EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[iamdeb]

Filing Date is not being accepted for March, only FAD. Some may have missed out unfortunately, but positive news for those who got in to be honest because it would mean that they will have more processing capacity to approve I-485s rather than be stuck on initial receipting forever. This could be what they do for the rest of the fiscal which will portend well for spillover visa usage.

DOS moved the EB1 filing date to current for all countries this bulletin. What is the point of advancing the filing date when USCIS is not going to accept it?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

DOS moved the EB1 filing date to current for all countries this bulletin. What is the point of advancing the filing date when USCIS is not going to accept it?

Yeah, pretty good observation. If they were confident that there are not many numbers between Aug 2020 and now in EB1, they could have simply made it current in FAD. I don't know if EB1 to EB2 spillover is immediately triggered and *has* to be implemented as soon as EB1 is current in FAD, so maybe they are trying to control that?

[inspired_p]

I understand that Vertical spillovers will be more for EB2 and EB3 will only Horizontal spillover.

But the number of applicants in EB2-I and EB3-I queue between January 2010 and May 2011 also have a ratio of 4:1 at least

So why do experts think EB2-I will race past EB3-I in the near future ?

Worst/Best case scenario is EB2-I and EB3-I will keep moving ahead at same pace.

Am I missing something here?

[Zenzone]

prabakarb , please be more informed before making a comment. The Extra 120K was an unintended consequence of the order to close down the consulates. After the first VB, the trump administration quickly throttled the movement of dates and in its last VB allowed only a 2 day movement. Many of us mailed our members of congress and I got a response from two of them saying that they will look into it . Give credit when its due and plz do your research. Yes, democrats have leaned towards undocumented workers while republicans before Trump did more for EB. The previous admin hated most immigrants . Just look at the EAD/AP renewal times quadrupling under Trump . My AP is pending for the last 8 months. The current VB does makes me current, so will hope for the best.

Honestly, I won't even bother replying mate. It was a troll at best!

[Zenzone]

I understand that Vertical spillovers will be more for EB2 and EB3 will only Horizontal spillover.

But the number of applicants in EB2-I and EB3-I queue between January 2010 and May 2011 also have a ratio of 4:1 at least

So why do experts think EB2-I will race past EB3-I in the near future ?

Worst/Best case scenario is EB2-I and EB3-I will keep moving ahead at same pace.

Am I missing something here?

I don't think the ratio is 4:1. Its probably lesser than that due to downgrading.

[qesehmk]

I understand that Vertical spillovers will be more for EB2 and EB3 will only Horizontal spillover.

But the number of applicants in EB2-I and EB3-I queue between January 2010 and May 2011 also have a ratio of 4:1 at least

So why do experts think EB2-I will race past EB3-I in the near future ?

Worst/Best case scenario is EB2-I and EB3-I will keep moving ahead at same pace.

Am I missing something here?

inspired - I have done this for a living and I can tell you with certainty that modelling this has been incredibly difficult because of the sensitivity of the forecasting model.

Ever heard of chaos theory - the proverbial butterfly in pacific causing storm half way across the world?

The forecasting of backlog reduction is - although not as bad - but is quite bad. The reason is very simple - the demand and is huge and supply is limited. So any tiny variations on the demand side can make one queue move faster than other quite easily.

I know this does not help you get exact answer you are looking for. But at least it tells you that any answer you get from anybody is going to be unreliable.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I understand that Vertical spillovers will be more for EB2 and EB3 will only Horizontal spillover.

But the number of applicants in EB2-I and EB3-I queue between January 2010 and May 2011 also have a ratio of 4:1 at least

So why do experts think EB2-I will race past EB3-I in the near future ?

Worst/Best case scenario is EB2-I and EB3-I will keep moving ahead at same pace.

Am I missing something here?

Yeah it looks like they will keep pace with each other with EB3 running a few months ahead until May 2011. After May 2011, there are going to be thousands of downgrades to EB3 until Jan 1-2015, so it's going to be a muddled mess with people jumping back and forth between queues depending on what is more advantageous at that point of time. But at least people through the end of 2014 will be free agents in a couple of months and will no longer be tied to their employers and situations. They will happily take that compared to the 2009-2010 folks who have waited an agonizingly long time.

[bangaloreboy]

Hello All,
Sorry to hijack a very lively thread, but I have question and wasnt sure which thread to post to:
Situation: Wife, who is on H1, is coming off long term disability, is putting in her papers and applying for H4 COS this week.
Since she has been getting disability checks, would it become a problem when these checks are submitted to USCIS along with I-539 application (as proof of employment)?
My GC attorney suggested we dont submit them and see what happens! In any other situation I would have said lol, but this is a bit pressing. Maybe he makes sense? what do you guys think?
Really appreciate your thoughts and do move this post where you deem fit. Thanks!

[qesehmk]

Hello All,
Sorry to hijack a very lively thread, but I have question and wasnt sure which thread to post to:
Situation: Wife, who is on H1, is coming off long term disability, is putting in her papers and applying for H4 COS this week.
Since she has been getting disability checks, would it become a problem when these checks are submitted to USCIS along with I-539 application (as proof of employment)?
My GC attorney suggested we dont submit them and see what happens! In any other situation I would have said lol, but this is a bit pressing. Maybe he makes sense? what do you guys think?
Really appreciate your thoughts and do move this post where you deem fit. Thanks!

I don't see any reason whatsoever to mention the LTD checks. Why? Because they are NOT government assistance. You have paid for that LTD through your paycheck. And when the event happened you cashed your benefit. So I think your lawyer is right.

[bangaloreboy]

I don't see any reason whatsoever to mention the LTD checks. Why? Because they are NOT government assistance. You have paid for that LTD through your paycheck. And when the event happened you cashed your benefit. So I think your lawyer is right.

Thanks Q for your response,
I-539 has a section that asks if you were employed since last admitted or granted an extension or CoS and to provide weekly income details and such.
Since your latest pay were all LTD checks, should we or shouldn’t submit them as proof of employment but on LTD?
If it’s part of your employment benefits, which it is, is there a harm in submitting them?

[AceMan]

I understand that Vertical spillovers will be more for EB2 and EB3 will only Horizontal spillover.

But the number of applicants in EB2-I and EB3-I queue between January 2010 and May 2011 also have a ratio of 4:1 at least

So why do experts think EB2-I will race past EB3-I in the near future ?

Worst/Best case scenario is EB2-I and EB3-I will keep moving ahead at same pace.

Am I missing something here?

USCIS numbers.png

The above is a tweet which I got from here and it was shared by David J Bier.
For calculation take the full year for 2010 and 2011. EB2 has about 45,000 applicants for this period and 11,500 for EB3. Since this list was released in March 2020, we can be sure all these numbers would have started to be greened only from FY 2021.

I have been a strong proponent of short term gain for EB2. Lot of people think that I do that to mislead people because my date is Feb 2011 in EB3. I have no intention to correct or change the way people think about my vested interest in this. I would rather put the analysis and my interpretation here.

The Eb1 movement over the last one year is a very key factor in me hedging the bet on EB2 for FY 21. EB1 India due to the backlog had their demand halved from April 2018 to March 2020. Eb1 ROW got current around same time when embassies closed and it resulted in spillover getting applied to EB1 India and China from last quarter of 2020.

Eb3-ROW had some huge demand at the start of FY 2020 and it was backlogged just before corona induced shutdown happened. It was backlogged for the entire FY 20 since then and returned to current only in the beginning of FY21.

EB2-ROW was having a good demand through out 2020 and it was expected to have cut off some time before Corona and it did not happen. However the high demand ensure EB2 I got only the bare minimum by looking at the date movement.

For 2021, unlike any previous years for the exception of 2005 we are getting about 262,000 for EB. The motivation factor is this should be a massive windfall to Indian backlog with the consular closings till March, and absolutely no demand from world wide. As we have seen so far for 6 months EB1 is now current and there is no demand in this FY for this category. We have already seen even with a 4:1 demand EB2 I moved more than EB3 I in the March bulletin.

This intensity is expected to continue for next 3-4 months at about 4 months movement where I am expecting EB2 in July bulletin to reach May 2011. This should be the motivation for the EB2 guys, instead of trying to jump to EB3 thinking you are going to get your GC an hour before. You already waited more than a decade so just wait it out instead of going to lawyers who are filing 2nd I-485 and looting more money out of you.

[H1b2006]

before downgrading it is 15308:6677 for eb2:eb3 in 2010 , 6500 approx falls under eb2 May 2010 who will not downport, rest 9000 people atleast 6000 moved to EB3 it becomes 10000:12000 for 2010 EB2:EB3

[qesehmk]

Thanks Q for your response,
I-539 has a section that asks if you were employed since last admitted or granted an extension or CoS and to provide weekly income details and such.
Since your latest pay were all LTD checks, should we or shouldn’t submit them as proof of employment but on LTD?
If it’s part of your employment benefits, which it is, is there a harm in submitting them?

Ok - I thought you were thinking of volunteering the information. If there is a specific question asking you about your income then you should be truthful. Disability pay is considered income and so yes it should be included. Again it all depends how they have phrased the question. Are they asking for W2 income or generally any income?

In either case - I don't see how this can in any way be harmful. I know your lawyer doesn't recommend. So I am puzzled honestly. Why would a lawyer knowingly ask you to not answer a question truthfully?

My take is - disability is not public burden. You or your employer has paid insurance premiums or social security for it.

p.s. - LTD is basically an insurance and there is a contract that binds the provider and the beneficiary. So this is classic old contract law. Immigration status does not affect contract law. Honestly you would be paid LTD even if you were an illegal immigrant.

[texas_]

before downgrading it is 15308:6677 for eb2:eb3 in 2010 , 6500 approx falls under eb2 May 2010 who will not downport, rest 9000 people atleast 6000 moved to EB3 it becomes 10000:12000 for 2010 EB2:EB3

So do you think EB2 FA dates will cross EB3 this year?

I believe EB2 and EB3 would be always 4-6 months apart until they catch up May 2011 timeline and then will play TAG afterwards depending on no of individuals downport/interfile

[MeraNumber09]

Hello All,

Been a silent spectator for loong time now watching Q, spec, kanmani, idliman et all squaring off with civility and agreeing to disagree where they don't see eye to eye. This forum is worth its weight in gold. I lost my username/password and hence created a brand new one now. Hope to learn more and maybe share my 2 cents going forward. May we all be greened soon. Cheers!

I had a quick question to ask the gurus. My situation is as below:
EB2-I, Priority date: 2011/march/31.
485,131 765 - filed Oct 2020.
Any calculation when FA might reach 03/31/2011 ?

Thanks in advance! Mods - pls move to the appropriate forum once answered.

[vsivarama]

Here is a link that tells us the approved i-140 numbers for 2020.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q3_Q4.pdf

There is a sharp drop off from 2019 (144998) to 2020 (116685) in EB1/2/3 categories. If you subtract the numbers for India and China in EB2 and EB3 you get the ROW i140 numbers as 15827 in EB2 and 18893 in EB3. After factoring in the x2 multiplier, EB3I will probably only get the excess 34K of horizontal spillover if the trend continues in 2021, whereas potential horizontal spillover for EB2I will be 34K and some + Vertical Spillover. I believe people till May 2011 in EB2I should be in pretty good shape provided the numbers are not wasted.

[bangaloreboy]

Ok - I thought you were thinking of volunteering the information. If there is a specific question asking you about your income then you should be truthful. Disability pay is considered income and so yes it should be included. Again it all depends how they have phrased the question. Are they asking for W2 income or generally any income?

In either case - I don't see how this can in any way be harmful. I know your lawyer doesn't recommend. So I am puzzled honestly. Why would a lawyer knowingly ask you to not answer a question truthfully?

My take is - disability is not public burden. You or your employer has paid insurance premiums or social security for it.

p.s. - LTD is basically an insurance and there is a contract that binds the provider and the beneficiary. So this is classic old contract law. Immigration status does not affect contract law. Honestly you would be paid LTD even if you were an illegal immigrant.

USCIS asks for employer, weekly salary information (if applicant was employed prior to CoS to H4), which then has to be backed up with evidence like paystubs.
I agree with you that providing LTD income information is the right way to go and something that could be defended if it comes to that. Thanks again!

[qesehmk]

USCIS asks for employer, weekly salary information (if applicant was employed prior to CoS to H4), which then has to be backed up with evidence like paystubs.
I agree with you that providing LTD income information is the right way to go and something that could be defended if it comes to that. Thanks again!

Just to be clear LTD is not salary. It is benefit that is considered income. So again - it all depends on how the question is worded. I will say - just go ahead and use your best judgement - if USCIS has a problem you can always respond to their questions. All the best.

[inspired_p]

inspired - I have done this for a living and I can tell you with certainty that modelling this has been incredibly difficult because of the sensitivity of the forecasting model.

Ever heard of chaos theory - the proverbial butterfly in pacific causing storm half way across the world?

The forecasting of backlog reduction is - although not as bad - but is quite bad. The reason is very simple - the demand and is huge and supply is limited. So any tiny variations on the demand side can make one queue move faster than other quite easily.

I know this does not help you get exact answer you are looking for. But at least it tells you that any answer you get from anybody is going to be unreliable.

I know it's not easy to calculate with insufficient data. Thank you for your response. I was just wondering because EB3-I should leap frog ahead with only the horizontal spillover ( around 30 K) based on the whatever data we have. Also EB3 downgrades filled in oct 2020 might not have approved when the FAD gets current pushing the dates even further than what the calculation suggests. But this is all guesstimates.

[inspired_p]

USCIS numbers.png

The above is a tweet which I got from here and it was shared by David J Bier.
For calculation take the full year for 2010 and 2011. EB2 has about 45,000 applicants for this period and 11,500 for EB3. Since this list was released in March 2020, we can be sure all these numbers would have started to be greened only from FY 2021.

I have been a strong proponent of short term gain for EB2. Lot of people think that I do that to mislead people because my date is Feb 2011 in EB3. I have no intention to correct or change the way people think about my vested interest in this. I would rather put the analysis and my interpretation here.

The Eb1 movement over the last one year is a very key factor in me hedging the bet on EB2 for FY 21. EB1 India due to the backlog had their demand halved from April 2018 to March 2020. Eb1 ROW got current around same time when embassies closed and it resulted in spillover getting applied to EB1 India and China from last quarter of 2020.

Eb3-ROW had some huge demand at the start of FY 2020 and it was backlogged just before corona induced shutdown happened. It was backlogged for the entire FY 20 since then and returned to current only in the beginning of FY21.

EB2-ROW was having a good demand through out 2020 and it was expected to have cut off some time before Corona and it did not happen. However the high demand ensure EB2 I got only the bare minimum by looking at the date movement.

For 2021, unlike any previous years for the exception of 2005 we are getting about 262,000 for EB. The motivation factor is this should be a massive windfall to Indian backlog with the consular closings till March, and absolutely no demand from world wide. As we have seen so far for 6 months EB1 is now current and there is no demand in this FY for this category. We have already seen even with a 4:1 demand EB2 I moved more than EB3 I in the March bulletin.

This intensity is expected to continue for next 3-4 months at about 4 months movement where I am expecting EB2 in July bulletin to reach May 2011. This should be the motivation for the EB2 guys, instead of trying to jump to EB3 thinking you are going to get your GC an hour before. You already waited more than a decade so just wait it out instead of going to lawyers who are filing 2nd I-485 and looting more money out of you.

Thank you for your response.
I also agree that the EB2-I will benefit from vertical spillover along with the horizontal spillover while EB3-I will only get the horizontal spillover in 2020 and 2021 ( 2022 will be back to the grid )
But I think not all with PD before May 2011 would have had the opportunity ( same employer and employer willing) to downgrade so the downgrade % will be higher for people with PD after May 2011
This is just a guess again.

Also EB3-I and EB2-I both moved 3 months in the March bulletin, so EB2-I didnt move more than EB3-I

[inspired_p]

before downgrading it is 15308:6677 for eb2:eb3 in 2010 , 6500 approx falls under eb2 May 2010 who will not downport, rest 9000 people atleast 6000 moved to EB3 it becomes 10000:12000 for 2010 EB2:EB3

Thats 75% of people downgrading. I don't think thats a good estimate. as FD of May 2011 was current for EB2-I, not many would have the employer willing to downgrade the petition when 485 was possible to be applied without it.

[inspired_p]

Yeah it looks like they will keep pace with each other with EB3 running a few months ahead until May 2011. After May 2011, there are going to be thousands of downgrades to EB3 until Jan 1-2015, so it's going to be a muddled mess with people jumping back and forth between queues depending on what is more advantageous at that point of time. But at least people through the end of 2014 will be free agents in a couple of months and will no longer be tied to their employers and situations. They will happily take that compared to the 2009-2010 folks who have waited an agonizingly long time.

This is what I guess as well. EB3 to EB2 ratio will start getting to parity only for PDs between May 2011 and Jan 2015. Before May 2011 though there will be people downgrading it will not be mass exodus from EB2 to EB3

[Kesid23]

Immigration ban rescinded !! Wonder how this will affect the spillover ..

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-...amation-10014/

[AceMan]

Thank you for your response.
I also agree that the EB2-I will benefit from vertical spillover along with the horizontal spillover while EB3-I will only get the horizontal spillover in 2020 and 2021 ( 2022 will be back to the grid )
But I think not all with PD before May 2011 would have had the opportunity ( same employer and employer willing) to downgrade so the downgrade % will be higher for people with PD after May 2011
This is just a guess again.

Also EB3-I and EB2-I both moved 3 months in the March bulletin, so EB2-I didnt move more than EB3-I

The downgrades before May 2011 is very minimal. None of them have downgraded as real situation is very different from forum aggression/trolling.

EB2 moved from October 12th to January 15th. It is 3 days more than EB3 speed. Over the last 2 years it moved 1-2 days a bulletin.

[android09]

Immigration ban rescinded !! Wonder how this will affect the spillover ..

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-...amation-10014/

Only for family GC and Diversity lottery. Not for H1b, L1 and J visa. Those remain till March 31