EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[AlmostThere]

appreciate the response.....we both have the birth certificate but they are incomplete.....in my wife's case , her name is missing from the birth certificate and in my case the registration is 5 years after birth...

You can reach out to Indian consulate:
https://www.cgisf.gov.in/page/birth-...h-certificate/

[AlmostThere]

That's the million $ question whose answer even I am trying to predict.

My own gut feeling is EB3 FAD will stay ahead of EB2 FAD and movement of FAD will also be rapid ( 4-6 months at a time) for EB3 instead of 2-3 months for EB2.

I am putting my chances on EB3. Only time will tell if that will give faster FAD and GC.

Well as per the data from below, since 11/2010, 16 times(out of 120) EB3's PD was "ahead" of EB2 PD, so historically speaking - good chance that EB 2 PD will be ahead of EB3 PD in future - of course on an average. [ For 4 months EB2 PD was U, so technically its just 12 times] i.e. 10% chance that EB3 PD can remain "ahead" of EB3 PD .

https://www.immihelp.com/visa-bulletin-tracker/#

Sorry focussing on PD rather than FAD, as that what really is critical in the long run. Thanks!

[shriny]

Looks like Stimulus Bill 2.0 deal possible by next week, if immigration changes are passed without many changes, there is a real possibility of dates going back immediately?

Here is the section from the bill

ROLLOVER OF UNUSED VISAS.—
(A) IN GENERAL.—For fiscal years 2021 and 2022, the worldwide level of family-spon12 sored immigrants under subsection (c) of sec13 tion 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151), the worldwide level of em15 ployment-based immigrants under subsection (d) of such section, and the worldwide level of diversity immigrants under subsection (e) of such section shall each be increased by the number computed under subparagraph (B) with respect to each of such worldwide levels. (B) COMPUTATION OF INCREASE.—For
each of the worldwide levels described in sub23 paragraph (A), the number computed under this subparagraph is the difference (if any) be25 tween the worldwide level established for the

https://appropriations.house.gov/sit....9.28.1753.pdf

[GCWait2011]

Just a suggestion - For our case also the birth certificate does not contain the full name and birth certificate was registered in 2011. My immigration lawyer informed me to get an Affidavit from both parents or relatives.

[jimmys]

Just a suggestion - For our case also the birth certificate does not contain the full name and birth certificate was registered in 2011. My immigration lawyer informed me to get an Affidavit from both parents or relatives.

My birth certificate only had my first name and initials. I got the birth certificate issued only in 2008. I filed I-485 without submitting any affidavits and didn't receive any RFE for BC. In fact my lawyer was against submitting any affidavit for the birth certificate.

[cool_dude]

Is it worth taking 20-25k pay cut to be able to downgrade eb3? My priority date is May 25 2011
My old employer is willing to downgrade but it’s consulting firm. Right now I work for fortune 100 and they won’t downgrade

[Pundit Arjun]

Is it worth taking 20-25k pay cut to be able to downgrade eb3? My priority date is May 25 2011
My old employer is willing to downgrade but it’s consulting firm. Right now I work for fortune 100 and they won’t downgrade

Cool dude -
Do analyze all the pros and cons and if you believe it makes sense for your family and you, go ahead. If I were in your shoes and I don’t have the situation of kids aging out, I will not switch.
What is the urgency to get GC sooner by downgrading ? Is the squeeze worth the juice ?

[cool_dude]

Both my kids are us citizen..my only gain wife getting ead..she is working on h4ead..I have H1 renewal coming up in July..But now that they are offering premium processing for h4 ead it’s almost moot point

[vsivarama]

Guys, anyone knows if all i20s are required for 485? I am the primary applicant and I have all my docs in order establishing legal status. My wife came to US for University A and transferred to University B after first semester. We have i20 and all supporting docs since the transfer but unable to locate the first i20. Does anyone know what supporting documents can be used (like Transcripts etc?)

[bones20]

Looks like Stimulus Bill 2.0 deal possible by next week, if immigration changes are passed without many changes, there is a real possibility of dates going back immediately?

Here is the section from the bill



https://appropriations.house.gov/sit....9.28.1753.pdf

Is there a possibility they renege/reverse the October filing dates? (Has seen this happen for October 2015 bulletin but that happened on 09/25/2015 before it went effective).

[shriny]

Is there a possibility they renege/reverse the October filing dates? (Has seen this happen for October 2015 bulletin but that happened on 09/25/2015 before it went effective).

Not sure if anyone would know until the bill is passed and becomes a law, also how USCIS interprets the language.
But there is reason to be concerned and hence it is better for everyone to speed up their filing process

[iamdeb]

Hi Friends,

First of all congrats to everyone who are eligible to apply I-485 based on October 2020 Visa bulletin !!!

I have 3 year Bachelor degree followed by 3 years of PGDCA from India and filed my EB2-140 (under Masters +1 years experience) which got approved in 2011. I ported that again under EB2-140(under Masters +
3 years experience) with my current employer in 2016. Now based on the October 2020 Visa bulletin I'm eligible to file EB3-I140 and I-485 concurrently if I downgrade.

I want to know the recent trend how USCIS handling this type of downgrade ? USCIS raise the red flag and challenge the current EB2-PERM (because of my 3 year degree submitted in 2011 & 2016) and revoke it thereby ultimately revoking the EB2 approval and also deny my EB3-I140 downgrade ? which can put me in jeopardy of loosing my complete GC processing application and also cannot extend my H1B visa using I-140 going forward ??

Looking forward any help on this and any recent success/failures story will help me to decide.
Thanks!

[Positive]

Hi Friends,

First of all congrats to everyone who are eligible to apply I-485 based on October 2020 Visa bulletin !!!

I have 3 year Bachelor degree followed by 3 years of PGDCA from India and filed my EB2-140 (under Masters +1 years experience) which got approved in 2011. I ported that again under EB2-140(under Masters +
3 years experience) with my current employer in 2016. Now based on the October 2020 Visa bulletin I'm eligible to file EB3-I140 and I-485 concurrently if I downgrade.

I want to know the recent trend how USCIS handling this type of downgrade ? USCIS raise the red flag and challenge the current EB2-PERM (because of my 3 year degree submitted in 2011 & 2016) and revoke it thereby ultimately revoking the EB2 approval and also deny my EB3-I140 downgrade ? which can put me in jeopardy of loosing my complete GC processing application and also cannot extend my H1B visa using I-140 going forward ??

Looking forward any help on this and any recent success/failures story will help me to decide.
Thanks!

Your attorney will file a new I140 for EB3 and a concurrent I485 relying on the approved perm. This will not impact your previously approved eb2 I140 which will remain valid for H1B extensions or GC if the EB2 dates become current first under FAD.

[Positive]

What is this "amend" 140? I thought you just need to file another 140 in Eb3 using earlier PERM, your current Eb2 140 stays as is. And once yoour Eb3 140 is approved and if you feel the benefit, you can use that new 140 to interfile.

There are two ways to downgrade from EB2 to eb3—amending the EB2 I140 or filing a new standalone EB3 i140. The latter is the safer option and preserves the previous I140.

[H1b2006]

PD:2011 FEB, changed my employer in July, Prewailing wage Determination submitted on 0909 for Eb3.

[H1b2006]

Guys what do you think FAD will be for EB3 by Aug/Sept 2021

[rohanvus]

If not this FY next FY for sure your EB2 date will get current. If you have confidence on your H1B position you can wait for the next opportunity.

Thanks YT . My employer is an american firm and not too many H1s here - jobwise am fine with this company (been here for more than a decade now).

HR says downgrade is not possible - when i insisted that i will bear full cost for downgrade (if cost was of concern)HR turned it down saying 140 is employer petition so I must not pay anything

Btw , am concerned about retrogression - is there any scientific reason (in terms of available visas) that caused this latest movement ?
If this movement is phony then it will fiddle out in 1 month and we will see retrogression back to 2009 levels as earlier - if this happens then no chance to file 485 for for another 6/7 years .

Been in this country since 2007 , so yep 13+ years in US on H1

Regards

[bones20]

Thanks YT . My employer is an american firm and not too many H1s here - jobwise am fine with this company (been here for more than a decade now).

HR says downgrade is not possible - when i insisted that i will bear full cost for downgrade (if cost was of concern)HR turned it down saying 140 is employer petition so I must not pay anything

Btw , am concerned about retrogression - is there any scientific reason (in terms of available visas) that caused this latest movement ?
If this movement is phony then it will fiddle out in 1 month and we will see retrogression back to 2009 levels as earlier - if this happens then no chance to file 485 for for another 6/7 years .

Been in this country since 2007 , so yep 13+ years in US on H1

Regards

The forward movement is due to spillover from unused family visa pool and that happened since immigration from outside has been suspended due to covid. As per the law, they have reallocated unused family visas (150k+) towards employment categories. The law makers are already trying to reverse this (part of Heroes act). Regardless of the fate of Heroes act, the chances of this reversal are real down the line through other bills/lawsuits. The mechanism and implications of this reversal is anyone's guess.

TL;DR: The window of opportunity to file this month is real and it will close as soon as November. Everything else is subject to change anytime.

[newyorker123]

Need some advice.
My PD is 2012 July in EB2 category.
My old employer is asking me to join them back - only then they will consider filing an I140 under EB3 category.
Though not very keen, I am willing to join them, if I can get GC in around a year.
Is there any chance of 2012 July EB3 candidates getting GC within a year or so ?

[vsivarama]

Need some advice.
My PD is 2012 July in EB2 category.
My old employer is asking me to join them back - only then they will consider filing an I140 under EB3 category.
Though not very keen, I am willing to join them, if I can get GC in around a year.
Is there any chance of 2012 July EB3 candidates getting GC within a year or so ?

The movement would very much depend on the number of downgrades to EB3 and other factors like CP opening up and usage in EB3-ROW. The chances look bleak for FAD to move till July 2012 in FY 2021. We are talking of a movement of close to 2 years and 7 Months. Chances would definitely be higher in FY 2022 if the ROW demand remains relatively low and we get some additional spillover for 2022.

[Sebiswaiting]

Oct 2020 Visa bulletin expects eb3 FAD to be around Jan2015 by Sept 2021. And EB2 be at May2011 by Sept 2021.
As they won't have any idea on how many downgrade may happen, the EB3 date should change. Since your PD is July 2012 which is around 2.5 years prior to Jan2015, and just 1 year after May 2011, so I feel there is a real good chance that you will be eligible for GC in EB3 before a year from now.
EB3 and EB2 FAD movement in next 3 months will make a lot of things clearer.

Need some advice.
My PD is 2012 July in EB2 category.
My old employer is asking me to join them back - only then they will consider filing an I140 under EB3 category.
Though not very keen, I am willing to join them, if I can get GC in around a year.
Is there any chance of 2012 July EB3 candidates getting GC within a year or so ?

[iamdeb]

I am eligible to file I-485 with downgrade. I will have to goto India within next 6 months. I have my H1B petition approved till Mar 2023 but will have to get my visa stamped.
If i file I-485 this month, will it cause any issue with my AoS on my traveling to India. Should I apply for AP or should I apply for AP once I return back to USA.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I am eligible to file I-485 with downgrade. I will have to goto India within next 6 months. I have my H1B petition approved till Mar 2023 but will have to get my visa stamped.
If i file I-485 this month, will it cause any issue with my AoS on my traveling to India. Should I apply for AP or should I apply for AP once I return back to USA.

What did your attorney say?

[iamdeb]

What did your attorney say?

Havnt been able to talk to our company attorney yet...seems like he is busy with all the paperwork....hence checking here to see if anyone has any idea...

[nbk1976]

I am eligible to file I-485 with downgrade. I will have to goto India within next 6 months. I have my H1B petition approved till Mar 2023 but will have to get my visa stamped.
If i file I-485 this month, will it cause any issue with my AoS on my traveling to India. Should I apply for AP or should I apply for AP once I return back to USA.

You should not leave the country after filing the I-485 without having an approved AP. That was what I was told long ago by my lawyer. You don't have to use your AP to return, and can use a valid visa, but you will needlessly put your I-485 in jeopardy.