EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[LeoAugust]

With only 140,000 GC for entire category for the last 30 years, this problem is going to be extrapolated in the coming years. The recession of 2009-11 camouflaged the issue for some time, just like Covid pandemic from 2020 - 21,22. All these extra numbers is going to help max of people till the end of 2012.

So in the year 2027 you will have a Dec 2012 applicant as a citizen and a Jan 2014 applicant still on H1 if the demand is high for next 5 years after 2022.

EB green card numbers has to be raised to 250,000 and all the people with approved 140s given a one time GC to the tune of 1 million.

What is your opinion about Dec-2013 please? Where do you see they stand and benefit from the current spillover.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

What is your opinion about Dec-2013 please? Where do you see they stand and benefit from the current spillover.

Without pending inventory, it's going to be very difficult to estimate especially now that thousands have downgraded in the last few months. If someone wants to do something as far as imploring the admin is concerned, releasing the pending inventory would bring about much needed transparency and visibility into the case pipeline.

[AceMan]

What is your opinion about Dec-2013 please? Where do you see they stand and benefit from the current spillover.

You have 4 full years of data before it reaches 2013. Let me start with my outlook for FY 2021. EB2 I am hoping to move 3-4 months from April 2021 to July 2021. It has a good solid chance of reaching May 2011 by September 21. Eb3 I is hampered a little by residual Eb3 ROW demand which was backlogged last year around same time. But the low numbers in Eb3 I should give it one year movement to May 2011 in the July 21 bulletin. Any forward movement beyond that is unlikely because of downgraders.

With the visa issuance still restricted at foreign posts the chance of Family spilling over more than 150,000-175,000 to EB in 2022 is another windfall possibility. December 2013 filer should look for in October 21 bulletin for any advancement in FD for Eb2 and Eb3 then. If the pandemic situation is similar Eb2I is poised to do the movements done by Eb1 this fiscal year.

At that point these aayarams and gayarams who downgraded already will be requesting options on how to upgrade.

[usvisas]

Anyone knows why biometrics notices have been non-existent since Jan 1st 2021? There were just a few sent with ND of 1/23 - that is the best I have heard.

Is this expected to get better? If not, then, at this speed - not sure how much spillovers would actually be greened or wasted!!!

[H1b2006]

2011 May is definite for both EB2+EB3
2011 Dec will clear with 2021 FY SO and 2022 FY SO

2012 might have a chance but not sure for how far into 2012 with FY 2022 SO

Thats it, part of 2012 onwards it is another 10yrs wait

EB1 spillover is unlikely for 2023 FY as WITCH companies start clogging it again in a year or two.

[H1b2006]

2010,2011, part of 2012 are clearing bcause of Covid SO in FY 2021/FY2022
without it will take 10 yrs for 2010,10yrs for 2011 to clear, so on..

[vsivarama]

At that point these aayarams and gayarams who downgraded already will be requesting options on how to upgrade.

Thanks for the condescension. I gather you do NOT want people downgrading to EB3. Everyone will do what's best for them and your seething attitude is not going to stop them. I was EB2-I who downgraded in October and I have a leg to stand on here. I always welcomed upgrades from EB3 to EB2 (even to my detriment) as they freaking applied before me. EB1, EB2 or EB3 all are one and same for the most part. Not a lot of rocket scientists here... It's time we stopped treating our fellow brethren as our enemies.

[AceMan]

Thanks for the condescension. I gather you do NOT want people downgrading to EB3. Everyone will do what's best for them and your seething attitude is not going to stop them. I was EB2-I who downgraded in October and I have a leg to stand on here. I always welcomed upgrades from EB3 to EB2 (even to my detriment) as they freaking applied before me. EB1, EB2 or EB3 all are one and same for the most part. Not a lot of rocket scientists here... It's time we stopped treating our fellow brethren as our enemies.

I predicted that if we get 150,000-175,000 spill over for 2022 Eb2I will be biggest beneficiary if pandemic related restrictions are still present and how it can impact a December 2013 filer and how the thread questions will be after the October 2021.

Just because you welcome other people to do something crazy does not mean that I should agree to that.

[EB2IndSep09]

Anyone knows why biometrics notices have been non-existent since Jan 1st 2021? There were just a few sent with ND of 1/23 - that is the best I have heard.

Is this expected to get better? If not, then, at this speed - not sure how much spillovers would actually be greened or wasted!!!

I am yet to receive the receipt number for AOS filings done from last week of Oct 2020 along with hundreds and hundreds of my colleagues. People are breaking their heads figuring when they would receive receipt numbers.
My law firm response is "As of last week, USCIS estimates there are still 415,000 cases which have not yet been receipted at the Dallas Lockbox center".

Good luck figuring why biometric appointments are not generated and when these hundreds of thousands of people are going to be greened

[usvisas]

Good luck figuring why biometric appointments are not generated and when these hundreds of thousands of people are going to be greened

Yea, thats my point too. Though note that those 400K needs to be divided by 3 or something as they include different forms (I-485, I-765, I-131) for the same individual. Still massive, but I guess we'll know accurate number in a month or so.

[redtogreen]

Hi all, did anyone from TSC with PDs in 2010 receive RFE? I am only reading about folks from NSC on Trackitt. I haven't received a single RFE till date. Is this the case with others from TSC who filed in 2012? I am concerned that some of our files are just packed up somewhere in the dust.

[phkb2020]

Hi all, did anyone from TSC with PDs in 2010 receive RFE? I am only reading about folks from NSC on Trackitt. I haven't received a single RFE till date. Is this the case with others from TSC who filed in 2012? I am concerned that some of our files are just packed up somewhere in the dust.

Feb 2010 priority date application with TSC. No RFEs since our 2012 application. I changed jobs in 2012 (after 180 day mark) and filed AC21 notification. Supp J was not a thing at that time. I keep thinking whether I should just file Supp J now (without waiting for RFE) just to bump the file.

[bones20]

Hi Guys - I have an AC21 related question:
- Lets say your i485 has been pending (waiting for FAD to be current) for more than 180 days in eb2 category and your PD becomes current in FAD chart in eb3 category. At that time, the employer can file a downgrade to eb3 by filing a new i140 with eb2 PERM. Can you change job right away after filing the downgrade and do ac21 porting with new employer in eb3 category or do you need to wait for eb3 i140 to be approved? (The reason to do this is to avoid the wait with previous employer for i140 approval, GC approval, post GC stay)

thank you!

[old_monk]

Hi Guys - I have an AC21 related question:
- Lets say your i485 has been pending (waiting for FAD to be current) for more than 180 days in eb2 category and your PD becomes current in FAD chart in eb3 category. At that time, the employer can file a downgrade to eb3 by filing a new i140 with eb2 PERM. Can you change job right away after filing the downgrade and do ac21 porting with new employer in eb3 category or do you need to wait for eb3 i140 to be approved? (The reason to do this is to avoid the wait with previous employer for i140 approval, GC approval, post GC stay)

thank you!

I think you need to wait for new I140 to get approved. If your 140 is not approved, your eb3 485 petition will not be valid. You can do premium processing though(not sure how premium processing works in these cases though).
Gurus, in this case, will the wait period of 180 day be applicable to eb3 petition as well i.e. stay with current employer for 180 days after EB3 I140/ 485 is filed concurrently. I am asking this as I am also planning to follow the same steps as bones20 .

[bones20]

I think you need to wait for new I140 to get approved. If your 140 is not approved, your eb3 485 petition will not be valid. You can do premium processing though(not sure how premium processing works in these cases though).
Gurus, in this case, will the wait period of 180 day be applicable to eb3 petition as well i.e. stay with current employer for 180 days after EB3 I140/ 485 is filed concurrently. I am asking this as I am also planning to follow the same steps as bones20 .

- Premium for i140 can only be filed first time when you have a physical copy of PERM approval. It seems though you can request premium after receiving the receipt:
https://www.kamalalaw.com/process-to...ngrade-premium
- My use case is that the eb2 i485 has already been filed. My understanding is that for the downgrade, the only thing that needs to be filed is a new i140 for eb3 (no new/additional i485). Ref:
https://www.kamalalaw.com/process-to...th-485-pending

A new approved I-140 under EB-3 category will be transferred to the service center where I-485 is currently pending and no new fee is required.

[sjayanthi]

Hi All, excited to see predictions for EB2 2011 cases by end of FY2021. I have a tricky question: I am currently outside USA on a international assignment with the same employer (I have approved I140 with this employer). My original PD is April 2011. Now as I plan to return to US later in the year, I have two options 1) to move to location B (where I plan to settle down) and use EB1 ; 2) potentially go to location A where my PERM and I 140 were filed and use EB2. Considering I need a new H1B to come to US (which will be filed in next few weeks) and any change in location will trigger a amendment, was wondering if someone can guide me on which location to chose from. Additionally, EB1 C I 140 timelines are all over the place (6 months to a year and there is no AC21 without I 140 approval) so if EB2 becomes current I would prefer to use it (saves everyone some filing fees). Is it possible for my employer to file for I 485 even if I work from location B? I can work from location A as well once I get my EAD but want to avoid amendements.

[tenyearsgone]

Thanks for the condescension. I gather you do NOT want people downgrading to EB3. Everyone will do what's best for them and your seething attitude is not going to stop them. I was EB2-I who downgraded in October and I have a leg to stand on here. I always welcomed upgrades from EB3 to EB2 (even to my detriment) as they freaking applied before me. EB1, EB2 or EB3 all are one and same for the most part. Not a lot of rocket scientists here... It's time we stopped treating our fellow brethren as our enemies.

Agreed. Do what's in your best interest and react to data as it becomes available. Everyone's situation is different and there's no need to judge them. Downgrade/Upgrade - do it when it is feasible and don't hold your career back for GC.
As someone else pointed out, a few months of difference in 2009 PDs has been life changing for folks on either side of Apr 2009. Same goes for Apr 2010. After 10-20 years of wait even a few months extra can be really painful to some folks due to the stress built up over time while other folks are able to deal with it better.

[old_monk]

- Premium for i140 can only be filed first time when you have a physical copy of PERM approval. It seems though you can request premium after receiving the receipt:
https://www.kamalalaw.com/process-to...ngrade-premium
- My use case is that the eb2 i485 has already been filed. My understanding is that for the downgrade, the only thing that needs to be filed is a new i140 for eb3 (no new/additional i485). Ref:
https://www.kamalalaw.com/process-to...th-485-pending

Thanks, wasn't aware of these. I am in the same situation as you. Lets see what the future holds.

[bluelabel]

I got an RFE on my I-485 and they asked the following -

1. Please submit an updated form G-325A.
2. Please submit an evidence of employment authorization since Jan of 2019. (Maybe because I had already submitted EADs till 2018 during 2018 RFE response)
3. Supplement J
4. Please submit a copy of the biographic page of your currently valid passport which clearly shows your photo and name.
5. I-693 medical report.

I only found deferred action G325A in USCIS website. Is there any other G325A available? I also see that it's no longer required for I-485 but not sure why USCIS is asking for it.

[idliman]

I got an RFE on my I-485 and they asked the following -

1. Please submit an updated form G-325A.
2. Please submit an evidence of employment authorization since Jan of 2019. (Maybe because I had already submitted EADs till 2018 during 2018 RFE response)
3. Supplement J
4. Please submit a copy of the biographic page of your currently valid passport which clearly shows your photo and name.
5. I-693 medical report.

I only found deferred action G325A in USCIS website. Is there any other G325A available? I also see that it's no longer required for I-485 but not sure why USCIS is asking for it.

Congratulations on RFE. Are you in TSC or NSC? PD?

You are correct. There is only one G-325A form. Aliens used to file G-325A and citizens used to file G-325 (for finance GC). In the last iteration USCIS merged I-485 and G-325A together into one form. However, older applicants are required to update G-325A every few years. So it is a harmless RFE. But make sure that you complete every field including the last residence outside of USA.

[bluelabel]

Thanks for the reply. It's NSC and my PD is 03/02/2010.

[jackryan041815]

Hi all,

I am new to this forum, migrated here to give it a try from Trackitt. Was wondering what your predictions are for the end of this fiscal year. My priority date is EB-3 India April 2011

[inspired_p]

Thanks for the condescension. I gather you do NOT want people downgrading to EB3. Everyone will do what's best for them and your seething attitude is not going to stop them. I was EB2-I who downgraded in October and I have a leg to stand on here. I always welcomed upgrades from EB3 to EB2 (even to my detriment) as they freaking applied before me. EB1, EB2 or EB3 all are one and same for the most part. Not a lot of rocket scientists here... It's time we stopped treating our fellow brethren as our enemies.

I agree completely. I have ranted on this topic before as well, but companies have been known to file the application in EB3 even when the job and the candidate were eligible for EB2, solely stating that its company policy to do so and no-one raised any eyebrows to that practice. Anyways the PERM is what validates the job, I-140 is just a formality. PERM with job qualified for EB1,the I-140 can be applied in any of the three categories.

I have not downgraded my petition, but when i changed employers I had the option of EB2 or EB3 ( PERM job qualified for EB2), and I chose EB3, employer lawyers gave me that choice. I see nothing wrong in this and if required I don't see anything wrong if I have to upgrade my petition if my calculations are proven wrong.

Vilifying downgrades from EB2 is as obnoxious as vilifying EB3 -> EB2 upgrades

[inspired_p]

I got an RFE on my I-485 and they asked the following -

1. Please submit an updated form G-325A.
2. Please submit an evidence of employment authorization since Jan of 2019. (Maybe because I had already submitted EADs till 2018 during 2018 RFE response)
3. Supplement J
4. Please submit a copy of the biographic page of your currently valid passport which clearly shows your photo and name.
5. I-693 medical report.

I only found deferred action G325A in USCIS website. Is there any other G325A available? I also see that it's no longer required for I-485 but not sure why USCIS is asking for it.

Congratulations ! Thats a good positive sign for EB2-I given that your PD is in 03/2010.

[RVSree]

My Background
PD: Apr 2011 in EB2, 15+ years of H1B life
Status: Filed for AOS, EAD, AP in Oct-2020 and rec'd receipt# by Nov-2020, currently waiting for Biometrics appointment notice
H4 Child: My son is in college (freshmen)

I have a question, need some consultation:
Assuming USCIS utilize available SO for FY-2021, we will get our GC this year. If not, then I have to downgrade to EB-3 in order to avoid my son's potential age-out issue (2.5 years left). Since my employer is not supporting downgrade, I am exploring options to change job after 180 days. Wondering whether my new employer can file I-140 in EB-3 directly, i.e. without filing a new PERM based on AC-21 rule.