might trigger Biometrics for your pending applications.

We did receive bio-metric notices for our H4 extensions and they were finger-printed this week. I am hoping that eliminates the need for bio-metrics at-least for my wife's AOS application and possibly expedites in getting her EAD approved..

[longwaitgigu]

Thankyou for explanation
May be it's the anxiety of been so near and not able to get GC due to ROW CP, processing delays which could be solved by uscis if they start issuing RFE and biometric according to PD, eventually helping the backlog cleared in sequence and allowing no further retrogression specifically for eb3 as ROW demand will spike up as soon as April. Gcseeker has explained in trackitt if u check nuts and bolts thread.
If covaid cases and deaths go up ( which is could be solved by mass vaccination)then we can see decrease ROW CP demand or not able to process it.

[maverick2010]

[/I][/B]
No, I am in the same boat as you are in, the slight difference is we have applied H-1B / H-4 (& H-4-EAD) at the same time with H-1 premium and H-1 got approved in a week. The day my H-1 extension package was received by USCIS, receipt was generated and Biometrics was triggered for I-485, I-765 & I-539. Had we not applied H-1 extension , I doubt we would have received Biometrics as my receipt date on 485 is 11/16/20. So, if you apply for H-4 EAD and it might trigger Biometrics for your pending applications.

Hi SaibabaAug2010,

Are you saying because of your H1B(+ H4 EAD) Premium application, your bio-metrics got triggered for your i-485 application that was submitted on 11/16/20? Don't you think it's a coincidence? If your H4 EAD bio-metrics got triggered at least it makes sense and can think that JB admin is doing something to alleviate H4 EAD extension grid lock.

Thanks!

[FlowerPot]

Hi SaibabaAug2010,

Are you saying because of your H1B(+ H4 EAD) Premium application, your bio-metrics got triggered for your i-485 application that was submitted on 11/16/20? Don't you think it's a coincidence? If your H4 EAD bio-metrics got triggered at least it makes sense and can think that JB admin is doing something to alleviate H4 EAD extension grid lock.

Thanks!

We filed AOS for the family in Oct-20 and then applied for H1/H4 extension in Nov-20. H1 got approved within a month and exactly after 2 months (Jan-21), we got H4 FP, which we completed early this month and its been 3 weeks and no movement on her H4 (shows FP applied to case). Its interesting H4 FP req. came in within 2 months but AOS FP for family hasn't happened and checking with USCIS chat they neither scheduled FP for AOS nor applied FP taken from H4 to AOS case yet (hopefully they apply it soon).

[AceMan]

It has been reported that few EB2 candidates from 2011 got their GC this month. Are we looking at a one year movement for that category next month?

Could not resist!!! When are the aayas going to be gayas?

[Kesid23]

It has been reported that few EB2 candidates from 2011 got their GC this month. Are we looking at a one year movement for that category next month?

Could not resist!!! When are the aayas going to be gayas?

I saw that post on trackitt.
I thought it looked like it was maybe a troll message? Too good to be true?

[may2011]

It has been reported that few EB2 candidates from 2011 got their GC this month. Are we looking at a one year movement for that category next month?

Could not resist!!! When are the aayas going to be gayas?

If that's the case, isn't it an error on USCIS' side?I have heard about people getting RFEs when their PD is about to be current..but getting a GC seems like an error

[may2011]

It has been reported that few EB2 candidates from 2011 got their GC this month. Are we looking at a one year movement for that category next month?

Could not resist!!! When are the aayas going to be gayas?

If that's the case, isn't it an error on USCIS' side?I have heard about people getting RFEs when their PD is about to be current..but getting a GC seems like an error

[nbk1976]

AC21 is only allowed if you work in a job which closely tracks with the original job offer. So you can't go work in a gas station or something else because the new employer has to provide a I-485J attesting to the fact that the new job is similar to the original one. So you are a 'free agent' but you can only play within the same sport for another team, you cannot switch to another sport .

My lawyer said that from his experience, the USCIS is extremely lenient about the "same or similar" requirement. So for example, if you have a PERM for being a college teacher and worked as a chef, it might not work, but if you switched to *any* role within the education industry, you will be fine. For example, you could be a textbook editor or instructional designer, or teach a totally different subject from what you were hired for, etc.

[qesehmk]

My lawyer said that from his experience, the USCIS is extremely lenient about the "same or similar" requirement. So for example, if you have a PERM for being a college teacher and worked as a chef, it might not work, but if you switched to *any* role within the education industry, you will be fine. For example, you could be a textbook editor or instructional designer, or teach a totally different subject from what you were hired for, etc.

This is absolutely correct. The reason is simple - their resources are better utilized going after true fraud cases which there are plenty and illegal immigrant related cases which are tens of millions. There is no point going after legal immigrants who simply may have committed a technical offense.

If you think about it Market automatically takes care of ensuring that you do a job that you are skilled to do. So USCIS should have ZERO interest in enforcing the "same or similar" mandate.

[AceMan]

I saw that post on trackitt.
I thought it looked like it was maybe a troll message? Too good to be true?

If that's the case, isn't it an error on USCIS' side?I have heard about people getting RFEs when their PD is about to be current..but getting a GC seems like an error

I recall my discussion with another user few years back on trackitt where he got his GC in error before his date was current. He took lot of pain and spent company money on the lawyer to return the GC. However when USCIS issued a new GC the expiry date again matched the date of the original GC he was issued.

So it is very obvious USCIS don't give rats... to the days. It is only extremely vigilant backlogged guys like us who are particular about it.

[android09]

If that's the case, isn't it an error on USCIS' side?I have heard about people getting RFEs when their PD is about to be current..but getting a GC seems like an error

Getting an RFE does not mean your case is going to be adjudicated right away. While there are implications regarding financial costs of Medicals for a family, it could imply perhaps processing is going to be imminent in the next few months?

[may2011]

Getting an RFE does not mean your case is going to be adjudicated right away. While there are implications regarding financial costs of Medicals for a family, it could imply perhaps processing is going to be imminent in the next few months?

That makes sense..folks with PDs before May2010 have been submitting medicals every 2 years I think

[may2011]

I recall my discussion with another user few years back on trackitt where he got his GC in error before his date was current. He took lot of pain and spent company money on the lawyer to return the GC. However when USCIS issued a new GC the expiry date again matched the date of the original GC he was issued.

So it is very obvious USCIS don't give rats... to the days. It is only extremely vigilant backlogged guys like us who are particular about it.

True..we dot our it's and cross out t's.I hope USCIS ramps up its processing..the wait has been agonizing

[smuggymba]

That makes sense..folks with PDs before May2010 have been submitting medicals every 2 years I think

No. I filed in 2012 and only submitted the medicals then. Only ppl in early 2009 who were close to getting current in the past have gotten RFE's and submitted medicals. later 2009/2010 folks haven't been contacted since 2012 it seems.

I'm March 2020 EB2 - no RFE so far or ever in the past. TSC.