EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[AceMan]

regarding horizontal spillover. it looks like USCIS has been evenly distributing the unused visas from ROW equally to all backlogged countries (rather that putting everything to most backlogged). This will likely not help EBI, but still we should see a substancial horizontal spillover sometime this FY.

They have put all the numbers to clear Eb1 first as it should be according to the law. Both India and China have the same PD 1st Jan 20. It is expected to move 6 months in the next bulletins and current by April 21 bulletin. Once Eb1 is cleared the spill over numbers is expected to come over to EB2 I and give it much awaited push. 2-3 months of some rapid movement might get it to May 2010 by the end of 3rd quarter. Then in July 2021 the one year advancement of the final date for EB3 I, while Eb2 gets a decent push as well because it is getting both vertical and horizontal spill overs.

[rocketfast]

They have put all the numbers to clear Eb1 first as it should be according to the law. Both India and China have the same PD 1st Jan 20. It is expected to move 6 months in the next bulletins and current by April 21 bulletin. Once Eb1 is cleared the spill over numbers is expected to come over to EB2 I and give it much awaited push. 2-3 months of some rapid movement might get it to May 2010 by the end of 3rd quarter. Then in July 2021 the one year advancement of the final date for EB3 I, while Eb2 gets a decent push as well because it is getting both vertical and horizontal spill overs.

They may have given out numbers for EB1, but USCIS definitely has not approved EB1s overwhelmingly based on trackitt data for the last 4 months.

EB2: 101
EB3 = 124
EB1 = 62

(Unless, EB1 guys have enmasse moved away from trackitt to telegram)

https://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigra...ackers/i485-eb

[phkb2020]

They have put all the numbers to clear Eb1 first as it should be according to the law. Both India and China have the same PD 1st Jan 20. It is expected to move 6 months in the next bulletins and current by April 21 bulletin. Once Eb1 is cleared the spill over numbers is expected to come over to EB2 I and give it much awaited push. 2-3 months of some rapid movement might get it to May 2010 by the end of 3rd quarter. Then in July 2021 the one year advancement of the final date for EB3 I, while Eb2 gets a decent push as well because it is getting both vertical and horizontal spill overs.

Not doubting you, but could you please point me towards this law? As far as I know, EB1 only gets first dibs on rollups of EB4 and EB5 spillover. The family spillover has been distributed evenly according to respective EB quotas and horizontal spillovers should be applied at the same time across all categories.
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...its-FY2021.pdf

But, I won't be surprised if what you are predicting happens. It is baffling that EB1I seems to have gotten the benefit of horizontal spillovers being applied in Q1 & Q2 while EB2 and EB3 languish forever and hope and pray for max utilization in Q4.

[kumareb2]

is anyone renewed their EAD card recently? I got my EAD in 2012( EB2 Feb filing), and ever since the USCIS issued two years combo card, but this time they approved for one-year. is this new normal now?

[phkb2020]

is anyone renewed their EAD card recently? I got my EAD in 2012( EB2 Feb filing), and ever since the USCIS issued two years combo card, but this time they approved for one-year. is this new normal now?

We applied in May, approved in August after RFE for pics, got only one year approval. Friend and his spouse applied in Sept, approved in Nov end, one got one year EAD and another 2 year !

Usually, USCIS gave out 1 year renewals if they expected your dates to become current soon or were current when you applied. This year it seems to be all over the place.

[H1b2006]

They have put all the numbers to clear Eb1 first as it should be according to the law. Both India and China have the same PD 1st Jan 20. It is expected to move 6 months in the next bulletins and current by April 21 bulletin. Once Eb1 is cleared the spill over numbers is expected to come over to EB2 I and give it much awaited push. 2-3 months of some rapid movement might get it to May 2010 by the end of 3rd quarter. Then in July 2021 the one year advancement of the final date for EB3 I, while Eb2 gets a decent push as well because it is getting both vertical and horizontal spill overs.

Once EB3I moves 1 yr or so FAD might again get 6months push when 2022 fy so is applied.. by all mesns by fy 2022 eb3 will clear entire 2011. Eb2 will clear 2011 june.

[idliman]

is anyone renewed their EAD card recently? I got my EAD in 2012( EB2 Feb filing), and ever since the USCIS issued two years combo card, but this time they approved for one-year. is this new normal now?

Our RD was 15APR2020 and got approved around end of Aug 2020 (4.5 months). Myself and spouse both got 2 year approval. I had always asked for a 2 year approval in the cover letter and used "C09P". Don't know how how much it helps to bring to the attention of the AO that you are requesting a 2 year validity. But has not failed us yet.

[bluelabel]

is anyone renewed their EAD card recently? I got my EAD in 2012( EB2 Feb filing), and ever since the USCIS issued two years combo card, but this time they approved for one-year. is this new normal now?

I did renew in Aug 2020 and got it for 2 years. It's possible your PD could get current in next few months as i am seeing so many RFEs reported in Trackitt on I-485 for 2010 PDs. I too received a text yesterday for RFE on I-485 with 03/02/2010 PD.

[AceMan]

Not doubting you, but could you please point me towards this law? As far as I know, EB1 only gets first dibs on rollups of EB4 and EB5 spillover. The family spillover has been distributed evenly according to respective EB quotas and horizontal spillovers should be applied at the same time across all categories.
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...its-FY2021.pdf

But, I won't be surprised if what you are predicting happens. It is baffling that EB1I seems to have gotten the benefit of horizontal spillovers being applied in Q1 & Q2 while EB2 and EB3 languish forever and hope and pray for max utilization in Q4.

The rule is same for all categories. 7% allocation max for a country. However for Eb1 Row, it was current early in 2020 followed by closure due to pandemic resulting in windfall for Eb1 India. Eb2 and 3 had residual demands from ROW which is not letting for expanded allocation for India in both these categories while Eb1 India got exempted due to lack of demand from ROW there.

These are just logical deductions based on past actions and rule interpretation of how the spillover has to be applied. So it is a logical hope that Eb1 india gets current by 3rd quarter, and Eb2 I starts getting the numbers that can push it forward in 2021.

[kumareb2]

I did renew in Aug 2020 and got it for 2 years. It's possible your PD could get current in next few months as i am seeing so many RFEs reported in Trackitt on I-485 for 2010 PDs. I too received a text yesterday for RFE on I-485 with 03/02/2010 PD.

I got the RFE for medicals, SUPJ & Bio info, and my priority date is Dec 16, 2009

[19YRSNOGC]

I got the RFE for medicals, SUPJ & Bio info, and my priority date is Dec 16, 2009

I am hoping we all become current next month.I submitted my I485 /I485J first time in october 2020.
My PD is dec 24th 2009.My Dependent got RFE on jan29th not sure what it is, we just submitted medicals in last 4 months.

[smac1982]

I am hoping we all become current next month.I submitted my I485 /I485J first time in october 2020.
My PD is dec 24th 2009.My Dependent got RFE on jan29th not sure what it is, we just submitted medicals in last 4 months.

Hello Friends, I need your suggestion on my situation. I am on EAD, EB2 - Feb 2010 priority date. I recently got an RFE for SupJ and Medicals. My SUPJ was submitted in 2018 when I changed employers which was approved in 2019. Due to COVID restrictions, I opted for remote work which probably triggered SUPJ RFE. In this case, should I submit a new SUPJ or provide an explanation that no changes happened with my employment conditions or work locations (as my home and work are in the same geographic area, same county, etc). I would prefer to be safe and submit a new SUPJ but just wanted to check if anyone is or was in the same boat. My attorney is looking into it as well... Appreciate your help.

[bones20]

Hi Guys - I have one GC related questions (PD: 04/29/2010, Category: Eb2, i485 filing date: 10/28/2020, EAD/AP: Awaiting finger print notice):
- Can I leave my current employer right away after the "safe harbor" period (180 days post receipt date) begins without waiting for EAD/AP to come along? Will my new employer be able to file EAD/AP along with i485j?

thanks you!

[incredible]

Hello Friends, I need your suggestion on my situation. I am on EAD, EB2 - Feb 2010 priority date. I recently got an RFE for SupJ and Medicals. My SUPJ was submitted in 2018 when I changed employers which was approved in 2019. Due to COVID restrictions, I opted for remote work which probably triggered SUPJ RFE. In this case, should I submit a new SUPJ or provide an explanation that no changes happened with my employment conditions or work locations (as my home and work are in the same geographic area, same county, etc). I would prefer to be safe and submit a new SUPJ but just wanted to check if anyone is or was in the same boat. My attorney is looking into it as well... Appreciate your help.

New ask for Supplement J may have nothing to do with your work from home option. Now a days whole world is doing remote work anyway. It is just a confirmation that USCIS requires in preparation of advancing the dates to make sure you still are employed bonafide as is mentioned by your job description. Go ahead and submit new supplement J and not worry about anything else.

[incredible]

Hi Guys - I have one GC related questions (PD: 04/29/2010, Category: Eb2, i485 filing date: 10/28/2020, EAD/AP: Awaiting finger print notice):
- Can I leave my current employer right away after the "safe harbor" period (180 days post receipt date) begins without waiting for EAD/AP to come along? Will my new employer be able to file EAD/AP along with i485j?

thanks you!

If it is not really urgent, I would wait for receiving approved EAD before switching the job.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Hi Guys - I have one GC related questions (PD: 04/29/2010, Category: Eb2, i485 filing date: 10/28/2020, EAD/AP: Awaiting finger print notice):
- Can I leave my current employer right away after the "safe harbor" period (180 days post receipt date) begins without waiting for EAD/AP to come along? Will my new employer be able to file EAD/AP along with i485j?

thanks you!

You need some work authorization before you can start working with the new employer. How will you join the new employer without having an EAD or a H1 transfer? Filing a I-485 only puts you in a pending status so that you don't accrue unlawful presence, but you still need either EAD or a H1 I-94 to work for another employer.

[bones20]

You need some work authorization before you can start working with the new employer. How will you join the new employer without having an EAD or a H1 transfer? Filing a I-485 only puts you in a pending status so that you don't accrue unlawful presence, but you still need either EAD or a H1 I-94 to work for another employer.

join with h1b

[vsivarama]

Hi Guys - I have one GC related questions (PD: 04/29/2010, Category: Eb2, i485 filing date: 10/28/2020, EAD/AP: Awaiting finger print notice):
- Can I leave my current employer right away after the "safe harbor" period (180 days post receipt date) begins without waiting for EAD/AP to come along? Will my new employer be able to file EAD/AP along with i485j?

thanks you!

Looks like you are not a downgrade candidate so assuming your i140 was approved ages ago. Yes, you can safely move after 180 days on a H1 transfer. Your new employer will have to file i485J. EAD and AP are tied to you and your i485 petition and not your employer (unlike a H1b) . Your new employer does not need to refile your EAD and AP if you have already filed them.

[bones20]

Looks like you are not a downgrade candidate so assuming your i140 was approved ages ago. Yes, you can safely move after 180 days on a H1 transfer. Your new employer will have to file i485J. EAD and AP are tied to you and your i485 petition and not your employer (unlike a H1b) . Your new employer does not need to refile your EAD and AP if you have already filed them.

thank you!

[idliman]

Hi Guys - I have one GC related questions (PD: 04/29/2010, Category: Eb2, i485 filing date: 10/28/2020, EAD/AP: Awaiting finger print notice):
- Can I leave my current employer right away after the "safe harbor" period (180 days post receipt date) begins without waiting for EAD/AP to come along? Will my new employer be able to file EAD/AP along with i485j?

thanks you!

First make sure that you save copies of your PERM, I-485 receipt notice (i.e., Willy Wonka Golden Ticket) and I-140 (optional). Also get the copies your I-765/I-131 for later use. The PERM (SOC code and job description) will be of great help when you do AC21.

Count 180 days from received date and then initiate your H1B transfer. While getting the job offer / negotiations tell your future employer that they also need to do a AC21 / Supp J while doing the H1B transfer. My guess is you will get your EAD/AP within the 180 day period. Even if you transfer, EAD/AP is provided on the basis of a Pending I485. As long as I485 is pending you will get your EAD/AP. But if they are doing H1 transfer then no harm in staying with H1 status.

• Initial EAD/AP typically has a validity period of only 1 year. You can renew it 180 days in advance. Assuming that you get your EAD/AP around the 150+ days mark, then the new employer cannot apply for renewal immediately. You can do it yourself following the guidelines in our EAD/AP forum.
• If the expiry of the EAD/AP is within 180 days, then the new employer can file. I485 Supp J will get its own receipt number and approval. It helps to have a copy of your PERM.

Good Luck.

[bones20]

First make sure that you save copies of your PERM, I-485 receipt notice (i.e., Willy Wonka Golden Ticket) and I-140 (optional). Also get the copies your I-765/I-131 for later use. The PERM (SOC code and job description) will be of great help when you do AC21.

Count 180 days from received date and then initiate your H1B transfer. While getting the job offer / negotiations tell your future employer that they also need to do a AC21 / Supp J while doing the H1B transfer. My guess is you will get your EAD/AP within the 180 day period. Even if you transfer, EAD/AP is provided on the basis of a Pending I485. As long as I485 is pending you will get your EAD/AP. But if they are doing H1 transfer then no harm in staying with H1 status.

• Initial EAD/AP typically has a validity period of only 1 year. You can renew it 180 days in advance. Assuming that you get your EAD/AP around the 150+ days mark, then the new employer cannot apply for renewal immediately. You can do it yourself following the guidelines in our EAD/AP forum.
• If the expiry of the EAD/AP is within 180 days, then the new employer can file. I485 Supp J will get its own receipt number and approval. It helps to have a copy of your PERM.

Good Luck.

So far, I have had 3 perms filed with 3 different companies. None of these companies have ever shared Perm filings with me - all great, immigration friendly fortune 500 companies.

[idliman]

So far, I have had 3 perms filed with 3 different companies. None of these companies have ever shared Perm filings with me - all great, immigration friendly fortune 500 companies.

You have to sign in the PERM. So they should have provided you a copy, Right? Without that I would assume that your PERM matches your H1B SOC and job title. Our company setup has 99% citizens with some H1B's (lower single digits). So most of the time, we end up telling our HR what to do. But in IT space, I can guess that employers are very protective.

I am thinking ahead about how you are going to address the issue when you file AC21 job portability. AC21 needs a justification that the new job is in the "same or similar" category. I have seen people post that the new law firm has requested the files from old law firm. Not sure whether they will share PERM pages concerning a) SOC b) Job Title and c) Job Description. All I am thinking about is how to make your case successful with the best of available info.

Maybe others can give you a better idea of how to handle this in a diplomatic way.

Update: I looked at my ETA-9089 Form. It has section "L" alien declaration. So, you are eligible to get a copy of that form. Without looking at its contents how will you sign the firm?

[vsivarama]

So far, I have had 3 perms filed with 3 different companies. None of these companies have ever shared Perm filings with me - all great, immigration friendly fortune 500 companies.

You can apply a FOIA request (Freedom of Information Act) with USCIS. You can request them to send you the most recent copy of PERM and I140. It takes about 6-8 weeks for them to provide you with electronic copies. So I would recommend you create your service request ASAP. That's how I got my copies of PERM and i-140.

https://www.uscis.gov/records/reques...or-privacy-act

[bones20]

You can apply a FOIA request (Freedom of Information Act) with USCIS. You can request them to send you the most recent copy of PERM and I140. It takes about 6-8 weeks for them to provide you with electronic copies. So I would recommend you create your service request ASAP. That's how I got my copies of PERM and i-140.

https://www.uscis.gov/records/reques...or-privacy-act

thank you!

[bones20]

You have to sign in the PERM. So they should have provided you a copy, Right? Without that I would assume that your PERM matches your H1B SOC and job title. Our company setup has 99% citizens with some H1B's (lower single digits). So most of the time, we end up telling our HR what to do. But in IT space, I can guess that employers are very protective.

I am thinking ahead about how you are going to address the issue when you file AC21 job portability. AC21 needs a justification that the new job is in the "same or similar" category. I have seen people post that the new law firm has requested the files from old law firm. Not sure whether they will share PERM pages concerning a) SOC b) Job Title and c) Job Description. All I am thinking about is how to make your case successful with the best of available info.

Maybe others can give you a better idea of how to handle this in a diplomatic way.

Update: I looked at my ETA-9089 Form. It has section "L" alien declaration. So, you are eligible to get a copy of that form. Without looking at its contents how will you sign the firm?

thank you!